Celtics Player Rankings

[keevsnick]

The first "Top NBA Player" list is out, this one from the Athletic in the form of their "Top 125." They don't give an exact ranking for each player but put them into large Tiers and smaller sub tiers. Here's this years Celtics:

Grant Williams: Tier 5A (Between 85 and 125)
Malcolm Brogdon: Tier 4B (Between 60-84)
Derrick White: Tier 4B (Between 60-84)
Robert Williams: Tier 4A (Between 41-59)
Marcus Smart: Tier 4A (Between 41-59)
Al Horford: Tier 4A (Between 41-59)
Jaylen Brown: Tier 3A (Between 20-24)
Jayson Tatum: Tier 2A (Between 9-10)

Really excited to see ESPN and SI's lists this year as well. 8 top 125 players speaks to the c's depth. Any thoughts on these rankings?

[Jvalin]

Was just checking this out.




Seems about right, although I don't know which players are in the 1st Tier.

[keevsnick]

Was just checking this out.




Seems about right, although I don't know which players are in the 1st Tier.

Process of elimination the top 8 would seem to be:

Giannis
Jokic
Curry
Durant
Doncic
Embiid
Kawhi
Lebron

In some order.

[Jvalin]

Was just checking this out.




Seems about right, although I don't know which players are in the 1st Tier.

Process of elimination the top 8 would seem to be:

Giannis
Jokic
Curry
Durant
Doncic
Embiid
Kawhi
Lebron

In some order.

Yep, can't argue with that list. I'd take all these guys ahead of Tatum for next season (assuming Kawhi is healthy).

[Celtics2021]

Yeah, I like the Athletic’s list.  For some context, here is Partnow’s summary of the tiers (he’s given longer explanations as well):

But to briefly sum things up: the margins at the top are very small – as we saw in the most recent NBA Finals – and differentiating the best, from the stars to the simply very good, is imperative in evaluating each team. Whether the purpose is management determining just how close their team is to a title and acting accordingly, or a fanbase setting reasonable expectations, the trap of fudging those differences is an important one to avoid.

To that end, the Tiering process is intentionally exclusionary. For the most part, when in doubt, push ’em down. This is not simply the result of me being contrary (though I am), but is based on empirical research.

Across a variety of metrics, over a long period of NBA history, I’ve found that there are a relatively set number of players who perform at various levels in any given season.

Around five players per season perform at a “supermax” level, worth 35 percent of a team’s salary cap or more, as well as significantly add to a team’s championship equity.
Another 10-15 perform at a “veteran max” level, worth 30 percent or more of the cap.
A further 20-25 players perform at a level justifying a “rookie max” at 25 percent of the cap or higher.
Between 30-35 produce at around 20 percent of the cap.
Another 50 to 75 provide some additional championship equity on top of their “everyday” production, but only a minor amount.
This results in a sort of “good-to-great” range of 125 to 150 players who “matter” from a championship perspective at any one time, and thus form the structure of the tiers.

In general, I’m aiming for three-to-seven Tier 1 guys, with Tier 2 stretching out over the rest of the top 20, down to the top 45 or 50 for Tier 3. Tier 4 makes up the rest of the Top 75 or so, and the remainder of the top 125 includes Tier 5, with 125 being an arbitrary (and somewhat conservative) number that has caused no small bit of agitation about the exclusion of certain players each season.

[Vermont Green]

The first "Top NBA Player" list is out, this one from the Athletic in the form of their "Top 125." They don't give an exact ranking for each player but put them into large Tiers and smaller sub tiers. Here's this years Celtics:

Grant Williams: Tier 5A (Between 85 and 125)
Malcolm Brogdon: Tier 4B (Between 60-84)
Derrick White: Tier 4B (Between 60-84)
Robert Williams: Tier 4A (Between 41-59)
Marcus Smart: Tier 4A (Between 41-59)
Al Horford: Tier 4A (Between 41-59)
Jaylen Brown: Tier 3A (Between 20-24)
Jayson Tatum: Tier 2A (Between 9-10)

Really excited to see ESPN and SI's lists this year as well. 8 top 125 players speaks to the c's depth. Any thoughts on these rankings?

Pretty fair list but my one quarrel is that I expect Brogdon to be better, probably 41-59, maybe the upper end of that range.  He was probably discounted due to injury (fairly).

[Celtics2021]

The first "Top NBA Player" list is out, this one from the Athletic in the form of their "Top 125." They don't give an exact ranking for each player but put them into large Tiers and smaller sub tiers. Here's this years Celtics:

Grant Williams: Tier 5A (Between 85 and 125)
Malcolm Brogdon: Tier 4B (Between 60-84)
Derrick White: Tier 4B (Between 60-84)
Robert Williams: Tier 4A (Between 41-59)
Marcus Smart: Tier 4A (Between 41-59)
Al Horford: Tier 4A (Between 41-59)
Jaylen Brown: Tier 3A (Between 20-24)
Jayson Tatum: Tier 2A (Between 9-10)

Really excited to see ESPN and SI's lists this year as well. 8 top 125 players speaks to the c's depth. Any thoughts on these rankings?

Pretty fair list but my one quarrel is that I expect Brogdon to be better, probably 41-59, maybe the upper end of that range.  He was probably discounted due to injury (fairly).

Yes, of the more subjective factors, reliability was one, which should come into play here.

[Roy H.]

