How far are our players from their ceiling?

[Moranis]

Timelord and Tatum are about it other than some incremental improvement, and Tatum may be about done.

At 24? Neither is yet at their peak. Both will get better.

Yes, those are the only 2 with any real shot at it, though Tatum may be about done given he just completed year 5.  Guys don't tend to have the leaps thst far into their careers.  It can happen, it just isn't all that common.

[LilRip]

Timelord and Tatum are about it other than some incremental improvement, and Tatum may be about done.

At 24? Neither is yet at their peak. Both will get better.

Yes, those are the only 2 with any real shot at it, though Tatum may be about done given he just completed year 5.  Guys don't tend to have the leaps thst far into their careers.  It can happen, it just isn't all that common.

^^same thinking.

It’s rare to see guys make a leap in year 6, particularly wings and guards. Even late bloomers usually already show you fulfilled potential after 5 years. And its not like it’s a sad thing that JT isn’t going to make another leap. With some team wins, incremental refinements, and marketing, he’s an MVP candidate. In his current form, he already looks like a perennial All-NBA talent.

Same with JB. He’s a fringe all-star talent who could be an all star again if he had higher usage numbers. But he is who he is at this point. And again, it’s not a bad thing.

For big men, I think big men take longer to develop and so TL might surprise us yet.

[td450]

Timelord and Tatum are about it other than some incremental improvement, and Tatum may be about done.

At 24? Neither is yet at their peak. Both will get better.

Yes, those are the only 2 with any real shot at it, though Tatum may be about done given he just completed year 5.  Guys don't tend to have the leaps thst far into their careers.  It can happen, it just isn't all that common.

^^same thinking.

It’s rare to see guys make a leap in year 6, particularly wings and guards. Even late bloomers usually already show you fulfilled potential after 5 years. And its not like it’s a sad thing that JT isn’t going to make another leap. With some team wins, incremental refinements, and marketing, he’s an MVP candidate. In his current form, he already looks like a perennial All-NBA talent.

Same with JB. He’s a fringe all-star talent who could be an all star again if he had higher usage numbers. But he is who he is at this point. And again, it’s not a bad thing.

For big men, I think big men take longer to develop and so TL might surprise us yet.

Got to disagree. At this point, the difference between being just another volume scorer who can't win and being a threat to win a title is a hairline improvement in making reads and decisions under pressure.

Jayson has less room to improve but is already near the top of the sport. The offense has run through him for years now. If he is physically and emotionally not exhausted and makes a few better decisions in key moments, he becomes a next level player.

Jaylen has always been asked to fill in around Tatum. He is just starting to explore a more traditional role where he carries the offense for stretches. He hasn't had anything close to the reps that Tatum has had. His game could go forward in a number of directions.

Small improvements could be huge here.

[Csfan1984]

I would say depends on what prime is for an individual player and if that player goes without injury and still puts in good work. If a guy continues to work and suffer no set backs it's probably on an age scale of a "certain age hits his all time talent mark". My guess on average would be,

Age range = Peak talent potential hit
34 to 36 = 80%
31 to 33 = 95%
28 to 30 =100%
25 to 27 = 90%
22 to 24 = 80%
18 to 21 = 70%

So if healthy and working hard any one under 25 has a ways to go. Anyone over 33 is probably on the down side and will need to rely more on savvy experience over refined talent.

[Moranis]

I would say depends on what prime is for an individual player and if that player goes without injury and still puts in good work. If a guy continues to work and suffer no set backs it's probably on an age scale of a "certain age hits his all time talent mark". My guess on average would be,

Age range = Peak talent potential hit
34 to 36 = 80%
31 to 33 = 95%
28 to 30 =100%
25 to 27 = 90%
22 to 24 = 80%
18 to 21 = 70%

So if healthy and working hard any one under 25 has a ways to go. Anyone over 33 is probably on the down side and will need to rely more on savvy experience over refined talent.

I looked at this several years ago and NBA experience was far more the driver than actual age.  The absolute apex of most players is right around season 8 of their career, no matter their age during that season.  That is when they've learned enough of the tricks of the trade and their body is still in its peak form before the years of abuse start degrading the body.  The guys that enter the league younger are obviously a bit younger when they hit that apex point vs. the guys that enter the league a bit older. 

[gouki88]

I believe Tatum has MVP level potential. I think he can develop into that kind of unstoppable offensive force that Kevin Durant has been for years. The kind of guy we saw from late-January through to his shoulder injury: 28/7/5 on 49/39/87 shooting, or thereabouts.

We saw some playmaking development from Brown last season, and if he can carry that on and follow the Jimmy Butler path of developing into a strong passer, his potential is high. I don't see him reaching Butler's level, but there's room for improvement.

I think Smart is who he is. 28 years old, coming off a career best year. The only hope would be more careful shot-selection like we saw in 18-19.

Rob might nearly be 25, but I still think there are some levels to be unlocked. His free throw shooting made a significant jump, and I think his passing has the potential to be like Al's is.

Grant is near his ceiling for me, chiefly because he is both athletically limited nor skilful with ball-in-hand (i.e., his woeful dribbling). Some passing improvement would be nice, but it's regressed each season.

White and Brogdon are both who they are. White could shoot better, but I think we know what both provides.

I am still fully confident Pritchard can be for us what Mills was for San Antonio. Especially with his improving defence.

[Csfan1984]

I would say depends on what prime is for an individual player and if that player goes without injury and still puts in good work. If a guy continues to work and suffer no set backs it's probably on an age scale of a "certain age hits his all time talent mark". My guess on average would be,

Age range = Peak talent potential hit
34 to 36 = 80%
31 to 33 = 95%
28 to 30 =100%
25 to 27 = 90%
22 to 24 = 80%
18 to 21 = 70%

So if healthy and working hard any one under 25 has a ways to go. Anyone over 33 is probably on the down side and will need to rely more on savvy experience over refined talent.

I looked at this several years ago and NBA experience was far more the driver than actual age.  The absolute apex of most players is right around season 8 of their career, no matter their age during that season.  That is when they've learned enough of the tricks of the trade and their body is still in its peak form before the years of abuse start degrading the body.  The guys that enter the league younger are obviously a bit younger when they hit that apex point vs. the guys that enter the league a bit older.

I agree. The data is there on the experience. I think it's a driving force to lower entry age. Get these guys going early and you get more “peak service“.