This team looks to have quit on Joe

[angryguy77]

I see no evidence of that.

The team was 7th in defense coming into OKC despite playing most of the year without their all-defense center. They were 2nd in offense despite shooting under 33% from three over the last 16ish games. The fundamentals are still there.

The most important issue right now is the three point shooting, its just completely fallen off a cliff. How many time's during these games has Scal gone "Okay, that was a good look. I'll take that" after a miss? like 3 times a game. The C's are still getting good shots, its just everybody has decided to start missing at the same time. I consider that mostly freakishly bad luck. I think the shooting will level out to somewhere between the first 22 and last 15 games.

Record when shooting <34% from 3: 5-9
Record when shooting >34% from 3: 21-3

All you have to do is not be terrible, league average is like 36% from three. Just shoot average and don't turn the ball over and the team will win.

That is how it goes when you live and die by the 3.  I would like to see the Celtics take less 3s (they are second behind GSW in 3PA).  Go to the hoop more, you get to the line more.  The Celtics are 22nd in FTA.  FTA lead to more consistent scoring, less fluctuation, less subject to chance.  I think this stems from not having any real inside presence, especially without RWill.  We are always going to be a team that takes a lot of 3s, that is fine, but you can do other things too.

Yes, this the refrain you hear quite often. But I think you sort of hit the point here. They don't really have the personnel to be a "punish the rim" team.

If it was just a matter of willing yourself to do it, every team would do it. those things are hard, they require a skill set that Boston doesn't have a lot of. They have one guy who gets to the line a lot in Tatum, one guy a moderate amount in Brown and almost nobody else who really does. Those two and Brogdon a little are the only guys who routinely beat people off the dribble at all.

The could put more pressure on the rim, its not clear to me that would lead to better outcomes given the personnel they have. They have a team designed to generate 3 point looks and guys who can hit that shot. They aren't hitting that shot. I know its boring but my analysis is this: They need to hit shots.

I would wager these guys didn't make it to the NBA by being one trick ponies.
You design plays for higher % shots. Not everything needs to be an attempted layup.

If this team is truly constructed the way you say, then Brad should be fired immediately for being a knucklehead.

The thing is, we were not like this last year. This is a coaching problem, not player.

[gouki88]

This team ranks first this season. Last year team was the best team after Feb 22. I prefer the last year team to the current one. I like strong defensive team.

This. I actually miss Udoka. I feel like if they played D like how they did last year, we’d be unstoppable.

You really are unbelievable with your hourly flip-flopping on which coach you're gushing over

[Kernewek]

I see no evidence of that.

The team was 7th in defense coming into OKC despite playing most of the year without their all-defense center. They were 2nd in offense despite shooting under 33% from three over the last 16ish games. The fundamentals are still there.

The most important issue right now is the three point shooting, its just completely fallen off a cliff. How many time's during these games has Scal gone "Okay, that was a good look. I'll take that" after a miss? like 3 times a game. The C's are still getting good shots, its just everybody has decided to start missing at the same time. I consider that mostly freakishly bad luck. I think the shooting will level out to somewhere between the first 22 and last 15 games.

Record when shooting <34% from 3: 5-9
Record when shooting >34% from 3: 21-3

All you have to do is not be terrible, league average is like 36% from three. Just shoot average and don't turn the ball over and the team will win.

That is how it goes when you live and die by the 3.  I would like to see the Celtics take less 3s (they are second behind GSW in 3PA).  Go to the hoop more, you get to the line more.  The Celtics are 22nd in FTA.  FTA lead to more consistent scoring, less fluctuation, less subject to chance.  I think this stems from not having any real inside presence, especially without RWill.  We are always going to be a team that takes a lot of 3s, that is fine, but you can do other things too.

Yes, this the refrain you hear quite often. But I think you sort of hit the point here. They don't really have the personnel to be a "punish the rim" team.

If it was just a matter of willing yourself to do it, every team would do it. those things are hard, they require a skill set that Boston doesn't have a lot of. They have one guy who gets to the line a lot in Tatum, one guy a moderate amount in Brown and almost nobody else who really does. Those two and Brogdon a little are the only guys who routinely beat people off the dribble at all.

The could put more pressure on the rim, its not clear to me that would lead to better outcomes given the personnel they have. They have a team designed to generate 3 point looks and guys who can hit that shot. They aren't hitting that shot. I know its boring but my analysis is this: They need to hit shots.

I would wager these guys didn't make it to the NBA by being one trick ponies.
You design plays for higher % shots. Not everything needs to be an attempted layup.

