Author Topic: Joeball - What's the Difference?  (Read 5368 times)

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Joeball - What's the Difference?
« on: December 01, 2022, 06:54:20 PM »

Offline Hoopvortex

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Your Boston Celtics currently have the best offense in NBA history. According to Basketball Reference's algorithm, they're scoring 122.2 points per 100 possessions. NBA.com's algorithm has them at 121.5 - either way, an astonishing number.

I think that I'm not alone in ranking Brad Stevens' personnel decisions highly; certainly the addition of a major shot-creator and scorer off the bench in Malcolm Brogdon has made a big difference (true to his word, that fulfilled a need that Brad identified in his post-season press conference).

Then, too, you could point to the development of players, above all of Jayson Tatum.

I'm interested to know what you see about anything having to do with the offense - why is it better? Why is it so much better than last season? It would be interesting to look at the Celtics' offense after the trade deadline last year.

But the main thing I'm interested in here is:

How is Joeball different than Imeball, and how much is it contributing to how good the offense has been? Those are two separate questions.

A few things stand out:

1. Marcus Smart has the ball more. This is especially interesting because his usage% has gone down. He has never had a usage over 20%, but as of today he's at a minuscule 16.6%. His assist% just went up over the golden threshold of 30, the highest of his career. Add to that the stellar Ast/TO ratio, over 3.5, and he's looking a lot like a classic pass-first point guard these days. More than assists, he does a great job of just being a connector, making the next pass.

2. There is more ball movement than last year. But equally or more important, there's more man movement. There are like a LOT more off-ball screens; almost 60 per game compared to about 48 last year. We're seeing a lot of variations on a Strong set, with two staggered screeners on the wing. Out of that, a lot of 45 cuts by one of the screeners into the lane, or if Brown is one of the screeners, taking a pass and driving.

3. Marcus Smart is posting up more. Especially striking is a postup in the lane - meaning that he's making a quick decision, including attacking the basket. In the lane outside the restricted area, Marcus is shooting an excellent .550, but he's more likely to pass to a shooter or a cutter. They're even running a pick and roll with Smart as the screener and Tatum as ballhandler to get them both a mismatch.

4. Jaylen Brown is getting to the rim more. Fewer threes and fewer lane shots outside the restricted area. His more efficient midrange game is a powerful weapon, since most defenses aren't geared toward defending it. But he isn't shooting it more, just better. Same thing with his FT shooting; his FTr is good but not elite at .261 - about the same as last year; but he's shooting a career-high from the line: .832, which is A-plus.  That's a huge achievement, looking at his career; it's just because of patient, steady work.

5. The Two Jays® have usage rates comparable to last season, with assist rates slightly lower.

What else?
'I was proud of Marcus Smart. He did a great job of keeping us together. He might not get credit for this game, but the pace that he played at, and his playcalling, some of the plays that he called were great. We obviously have to rely on him, so I’m definitely looking forward to Marcus leading this team in that role.' - Jaylen Brown, January 2021

Re: Joeball - What's the Difference?
« Reply #1 on: December 01, 2022, 07:00:04 PM »

Offline RockinRyA

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I think we are pushing the ball more, which results to the opponents not getting their defense set and lead to mismatches and from there its scramble mode. I think pushing the ball often (not always as you do get tired) is good. Even if you dont get an easy basket you have a lot of time on the clock to probe the enemy defense for holes.

Re: Joeball - What's the Difference?
« Reply #2 on: December 01, 2022, 07:37:56 PM »

Offline sgrogan

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Your Boston Celtics currently have the best offense in NBA history. According to Basketball Reference's algorithm, they're scoring 122.2 points per 100 possessions. NBA.com's algorithm has them at 121.5 - either way, an astonishing number.

I think that I'm not alone in ranking Brad Stevens' personnel decisions highly; certainly the addition of a major shot-creator and scorer off the bench in Malcolm Brogdon has made a big difference (true to his word, that fulfilled a need that Brad identified in his post-season press conference).

Then, too, you could point to the development of players, above all of Jayson Tatum.

