What was Brad thinking?

[liam]

Boston is FAR more likely to wina title in the next 4 years with Durant than it is over the next decade with Brown. It really is that simple.

Any actual stats/arguments for this or just skip Bayless super confident opinion. It’s also not just brown. It’s probably brown smart and picks.

you mean a 29 ppg scorer who shoots 52% from the field that was just 2nd team all NBA.  I don't know why it is even a question that Durant significantly increases the title odds over the next couple of seasons.  He clearly does and he will increase those title chances more than a fringe all star player like Brown ever will.  Talent wins in the NBA and Durant is far more talented than Brown.

the issue isn't that Durant is more talented than Jaylen, he is. 

the issue is Durant himself --> he's looking to get out of Brooklyn without having played a moment of his 4-year contract.  That's for the team he deliberately signed with as a FA.  He's also had health concerns in the past few years and even with a decent supporting cast this past season got swept in the first round.   How anyone can think he will honor that 4-year deal in Boston, not even worrying about the expense of that deal and his probable decline in his mid to late 30's is mindboggling. 

In a vacuum, you'd make that deal to get a player like Durant.  problem is, the deal isn't being made in a vacuum and you need to take all the other Durant issues into consideration. 
also, if the team was having issues getting to the ECF and losing in the first 2 rounds, that would be another factor to make the deal but the C's have gotten to the ECF several times in the past several years without Durant and made the finals last year and were arguably in reach of winning it had Tatum not played like crap.  (wasn't just Tatum -- others had an awful series as well).   With the moves this offseason so far, there's a very good chance C's are back in the Finals with a better chance to win it this time without acquiring Durant.

I agree. Durant is far from a sure thing. The Nets thought he was a sure thing and it turns out he wasn't.

[johnnygreen]

Any trade offer of this magnitude has to come from ownership. Then again, I don't think Brad would have offered Brown and either Smart or White. It simply doesn't make sense with how the roster is constructed. Their backcourt is currently 4 deep, but will suddenly take away two of them in this trade. And by the way, one of those two remaining guys in the backcourt (Brogdon) always seems to be injured. Another thing that doesn't add up, is letting the Fournier trade exception expire and not replenish this possible loss in backcourt depth.

I think the reports are bogus. If Brown was included in a trade offer, the deal would have been done by now. There is no way the Nets will get any player close to Brown.

[Goldstar88]

Boston is FAR more likely to wina title in the next 4 years with Durant than it is over the next decade with Brown. It really is that simple.

Maybe over the next 2 years. I don’t think a 36 year old KD will be an overall better player than a 27 year old JB. Are you not taking defense or any other variables other than scoring into consideration? If you eliminate Brown and Smart or Brown, White, G-Will, I’m not sure the Celtics are that much better of a team. Really small window and you still have to deal with the Warrriors while praying that KD doesn’t decline ability wise year to year. JB hasn’t even entered his prime. 

[Roy H.]

Boston is FAR more likely to wina title in the next 4 years with Durant than it is over the next decade with Brown. It really is that simple.

How big is the gap?

Is Boston *far* more likely to win a title in the next 4 years if we include not only Brown but White, as well?

What if it's Brown + Smart?  Or Brown + Smart + Williams?

[CelticsWhat35]

Boston is FAR more likely to wina title in the next 4 years with Durant than it is over the next decade with Brown. It really is that simple.

Maybe over the next 2 years. I don’t think a 36 year old KD will be an overall better player than a 27 year old JB. Are you not taking defense or any other variables other than scoring into consideration? If you eliminate Brown and Smart or Brown, White, G-Will, I’m not sure the Celtics are that much better of a team. Really small window and you still have to deal with the Warrriors while praying that KD doesn’t decline ability wise year to year. JB hasn’t even entered his prime.

That’s where I’m coming from as well.  If KD was 30, this would be a no-brained.  But he’s not and he’s had some significant injuries since turning 30, which makes the trade even riskier.  Granted, he looked great last season, but not so much in the playoffs.

The Celtics were up 2-1 in the Finals and just added Brogdon and Gallinari.  They have a very good chance to win it next year, and can continue to re-tool each year after that.  Tatum and Brown are just entering their primes.  Yes, Brown could leave after two years, but Durant could also force a trade again. 

