Is Grant a goner? (Yes: Traded to DAL for second rounders)

[SHAQATTACK]

Avoid the NY cheese cakes

[sgrogan]

How much does Grant actually play small ball 5 (i.e. center)

I'm motivated by the proposition that our 3rd C (really 2nd, because our backup C is our starting PF) is more than a 5th big (our nominal 3rd and 4th bigs don't play center) is going to play a significant role in our regular season W/L.

I started with https://www.basketball-reference.com/
I looked at the Play-By-Play stats for Grant's 3 seasons.
2019-20 https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/BOS/2020.html#all_pbp-playoffs_pbp 6% * 1042 = 63 minutes
2020-21 https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/BOS/2021.html#all_pbp-playoffs_pbp 7% * 1148 = 80 minutes
2021-22 https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/BOS/2022.html#all_pbp-playoffs_pbp 3% * 1845 = 56 minutes

bbref is notorious for missing on positions, so I looked at 5-man line-ups on https://www.nba.com/
I used filters to filter out 5 man line-ups that contained a "center" playing with Grant.
2019-20 https://www.nba.com/stats/lineups/advanced/?Season=2019-20&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&TeamID=1610612738&CF=GROUP_NAME*E*G.%20Williams:GROUP_NAME*NE*Tatum:GROUP_NAME*NE*Ojeleye:GROUP_NAME*NE*R.%20Williams%20III:GROUP_NAME*NE*Kanter:GROUP_NAME*NE*Fall:GROUP_NAME*NE*Theis:GROUP_NAME*NE*Poirier
Total 62 minutes for Grant at the 5. Interesting is Tatum and Ojeleye are considered C over him.
2020-21 https://www.nba.com/stats/lineups/advanced/?Season=2020-21&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&TeamID=1610612738&CF=GROUP_NAME*E*G.%20Williams:GROUP_NAME*NE*Parker:GROUP_NAME*NE*Ojeleye:GROUP_NAME*NE*R.%20Williams%20III:GROUP_NAME*NE*Thompson:GROUP_NAME*NE*Wagner:GROUP_NAME*NE*Fall:GROUP_NAME*NE*Theis:GROUP_NAME*NE*Kornet
Total 82 minutes for Grant at the 5. Interesting Parker and Ojeleye are considered C over him. (And now not Tatum)
2021/22 https://www.nba.com/stats/lineups/advanced/?Season=2021-22&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&TeamID=1610612738&CF=GROUP_NAME*E*G.%20Williams:GROUP_NAME*NE*Parker:GROUP_NAME*NE*R.%20Williams%20III:GROUP_NAME*NE*Freedom:GROUP_NAME*NE*Horford:GROUP_NAME*NE*Theis:GROUP_NAME*NE*Kornet:GROUP_NAME*NE*Fernando&sort=MIN&dir=1
Total 56 minutes for Grant at the 5. Interesting Parker is considered C over him. (And still not Tatum)

Grant(nor Galanari) isn't going to play 12 minutes a night when Al or Rob are out at C.
Rob and Al played together in 51 games last year, 761 minutes.
That's 31 games where Grant (Galanari) "playing spot minutes at the small ball 5", isn't going to work, IMHO.

When Rob is out, Al playes center for 30ish minutes and we need a backup center, Galinari and Grant can man the 4.
When Al is out, Rob plays center for 30ish minutes and we need a backup center, Galanari and Grant can man the 4.
When Grant is out Rob plays for 30ish minutes, Al backs up for 18ish minutes, Al and Galanari man the 4, maybe with Tatm.
When Galanari is out Rob plays for 30ish minutes, Al backs up for 18ish minutres, Al and Grant man the 4, maybe with Tatum.


I still say there are 800ish minutes to be split between Kornet, Vonleh, and Kabengele or a better alternative.
So, going into the season
Kornet is replacing Freedom
Vonlek is replacing Hernangomez
Kabengele is replacing Bruno.
We dumped them all for Theis and had to scratch and claw our way back after early season woes.

I don't think we should wait. We went 3-6 when one was out over the first 20 games, starting with game 1.

[sgrogan]

How do I make long url links? The nba.com ones are chooped.

[Goldstar88]

Confused as to why (Nope) was added to the title. Did he sign an extension?

