Post-PHX slump: Is it the players, coaching, or random regression? (Blame Mazz)

[jpotter33]

It's hard to blame this on JB.  The entire team quit hitting its shots. 

I didn't like this quote from Mazzulla, though: 

“I like the shots that we got,” he explained. “You don’t adjust your approach.”

That seems to be Mazz's philosophy for everything.  It's starting to look like a George Constanza approach.  Mazz doesn't call time outs.  He doesn't believe in adjusting in-game.  He doesn't get the team fired up in timeouts.  He's not great at calling plays out of timeouts.  He mostly just stares straight ahead and chews gum.  What actual coaching does he believe in?

Good coaches, and teams, do in fact adjust their approach when things aren't working.

It's particularly concerning when you consider that the shots we're getting are not all that good and the players have adjusted their approach by no longer pushing the ball up the floor fast and no longer moving the ball.

Yeah, this is what I was thinking, too. Sure, we missed some wide open shots today and the last few games, but we've also taken a lot bad, contested threes that were going in earlier in the season.

We were always going to regress somewhat in the shooting; the question is just how much. It seems like Joe doesn't really see the regression as inevitable and thinks we're always going to be hitting those kinds of difficult shots as part of his philosophy, which is worrisome.

[freshinthehouse]

It may be time to call Minnesota, Indiana, Brooklyn and others to see if JB for KAT, or JB for Haliburton, or JB for Durant, is a possibility.

If you are looking for winning basketball players, look elsewhere than KAT.  He has consistently wilted in big moments.  Pretty much every Wolves fan that I would know would prolly trade JB for KAT straight up at this point. 

[Kernewek]

More like regression to the mean. 

Bingo. It's very rare to watch a team through an entire season and not see dips - regardless of how good they are. Remember to try and see the forest for the trees. We've lost 9 games this season.

[timpiker]

They've been reading their press clippings and think they can skate because they are all so great.  If 3's aren't falling drive to the basket.  At least that's what smart players would do. 

[Roy H.]

They've been reading their press clippings and think they can skate because they are all so great.  If 3's aren't falling drive to the basket.  At least that's what smart players would do.

I agree with you that a change in strategy is needed when things aren't working.  Good teams adjust to different defenses, to cold shooting, etc.

But, we've been the worst offense in the NBA over the last six games, and our coach is preaching no adjustments.  I'm puzzled by that.

[slamtheking]

They've been reading their press clippings and think they can skate because they are all so great.  If 3's aren't falling drive to the basket.  At least that's what smart players would do.

I agree with you that a change in strategy is needed when things aren't working.  Good teams adjust to different defenses, to cold shooting, etc.

But, we've been the worst offense in the NBA over the last six games, and our coach is preaching no adjustments.  I'm puzzled by that.

it does beg the question --> does he HAVE any other ideas on how to run an offense?   his philosophy on D has been different than Udoka's and not for the better by any means.  his philosophy on offense looked great when the team was hitting 3's at a ridiculous clip but looks absolutely awful when those 3's aren't falling.  having half our shots come from the 3 point line is not a sound offensive strategy regardless of whether they're falling or not.

[GetLucky]

They've been reading their press clippings and think they can skate because they are all so great.  If 3's aren't falling drive to the basket.  At least that's what smart players would do.

I agree with you that a change in strategy is needed when things aren't working.  Good teams adjust to different defenses, to cold shooting, etc.

But, we've been the worst offense in the NBA over the last six games, and our coach is preaching no adjustments.  I'm puzzled by that.

it does beg the question --> does he HAVE any other ideas on how to run an offense?   his philosophy on D has been different than Udoka's and not for the better by any means.  his philosophy on offense looked great when the team was hitting 3's at a ridiculous clip but looks absolutely awful when those 3's aren't falling.  having half our shots come from the 3 point line is not a sound offensive strategy regardless of whether they're falling or not.

This is silly. The C's are 8th in the league in D-Rating and climbing. The offense is *still* 1st in the league. Variance happens. It just so happens to be swinging hard in both directions so far.