[celticsclay]

Boston is FAR more likely to wina title in the next 4 years with Durant than it is over the next decade with Brown. It really is that simple.

Maybe over the next 2 years. I don’t think a 36 year old KD will be an overall better player than a 27 year old JB. Are you not taking defense or any other variables other than scoring into consideration? If you eliminate Brown and Smart or Brown, White, G-Will, I’m not sure the Celtics are that much better of a team. Really small window and you still have to deal with the Warrriors while praying that KD doesn’t decline ability wise year to year. JB hasn’t even entered his prime.

That’s where I’m coming from as well.  If KD was 30, this would be a no-brained.  But he’s not and he’s had some significant injuries since turning 30, which makes the trade even riskier.  Granted, he looked great last season, but not so much in the playoffs.

The Celtics were up 2-1 in the Finals and just added Brogdon and Gallinari.  They have a very good chance to win it next year, and can continue to re-tool each year after that.  Tatum and Brown are just entering their primes.  Yes, Brown could leave after two years, but Durant could also force a trade again.

Yeah I think we would have a slightly better chance next year, if Durant stays healthy. But not so sure after that. I think the aging of Lebron has made people think that 36 year old players are still great, when history has taught us the opposite. Durant has also had way more injuries career than Lebron did by the time he was 34. I would be fairly surprised if Durant made an all nba team at 37 or 38. Brown definitely should be better than him by then.

[footey]

Boston is FAR more likely to wina title in the next 4 years with Durant than it is over the next decade with Brown. It really is that simple.

Given current roster construction, how many other teams do you consider better than Boston today? 

[Neurotic Guy]

Boston is FAR more likely to wina title in the next 4 years with Durant than it is over the next decade with Brown. It really is that simple.

Given current roster construction, how many other teams do you consider better than Boston today?

This is the crux of the dilemma. Boston is in the mix at present but (if you like the deal) the clear favorite if they get KD.   I don’t think it’s an easy decision especially given that JB could bolt after 2023-24.

[celticsclay]

Boston is FAR more likely to wina title in the next 4 years with Durant than it is over the next decade with Brown. It really is that simple.

Given current roster construction, how many other teams do you consider better than Boston today?

This is the crux of the dilemma. Boston is in the mix at present but (if you like the deal) the clear favorite if they get KD.   I don’t think it’s an easy decision especially given that JB could bolt after 2023-24.

If it was Derrick white and brown I would do the deal. But trading smart, brown and picks I am not sure we are even better overall next year. This would be a pretty big defensive downgrade and we road our defense to finals. While it would clearly give us the best forward tandem in game, we are probably among the worst guards in the league with white and an often injured brogdon as our starters and Pritchard as our only guard off bench (and I don’t like Pritchard for playoffs)

[Moranis]

Boston is FAR more likely to wina title in the next 4 years with Durant than it is over the next decade with Brown. It really is that simple.

Given current roster construction, how many other teams do you consider better than Boston today?

I think Milwaukee is the best team in the East, with the C's as the clear #2.  The west I think 3 or 4 teams that are at least on par with the C's (Clippers, Warriors, Nuggets and maybe Grizzlies). With Durant and maybe Curry for Brown, Smart, and Grant, the C's are pretty clearly the best team in the sport. White, Brogdon, Durant, Tatum, Rob, Al, PP, Curry, Gallo is basically unstoppable.  Part of the reason, GS could shut down Tatum is Boston had no one else that can create a shot or take pressure off.  Brown just isn't good enough, Durant is.

I said this right when the season ended and it holds true today, Boston needed to look at this offseason like Middleton didn't get hurt and the C's lost in the 2nd round to the Bucks or else they will end up like the Suns.  A 2nd round loser doesn't think they are all that close and gets a guy like Durant when he is available. 

[td450]

With Durant, you bet on a short window delivering titles. Remember, Al Horford is also aging out concurrently.

It will be difficult to replenish talent. You've traded your picks, and a chunk of your depth. You are also rolling with Brogdon and Robert Williams as crucial players, and both have always been fragile.

Add all that up, and you might ride Durant to a title or two if no one goes down, but it wouldn't take much for those opportunities to evaporate.