I'm interested to know what you see about anything having to do with the offense - why is it better? Why is it so much better than last season? It would be interesting to look at the Celtics' offense after the trade deadline last year.

But the main thing I'm interested in here is:

How is Joeball different than Imeball, and how much is it contributing to how good the offense has been? Those are two separate questions.

A few things stand out:

1. Marcus Smart has the ball more. This is especially interesting because his usage% has gone down. He has never had a usage over 20%, but as of today he's at a minuscule 16.6%. His assist% just went up over the golden threshold of 30, the highest of his career. Add to that the stellar Ast/TO ratio, over 3.5, and he's looking a lot like a classic pass-first point guard these days. More than assists, he does a great job of just being a connector, making the next pass.

2. There is more ball movement than last year. But equally or more important, there's more man movement. There are like a LOT more off-ball screens; almost 60 per game compared to about 48 last year. We're seeing a lot of variations on a Strong set, with two staggered screeners on the wing. Out of that, a lot of 45 cuts by one of the screeners into the lane, or if Brown is one of the screeners, taking a pass and driving.

3. Marcus Smart is posting up more. Especially striking is a postup in the lane - meaning that he's making a quick decision, including attacking the basket. In the lane outside the restricted area, Marcus is shooting an excellent .550, but he's more likely to pass to a shooter or a cutter. They're even running a pick and roll with Smart as the screener and Tatum as ballhandler to get them both a mismatch.

4. Jaylen Brown is getting to the rim more. Fewer threes and fewer lane shots outside the restricted area. His more efficient midrange game is a powerful weapon, since most defenses aren't geared toward defending it. But he isn't shooting it more, just better. Same thing with his FT shooting; his FTr is good but not elite at .261 - about the same as last year; but he's shooting a career-high from the line: .832, which is A-plus.  That's a huge achievement, looking at his career; it's just because of patient, steady work.

5. The Two Jays® have usage rates comparable to last season, with assist rates slightly lower.

What else?
I think its the 3's
We have 8 guys over 40%, 5 have enough to qualify for the league lead.
Tatum is above league average 36.6/35.5 on 9.6 a game.
Smart is above league average 36.0/35.5 on 5 a game.
Brown is below league average 33.6/35.5 on 6.6 a game, but he's shot 39.7% on 7.1 in his career.
Vonleh is 1 for 2 from 40%

Davison is 1-1 from 40%
Kabangele is 1-1 from 50%, and 2-4 from 40%
Jackson needs 3-3 to get to 40%

It has to come back to earth at some point.

Re: Joeball - What's the Difference?
« Reply #3 on: December 01, 2022, 07:39:01 PM »

Offline Hoopvortex

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I think we are pushing the ball more, which results to the opponents not getting their defense set and lead to mismatches and from there its scramble mode. I think pushing the ball often (not always as you do get tired) is good. Even if you dont get an easy basket you have a lot of time on the clock to probe the enemy defense for holes.

I think you're right.

I wish I knew some good ways to measure that.

You can look at pace, as in possessions per game; that's a useful stat, but it's important to recognize its limitations. For what it's worth, Joeball is significantly faster than Imeball: 98.8 vs. 96.6, or 18th fastest in the league vs. 24th.

There are a lot of factors that contribute to how many possessions happen in a game that are not really about playing quickly; causing turnovers on D contributes to more possessions, for example, while lots of offensive rebounding does the opposite.
'I was proud of Marcus Smart. He did a great job of keeping us together. He might not get credit for this game, but the pace that he played at, and his playcalling, some of the plays that he called were great. We obviously have to rely on him, so I’m definitely looking forward to Marcus leading this team in that role.' - Jaylen Brown, January 2021

Re: Joeball - What's the Difference?
« Reply #4 on: December 01, 2022, 07:42:28 PM »

Offline td450

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Agree about Smart. The guy was mired in a stubborn style of play for years, and somehow has improved much more at 27 and 28 than he did his entire prior career. I admit I had given up on him.

Essentially you have White and Brogdon instead of Shroder and Richardson (and to a lesser extent, Nesmith and Langford). Combined with the extra motion, you have high I.Q. ball movement and guys who play optimally - elite 3 pt shooting and drive and kick instead of ball pounding and midrange shooting. A lot of mediocre offense out.