Grant Williams: Tier 5A (Between 85 and 125)
Malcolm Brogdon: Tier 4B (Between 60-84)
Derrick White: Tier 4B (Between 60-84)
Robert Williams: Tier 4A (Between 41-59)
Marcus Smart: Tier 4A (Between 41-59)
Al Horford: Tier 4A (Between 41-59)
Jaylen Brown: Tier 3A (Between 20-24)
Jayson Tatum: Tier 2A (Between 9-10)

So, assuming there's an even distribution of talent in the NBA (there isn't), that means we have:

(1) #1 starter, top-third
(1) #1 starter, bottom-third
(3) #2 starters
(2) #3 starters
(1) #4 starter

So, eight starting caliber players, with five of them capable of being top dogs or sidekicks.

[Who]

Malcolm Brogdon: Tier 4B (Between 60-84)
Derrick White: Tier 4B (Between 60-84)
Robert Williams: Tier 4A (Between 41-59)
Marcus Smart: Tier 4A (Between 41-59)
Al Horford: Tier 4A (Between 41-59)
Jaylen Brown: Tier 3A (Between 20-24)
Jayson Tatum: Tier 2A (Between 9-10)

Brogdon is way too low. That is ridiculous. He is somewhere in the 30s maybe early 40s but more likely in the 30s. He is so well-rounded and skilled offensively. It is ridiculous to have him that low. 

[Who]

Jaylen Brown: Tier 3A (Between 20-24)
Jayson Tatum: Tier 2A (Between 9-10)

Jaylen is too low. He should be inside the top 20.

He should be in Tier 2.

He is better than Gobert, CP3 and maybe Lillard depending on whether Lillard has a rebound season or not.

[nickagneta]

Jaylen Brown: Tier 3A (Between 20-24)
Jayson Tatum: Tier 2A (Between 9-10)

Jaylen is too low. He should be inside the top 20.

He should be in Tier 2.

He is better than Gobert, CP3 and maybe Lillard depending on whether Lillard has a rebound season or not.

Yup...TP. And I bet come the ESPN and SI rankings he will be in the 18-20 range. His playoff run and national exposure will have been the reasons for him cracking top 20. I also think Tatum ends up in the 9-11 range.

[slamtheking]

Jaylen Brown: Tier 3A (Between 20-24)
Jayson Tatum: Tier 2A (Between 9-10)

Jaylen is too low. He should be inside the top 20.

He should be in Tier 2.

He is better than Gobert, CP3 and maybe Lillard depending on whether Lillard has a rebound season or not.

Yup...TP. And I bet come the ESPN and So rankings he will be in the 18-20 range. His playoff run and national exposure will have been the reasons for him cracking top 20. I also think Tatum ends up in the 9-11 range.

agreed.  Jaylen's performance in the finals, while uneven, showed he could play on the biggest stage.  Tatum, not so much. 

[Vermont Green]

Grant Williams: Tier 5A (Between 85 and 125)
Malcolm Brogdon: Tier 4B (Between 60-84)
Derrick White: Tier 4B (Between 60-84)
Robert Williams: Tier 4A (Between 41-59)
Marcus Smart: Tier 4A (Between 41-59)
Al Horford: Tier 4A (Between 41-59)
Jaylen Brown: Tier 3A (Between 20-24)
Jayson Tatum: Tier 2A (Between 9-10)

So, assuming there's an even distribution of talent in the NBA (there isn't), that means we have:

(1) #1 starter, top-third
(1) #1 starter, bottom-third
(3) #2 starters
(2) #3 starters
(1) #4 starter

So, eight starting caliber players, with five of them capable of being top dogs or sidekicks.

I think I get your logic, 1-30 are #1 starters, 31-60 are #2 starters, and so on.  But that results in Grant Williams being a #4 starter and I am not sure that is even close to correct.  Where was Gallinari on the list by the way?  I would have him above Grant.  Is it assumed he is somewhere 6 or below?

I do think we have 7 starter level players, Tatum, Brown, Smart, Horford, RWill, Brogdon, White.  White maybe just barely.  I don't see Gallinari or Grant as starters.  White probably isn't either, at least not on the vast majority of teams.  So call it 6 starters and 3 fringe starters.  That is still pretty good depth.

[keevsnick]

Grant Williams: Tier 5A (Between 85 and 125)
Malcolm Brogdon: Tier 4B (Between 60-84)
Derrick White: Tier 4B (Between 60-84)
Robert Williams: Tier 4A (Between 41-59)
Marcus Smart: Tier 4A (Between 41-59)
Al Horford: Tier 4A (Between 41-59)
Jaylen Brown: Tier 3A (Between 20-24)
Jayson Tatum: Tier 2A (Between 9-10)

So, assuming there's an even distribution of talent in the NBA (there isn't), that means we have:

(1) #1 starter, top-third
(1) #1 starter, bottom-third
(3) #2 starters
(2) #3 starters
(1) #4 starter

So, eight starting caliber players, with five of them capable of being top dogs or sidekicks.

I think I get your logic, 1-30 are #1 starters, 31-60 are #2 starters, and so on.  But that results in Grant Williams being a #4 starter and I am not sure that is even close to correct.  Where was Gallinari on the list by the way?  I would have him above Grant.  Is it assumed he is somewhere 6 or below?

I do think we have 7 starter level players, Tatum, Brown, Smart, Horford, RWill, Brogdon, White.  White maybe just barely.  I don't see Gallinari or Grant as starters.  White probably isn't either, at least not on the vast majority of teams.  So call it 6 starters and 3 fringe starters.  That is still pretty good depth.

Galo was on the list last year, but he fell off this.

I think White is easily an NBA starter FWIW.

[SHAQATTACK]

Jaylen Brown: Tier 3A (Between 20-24)
Jayson Tatum: Tier 2A (Between 9-10)

Jaylen is too low. He should be inside the top 20.

He should be in Tier 2.

He is better than Gobert, CP3 and maybe Lillard depending on whether Lillard has a rebound season or not.

I thought so too….but then again , I’m high on the green kool-aid