Has Tatum elevated into top 10 player in the NBA status?

[nickagneta]

Tatum with 54 points today to lead the Celtics to yet another win. Since the start of 2022 Tatum is putting up 26.6/4.8/7.9 numbers. The team is 21-8 in that time and have the best defense going away. And recently, Tatum has come alive leading the team to wins versus tough opponents like Philly, Atlanta, Memphis and Brooklyn.

Jayson just turned 24 and could be heading to his 3rd ECF if the team's excellent play continues.

I think if Tatum isn't at a top 10 player level right now, he isn't any lower than 12. The rest of the season should probably help us determine the true answer to the question but my green goggles are telling me he is top 10 right now.

[ScoobyDoo]

It's a good question. I'll reply with another question; are there nine other players you'd rather have on your team in a seven game series?

I can't think of many and it's because Tatum does everything (score, pass, rebound, defend), he's very young and he has the clutch gene.

He might be top 5.     

[SparzWizard]

It's a good question. I'll reply with another question; are there nine other players you'd rather have on your team in a seven game series?

I can't think of many and it's because Tatum does everything (score, pass, rebound, defend), he's very young and he has the clutch gene.

He might be top 5.   

LeBron, Giannis, Kawhi, Doncic, Jokic, Trae Young, Embiid, Durant, Harden, Curry, Ja Morant in no particular order...Tatum's in tough competition right now.

[Muzzy66]

It's a good question. I'll reply with another question; are there nine other players you'd rather have on your team in a seven game series?

I can't think of many and it's because Tatum does everything (score, pass, rebound, defend), he's very young and he has the clutch gene.

He might be top 5.   

LeBron, Giannis, Kawhi, Doncic, Jokic, Trae Young, Embiid, Durant, Harden, Curry, Ja Morant in no particular order...Tatum's in tough competition right now.

Of the guys on that list, I would say Giannis, Lebron, Doncic, Jokic, Embiid, Durant and Curry are the only guys who are clearly one step above Tatum.

I'd say Tatum is at least on the same level right now as Kawhi, Harden, Morant and Trae.  Kawhi / Harden are not the players they were 2-3 years ago.  Tatum offers similar scoring ability to Trae and Morant and adds to that a level of defensive versatility that those guys could never match.

There may be players who do some individual things better then Tatum does, but his overall versatility on both ends of the court is extremely rare and valuable. 

Tatum can pretty much switch every position defensively in today's undersized league, and can score from anywhere (from three, from midrange, off the drive, in the paint and at the foul line), he's a strong rebounder for his size/position, he's an impressive ball handler, and he's starting to develop into an impressive passer as well. On top of that he's also shown an ability to make big plays i n the clutch.

Kid is unbelievably talented, and at 23/24 he is still got a good 2-3 years of development before he hits his ceiling.  There's really on telling how good he could be.

[Surferdad]

It's a good question. I'll reply with another question; are there nine other players you'd rather have on your team in a seven game series?

I can't think of many and it's because Tatum does everything (score, pass, rebound, defend), he's very young and he has the clutch gene.

He might be top 5.   

LeBron, Giannis, Kawhi, Doncic, Jokic, Trae Young, Embiid, Durant, Harden, Curry, Ja Morant in no particular order...Tatum's in tough competition right now.

Of the guys on that list, I would say Giannis, Lebron, Doncic, Jokic, Embiid, Durant and Curry are the only guys who are clearly one step above Tatum.

I'd say Tatum is at least on the same level right now as Kawhi, Harden, Morant and Trae.  Kawhi / Harden are not the players they were 2-3 years ago.  Tatum offers similar scoring ability to Trae and Morant and adds to that a level of defensive versatility that those guys could never match.

There may be players who do some individual things better then Tatum does, but his overall versatility on both ends of the court is extremely rare and valuable. 

Tatum can pretty much switch every position defensively in today's undersized league, and can score from anywhere (from three, from midrange, off the drive, in the paint and at the foul line), he's a strong rebounder for his size/position, he's an impressive ball handler, and he's starting to develop into an impressive passer as well. On top of that he's also shown an ability to make big plays i n the clutch.

Kid is unbelievably talented, and at 23/24 he is still got a good 2-3 years of development before he hits his ceiling.  There's really on telling how good he could be.

Yes, agree with that and good post overall to include more than just scoring. I'll add that Kawhi hasn't played this season and that Tatum just demonstrated his superiority to Morant. That means Tatum just squeaks in:
1-7 (in no particular order): Giannis, Lebron, Doncic, Jokic, Embiid, Durant, Curry
8-10 (in no particular order): Tatum, Trae, Harden
Outside top-10: Morant
This is my take today, i.e. this season. Ja is great, but still has a ways to go, though that's just my  opinion. I bet he cracks the top-10 in MVP voting.