And none of those guys last year gave us ball handling under pressure at the end of games. Now we have three guards you can trust with the ball.




Re: Joeball - What's the Difference?
« Reply #5 on: December 01, 2022, 07:50:18 PM »

Offline sgrogan

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Agree about Smart. The guy was mired in a stubborn style of play for years, and somehow has improved much more at 27 and 28 than he did his entire prior career. I admit I had given up on him.

Essentially you have White and Brogdon instead of Shroder and Richardson (and to a lesser extent, Nesmith and Langford). Combined with the extra motion, you have high I.Q. ball movement and guys who play optimally - elite 3 pt shooting and drive and kick instead of ball pounding and midrange shooting. A lot of mediocre offense out.

And none of those guys last year gave us ball handling under pressure at the end of games. Now we have three guards you can trust with the ball.
When it comes to being fouled, the whole team.
Only Harford, Hauser and Pritchard are less than 80%. And I'd trust any of them to make the Free Trows at the end.

Re: Joeball - What's the Difference?
« Reply #6 on: December 01, 2022, 07:53:25 PM »

Offline Hoopvortex

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Your Boston Celtics currently have the best offense in NBA history. According to Basketball Reference's algorithm, they're scoring 122.2 points per 100 possessions. NBA.com's algorithm has them at 121.5 - either way, an astonishing number.

I think that I'm not alone in ranking Brad Stevens' personnel decisions highly; certainly the addition of a major shot-creator and scorer off the bench in Malcolm Brogdon has made a big difference (true to his word, that fulfilled a need that Brad identified in his post-season press conference).

Then, too, you could point to the development of players, above all of Jayson Tatum.

I'm interested to know what you see about anything having to do with the offense - why is it better? Why is it so much better than last season? It would be interesting to look at the Celtics' offense after the trade deadline last year.

But the main thing I'm interested in here is:

How is Joeball different than Imeball, and how much is it contributing to how good the offense has been? Those are two separate questions.

A few things stand out:

1. Marcus Smart has the ball more. This is especially interesting because his usage% has gone down. He has never had a usage over 20%, but as of today he's at a minuscule 16.6%. His assist% just went up over the golden threshold of 30, the highest of his career. Add to that the stellar Ast/TO ratio, over 3.5, and he's looking a lot like a classic pass-first point guard these days. More than assists, he does a great job of just being a connector, making the next pass.

2. There is more ball movement than last year. But equally or more important, there's more man movement. There are like a LOT more off-ball screens; almost 60 per game compared to about 48 last year. We're seeing a lot of variations on a Strong set, with two staggered screeners on the wing. Out of that, a lot of 45 cuts by one of the screeners into the lane, or if Brown is one of the screeners, taking a pass and driving.

3. Marcus Smart is posting up more. Especially striking is a postup in the lane - meaning that he's making a quick decision, including attacking the basket. In the lane outside the restricted area, Marcus is shooting an excellent .550, but he's more likely to pass to a shooter or a cutter. They're even running a pick and roll with Smart as the screener and Tatum as ballhandler to get them both a mismatch.

4. Jaylen Brown is getting to the rim more. Fewer threes and fewer lane shots outside the restricted area. His more efficient midrange game is a powerful weapon, since most defenses aren't geared toward defending it. But he isn't shooting it more, just better. Same thing with his FT shooting; his FTr is good but not elite at .261 - about the same as last year; but he's shooting a career-high from the line: .832, which is A-plus.  That's a huge achievement, looking at his career; it's just because of patient, steady work.

5. The Two Jays® have usage rates comparable to last season, with assist rates slightly lower.

What else?
I think its the 3's
We have 8 guys over 40%, 5 have enough to qualify for the league lead.
Tatum is above league average 36.6/35.5 on 9.6 a game.
Smart is above league average 36.0/35.5 on 5 a game.
Brown is below league average 33.6/35.5 on 6.6 a game, but he's shot 39.7% on 7.1 in his career.
Vonleh is 1 for 2 from 40%

Davison is 1-1 from 40%
Kabangele is 1-1 from 50%, and 2-4 from 40%
Jackson needs 3-3 to get to 40%

It has to come back to earth at some point.

