What to do...

[Celtics2021]

So as it stands right now, BKN is in 10th and the best they could do is win two play in games and be the 8th seed, right?  So if we are 2 right now, 2 is better than 3 in any case (round 2 home court).  And 4 means MIA or BKN in the second round.  That isn't better than 2 seed is it?  My point is that now that BKN is going to be 8 at best, there is no reason to try and jockey to get to the 4 seed as was part of the original debate of "what to do".

The path of (if we are the 2 seed):

vs ATL/CLE, vs. MIL/PHI, @ MIA/BKN

is better than (if finish 3):

vs. TOR/CHI, @ MIL/PHI, @ MIA/BKN

or (if finish 4):

vs. TOR/CHI, @ MIA/BKN, @ PHI/MIL

If we hold on to 2 seed, that could mean the second round game 7 in Boston vs. on the road.  Everything else is pretty much the same.  I like the first round match up of ATL/CLE over TOR/CHI but not a huge difference.  And if we hold on to the 2 seed, we get PHI or MIL but with home court for game 7.  The 2 seed is clearly the best one to get.

When you look at 3 seed vs. 4 seed, the first round is TOR or CHI, can't control, doesn't make much difference but then it is just which of the top teams you have to go through first in the second round and ECF.  Probably don't have home court in any case.  At this point, there is no value in jockeying for position.  The best thing is to win and get the 2 seed.

I guess the only potential argument is that it might be better to face BRK in the second round rather than the Conference Finals.  There's a theoretical chance that Simmons could be back, and the later we face BRK, the better that chance is.  Additionally, maybe a healthy Timelord is more crucial against PHI/MIL than MIA/BRK?  The more time Timelord has, the better he'll be?

Can't BKN still finish 8th and play in to 7th ?

Technically yes, but they would need to go 4-0, while having Atlanta go 2-2, and also Charlotte would need to lose a game.  Not impossible, of course, but odds are against it.

[colincb]

So as it stands right now, BKN is in 10th and the best they could do is win two play in games and be the 8th seed, right?  So if we are 2 right now, 2 is better than 3 in any case (round 2 home court).  And 4 means MIA or BKN in the second round.  That isn't better than 2 seed is it?  My point is that now that BKN is going to be 8 at best, there is no reason to try and jockey to get to the 4 seed as was part of the original debate of "what to do".

The path of (if we are the 2 seed):

vs ATL/CLE, vs. MIL/PHI, @ MIA/BKN

is better than (if finish 3):

vs. TOR/CHI, @ MIL/PHI, @ MIA/BKN

or (if finish 4):

vs. TOR/CHI, @ MIA/BKN, @ PHI/MIL

If we hold on to 2 seed, that could mean the second round game 7 in Boston vs. on the road.  Everything else is pretty much the same.  I like the first round match up of ATL/CLE over TOR/CHI but not a huge difference.  And if we hold on to the 2 seed, we get PHI or MIL but with home court for game 7.  The 2 seed is clearly the best one to get.

When you look at 3 seed vs. 4 seed, the first round is TOR or CHI, can't control, doesn't make much difference but then it is just which of the top teams you have to go through first in the second round and ECF.  Probably don't have home court in any case.  At this point, there is no value in jockeying for position.  The best thing is to win and get the 2 seed.

I guess the only potential argument is that it might be better to face BRK in the second round rather than the Conference Finals.  There's a theoretical chance that Simmons could be back, and the later we face BRK, the better that chance is.  Additionally, maybe a healthy Timelord is more crucial against PHI/MIL than MIA/BRK?  The more time Timelord has, the better he'll be?

Can't BKN still finish 8th and play in to 7th ?

Technically yes, but they would need to go 4-0, while having Atlanta go 2-2, and also Charlotte would need to lose a game.  Not impossible, of course, but odds are against it.

This is incorrect. BRK has the H2H tiebreaker over ATL and, currently with one game to go between them, CLE. CHA has the tiebreaker over BRK. BRK has an easy schedule left playing CLE, HOU, and IND at home and NYK at MSG.

ATL has to win more games than BRK.

If ATL goes 3-1 and BRK goes 4-0, BRK has the tiebreaker. ATL has to play TOR and MIA on the road.