[Big333223]

Confused as to why (Nope) was added to the title. Did he sign an extension?

I'm assuming it's because Gallo is probably out for the season. Grant is now incredibly important to the rotation.

FWIW, in 4 games against the Nets, he averaged 11ppg, shooting 50% from 3 and playing great defense on Durant.

In 7 games against the Bucks he averaged 11 ppg, shooting 38% from 3 and playing very good defense on Giannis.

In 7 games against the Heat he averaged 9 ppg, shooting 39% from 3 and playing very good defense on everyone.

He crapped the bed in the Finals but he's 23. If he can keep improving he's going to have a lot of opprtunity to play this season.

[Goldstar88]

Confused as to why (Nope) was added to the title. Did he sign an extension?

I'm assuming it's because Gallo is probably out for the season. Grant is now incredibly important to the rotation.

FWIW, in 4 games against the Nets, he averaged 11ppg, shooting 50% from 3 and playing great defense on Durant.

In 7 games against the Bucks he averaged 11 ppg, shooting 38% from 3 and playing very good defense on Giannis.

In 7 games against the Heat he averaged 9 ppg, shooting 39% from 3 and playing very good defense on everyone.

He crapped the bed in the Finals but he's 23. If he can keep improving he's going to have a lot of opprtunity to play this season.

That post was from weeks ago. Yeah, Grant is definitely going to be sticking around for the time being, regardless of his contract situation. I still think he might become an RFA to test the market. Robert Williams signed his extension on 08/20/21 and I’d imagine the C’s made an offer to Grant at this point.

Edit*

(09/03/22)Forward Grant Williams is eligible to sign an extension this offseason as he enters the final year of his four-year rookie deal. However, the Celtics only have until Oct. 17 to agree to an extension with Williams or he’ll become a free agent in the summer of 2023.

Both sides have discussed a deal, but an agreement seems nowhere near imminent, according to The Athletic’s Jared Weiss.

“Williams is eligible for an extension and held talks with the organization earlier in the offseason, but those have not resumed since July, per a league source,” Weiss wrote.

[Roy H.]

Sean Deveney: Sources told @HeavyOnSports that @celtics PF Grant Williams is in line for a contract extension. BUT the team & GW’s camp huddled up early this summer, and there’ve been no meetings since. That’ll change. We’re told there’s “optimism” on an deal. – via Twitter SeanDeveney

The consensus around the league had been than Grant Williams would get what Robert Williams got, something in the range of four years and $48 million, and maybe around $55 million with incentives.

Grant Williams will likely ask for more, though—four years and $55-60 million or so, according to rival team executives.

The Celtics are likely to pay that for Grant Williams, even if it knocks him a bit out of line with the rest of the team’s roster. The team and Williams might not be talking now, but sources say they soon will, and there will be a fascinating Grant Williams contract at the end of it.

I think this is a poorly written article full of speculation, regurgitation and contradiction, but take it for what it's worth:

https://heavy.com/sports/boston-celtics/grant-williams-contract-extension-2/

[Vermont Green]

Sean Deveney: Sources told @HeavyOnSports that @celtics PF Grant Williams is in line for a contract extension. BUT the team & GW’s camp huddled up early this summer, and there’ve been no meetings since. That’ll change. We’re told there’s “optimism” on an deal. – via Twitter SeanDeveney

The consensus around the league had been than Grant Williams would get what Robert Williams got, something in the range of four years and $48 million, and maybe around $55 million with incentives.

Grant Williams will likely ask for more, though—four years and $55-60 million or so, according to rival team executives.

The Celtics are likely to pay that for Grant Williams, even if it knocks him a bit out of line with the rest of the team’s roster. The team and Williams might not be talking now, but sources say they soon will, and there will be a fascinating Grant Williams contract at the end of it.

I think this is a poorly written article full of speculation, regurgitation and contradiction, but take it for what it's worth:
https://heavy.com/sports/boston-celtics/grant-williams-contract-extension-2/

Rob Williams money is a lot for Grant Williams.  Grant is more durable, that is fair, but Rob is better.  If Grant is offered anything over $10M per year with the regular increases, my advice (offered for free) is to take it.

[Roy H.]