Regression to the mean is always a safe bet.

It's a long season and legs get tired and knees get sore and ankles get sprained and guys play through pain; those things and many others degrade shooting skills.

On the other hand, one of the striking things about Joeball is how open the shooters are. It isn't only a function of how good at shooting they are; it's a function also of how they're playing. I would point also to the depth of good shooters on the roster. Those two things give the team a couple of firewalls to protect against that dreaded regression to the mean.

'I was proud of Marcus Smart. He did a great job of keeping us together. He might not get credit for this game, but the pace that he played at, and his playcalling, some of the plays that he called were great. We obviously have to rely on him, so I’m definitely looking forward to Marcus leading this team in that role.' - Jaylen Brown, January 2021

Re: Joeball - What's the Difference?
« Reply #7 on: December 01, 2022, 08:09:07 PM »

Offline sgrogan

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Your Boston Celtics currently have the best offense in NBA history. According to Basketball Reference's algorithm, they're scoring 122.2 points per 100 possessions. NBA.com's algorithm has them at 121.5 - either way, an astonishing number.

I think that I'm not alone in ranking Brad Stevens' personnel decisions highly; certainly the addition of a major shot-creator and scorer off the bench in Malcolm Brogdon has made a big difference (true to his word, that fulfilled a need that Brad identified in his post-season press conference).

Then, too, you could point to the development of players, above all of Jayson Tatum.

I'm interested to know what you see about anything having to do with the offense - why is it better? Why is it so much better than last season? It would be interesting to look at the Celtics' offense after the trade deadline last year.

But the main thing I'm interested in here is:

How is Joeball different than Imeball, and how much is it contributing to how good the offense has been? Those are two separate questions.

A few things stand out:

1. Marcus Smart has the ball more. This is especially interesting because his usage% has gone down. He has never had a usage over 20%, but as of today he's at a minuscule 16.6%. His assist% just went up over the golden threshold of 30, the highest of his career. Add to that the stellar Ast/TO ratio, over 3.5, and he's looking a lot like a classic pass-first point guard these days. More than assists, he does a great job of just being a connector, making the next pass.

2. There is more ball movement than last year. But equally or more important, there's more man movement. There are like a LOT more off-ball screens; almost 60 per game compared to about 48 last year. We're seeing a lot of variations on a Strong set, with two staggered screeners on the wing. Out of that, a lot of 45 cuts by one of the screeners into the lane, or if Brown is one of the screeners, taking a pass and driving.

3. Marcus Smart is posting up more. Especially striking is a postup in the lane - meaning that he's making a quick decision, including attacking the basket. In the lane outside the restricted area, Marcus is shooting an excellent .550, but he's more likely to pass to a shooter or a cutter. They're even running a pick and roll with Smart as the screener and Tatum as ballhandler to get them both a mismatch.

4. Jaylen Brown is getting to the rim more. Fewer threes and fewer lane shots outside the restricted area. His more efficient midrange game is a powerful weapon, since most defenses aren't geared toward defending it. But he isn't shooting it more, just better. Same thing with his FT shooting; his FTr is good but not elite at .261 - about the same as last year; but he's shooting a career-high from the line: .832, which is A-plus.  That's a huge achievement, looking at his career; it's just because of patient, steady work.

5. The Two Jays® have usage rates comparable to last season, with assist rates slightly lower.

What else?
I think its the 3's
We have 8 guys over 40%, 5 have enough to qualify for the league lead.
Tatum is above league average 36.6/35.5 on 9.6 a game.
Smart is above league average 36.0/35.5 on 5 a game.
Brown is below league average 33.6/35.5 on 6.6 a game, but he's shot 39.7% on 7.1 in his career.
Vonleh is 1 for 2 from 40%

Davison is 1-1 from 40%
Kabangele is 1-1 from 50%, and 2-4 from 40%
Jackson needs 3-3 to get to 40%

It has to come back to earth at some point.