[Celtics2021]

So as it stands right now, BKN is in 10th and the best they could do is win two play in games and be the 8th seed, right?  So if we are 2 right now, 2 is better than 3 in any case (round 2 home court).  And 4 means MIA or BKN in the second round.  That isn't better than 2 seed is it?  My point is that now that BKN is going to be 8 at best, there is no reason to try and jockey to get to the 4 seed as was part of the original debate of "what to do".

The path of (if we are the 2 seed):

vs ATL/CLE, vs. MIL/PHI, @ MIA/BKN

is better than (if finish 3):

vs. TOR/CHI, @ MIL/PHI, @ MIA/BKN

or (if finish 4):

vs. TOR/CHI, @ MIA/BKN, @ PHI/MIL

If we hold on to 2 seed, that could mean the second round game 7 in Boston vs. on the road.  Everything else is pretty much the same.  I like the first round match up of ATL/CLE over TOR/CHI but not a huge difference.  And if we hold on to the 2 seed, we get PHI or MIL but with home court for game 7.  The 2 seed is clearly the best one to get.

When you look at 3 seed vs. 4 seed, the first round is TOR or CHI, can't control, doesn't make much difference but then it is just which of the top teams you have to go through first in the second round and ECF.  Probably don't have home court in any case.  At this point, there is no value in jockeying for position.  The best thing is to win and get the 2 seed.

I guess the only potential argument is that it might be better to face BRK in the second round rather than the Conference Finals.  There's a theoretical chance that Simmons could be back, and the later we face BRK, the better that chance is.  Additionally, maybe a healthy Timelord is more crucial against PHI/MIL than MIA/BRK?  The more time Timelord has, the better he'll be?

Can't BKN still finish 8th and play in to 7th ?

Technically yes, but they would need to go 4-0, while having Atlanta go 2-2, and also Charlotte would need to lose a game.  Not impossible, of course, but odds are against it.

This is incorrect. BRK has the H2H tiebreaker over ATL and, currently with one game to go between them, CLE. CHA has the tiebreaker over BRK. BRK has an easy schedule left playing CLE, HOU, and IND at home and NYK at MSG.

ATL has to win more games than BRK.

If ATL goes 3-1 and BRK goes 4-0, BRK has the tiebreaker. ATL has to play TOR and MIA on the road.

Yes, corrected in a different thread.  I must have reversed a score in my head when I was checking the head-to-heads.  Although a correction to you — Atlanta doesn’t need to win more games than Brooklyn, just merely the same or more, as they’re already up a game.

[colincb]

So as it stands right now, BKN is in 10th and the best they could do is win two play in games and be the 8th seed, right?  So if we are 2 right now, 2 is better than 3 in any case (round 2 home court).  And 4 means MIA or BKN in the second round.  That isn't better than 2 seed is it?  My point is that now that BKN is going to be 8 at best, there is no reason to try and jockey to get to the 4 seed as was part of the original debate of "what to do".

The path of (if we are the 2 seed):

vs ATL/CLE, vs. MIL/PHI, @ MIA/BKN

is better than (if finish 3):

vs. TOR/CHI, @ MIL/PHI, @ MIA/BKN

or (if finish 4):

vs. TOR/CHI, @ MIA/BKN, @ PHI/MIL

If we hold on to 2 seed, that could mean the second round game 7 in Boston vs. on the road.  Everything else is pretty much the same.  I like the first round match up of ATL/CLE over TOR/CHI but not a huge difference.  And if we hold on to the 2 seed, we get PHI or MIL but with home court for game 7.  The 2 seed is clearly the best one to get.

When you look at 3 seed vs. 4 seed, the first round is TOR or CHI, can't control, doesn't make much difference but then it is just which of the top teams you have to go through first in the second round and ECF.  Probably don't have home court in any case.  At this point, there is no value in jockeying for position.  The best thing is to win and get the 2 seed.

I guess the only potential argument is that it might be better to face BRK in the second round rather than the Conference Finals.  There's a theoretical chance that Simmons could be back, and the later we face BRK, the better that chance is.  Additionally, maybe a healthy Timelord is more crucial against PHI/MIL than MIA/BRK?  The more time Timelord has, the better he'll be?

Can't BKN still finish 8th and play in to 7th ?

Technically yes, but they would need to go 4-0, while having Atlanta go 2-2, and also Charlotte would need to lose a game.  Not impossible, of course, but odds are against it.

