The Matchup

[Goldstar88]

1 down, 3 to go! 

Also don't get me wrong. We definitely won't shoot like that every game. But GSW's defense looked real meh tonight. Not as good as those teams back when they had KD or even before 2016. I think we can put up points on them every game. Hell, Tatum shot 3-17 and the C's still put up 120

Took game 1 on the road against the Warriors with Tatum only scoring 12pts? Just Incredible.

[Phantom255x]

I know conventional wisdom would say that in a Finals series, the home team likely starts off extremely well in front of their home crowd and gets a solid win Game 1, then the desperate road team plays a close Game 2 and has a good chance of stealing it to make it 1-1.

I actually think we could see the opposite here. My gut feeling says Boston could steal Game 1.

Maybe Golden State starts a bit rusty since they've been off for a week, while the C's could have some momentum coming off a road Game 7 win and not too long of a layoff (but still enough to get some rest). Tbh I'd also be shocked if any of these teams were shooting lights out in Game 1, which potentially plays into Boston's favor since they are the better defensive team.

I think Boston comes out motivated and aggressive which could surprise Golden State a bit and so I could definitely see Boston taking Game 1, maybe something like a 106-102 final score.

Everyone seems to just assume Golden State will take Game 1 which has me thinking Boston could surprise folks there.

The last time the Celtics won a road game in the Finals, they set a record for 3-pointers made. Maybe they can break that record on the road again

Anyways, gotta steal Game 1. Will set the tune for the rest of the series.

Oh hey look at that, I got it right! 

Underestimated the C's score a bit but whatever, glad we got the win.

[Phantom255x]

Poole may still have 1 or 2 great games this series, but I think we saw a glimpse of why he isn't getting heavy minutes as much anymore. He gets abused on the defensive end. And if his shot isn't falling, he becomes a liability pretty quickly. Watching the 2nd half, Jaylen and White did well against him but also Poole had 4 bad turnovers and they all seemed to shift momentum back Boston's way including early in the 4th.

They may have gotten away with starting Poole and having him play 30+ MPG regularly against the Denver Jokics and the Grizzlies, but against a more balanced team like Boston it's not easy. Even some of Dallas' shooters alongside Doncic did well going up against him on offense.

[Goldstar88]

Well, I hope your right in your assessment. We'll see. I wouldn't refer to PER as a stat to support your position. PER is arguably the most deceptive and useless stat that exists. Consider that Greg Monroe has a higher career PER than Bill Russell and KAT has a higher PER than Bird and Magic.

PER is definitely a misleading stat. But there are other advanced ones which give us a pretty good read on things for the most part. RAPTOR, VORP, WAR and BPM stats are all helpful in their own way. Jaylen has the advantage in every single one except for offensive BPM.

Per possession he scores more on less shots, rebounds more, gets more assists, gets more steals and overall plays better defence. I don't really think Klay is that close to being his equal, especially as in the playoffs Brown has basically shot the 3 ball just as well as Klay.

Klay actually looked worse than I thought he would. Obviously he can still get you a bucket and his shot is silky smooth like Ray Allen, but his defense looked average and he finished the game with only 15pts, 3ast, and 2rebs in 39mins of play.

[KeepBigAl]

So much talk about the G State's huge edge in playoff experience, which I don't buy at all.  4 of the 5 Celtics starters have logged huge playoff miles - and the warriors have 2 key guys. Poole and Wiggins, with very limited experience. I see no edge there.

Also, despite all the praise he gets, at this point in his career, Draymond is living off past accomplishments.  He is a borderline starter who can still defend, but certainly no impact player.  His lack of shooting will only help the celtics lock in on the other guys.

Draymond is what makes this GS offence work. Without him they are essentially a .500 team over his career (54-51 in career games missed). No coincidence - his passing, short rolling and screening gets them so many looks.

He is a shell of his former self in all those skills  - and now a negative on offense.  Actually not even the 1-1 defender he used to be.  Glad he is on the other side.

[Erik]

I know there's much talk about Steph, Tatum, Brown & Klay because they're the stars, but TBH players like that are going to be hot/cold on any given night.

The one player that makes us a matchup challenge is actually Al Horford. His style is the perfect modern Big. That's not to say that he's the best big in the league, but it's to say that his specific toolset is ideal for 2022. He's quick, he can pass/dribble/shoot, he can shoot the 3, he can guard 1-5. If someone like Horford was entering the NBA Draft, they'd be very desirable IMO.

On GSW you have Draymond, who is a better defender, but lacks the 3 point shot. This allows whoever is guarding Draymond to cheat off him. Cheating on defense is extremely valuable when you've got a couple lights out 3 point shooters to defend. For example, it allows for traps on switches because the cheater can cover the open person if the trap fails.