Regression to the mean is always a safe bet.

It's a long season and legs get tired and knees get sore and ankles get sprained and guys play through pain; those things and many others degrade shooting skills.

On the other hand, one of the striking things about Joeball is how open the shooters are. It isn't only a function of how good at shooting they are; it's a function also of how they're playing. I would point also to the depth of good shooters on the roster. Those two things give the team a couple of firewalls to protect against that dreaded regression to the mean.
TP
I'm nervous it can't last, but there is so much depth.
8 guys over 40, some may cool down, but all of them?
Either Jayson or Jaylen could get hot, they are both below career average.
Smart will probably come back to earth, but with the ball movement and his better shot selection, he might set a career high.
 

Re: Joeball - What's the Difference?
« Reply #8 on: December 01, 2022, 08:12:43 PM »

Offline Hoopvortex

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Agree about Smart. The guy was mired in a stubborn style of play for years, and somehow has improved much more at 27 and 28 than he did his entire prior career. I admit I had given up on him.

Essentially you have White and Brogdon instead of Shroder and Richardson (and to a lesser extent, Nesmith and Langford). Combined with the extra motion, you have high I.Q. ball movement and guys who play optimally - elite 3 pt shooting and drive and kick instead of ball pounding and midrange shooting. A lot of mediocre offense out.

And none of those guys last year gave us ball handling under pressure at the end of games. Now we have three guards you can trust with the ball.
When it comes to being fouled, the whole team.
Only Harford, Hauser and Pritchard are less than 80%. And I'd trust any of them to make the Free Trows at the end.

In the context of the whole offense, the most useful single stat I've found is FT makes per FG attempt. I do not believe in single stats, but this one controls for usage and pace as well as for how often you get to the line and how well you shoot them.

Currently Boston is at .217, or 13th in the league for that stat. Per game, Boston is at 21st in the league, per game, for attempts, and 1st in the league for FT%.

'I was proud of Marcus Smart. He did a great job of keeping us together. He might not get credit for this game, but the pace that he played at, and his playcalling, some of the plays that he called were great. We obviously have to rely on him, so I’m definitely looking forward to Marcus leading this team in that role.' - Jaylen Brown, January 2021

Re: Joeball - What's the Difference?
« Reply #9 on: December 01, 2022, 08:13:50 PM »

Offline gouki88

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Off-ball movement and pace seem to be the biggest differences to me on offence. Reminding me a bit of Golden State's offence over the last decade or so, with lots of double screens set for shooters. Either get an open shooter, or the defence over-corrects and one of the screeners flashes to the rim for an easier shot.

There's been a lot of improvement from individual players too. Tatum and Smart are obviously much better, but Brogdon, Brown and White have all exceeded the expectations of most I would say.

The efficiency is outrageous, but I don't see it fading away too much. We have so many weapons. Tatum is in MVP form, Brown is in fringe All-NBA form, Smart is out there looking like 1987 Dennis Johnson, Brogdon is essentially Manu Ginobili, and so on. The shooting we get from our lesser players like White, Grant, Hauser and even Pritchard helps too. Just so balanced.
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PF: Terry Cummings (84-85) / Paul Millsap (15-16)
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Re: Joeball - What's the Difference?
« Reply #10 on: December 01, 2022, 08:18:00 PM »

Offline Hoopvortex

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Your Boston Celtics currently have the best offense in NBA history. According to Basketball Reference's algorithm, they're scoring 122.2 points per 100 possessions. NBA.com's algorithm has them at 121.5 - either way, an astonishing number.

I think that I'm not alone in ranking Brad Stevens' personnel decisions highly; certainly the addition of a major shot-creator and scorer off the bench in Malcolm Brogdon has made a big difference (true to his word, that fulfilled a need that Brad identified in his post-season press conference).

Then, too, you could point to the development of players, above all of Jayson Tatum.

I'm interested to know what you see about anything having to do with the offense - why is it better? Why is it so much better than last season? It would be interesting to look at the Celtics' offense after the trade deadline last year.