If this team is truly constructed the way you say, then Brad should be fired immediately for being a knucklehead.

The thing is, we were not like this last year. This is a coaching problem, not player.

Last year we were still in the absolute doldrums, and I seem to remember a few posters, yourself included, complaining about the undisciplined play back then as well.

[Vermont Green]

I see no evidence of that.

The team was 7th in defense coming into OKC despite playing most of the year without their all-defense center. They were 2nd in offense despite shooting under 33% from three over the last 16ish games. The fundamentals are still there.

The most important issue right now is the three point shooting, its just completely fallen off a cliff. How many time's during these games has Scal gone "Okay, that was a good look. I'll take that" after a miss? like 3 times a game. The C's are still getting good shots, its just everybody has decided to start missing at the same time. I consider that mostly freakishly bad luck. I think the shooting will level out to somewhere between the first 22 and last 15 games.

Record when shooting <34% from 3: 5-9
Record when shooting >34% from 3: 21-3

All you have to do is not be terrible, league average is like 36% from three. Just shoot average and don't turn the ball over and the team will win.

That is how it goes when you live and die by the 3.  I would like to see the Celtics take less 3s (they are second behind GSW in 3PA).  Go to the hoop more, you get to the line more.  The Celtics are 22nd in FTA.  FTA lead to more consistent scoring, less fluctuation, less subject to chance.  I think this stems from not having any real inside presence, especially without RWill.  We are always going to be a team that takes a lot of 3s, that is fine, but you can do other things too.

Yes, this the refrain you hear quite often. But I think you sort of hit the point here. They don't really have the personnel to be a "punish the rim" team.

If it was just a matter of willing yourself to do it, every team would do it. those things are hard, they require a skill set that Boston doesn't have a lot of. They have one guy who gets to the line a lot in Tatum, one guy a moderate amount in Brown and almost nobody else who really does. Those two and Brogdon a little are the only guys who routinely beat people off the dribble at all.

The could put more pressure on the rim, its not clear to me that would lead to better outcomes given the personnel they have. They have a team designed to generate 3 point looks and guys who can hit that shot. They aren't hitting that shot. I know its boring but my analysis is this: They need to hit shots.

I agree and conceded this.  I don't mind that they take a lot of 3s and I think it is good that they are a team constructed to make a lot of 3s.  I just want them to have a little more versatility, not be quite so one dimensional.

[Goldstar88]

This team ranks first this season. Last year team was the best team after Feb 22. I prefer the last year team to the current one. I like strong defensive team.

This. I actually miss Udoka. I feel like if they played D like how they did last year, we’d be unstoppable.

You really are unbelievable with your hourly flip-flopping on which coach you're gushing over

Welcome back, Gouki. 

[gouki88]

This team ranks first this season. Last year team was the best team after Feb 22. I prefer the last year team to the current one. I like strong defensive team.

This. I actually miss Udoka. I feel like if they played D like how they did last year, we’d be unstoppable.

You really are unbelievable with your hourly flip-flopping on which coach you're gushing over

Welcome back, Gouki. 

Christmas + sorting out an interstate move has me very busy. But not too busy to ignore that!

[SHAQATTACK]

I’m not EVEN going outside today

Chicken Little

That way the sky won't fall on your head at least 

I’m planning a jail break for Coach Udoka

Anyone with me 

[MarcusSmartFanClub]

I see no evidence of that.

The team was 7th in defense coming into OKC despite playing most of the year without their all-defense center. They were 2nd in offense despite shooting under 33% from three over the last 16ish games. The fundamentals are still there.

The most important issue right now is the three point shooting, its just completely fallen off a cliff. How many time's during these games has Scal gone "Okay, that was a good look. I'll take that" after a miss? like 3 times a game. The C's are still getting good shots, its just everybody has decided to start missing at the same time. I consider that mostly freakishly bad luck. I think the shooting will level out to somewhere between the first 22 and last 15 games.

Record when shooting <34% from 3: 5-9
Record when shooting >34% from 3: 21-3

All you have to do is not be terrible, league average is like 36% from three. Just shoot average and don't turn the ball over and the team will win.

That is how it goes when you live and die by the 3.  I would like to see the Celtics take less 3s (they are second behind GSW in 3PA).  Go to the hoop more, you get to the line more.  The Celtics are 22nd in FTA.  FTA lead to more consistent scoring, less fluctuation, less subject to chance.  I think this stems from not having any real inside presence, especially without RWill.  We are always going to be a team that takes a lot of 3s, that is fine, but you can do other things too.