The other thing is that not all defenses are created equally. While GSW has gotten a reputation for being a top defensive team, a defense is only as strong as the weakest defender. If you have a weakness on your defense, the offense will exploit it. We saw quite a bit of it, but the Celtics should be targeting Curry as their weakest defender and most ROI for defensive fouls. Either Tatum or JB melt him in a 1 on 1 forcing doubles / fouls and theoretically leading to an open 3 somewhere.

[Surferdad]

So much talk about the G State's huge edge in playoff experience, which I don't buy at all.  4 of the 5 Celtics starters have logged huge playoff miles - and the warriors have 2 key guys. Poole and Wiggins, with very limited experience. I see no edge there.

Also, despite all the praise he gets, at this point in his career, Draymond is living off past accomplishments.  He is a borderline starter who can still defend, but certainly no impact player.  His lack of shooting will only help the celtics lock in on the other guys.

Draymond is what makes this GS offence work. Without him they are essentially a .500 team over his career (54-51 in career games missed). No coincidence - his passing, short rolling and screening gets them so many looks.

He is a shell of his former self in all those skills  - and now a negative on offense.  Actually not even the 1-1 defender he used to be.  Glad he is on the other side.

Yeah, he didn't look so fearsome on the D side. In fact, I wonder if age/injuries are catching up to the Dubs in general.  They seemed out of gas in the 4th, and even the national broadcaster said the Celtics have "young legs" which could overcome the GSW shooting ability.

[Phantom255x]

So much talk about the G State's huge edge in playoff experience, which I don't buy at all.  4 of the 5 Celtics starters have logged huge playoff miles - and the warriors have 2 key guys. Poole and Wiggins, with very limited experience. I see no edge there.

Also, despite all the praise he gets, at this point in his career, Draymond is living off past accomplishments.  He is a borderline starter who can still defend, but certainly no impact player.  His lack of shooting will only help the celtics lock in on the other guys.

Draymond is what makes this GS offence work. Without him they are essentially a .500 team over his career (54-51 in career games missed). No coincidence - his passing, short rolling and screening gets them so many looks.

He is a shell of his former self in all those skills  - and now a negative on offense.  Actually not even the 1-1 defender he used to be.  Glad he is on the other side.

Yeah, he didn't look so fearsome on the D side. In fact, I wonder if age/injuries are catching up to the Dubs in general.  They seemed out of gas in the 4th, and even the national broadcaster said the Celtics have "young legs" which could overcome the GSW shooting ability.

I've seen this point bought up in the media and I actually wonder if it could be true. Obviously early on Curry was flying, getting good looks and exerting a lot of energy particularly on the offensive end. And he was obviously shooting well so he was red hot to start.

But is the strategy to essentially tire Curry out throughout the game and allow him to get his but neutralize the others? I mean, in the 4th Curry looked absolutely gassed. And he put up 34 in a losing effort where BOS won by 12. Maybe that's the gameplan? 

Now obviously this isn't to say the C's should simply leave him open, they definitely blew assignments early in the game. But the C's might be okay letting Curry get his (25+) so long as they can neutralize the others and put additional pressure on their main guys to put up points. The Warriors do have 3 other guys who can easily put up points (Poole, Wiggins, Klay) but if say, Poole is neutralized and the others aren't doing as well, you're asking a lot from Klay/Wiggins/Curry against a tough Boston defense every night.

[cman88]

So much talk about the G State's huge edge in playoff experience, which I don't buy at all.  4 of the 5 Celtics starters have logged huge playoff miles - and the warriors have 2 key guys. Poole and Wiggins, with very limited experience. I see no edge there.

Also, despite all the praise he gets, at this point in his career, Draymond is living off past accomplishments.  He is a borderline starter who can still defend, but certainly no impact player.  His lack of shooting will only help the celtics lock in on the other guys.

Draymond is what makes this GS offence work. Without him they are essentially a .500 team over his career (54-51 in career games missed). No coincidence - his passing, short rolling and screening gets them so many looks.

He is a shell of his former self in all those skills  - and now a negative on offense.  Actually not even the 1-1 defender he used to be.  Glad he is on the other side.

Yeah, he didn't look so fearsome on the D side. In fact, I wonder if age/injuries are catching up to the Dubs in general.  They seemed out of gas in the 4th, and even the national broadcaster said the Celtics have "young legs" which could overcome the GSW shooting ability.

I've seen this point bought up in the media and I actually wonder if it could be true. Obviously early on Curry was flying, getting good looks and exerting a lot of energy particularly on the offensive end. And he was obviously shooting well so he was red hot to start.