[footey]

My biggest takeaway is that we struggle the most against teams who outsize us and/or are more physical.  We can adjust to the physicality, but am concerned that we are not a long team.  Trend seems to be headed in this direction, especially among the younger, rebuilding teams. 

[Roy H.]

They've been reading their press clippings and think they can skate because they are all so great.  If 3's aren't falling drive to the basket.  At least that's what smart players would do.

I agree with you that a change in strategy is needed when things aren't working.  Good teams adjust to different defenses, to cold shooting, etc.

But, we've been the worst offense in the NBA over the last six games, and our coach is preaching no adjustments.  I'm puzzled by that.

it does beg the question --> does he HAVE any other ideas on how to run an offense?   his philosophy on D has been different than Udoka's and not for the better by any means.  his philosophy on offense looked great when the team was hitting 3's at a ridiculous clip but looks absolutely awful when those 3's aren't falling.  having half our shots come from the 3 point line is not a sound offensive strategy regardless of whether they're falling or not.

This is silly. The C's are 8th in the league in D-Rating and climbing. The offense is *still* 1st in the league. Variance happens. It just so happens to be swinging hard in both directions so far.

Do you agree with the "ride it out, no adjustments" strategy?

That applies to:  not calling timeouts; not making in-game adjustments to the offensive strategy; not making game-to-game adjustments to the offensive strategy.

Because, some might call that "standing on the sidelines and not coaching during games".  While I agree that variance happens, when the team plays as the NBA's worst offense team for 6 games, there should be some adjustments.  The team doesn't need to rip the team down to the studs, but it needs to make small fixes.

[slamtheking]

They've been reading their press clippings and think they can skate because they are all so great.  If 3's aren't falling drive to the basket.  At least that's what smart players would do.

I agree with you that a change in strategy is needed when things aren't working.  Good teams adjust to different defenses, to cold shooting, etc.

But, we've been the worst offense in the NBA over the last six games, and our coach is preaching no adjustments.  I'm puzzled by that.

it does beg the question --> does he HAVE any other ideas on how to run an offense?   his philosophy on D has been different than Udoka's and not for the better by any means.  his philosophy on offense looked great when the team was hitting 3's at a ridiculous clip but looks absolutely awful when those 3's aren't falling.  having half our shots come from the 3 point line is not a sound offensive strategy regardless of whether they're falling or not.

This is silly. The C's are 8th in the league in D-Rating and climbing. The offense is *still* 1st in the league. Variance happens. It just so happens to be swinging hard in both directions so far.

Do you agree with the "ride it out, no adjustments" strategy?

That applies to:  not calling timeouts; not making in-game adjustments to the offensive strategy; not making game-to-game adjustments to the offensive strategy.

Because, some might call that "standing on the sidelines and not coaching during games".  While I agree that variance happens, when the team plays as the NBA's worst offense team for 6 games, there should be some adjustments.  The team doesn't need to rip the team down to the studs, but it needs to make small fixes.

This.

when the gameplan isn't working, continuing down that same path hoping for a different result has been brutally laid out as a bad idea.  between "letting them figure it out" which lets the other team get back into the game when we've been ahead to "you don't adjust your approach" when the offense or defense (or both) is badly malfunctioning is just bad coaching -- or certainly highly questionable particularly from a coach that's a rookie without a lengthy NBA career/experience to draw from. 

when the philosophy of chucking 3's isn't working because the team as a whole is misfiring, change the philosophy - certainly for that game.  get the team running some set plays in the half court when fastbreak points aren't available.  nothing wrong with putting Smart or Al in the post and running the offense through them rather than passing around the perimeter.  for that matter put Jaylen or Tatum in the post and let them work their man for an easier basket.  the team needs some type of offense it can go to when it needs points and the outside shots aren't falling.  team also needs to figure out its defense in regards to switching and controlling their defensive boards because that's a mess right now too.  Orlando spent the last 2 games picking us apart with their offense and rebounding

[hpantazo]

They've been reading their press clippings and think they can skate because they are all so great.  If 3's aren't falling drive to the basket.  At least that's what smart players would do.

I agree with you that a change in strategy is needed when things aren't working.  Good teams adjust to different defenses, to cold shooting, etc.