But the main thing I'm interested in here is:

How is Joeball different than Imeball, and how much is it contributing to how good the offense has been? Those are two separate questions.

A few things stand out:

1. Marcus Smart has the ball more. This is especially interesting because his usage% has gone down. He has never had a usage over 20%, but as of today he's at a minuscule 16.6%. His assist% just went up over the golden threshold of 30, the highest of his career. Add to that the stellar Ast/TO ratio, over 3.5, and he's looking a lot like a classic pass-first point guard these days. More than assists, he does a great job of just being a connector, making the next pass.

2. There is more ball movement than last year. But equally or more important, there's more man movement. There are like a LOT more off-ball screens; almost 60 per game compared to about 48 last year. We're seeing a lot of variations on a Strong set, with two staggered screeners on the wing. Out of that, a lot of 45 cuts by one of the screeners into the lane, or if Brown is one of the screeners, taking a pass and driving.

3. Marcus Smart is posting up more. Especially striking is a postup in the lane - meaning that he's making a quick decision, including attacking the basket. In the lane outside the restricted area, Marcus is shooting an excellent .550, but he's more likely to pass to a shooter or a cutter. They're even running a pick and roll with Smart as the screener and Tatum as ballhandler to get them both a mismatch.

4. Jaylen Brown is getting to the rim more. Fewer threes and fewer lane shots outside the restricted area. His more efficient midrange game is a powerful weapon, since most defenses aren't geared toward defending it. But he isn't shooting it more, just better. Same thing with his FT shooting; his FTr is good but not elite at .261 - about the same as last year; but he's shooting a career-high from the line: .832, which is A-plus.  That's a huge achievement, looking at his career; it's just because of patient, steady work.

5. The Two Jays® have usage rates comparable to last season, with assist rates slightly lower.

What else?
I think its the 3's
We have 8 guys over 40%, 5 have enough to qualify for the league lead.
Tatum is above league average 36.6/35.5 on 9.6 a game.
Smart is above league average 36.0/35.5 on 5 a game.
Brown is below league average 33.6/35.5 on 6.6 a game, but he's shot 39.7% on 7.1 in his career.
Vonleh is 1 for 2 from 40%

Davison is 1-1 from 40%
Kabangele is 1-1 from 50%, and 2-4 from 40%
Jackson needs 3-3 to get to 40%

It has to come back to earth at some point.

Regression to the mean is always a safe bet.

It's a long season and legs get tired and knees get sore and ankles get sprained and guys play through pain; those things and many others degrade shooting skills.

On the other hand, one of the striking things about Joeball is how open the shooters are. It isn't only a function of how good at shooting they are; it's a function also of how they're playing. I would point also to the depth of good shooters on the roster. Those two things give the team a couple of firewalls to protect against that dreaded regression to the mean.
TP

Either Jayson or Jaylen could get hot, they are both below career average.


Excellent point. In the case of those two, regression to the mean would be increased 3pt%s. The fact that they shoot a lot more than anyone else on the roster means that that kind of movement would have a big impact.
'I was proud of Marcus Smart. He did a great job of keeping us together. He might not get credit for this game, but the pace that he played at, and his playcalling, some of the plays that he called were great. We obviously have to rely on him, so I’m definitely looking forward to Marcus leading this team in that role.' - Jaylen Brown, January 2021

Re: Joeball - What's the Difference?
« Reply #11 on: December 01, 2022, 08:19:21 PM »

Offline Somebody

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Your Boston Celtics currently have the best offense in NBA history. According to Basketball Reference's algorithm, they're scoring 122.2 points per 100 possessions. NBA.com's algorithm has them at 121.5 - either way, an astonishing number.

I think that I'm not alone in ranking Brad Stevens' personnel decisions highly; certainly the addition of a major shot-creator and scorer off the bench in Malcolm Brogdon has made a big difference (true to his word, that fulfilled a need that Brad identified in his post-season press conference).

Then, too, you could point to the development of players, above all of Jayson Tatum.

I'm interested to know what you see about anything having to do with the offense - why is it better? Why is it so much better than last season? It would be interesting to look at the Celtics' offense after the trade deadline last year.