Yes, this the refrain you hear quite often. But I think you sort of hit the point here. They don't really have the personnel to be a "punish the rim" team.

If it was just a matter of willing yourself to do it, every team would do it. those things are hard, they require a skill set that Boston doesn't have a lot of. They have one guy who gets to the line a lot in Tatum, one guy a moderate amount in Brown and almost nobody else who really does. Those two and Brogdon a little are the only guys who routinely beat people off the dribble at all.

The could put more pressure on the rim, its not clear to me that would lead to better outcomes given the personnel they have. They have a team designed to generate 3 point looks and guys who can hit that shot. They aren't hitting that shot. I know its boring but my analysis is this: They need to hit shots.

I would wager these guys didn't make it to the NBA by being one trick ponies.
You design plays for higher % shots. Not everything needs to be an attempted layup.

If this team is truly constructed the way you say, then Brad should be fired immediately for being a knucklehead.

The thing is, we were not like this last year. This is a coaching problem, not player.

Last year we were still in the absolute doldrums, and I seem to remember a few posters, yourself included, complaining about the undisciplined play back then as well.

Zebras don’t change their stripes. This thread is multiple pages long, so I guess the OP achieved his goal?

[GreenlyGreeny]

This team ranks first this season. Last year team was the best team after Feb 22. I prefer the last year team to the current one. I like strong defensive team.

This. I actually miss Udoka. I feel like if they played D like how they did last year, we’d be unstoppable.

You really are unbelievable with your hourly flip-flopping on which coach you're gushing over

What can I say other than I love D? If we’re not winning, we better be losing with good D. It’s utterly embarrassing losing a game in which OKC scores 150. I’m getting vibes that Mazz is cracking and/or support among the players for him is cracking. If they love Udoka and want him back and that’s what it’s going to take to get back to having the best D in the league, let’s do it. Surely Udoka didn’t do anything bad enough to jeopardize a championship over?

[tenn_smoothie]

Joe doesn’t preach the same things Udoka did. They will live and die by the 3 this year.

Agreed. 

What bothers me most about Mazzulla is his stubbornness. Just hits the same "play" button over and over without adjustments and without coaching the team back to what works for them - ball & player movement, less 3's and tougher defense.
Have we seen any trends towards playing defense as they did last season ?

It's not only the fact that we lose to inferior teams - we get blown out in ways and by amounts I have never seen before.
How does the best record in the league get outscored by 19 points in one quarter by a western conference bottom feeder ?

Joe stands over there like a deer in headlights, chewing his gum and looking lost.
I wonder if what is going thru his mind at such times is, " Man, I am in way over my head. I have no idea what to say to these guys during breaks and timeouts to improve their performance. I shoulda never taken this gig."

[tenn_smoothie]

The sky isn't falling, but we've lost 7 of our last 12.  That run of sustained mediocrity is worrisome.

As I've said elsewhere this just seems like regression to the mean.  Boston wasn't as good as it started the year, it was only natural it would come back to where it should be.

I think I've mentioned this before, but regression to the mean doesn't mean a wildly successful sequence, followed by a very poor (as in worst offense in the NBA) portion of the season over a lengthy period.

Regression to the mean simply means that if there is an extreme outcome, future outcomes are more likely to be less extreme, more in line with a team's expected outcomes. 

This team is susceptible to wild swings in performance for sustained periods of time.  They play extremely well for 20 games, and then poorly for 12.  That's not how regression statistics work.  Something else is at play, whether it be coaching, injuries, focus, strength of schedule, fatigue, effort, etc., etc.

Thank You for explaining this.
Regression is not all-of-the-sudden shooting in the 20% range for 3's.
It is not about giving up huge amounts of points to mediocre-to-bad teams.
It is not about starting the season with ESPN calling you a historic offensive team and then losing games by 30+ points.

Yes, I get the long season and the tired legs and the focus fatigue and performance lulls inevitable in an 82-game season.
But going from such high extremes to sudden low extremes tells me their poor play is about something else.

[Kernewek]

The sky isn't falling, but we've lost 7 of our last 12.  That run of sustained mediocrity is worrisome.

As I've said elsewhere this just seems like regression to the mean.  Boston wasn't as good as it started the year, it was only natural it would come back to where it should be.

I think I've mentioned this before, but regression to the mean doesn't mean a wildly successful sequence, followed by a very poor (as in worst offense in the NBA) portion of the season over a lengthy period.

Regression to the mean simply means that if there is an extreme outcome, future outcomes are more likely to be less extreme, more in line with a team's expected outcomes. 