This is incorrect. BRK has the H2H tiebreaker over ATL and, currently with one game to go between them, CLE. CHA has the tiebreaker over BRK. BRK has an easy schedule left playing CLE, HOU, and IND at home and NYK at MSG.

ATL has to win more games than BRK.

If ATL goes 3-1 and BRK goes 4-0, BRK has the tiebreaker. ATL has to play TOR and MIA on the road.

Yes, corrected in a different thread.  I must have reversed a score in my head when I was checking the head-to-heads.  Although a correction to you — Atlanta doesn’t need to win more games than Brooklyn, just merely the same or more, as they’re already up a game.

You are correct. ATL only has to win as many games as BKN, but they have a harder schedule including games away at TOR and MIA.

[Phantom255x]

Okay change of plans.

TANK for the 4 seed

[Celtics2021]

Okay change of plans.

TANK for the 4 seed

So we can get Toronto?   No thanks.  Top 3 seed is still best.

That said, I still think the Celtics should sit Brown, Tatum, and Horford tomorrow and play them Thursday against the Bucks.  The Bulls have nothing to play for, as there’s little difference between the 5th and 6th seed, which are their only options, and coming off a back-to-back they should rest some guys, and our skeleton crew might beat theirs.  Then play the starters vs. Milwaukee as a final playoff tuneup, and rest Sunday.  Since every other game will be decided, the backups can play hard for three quarters and either throw the fourth or try to win it, depending on what matchup the C’s would prefer.

I should say I think the C’s have set up this strategy by listing Tatum, Brown, and Horford on the injury report, since “load management” is now frowned upon.

[Goldstar88]

Okay change of plans.

TANK for the 4 seed

So we can get Toronto?   No thanks.  Top 3 seed is still best.

That said, I still think the Celtics should sit Brown, Tatum, and Horford tomorrow and play them Thursday against the Bucks.  The Bulls have nothing to play for, as there’s little difference between the 5th and 6th seed, which are their only options, and coming off a back-to-back they should rest some guys, and our skeleton crew might beat theirs.  Then play the starters vs. Milwaukee as a final playoff tuneup, and rest Sunday.  Since every other game will be decided, the backups can play hard for three quarters and either throw the fourth or try to win it, depending on what matchup the C’s would prefer.

I should say I think the C’s have set up this strategy by listing Tatum, Brown, and Horford on the injury report, since “load management” is now frowned upon.

Yeah, I’d rather face Toronto first round and potentially Miami second round vs playing Brooklyn or Cleveland first round and then Milwaukee second.  The latter is worst case scenario.

[SparzWizard]

Okay change of plans.

TANK for the 4 seed

So we can get Toronto?   No thanks.  Top 3 seed is still best.

That said, I still think the Celtics should sit Brown, Tatum, and Horford tomorrow and play them Thursday against the Bucks.  The Bulls have nothing to play for, as there’s little difference between the 5th and 6th seed, which are their only options, and coming off a back-to-back they should rest some guys, and our skeleton crew might beat theirs.  Then play the starters vs. Milwaukee as a final playoff tuneup, and rest Sunday.  Since every other game will be decided, the backups can play hard for three quarters and either throw the fourth or try to win it, depending on what matchup the C’s would prefer.

I should say I think the C’s have set up this strategy by listing Tatum, Brown, and Horford on the injury report, since “load management” is now frowned upon.

Yeah, I’d rather face Toronto first round and potentially Miami second round vs playing Brooklyn or Cleveland first round and then Milwaukee second.  The latter is worst case scenario.

Don't forget, face Toronto and they'd carry the baggage of who is unvaccinated. If Brown is unvaccinated then he won't be able to travel to Canada for Games 3, 4 and 6.

Just give us Chicago and then Cleveland lol. Hope Brooklyn misses the playoffs entirely but doubtful. Better if Brooklyn faces the juggernaut of Philly or Milwaukee in the first-round. I feel like Miami is a waste of spot for the 1-seed as they look like they could crumble at any time.

[#1P4P]

There hasn’t been a team that has been an overtly bad matchup. It’s been the best in the East against playoff teams and our defense travels.

Milwaukee, Brooklyn, and the Heat will be the toughest draws for different reasons (in that order). I prefer the Hornets, Cavs, Raptors, or Hawks in the 1st round (in that order).