Sean Deveney: Sources told @HeavyOnSports that @celtics PF Grant Williams is in line for a contract extension. BUT the team & GW’s camp huddled up early this summer, and there’ve been no meetings since. That’ll change. We’re told there’s “optimism” on an deal. – via Twitter SeanDeveney

The consensus around the league had been than Grant Williams would get what Robert Williams got, something in the range of four years and $48 million, and maybe around $55 million with incentives.

Grant Williams will likely ask for more, though—four years and $55-60 million or so, according to rival team executives.

The Celtics are likely to pay that for Grant Williams, even if it knocks him a bit out of line with the rest of the team’s roster. The team and Williams might not be talking now, but sources say they soon will, and there will be a fascinating Grant Williams contract at the end of it.

I think this is a poorly written article full of speculation, regurgitation and contradiction, but take it for what it's worth:
https://heavy.com/sports/boston-celtics/grant-williams-contract-extension-2/

Rob Williams money is a lot for Grant Williams.  Grant is more durable, that is fair, but Rob is better.  If Grant is offered anything over $10M per year with the regular increases, my advice (offered for free) is to take it.

I think anything from $10 to $13 million is justifiable, particularly with the coming cap increases.  I wouldn't want to go any higher than that, and really, $10 or $11 million is what I think he should get.  The fact is, to date, Timelord has been an injury-prone impact player and starter, whereas Grant has had one year as a mostly reliable backup role player.

[Moranis]

Sean Deveney: Sources told @HeavyOnSports that @celtics PF Grant Williams is in line for a contract extension. BUT the team & GW’s camp huddled up early this summer, and there’ve been no meetings since. That’ll change. We’re told there’s “optimism” on an deal. – via Twitter SeanDeveney

The consensus around the league had been than Grant Williams would get what Robert Williams got, something in the range of four years and $48 million, and maybe around $55 million with incentives.

Grant Williams will likely ask for more, though—four years and $55-60 million or so, according to rival team executives.

The Celtics are likely to pay that for Grant Williams, even if it knocks him a bit out of line with the rest of the team’s roster. The team and Williams might not be talking now, but sources say they soon will, and there will be a fascinating Grant Williams contract at the end of it.

I think this is a poorly written article full of speculation, regurgitation and contradiction, but take it for what it's worth:
https://heavy.com/sports/boston-celtics/grant-williams-contract-extension-2/

Rob Williams money is a lot for Grant Williams.  Grant is more durable, that is fair, but Rob is better.  If Grant is offered anything over $10M per year with the regular increases, my advice (offered for free) is to take it.

That is basically the MLE.  I don't think there is any way Grant signs for less than the MLE. 

[Vermont Green]

Mid-Level Exception (Non-Taxpayer):
Year                 Salary
2022/23    $10,490,000
2023/24    $11,014,500
2024/25    $11,539,000
2025/26    $12,063,500
Total        $45,107,000

If these are the right values, it seems pretty fair to me.  Players almost always sign for more than I think so Grant will probably get more than this.

Jae Crowder for example is on the books (final year) for $10.2M and I read that PHO was trying to dump him.  No one is going to give Jae Crowder 4 years at this point but for 1 season, Crowder may be better than Grant.

[sgrogan]

Sean Deveney: Sources told @HeavyOnSports that @celtics PF Grant Williams is in line for a contract extension. BUT the team & GW’s camp huddled up early this summer, and there’ve been no meetings since. That’ll change. We’re told there’s “optimism” on an deal. – via Twitter SeanDeveney

The consensus around the league had been than Grant Williams would get what Robert Williams got, something in the range of four years and $48 million, and maybe around $55 million with incentives.

Grant Williams will likely ask for more, though—four years and $55-60 million or so, according to rival team executives.

The Celtics are likely to pay that for Grant Williams, even if it knocks him a bit out of line with the rest of the team’s roster. The team and Williams might not be talking now, but sources say they soon will, and there will be a fascinating Grant Williams contract at the end of it.

I think this is a poorly written article full of speculation, regurgitation and contradiction, but take it for what it's worth:
https://heavy.com/sports/boston-celtics/grant-williams-contract-extension-2/

Rob Williams money is a lot for Grant Williams.  Grant is more durable, that is fair, but Rob is better.  If Grant is offered anything over $10M per year with the regular increases, my advice (offered for free) is to take it.