But the main thing I'm interested in here is:

How is Joeball different than Imeball, and how much is it contributing to how good the offense has been? Those are two separate questions.

A few things stand out:

1. Marcus Smart has the ball more. This is especially interesting because his usage% has gone down. He has never had a usage over 20%, but as of today he's at a minuscule 16.6%. His assist% just went up over the golden threshold of 30, the highest of his career. Add to that the stellar Ast/TO ratio, over 3.5, and he's looking a lot like a classic pass-first point guard these days. More than assists, he does a great job of just being a connector, making the next pass.

2. There is more ball movement than last year. But equally or more important, there's more man movement. There are like a LOT more off-ball screens; almost 60 per game compared to about 48 last year. We're seeing a lot of variations on a Strong set, with two staggered screeners on the wing. Out of that, a lot of 45 cuts by one of the screeners into the lane, or if Brown is one of the screeners, taking a pass and driving.

3. Marcus Smart is posting up more. Especially striking is a postup in the lane - meaning that he's making a quick decision, including attacking the basket. In the lane outside the restricted area, Marcus is shooting an excellent .550, but he's more likely to pass to a shooter or a cutter. They're even running a pick and roll with Smart as the screener and Tatum as ballhandler to get them both a mismatch.

4. Jaylen Brown is getting to the rim more. Fewer threes and fewer lane shots outside the restricted area. His more efficient midrange game is a powerful weapon, since most defenses aren't geared toward defending it. But he isn't shooting it more, just better. Same thing with his FT shooting; his FTr is good but not elite at .261 - about the same as last year; but he's shooting a career-high from the line: .832, which is A-plus.  That's a huge achievement, looking at his career; it's just because of patient, steady work.

5. The Two Jays® have usage rates comparable to last season, with assist rates slightly lower.

What else?
Great post! Would like to add that Smart isn't really playing like a classic tablesetting point guard - a lot of his passes come from being a connective passer rather than your PG from the 90s pounding the ball for 15 seconds before making a Stockton/Rondo pass - he's much closer to Draymond than those guys in this regard.

I do want to make it clear that this isn't a bad thing - quick connective passing is one of the most valuable things for a high-end offence because you don't want players to hold the ball and keep it away from your stars/the actions you want to run.
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Re: Joeball - What's the Difference?
« Reply #12 on: December 01, 2022, 08:23:21 PM »

Offline Somebody

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Your Boston Celtics currently have the best offense in NBA history. According to Basketball Reference's algorithm, they're scoring 122.2 points per 100 possessions. NBA.com's algorithm has them at 121.5 - either way, an astonishing number.

I think that I'm not alone in ranking Brad Stevens' personnel decisions highly; certainly the addition of a major shot-creator and scorer off the bench in Malcolm Brogdon has made a big difference (true to his word, that fulfilled a need that Brad identified in his post-season press conference).

Then, too, you could point to the development of players, above all of Jayson Tatum.

I'm interested to know what you see about anything having to do with the offense - why is it better? Why is it so much better than last season? It would be interesting to look at the Celtics' offense after the trade deadline last year.

But the main thing I'm interested in here is:

How is Joeball different than Imeball, and how much is it contributing to how good the offense has been? Those are two separate questions.

A few things stand out:

1. Marcus Smart has the ball more. This is especially interesting because his usage% has gone down. He has never had a usage over 20%, but as of today he's at a minuscule 16.6%. His assist% just went up over the golden threshold of 30, the highest of his career. Add to that the stellar Ast/TO ratio, over 3.5, and he's looking a lot like a classic pass-first point guard these days. More than assists, he does a great job of just being a connector, making the next pass.

2. There is more ball movement than last year. But equally or more important, there's more man movement. There are like a LOT more off-ball screens; almost 60 per game compared to about 48 last year. We're seeing a lot of variations on a Strong set, with two staggered screeners on the wing. Out of that, a lot of 45 cuts by one of the screeners into the lane, or if Brown is one of the screeners, taking a pass and driving.