But is the strategy to essentially tire Curry out throughout the game and allow him to get his but neutralize the others? I mean, in the 4th Curry looked absolutely gassed. And he put up 34 in a losing effort where BOS won by 12. Maybe that's the gameplan? 

Now obviously this isn't to say the C's should simply leave him open, they definitely blew assignments early in the game. But the C's might be okay letting Curry get his (25+) so long as they can neutralize the others and put additional pressure on their main guys to put up points. The Warriors do have 3 other guys who can easily put up points (Poole, Wiggins, Klay) but if say, Poole is neutralized and the others aren't doing as well, you're asking a lot from Klay/Wiggins/Curry against a tough Boston defense every night.

I think curry looked tired in the 4th because after the first quarter we decided not to leave him wide open. We started getting up into him and staying tight on him. 21 in the first then 16 the rest of the game.

If we want to win game 2 And really put pressure on GSW then we need to not have the lapses like we did in the first and 3rd quarter. I mean we were only down 4 after curry's barrage. BUT we likely lead if we actually guarded him.

[LilRip]

So much talk about the G State's huge edge in playoff experience, which I don't buy at all.  4 of the 5 Celtics starters have logged huge playoff miles - and the warriors have 2 key guys. Poole and Wiggins, with very limited experience. I see no edge there.

Also, despite all the praise he gets, at this point in his career, Draymond is living off past accomplishments.  He is a borderline starter who can still defend, but certainly no impact player.  His lack of shooting will only help the celtics lock in on the other guys.

Draymond is what makes this GS offence work. Without him they are essentially a .500 team over his career (54-51 in career games missed). No coincidence - his passing, short rolling and screening gets them so many looks.

He is a shell of his former self in all those skills  - and now a negative on offense.  Actually not even the 1-1 defender he used to be.  Glad he is on the other side.

Yeah, he didn't look so fearsome on the D side. In fact, I wonder if age/injuries are catching up to the Dubs in general.  They seemed out of gas in the 4th, and even the national broadcaster said the Celtics have "young legs" which could overcome the GSW shooting ability.

I've seen this point bought up in the media and I actually wonder if it could be true. Obviously early on Curry was flying, getting good looks and exerting a lot of energy particularly on the offensive end. And he was obviously shooting well so he was red hot to start.

But is the strategy to essentially tire Curry out throughout the game and allow him to get his but neutralize the others? I mean, in the 4th Curry looked absolutely gassed. And he put up 34 in a losing effort where BOS won by 12. Maybe that's the gameplan? 

Now obviously this isn't to say the C's should simply leave him open, they definitely blew assignments early in the game. But the C's might be okay letting Curry get his (25+) so long as they can neutralize the others and put additional pressure on their main guys to put up points. The Warriors do have 3 other guys who can easily put up points (Poole, Wiggins, Klay) but if say, Poole is neutralized and the others aren't doing as well, you're asking a lot from Klay/Wiggins/Curry against a tough Boston defense every night.

I think curry looked tired in the 4th because after the first quarter we decided not to leave him wide open. We started getting up into him and staying tight on him. 21 in the first then 16 the rest of the game.

If we want to win game 2 And really put pressure on GSW then we need to not have the lapses like we did in the first and 3rd quarter. I mean we were only down 4 after curry's barrage. BUT we likely lead if we actually guarded him.

Agreed and on the other end, it’s also making curry guard. The C’s like to “hunt” mismatches and go iso from there. So they’re looking for poole and curry and pick on them. It feels really good having a team where the “worst” defensive mismatch is an elite shot blocker like Timelord .

[cman88]

So much talk about the G State's huge edge in playoff experience, which I don't buy at all.  4 of the 5 Celtics starters have logged huge playoff miles - and the warriors have 2 key guys. Poole and Wiggins, with very limited experience. I see no edge there.

Also, despite all the praise he gets, at this point in his career, Draymond is living off past accomplishments.  He is a borderline starter who can still defend, but certainly no impact player.  His lack of shooting will only help the celtics lock in on the other guys.

Draymond is what makes this GS offence work. Without him they are essentially a .500 team over his career (54-51 in career games missed). No coincidence - his passing, short rolling and screening gets them so many looks.

He is a shell of his former self in all those skills  - and now a negative on offense.  Actually not even the 1-1 defender he used to be.  Glad he is on the other side.

Yeah, he didn't look so fearsome on the D side. In fact, I wonder if age/injuries are catching up to the Dubs in general.  They seemed out of gas in the 4th, and even the national broadcaster said the Celtics have "young legs" which could overcome the GSW shooting ability.

I've seen this point bought up in the media and I actually wonder if it could be true. Obviously early on Curry was flying, getting good looks and exerting a lot of energy particularly on the offensive end. And he was obviously shooting well so he was red hot to start.