That is basically the MLE.  I don't think there is any way Grant signs for less than the MLE.

The MLE is the number to work off from.
His QO will be about the TP-MLE approx. 6.5
The MLE is projected around 10.7, his cap hold is 12.9

He will be restricted, most good teams, that could use him best will not have more than the TP-MLE.
He is a good signing at the full MLE for teams with cap space, he will be desirable at the deadline for a contender.
Something around 11.8 x 4 (4th year player option) + incentives would seem to make sense.

[Celtics2021]

Mid-Level Exception (Non-Taxpayer):
Year                 Salary
2022/23    $10,490,000
2023/24    $11,014,500
2024/25    $11,539,000
2025/26    $12,063,500
Total        $45,107,000

If these are the right values, it seems pretty fair to me.  Players almost always sign for more than I think so Grant will probably get more than this.

Jae Crowder for example is on the books (final year) for $10.2M and I read that PHO was trying to dump him.  No one is going to give Jae Crowder 4 years at this point but for 1 season, Crowder may be better than Grant.

You need to use the MLE that starts in 2023-2024, as that's when Grant's extension takes effect.  The current projection has it as:

2023   $11,370,000
2024   $11,938,500
2025   $12,507,000
2026   $13,075,500

Total:  $48,891,000, or $12.2 million AAV.

I expect an extension to come in 10-20% higher than that, including any incentives.

[Roy H.]

Mid-Level Exception (Non-Taxpayer):
Year                 Salary
2022/23    $10,490,000
2023/24    $11,014,500
2024/25    $11,539,000
2025/26    $12,063,500
Total        $45,107,000

If these are the right values, it seems pretty fair to me.  Players almost always sign for more than I think so Grant will probably get more than this.

Jae Crowder for example is on the books (final year) for $10.2M and I read that PHO was trying to dump him.  No one is going to give Jae Crowder 4 years at this point but for 1 season, Crowder may be better than Grant.

You need to use the MLE that starts in 2023-2024, as that's when Grant's extension takes effect.  The current projection has it as:

2023   $11,370,000
2024   $11,938,500
2025   $12,507,000
2026   $13,075,500

Total:  $48,891,000, or $12.2 million AAV.

Good info.  So, 4 years, $52 million isn't wildly off-base.  Maybe that causes Grant to "bet on himself", but it would be fair.

10% above that is $54 million, and 20% is $59 million (roughly)?  I could be talked into $54m, but I'd walk if they insisted on $59m.  The fact is, Grant was pretty bad the year before last.  He definitely trended in the right direction last year, but will that continue?

[Celtics2021]

Mid-Level Exception (Non-Taxpayer):
Year                 Salary
2022/23    $10,490,000
2023/24    $11,014,500
2024/25    $11,539,000
2025/26    $12,063,500
Total        $45,107,000

If these are the right values, it seems pretty fair to me.  Players almost always sign for more than I think so Grant will probably get more than this.

Jae Crowder for example is on the books (final year) for $10.2M and I read that PHO was trying to dump him.  No one is going to give Jae Crowder 4 years at this point but for 1 season, Crowder may be better than Grant.

You need to use the MLE that starts in 2023-2024, as that's when Grant's extension takes effect.  The current projection has it as:

2023   $11,370,000
2024   $11,938,500
2025   $12,507,000
2026   $13,075,500

Total:  $48,891,000, or $12.2 million AAV.

Good info.  So, 4 years, $52 million isn't wildly off-base.  Maybe that causes Grant to "bet on himself", but it would be fair.

10% above that is $54 million, and 20% is $59 million (roughly)?  I could be talked into $54m, but I'd walk if they insisted on $59m.  The fact is, Grant was pretty bad the year before last.  He definitely trended in the right direction last year, but will that continue?

For perspective, when Rob signed his deal, the projected MLE was $43.4 million, so he got something similar (10.5% premium guaranteed, plus incentives that could take him to 24.3% more than the MLE).  He also had shown about a half-season of competent basketball, with injuries.  I think we'll see something around $54 million guaranteed, with incentives that could get him to $62 million, probably based on 3-point shooting and all-defense honors.

It might come in a little higher, even, however.  There could be a new CBA in year 2 of his deal that could see a cap spike anticipating a new media deal the following year, so some of that impending spike could be prepaid to Grant.