3. Marcus Smart is posting up more. Especially striking is a postup in the lane - meaning that he's making a quick decision, including attacking the basket. In the lane outside the restricted area, Marcus is shooting an excellent .550, but he's more likely to pass to a shooter or a cutter. They're even running a pick and roll with Smart as the screener and Tatum as ballhandler to get them both a mismatch.

4. Jaylen Brown is getting to the rim more. Fewer threes and fewer lane shots outside the restricted area. His more efficient midrange game is a powerful weapon, since most defenses aren't geared toward defending it. But he isn't shooting it more, just better. Same thing with his FT shooting; his FTr is good but not elite at .261 - about the same as last year; but he's shooting a career-high from the line: .832, which is A-plus.  That's a huge achievement, looking at his career; it's just because of patient, steady work.

5. The Two Jays® have usage rates comparable to last season, with assist rates slightly lower.

What else?
I think its the 3's
We have 8 guys over 40%, 5 have enough to qualify for the league lead.
Tatum is above league average 36.6/35.5 on 9.6 a game.
Smart is above league average 36.0/35.5 on 5 a game.
Brown is below league average 33.6/35.5 on 6.6 a game, but he's shot 39.7% on 7.1 in his career.
Vonleh is 1 for 2 from 40%

Davison is 1-1 from 40%
Kabangele is 1-1 from 50%, and 2-4 from 40%
Jackson needs 3-3 to get to 40%

It has to come back to earth at some point.

Regression to the mean is always a safe bet.

It's a long season and legs get tired and knees get sore and ankles get sprained and guys play through pain; those things and many others degrade shooting skills.

On the other hand, one of the striking things about Joeball is how open the shooters are. It isn't only a function of how good at shooting they are; it's a function also of how they're playing. I would point also to the depth of good shooters on the roster. Those two things give the team a couple of firewalls to protect against that dreaded regression to the mean.
He's also playing shooters that would've never seen the light of day under Ime (e.g. Hauser). We've been playing more offensively-slanted lineups to supercharge our shooting, it makes sense that our three point shooting has gone up (even though guys like White have been unsustainably hot from three, the Jays have been pretty cold for their standards).
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Re: Joeball - What's the Difference?
« Reply #13 on: December 01, 2022, 08:25:28 PM »

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Off-ball movement and pace seem to be the biggest differences to me on offence. Reminding me a bit of Golden State's offence over the last decade or so, with lots of double screens set for shooters. Either get an open shooter, or the defence over-corrects and one of the screeners flashes to the rim for an easier shot.

There's been a lot of improvement from individual players too. Tatum and Smart are obviously much better, but Brogdon, Brown and White have all exceeded the expectations of most I would say.

The efficiency is outrageous, but I don't see it fading away too much. We have so many weapons. Tatum is in MVP form, Brown is in fringe All-NBA form, Smart is out there looking like 1987 Dennis Johnson, Brogdon is essentially Manu Ginobili, and so on. The shooting we get from our lesser players like White, Grant, Hauser and even Pritchard helps too. Just so balanced.
More like 37 year old Manu, if Brogdon was like prime Manu we would be unprecedentedly good :laugh:.
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Re: Joeball - What's the Difference?
« Reply #14 on: December 01, 2022, 08:26:47 PM »

Offline gouki88

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Off-ball movement and pace seem to be the biggest differences to me on offence. Reminding me a bit of Golden State's offence over the last decade or so, with lots of double screens set for shooters. Either get an open shooter, or the defence over-corrects and one of the screeners flashes to the rim for an easier shot.

There's been a lot of improvement from individual players too. Tatum and Smart are obviously much better, but Brogdon, Brown and White have all exceeded the expectations of most I would say.

The efficiency is outrageous, but I don't see it fading away too much. We have so many weapons. Tatum is in MVP form, Brown is in fringe All-NBA form, Smart is out there looking like 1987 Dennis Johnson, Brogdon is essentially Manu Ginobili, and so on. The shooting we get from our lesser players like White, Grant, Hauser and even Pritchard helps too. Just so balanced.
More like 37 year old Manu, if Brogdon was like prime Manu we would be unprecedentedly good :laugh:.
Yeah, strictly talking about bald Manu
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