This team is susceptible to wild swings in performance for sustained periods of time.  They play extremely well for 20 games, and then poorly for 12.  That's not how regression statistics work.  Something else is at play, whether it be coaching, injuries, focus, strength of schedule, fatigue, effort, etc., etc.

What it is, is the standard deviation in their performances is quite high. They don't have that level of consistency of performance. Some days they are awesome, others they are terrible. I think it's just a reflection of the fact that barring a couple of our guys, the rest aren't quite at that level where they have a consistently high level of performance. Al and GWill are good examples - some days Al is Amazing Al, he gives us 18 points 10 rebounds and a high level of defense, then the next he scores 2 points on 1 shot and has 2 rebounds. Same with Gwill. With Al it's probably age, with GWill it's probably youth and specific situations he's put in in games, but that's why we have those deviations. I think overall the team's ceiling is still pretty high though. It's playing the regular season and going through those ups and downs that will (hopefully) let them figure out how to put that effort in consistently as a team.

This is a good post, and coupled with bdm's post & Moranis's note about streaks in sports, it feels like the looming eye of the small sample size Kraken starts to become more obvious from the deep.


As for the threes, I understand people's aesthetic preferences may differ, but when you have Golden State [defending champions] and Boston [fresh off a finals appearance] ranked no. 1 and no. 2 in the league for 3PA this season with largely the same rosters, perhaps there's something that these teams know that might be worth paying attention to?

[cman88]

I would've thought this team learned. But it's the same every year. Play down to the competition. A win against the bucks or nets in the regular season is the same against OKC or some other trash team.

Why this team still believes they can waltz in and beat a team with no effort just on talent alone baffles me.

I expect a totally different effort against the Mavs tonight. It's totally about the competition they face.

[Moranis]

The sky isn't falling, but we've lost 7 of our last 12.  That run of sustained mediocrity is worrisome.

As I've said elsewhere this just seems like regression to the mean.  Boston wasn't as good as it started the year, it was only natural it would come back to where it should be.

I think I've mentioned this before, but regression to the mean doesn't mean a wildly successful sequence, followed by a very poor (as in worst offense in the NBA) portion of the season over a lengthy period.

Regression to the mean simply means that if there is an extreme outcome, future outcomes are more likely to be less extreme, more in line with a team's expected outcomes. 

This team is susceptible to wild swings in performance for sustained periods of time.  They play extremely well for 20 games, and then poorly for 12.  That's not how regression statistics work.  Something else is at play, whether it be coaching, injuries, focus, strength of schedule, fatigue, effort, etc., etc.

What it is, is the standard deviation in their performances is quite high. They don't have that level of consistency of performance. Some days they are awesome, others they are terrible. I think it's just a reflection of the fact that barring a couple of our guys, the rest aren't quite at that level where they have a consistently high level of performance. Al and GWill are good examples - some days Al is Amazing Al, he gives us 18 points 10 rebounds and a high level of defense, then the next he scores 2 points on 1 shot and has 2 rebounds. Same with Gwill. With Al it's probably age, with GWill it's probably youth and specific situations he's put in in games, but that's why we have those deviations. I think overall the team's ceiling is still pretty high though. It's playing the regular season and going through those ups and downs that will (hopefully) let them figure out how to put that effort in consistently as a team.

This is a good post, and coupled with bdm's post & Moranis's note about streaks in sports, it feels like the looming eye of the small sample size Kraken starts to become more obvious from the deep.


As for the threes, I understand people's aesthetic preferences may differ, but when you have Golden State [defending champions] and Boston [fresh off a finals appearance] ranked no. 1 and no. 2 in the league for 3PA this season with largely the same rosters, perhaps there's something that these teams know that might be worth paying attention to?

And Dallas is 3rd and they were a final 4 team last year also.  Even the Heat are 8th and their 2 best players don't exactly shoot a bunch of 3 pointers (Butler 2.2 a game and Bam 0.3 a game - so 2.5 combined).  The 3 point shot has taken over basketball.  That is just the new reality.

[ozgod]

I would've thought this team learned. But it's the same every year. Play down to the competition. A win against the bucks or nets in the regular season is the same against OKC or some other trash team.

Why this team still believes they can waltz in and beat a team with no effort just on talent alone baffles me.

I expect a totally different effort against the Mavs tonight. It's totally about the competition they face.

It’s not just this team though, it’s all teams in the league. Every top team has gotten thrashed by some bottom feeder and the fan base has flagellated itself as a result.