As is often the case, I think people are going to be surprised that the core player in a trade for KD isn't a current all-star.
This is for two reasons:
1. The team trading the all-star has to have enough talent left to compete for a championship with KD. That's pretty hard to do.
2. That's just not how these trades work. The players going back are often upside guys on team-controlled contracts.
The Chicago trade can't/won't happen because of #1 above.
The Warriors and the Sixers trade can't/won't happen for personal reasons. I don't think Durant wants to play with Harden or Green again.
The Atlanta and Clippers trades can't happen because they don't really have their 1sts anymore.
The Memphis one won't happen because Durant is not on their timeline.
That leaves Boston, Suns, Heat, and Raptors from your list. I will also include the Blazers.
The Suns offer is really difficult to do with Ayton coming into a new contract.
1. From what I understand, Ayton's salary in that trade is his last year's for Suns trading him away, and his new (likely max) salary for the Nets bringing him in.
2. I can't see the Suns going deep into the tax with their ownership group, and I think the Nets are trying to get out of the tax if they are trading Irving and Durant.
3. For this to happen, Ayton would need to accept a sign-and-trade for a $$ amount the Nets like (difficult)
4. They would likely need to facility a third team receiving two or three of Saric, Crowder, Shamet, Payne, and Craig. That would need to happen with draft compensation from the Suns, which they probably do not have enough of.
5. On top of all that, Ayton is a terrible fit next to Simmons.
The Raptors offer can't really include Siakim because then they aren't good enough to win a championship. Their offer would have to be based around OG, salary filler, and 1sts.
The Heat offer is one 1st short of what other teams can offer and would have to include Robinson, who is not only on a negative value contract right now, but is very redundant with Harris, Mills, and Curry.
The Blazers offer can actually include an extra 1st. I think they can offer the best trade if they wait for a few months to include Simons. For them, it would be Bledsoe, Simons, Sharpe, Little (or Johnson), and 5 future 1sts. That would leave them Lillard-Payton-Grant-Durant-Nurkic.
I just don't think the Celtics would need to include Jaylen Brown in any trade offers (and I don't think I would anyway). I think they would need to include Smart, who is on the same level as the main piece included in these other offers (OG, Herro, Simons, Bridges). All of those guys are fringe all-stars, but they aren't high level two-way players. Smart is the best defensive player in the NBA, and he brings above average offense at his position. If Royce O'neale on an expiring is worth a 1st, how much is Smart worth on his contract?
For salary ballast, the Cs would need to include Horford as well, who I'm sure would be willing to take a buyout to join a contender.
The main problem is that the Cs have traded their pick swap in 28 and their 23 first. That means they could offer 24 and 26 swap with 25, 27, and 29 1sts. That's a pick short of what a few other teams could offer.
It really comes down to what the Nets prefer as far as the center piece of the trade. I could see some teams talking themselves into Smart over Herro, Simons, OG, and Bridges. Herro and Simons could both be young offensive players that you could sell your fans on. OG and Bridges are both very reliant on other players creating offense for them, but their defense is high level (although not on Smart's level).
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