[Roy H.]

With Durant, you bet on a short window delivering titles. Remember, Al Horford is also aging out concurrently.

It will be difficult to replenish talent. You've traded your picks, and a chunk of your depth. You are also rolling with Brogdon and Robert Williams as crucial players, and both have always been fragile.

Add all that up, and you might ride Durant to a title or two if no one goes down, but it wouldn't take much for those opportunities to evaporate.

That’s the rub.  If Durant delivers a title the trade was worth it, no matter what.  If he delivers two titles, the trade is a home run.

But zero titles?  Then you’ve self-inflicted a mortal wound on your franchise.  It doesn’t matter how strong or weak play reasoning is, a trade for Durant will always be judged purely on results.

[Neurotic Guy]

Boston is FAR more likely to wina title in the next 4 years with Durant than it is over the next decade with Brown. It really is that simple.

Given current roster construction, how many other teams do you consider better than Boston today?

I think Milwaukee is the best team in the East, with the C's as the clear #2.  The west I think 3 or 4 teams that are at least on par with the C's (Clippers, Warriors, Nuggets and maybe Grizzlies). With Durant and maybe Curry for Brown, Smart, and Grant, the C's are pretty clearly the best team in the sport. White, Brogdon, Durant, Tatum, Rob, Al, PP, Curry, Gallo is basically unstoppable.  Part of the reason, GS could shut down Tatum is Boston had no one else that can create a shot or take pressure off.  Brown just isn't good enough, Durant is.

I said this right when the season ended and it holds true today, Boston needed to look at this offseason like Middleton didn't get hurt and the C's lost in the 2nd round to the Bucks or else they will end up like the Suns.  A 2nd round loser doesn't think they are all that close and gets a guy like Durant when he is available.

Your logic falters a bit given that the Cs did add a guy who can create his offense while keeping JB.  They did act like Middleton wasn’t hurt and they lost in the 2nd round.  I’m not saying KD doesn’t make them more unstoppable but your post neglects that Cs didn’t stand still and did add a pretty potent offensive player, plus a 6’10” shooter.

[LilRip]

To answer OP, Brad was thinking of improving his team. I’m sure he’s assessing team needs. Something no one talks about is how old Horford is. Will he be this effective again next year? If he isn’t, the C’s title chances take a massive hit.

I don’t think he wanted to ship JB out but if the return was for a perennial All NBA player? Seems like it’s worth it.

[Roy H.]

Boston is FAR more likely to wina title in the next 4 years with Durant than it is over the next decade with Brown. It really is that simple.

Given current roster construction, how many other teams do you consider better than Boston today?

I think Milwaukee is the best team in the East, with the C's as the clear #2.  The west I think 3 or 4 teams that are at least on par with the C's (Clippers, Warriors, Nuggets and maybe Grizzlies). With Durant and maybe Curry for Brown, Smart, and Grant, the C's are pretty clearly the best team in the sport. White, Brogdon, Durant, Tatum, Rob, Al, PP, Curry, Gallo is basically unstoppable.  Part of the reason, GS could shut down Tatum is Boston had no one else that can create a shot or take pressure off.  Brown just isn't good enough, Durant is.

I said this right when the season ended and it holds true today, Boston needed to look at this offseason like Middleton didn't get hurt and the C's lost in the 2nd round to the Bucks or else they will end up like the Suns.  A 2nd round loser doesn't think they are all that close and gets a guy like Durant when he is available.

Your logic falters a bit given that the Cs did add a guy who can create his offense while keeping JB.  They did act like Middleton wasn’t hurt and they lost in the 2nd round.  I’m not saying KD doesn’t make them more unstoppable but your post neglects that Cs didn’t stand still and did add a pretty potent offensive player, plus a 6’10” shooter.

Agreed.  To me, it's fair to say that it's unclear if we were truly better than Milwaukee last season.  They were missing Middleton, we were playing with a hobbled Timelord.  If somebody says Milwaukee was better, I won't really argue, but you need to assess for Timelord.

But, what isn't intellectually honest is to say "Milwaukee was better last year, so they'll be better this year."  You can't just ignore that we've added Brogdon and Gallinari, while Milwaukee has added Ingles.