I think we matchup well with every team though so I’m not worried about seeding, only the Bucks (because of Giannis) can stop us from going to the Finals this season and we matchup well against them too.

[colincb]

Okay change of plans.

TANK for the 4 seed

So we can get Toronto?   No thanks.  Top 3 seed is still best.

That said, I still think the Celtics should sit Brown, Tatum, and Horford tomorrow and play them Thursday against the Bucks.  The Bulls have nothing to play for, as there’s little difference between the 5th and 6th seed, which are their only options, and coming off a back-to-back they should rest some guys, and our skeleton crew might beat theirs.  Then play the starters vs. Milwaukee as a final playoff tuneup, and rest Sunday.  Since every other game will be decided, the backups can play hard for three quarters and either throw the fourth or try to win it, depending on what matchup the C’s would prefer.

I should say I think the C’s have set up this strategy by listing Tatum, Brown, and Horford on the injury report, since “load management” is now frowned upon.

TP. Good idea.

[Vermont Green]

Wow, this all changed fast.  Now we are lined up to have BKN in the first round.  I don't care how you slice it, that is the worst possible first round match up.  Yes, TOR is hot and CHI is no push over but I still rather avoid the Nets in the first round.  BKN is unpredictable, they have been inconsistent, but their ceiling is higher than any other team.

I still can't say that trying to "rest" players as a way to game the standings is the way to go.  BKN may still end up #8.  The only way to avoid them for sure is to end up the 4 seed.  I am still going to hope for the best case scenario which is Celtics get the 2 seed and BKN gets the 8 seed.

[Roy H.]

I still can't say that trying to "rest" players as a way to game the standings is the way to go.  BKN may still end up #8.  The only way to avoid them for sure is to end up the 4 seed. I am still going to hope for the best case scenario which is Celtics get the 2 seed and BKN gets the 8 seed.

The #3 works as well, correct?

[jambr380]

Okay change of plans.

TANK for the 4 seed

I'm pretty sure every game last night went the opposite of how I want each to go. For that reason, I generally agree with you. I am happy with #4, as it will give us MIA in the 2nd round and they are my preferred match-up of the three top teams. Going for #2 is now too risky as BKN pulled back into 8th place last night.

[Goldstar88]

Okay change of plans.

TANK for the 4 seed

So we can get Toronto?   No thanks.  Top 3 seed is still best.

That said, I still think the Celtics should sit Brown, Tatum, and Horford tomorrow and play them Thursday against the Bucks.  The Bulls have nothing to play for, as there’s little difference between the 5th and 6th seed, which are their only options, and coming off a back-to-back they should rest some guys, and our skeleton crew might beat theirs.  Then play the starters vs. Milwaukee as a final playoff tuneup, and rest Sunday.  Since every other game will be decided, the backups can play hard for three quarters and either throw the fourth or try to win it, depending on what matchup the C’s would prefer.

I should say I think the C’s have set up this strategy by listing Tatum, Brown, and Horford on the injury report, since “load management” is now frowned upon.

Yeah, I’d rather face Toronto first round and potentially Miami second round vs playing Brooklyn or Cleveland first round and then Milwaukee second.  The latter is worst case scenario.

Don't forget, face Toronto and they'd carry the baggage of who is unvaccinated. If Brown is unvaccinated then he won't be able to travel to Canada for Games 3, 4 and 6.

Just give us Chicago and then Cleveland lol. Hope Brooklyn misses the playoffs entirely but doubtful. Better if Brooklyn faces the juggernaut of Philly or Milwaukee in the first-round. I feel like Miami is a waste of spot for the 1-seed as they look like they could crumble at any time.

Unless he’s pulling an Aaron Rodgers, it sounds like he will be able to play in Toronto.

Jay King: Asked about his vaccination status, Jaylen Brown pointed out he missed the playoffs last year. He said he’s “ready to play against anybody” in the playoffs, implying he would be able to play in Toronto. But he said he won’t comment on his vaccination status or anyone else’s.

[Kernewek]

Okay change of plans.

TANK for the 4 seed

I'm pretty sure every game last night went the opposite of how I want each to go. For that reason, I generally agree with you. I am happy with #4, as it will give us MIA in the 2nd round and they are my preferred match-up of the three top teams. Going for #2 is now too risky as BKN pulled back into 8th place last night.

Do we think that the difference between beating BKN or going out early is a healthy Timerlord? If not, why duck them?