But is the strategy to essentially tire Curry out throughout the game and allow him to get his but neutralize the others? I mean, in the 4th Curry looked absolutely gassed. And he put up 34 in a losing effort where BOS won by 12. Maybe that's the gameplan? 

Now obviously this isn't to say the C's should simply leave him open, they definitely blew assignments early in the game. But the C's might be okay letting Curry get his (25+) so long as they can neutralize the others and put additional pressure on their main guys to put up points. The Warriors do have 3 other guys who can easily put up points (Poole, Wiggins, Klay) but if say, Poole is neutralized and the others aren't doing as well, you're asking a lot from Klay/Wiggins/Curry against a tough Boston defense every night.

I think curry looked tired in the 4th because after the first quarter we decided not to leave him wide open. We started getting up into him and staying tight on him. 21 in the first then 16 the rest of the game.

If we want to win game 2 And really put pressure on GSW then we need to not have the lapses like we did in the first and 3rd quarter. I mean we were only down 4 after curry's barrage. BUT we likely lead if we actually guarded him.

Agreed and on the other end, it’s also making curry guard. The C’s like to “hunt” mismatches and go iso from there. So they’re looking for poole and curry and pick on them. It feels really good having a team where the “worst” defensive mismatch is an elite shot blocker like Timelord .

I literally read a thread on Reddit where warriors fans said they need to keep attacking time Lord because he's a liability....now idk if most GSW fans are casual bandwagoners and I understand time Lord isn't 100% but to say he's a liability is comical.

We need to just communicate and play defense like we did in the 2nd and 4th

[Phantom255x]

It's pretty obvious the C's can put up points on this team. Tatum shot 3-17 and the C's still put up 120. Also, Draymond is a great defender and Wiggins + Iggy are pretty good too, but idk if Klay is the same level of a defender as he was like 4 years ago. He certainly looks slower/sluggish. I said going into the series that Jaylen could have a huge series. And he's already off to a good start.

I don't think Klay and their other guards can really defend Jaylen well, and as long as Jaylen isn't making too many dumb turnovers he can torch the Warriors particularly with the mid-range game, or driving inside and making the pass to the open guy. He did that a lot in the 2nd half and it was a huge reason we came back, before White, Horford and Smart put the finishing touches.

https://twitter.com/Tucker_TnL/status/1532820384105517057?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

Start of Q4 - Celtics trail 80-92

-BROWN 2
-BROWN 3
-Williams 2 (BROWN AST)
-Pritchard 2 (BROWN AST)
-BROWN 3
-BROWN 2
-Pritchard 3
-White 3 (BROWN AST)
-White 3 (BROWN AST)

5:40 Q4 - game tied 103-103

Total Jaylen Brown takeover.

[Hoopvortex]

...but idk if Klay is the same level of a defender as he was like 4 years ago. He certainly looks slower/sluggish.

I think that's a good observation.

Someone else was observing that GS looked tired as a team in the fourth, and I saw that as well. This is not just a function of Boston's physical defense, but also of the ball movement on offense.

Draymond's remark that they dominated for 42 minutes was a fantasy. He particularly looked inert with the Boston passing finding one open shooter after another in the 4th.

I cannot believe that we won't see better from the Warriors on Sunday, though.

[Phantom255x]

...but idk if Klay is the same level of a defender as he was like 4 years ago. He certainly looks slower/sluggish.

I think that's a good observation.

Someone else was observing that GS looked tired as a team in the fourth, and I saw that as well. This is not just a function of Boston's physical defense, but also of the ball movement on offense.

Draymond's remark that they dominated for 42 minutes was a fantasy. He particularly looked inert with the Boston passing finding one open shooter after another in the 4th.

I cannot believe that we won't see better from the Warriors on Sunday, though.

Oh yeah. Tbh I think Game 2 is a “scheduled loss” for us especially since we stole Game 1. But boy, if the C’s win Game 2 and go up 2-0 I’ll be over the moon lol.

[SparzWizard]

...but idk if Klay is the same level of a defender as he was like 4 years ago. He certainly looks slower/sluggish.

I think that's a good observation.

Someone else was observing that GS looked tired as a team in the fourth, and I saw that as well. This is not just a function of Boston's physical defense, but also of the ball movement on offense.

Draymond's remark that they dominated for 42 minutes was a fantasy. He particularly looked inert with the Boston passing finding one open shooter after another in the 4th.

I cannot believe that we won't see better from the Warriors on Sunday, though.

Oh yeah. Tbh I think Game 2 is a “scheduled loss” for us especially since we stole Game 1. But boy, if the C’s win Game 2 and go up 2-0 I’ll be over the moon lol.

Means the Warriors will have to win two in Boston, and knowing how we play at home...50/50 shot lol.

Still think C's in 6