But, we've been the worst offense in the NBA over the last six games, and our coach is preaching no adjustments.  I'm puzzled by that.

it does beg the question --> does he HAVE any other ideas on how to run an offense?   his philosophy on D has been different than Udoka's and not for the better by any means.  his philosophy on offense looked great when the team was hitting 3's at a ridiculous clip but looks absolutely awful when those 3's aren't falling.  having half our shots come from the 3 point line is not a sound offensive strategy regardless of whether they're falling or not.

This is silly. The C's are 8th in the league in D-Rating and climbing. The offense is *still* 1st in the league. Variance happens. It just so happens to be swinging hard in both directions so far.

Do you agree with the "ride it out, no adjustments" strategy?

That applies to:  not calling timeouts; not making in-game adjustments to the offensive strategy; not making game-to-game adjustments to the offensive strategy.

Because, some might call that "standing on the sidelines and not coaching during games".  While I agree that variance happens, when the team plays as the NBA's worst offense team for 6 games, there should be some adjustments.  The team doesn't need to rip the team down to the studs, but it needs to make small fixes.

Agreed. Especially when considering that the league has likely made adjustments on how to defend this Celtics offense after observing the Celtics strategy for a quarter of the season now. Mazzulla needs to make some tweaks to respond to how the league is approaching the current Celtics offensive sets.

[Roy H.]

Per Cleaning the Glass, the Celtics scored 62.8 points per 100 possessions while playing in the halfcourt during Sunday's loss.

Jay King: Joe Mazzulla said “outside of the result” he thought the Celtics played “a pretty good game.” 20 hours ago – via Twitter ByJayKing

I'm trying to reconcile those two things.  For perspective, the league average is 112.9 points per 100 possessions (which obviously includes all points, not just fast breaks).  And that's playing against a bottom-six defense.

But yeah, totally awesome game.

[keevsnick]

Per Cleaning the Glass, the Celtics scored 62.8 points per 100 possessions while playing in the halfcourt during Sunday's loss.

Jay King: Joe Mazzulla said “outside of the result” he thought the Celtics played “a pretty good game.” 20 hours ago – via Twitter ByJayKing

I'm trying to reconcile those two things.  For perspective, the league average is 112.9 points per 100 possessions (which obviously includes all points, not just fast breaks).  And that's playing against a bottom-six defense.

But yeah, totally awesome game.

I think those two ideas are pretty easily reconciled by the "we just missed shots" idea. You can play a great game, get wide open shots, move the ball, ect but if you miss a bunch you're still going to have a very low half court offensive rating.

Not saying I totally agree they had a great game, but I can get the disconnect to some degree. I guess you could simply argue if you miss a bunch of shots you didn't actually play great, since "shooting" is part of "playing."

[Roy H.]

Per Cleaning the Glass, the Celtics scored 62.8 points per 100 possessions while playing in the halfcourt during Sunday's loss.

Jay King: Joe Mazzulla said “outside of the result” he thought the Celtics played “a pretty good game.” 20 hours ago – via Twitter ByJayKing

I'm trying to reconcile those two things.  For perspective, the league average is 112.9 points per 100 possessions (which obviously includes all points, not just fast breaks).  And that's playing against a bottom-six defense.

But yeah, totally awesome game.

I think those two ideas are pretty easily reconciled by the "we just missed shots" idea. You can play a great game, get wide open shots, move the ball, ect but if you miss a bunch you're still going to have a very low half court offensive rating.

Not saying I totally agree they had a great game, but I can get the disconnect to some degree. I guess you could simply argue if you miss a bunch of shots you didn't actually play great, since "shooting" is part of "playing."

Exactly.  Not to mention, observationally I didn't think we got particularly great shots.  We missed 65.2% of our shots, and 74.5% of our 3PTs.  If that's happening, a team needs to look for better looks, closer to the basket.  16 turnovers is nothing to brag about, either.

Here's our shot chart:

https://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/shot-chart/202212180BOS.html

[Roy H.]

The Celtics own the league’s worst offensive rating over their last nine games.

Nine games.  That's 11% of the season, which to me feels like more than a small dip.  Time for some leadership from management.