I don't think TCU jumps from 8 ahead of Tennessee. Committee had them behind Bama last week.
Georgia, Ohio State, Michigan is about as obvious a top 3 as you will find
It does then get interesting.
Tennessee is probably 4, then TCU and Oregon, but I wouldn't be all that surprised to really see Oregon jump up. I think LSU is 7th with USC 8th.
We'll see. Either way it does seem like in a way, TCU and Oregon control their own destinies assuming they win out including their respective conference Championship game.
If I had to guess, I think there's a good chance the Top-4 in the CFP at the end of the year will be Georgia, then winner of Ohio State/Michigan, then TCU and Oregon. But obviously if any of TCU or Oregon lose, then that spot will go to either Tennessee, loser of Ohio State-Michigan, or LSU
Funny thing is, I don't even think the SEC Championship Game even matters to Georgia anymore in terms of making the playoffs. I mean if they lose, are they actually falling out of the Top-4 even over some of the teams they already beat head-to-head? (Oregon and Tennessee)
Regarding Georgia, the only way they are in trouble is if they drop a game prior to the SEC championship game.
I think Oregon is behind Tennessee regardless. I also think they’re behind Michigan-OSU loser if that game is close. You can’t lose 49-3 and get in a 4-team playoff over other 1-loss teams, conference champion or not.
Oregon will finish the year ahead of Tennessee if they both win out. I don't even think it will be close. And I believe the committee has basically told everyone this by moving Oregon to 6 right behind Tennessee.
Tennessee only has Missouri, South Carolina, and Vanderbilt left. They are under .500 combined and only S. Carolina at 6-3 is at least arguably any good.
Meanwhile, Oregon has 25th ranked Washington, 13th ranked Utah, 6-3 Oregon St., and then almost certainly the winner of 8th ranked USC and 12th ranked UCLA in the Pac 12 championship.
Oregon has already beaten UCLA, so if USC wins that rivalry game, that will mean at least 3 (if not 4) top 25 wins for the Ducks (and they are all fairly recent). While Tennessee is sitting there with a great wins over LSU and Alabama, but I don't think that is going to be enough for them to overcome the overall better schedule the Ducks played, the better wins more recently, and the fact that Oregon will be a champion and Tennessee will not. And yes 49-3 is very bad, but it was the 1st game of the year with a new QB and it was to the team that absolutely dominated Tennessee as well.
If Oregon wins out, they are making the playoff at this point unless Georgia does not win the SEC. That is the only possible way a 1 loss Oregon isn't in the playoffs (and if TCU loses, a 1 loss Oregon probably still makes the playoffs even if Georgia picks up a loss as a 1 loss Oregon will also be ahead of a 1 loss TCU even if TCU is the Big 12 champ).