[Csfan1984]

Last 30 games he is top 5 for me. Averaging 27.4 pts, 7.9 rebs, 6.9 ast on 46.7 fg% with elite defense.

For context
-Three more pts per game and he is scoring leader.
-Two more rebs per game and he is top 15 rebs per.
-One more ast and he is top 9 in ast.

Some season awareness
-Season pt total he only trails DeRozan for 2nd in the NBA.
-Season reb total he is top 15.
-New ball, league play style, COVID, and system/coach has to attribute to some of his slow start this year so we should judge him on how things finish more than they started. Christmas is a good season marker.

With all that said when we look at the candidates for top ten most can't defend let alone be considered elite defenders. So I have things

1-5: Giannis, Curry, Embiid, KD, Tatum
6-10: Jokic, Morant, LeBron, Luka, DeRozan
HM: Towns, Young, Harden

If Tatum continues his tear and C's get the one seed in the East he should be the MVP.

[Roy H.]

Last 30 games he is top 5 for me. Averaging 27.4 pts, 7.9 rebs, 6.9 ast on 46.7 fg% with elite defense.

Where are you getting those numbers?  I don't think Tatum has averaged more than 5.0 assists in any month so far.  Typo?

[slamtheking]

It's a good question. I'll reply with another question; are there nine other players you'd rather have on your team in a seven game series?

I can't think of many and it's because Tatum does everything (score, pass, rebound, defend), he's very young and he has the clutch gene.

He might be top 5.   

LeBron, Giannis, Kawhi, Doncic, Jokic, Trae Young, Embiid, Durant, Harden, Curry, Ja Morant in no particular order...Tatum's in tough competition right now.

Of the guys on that list, I would say Giannis, Lebron, Doncic, Jokic, Embiid, Durant and Curry are the only guys who are clearly one step above Tatum.

I'd say Tatum is at least on the same level right now as Kawhi, Harden, Morant and Trae.  Kawhi / Harden are not the players they were 2-3 years ago.  Tatum offers similar scoring ability to Trae and Morant and adds to that a level of defensive versatility that those guys could never match.

There may be players who do some individual things better then Tatum does, but his overall versatility on both ends of the court is extremely rare and valuable. 

Tatum can pretty much switch every position defensively in today's undersized league, and can score from anywhere (from three, from midrange, off the drive, in the paint and at the foul line), he's a strong rebounder for his size/position, he's an impressive ball handler, and he's starting to develop into an impressive passer as well. On top of that he's also shown an ability to make big plays i n the clutch.

Kid is unbelievably talented, and at 23/24 he is still got a good 2-3 years of development before he hits his ceiling.  There's really on telling how good he could be.

Yes, agree with that and good post overall to include more than just scoring. I'll add that Kawhi hasn't played this season and that Tatum just demonstrated his superiority to Morant. That means Tatum just squeaks in:
1-7 (in no particular order): Giannis, Lebron, Doncic, Jokic, Embiid, Durant, Curry
8-10 (in no particular order): Tatum, Trae, Harden
Outside top-10: Morant
This is my take today, i.e. this season. Ja is great, but still has a ways to go, though that's just my  opinion. I bet he cracks the top-10 in MVP voting.

pretty fair assessment.  Personally, I'd only have Giannis, Jokic, Durant and Curry as a clear step above.
- Lebron is not who he once was and doesn't bring it the entire game like he used to.  I'd say current Tatum is at Lebron's current level
- Doncic is a more complete offensive player but Tatum's rebounding and defense are clearly superior and his passing has improved enough that I don't see Doncic as a better overall player than current Tatum
- Embiid is a monster but his durability is what I question.  if healthy, Embiid is the better player but if his minutes are limited or injured, he's not having the same impact as current Tatum.
- Trae, Harden, Ja -- great shooters/scorers.  not nearly the defenders that Tatum is.  Tatum is the superior player to all of them.
- having said all that, depending on whether Current Tatum becomes Usual-Tatum, I could see him passing Curry based on overall game impact.  Curry's shooting gives his team a chance to win every game but he's not the defender Tatum is so I could see Tatum passing him in the near future from an analytical standpoint though from a "name" perspective, Curry will considered better for a while going forward.

[Celtics2021]

Last 30 games he is top 5 for me. Averaging 27.4 pts, 7.9 rebs, 6.9 ast on 46.7 fg% with elite defense.

Where are you getting those numbers?  I don't think Tatum has averaged more than 5.0 assists in any month so far.  Typo?

He must have read it wrong.  Per NBA.com, in his last 30 JT has averaged 27.4/7.8/4.7

https://www.nba.com/stats/players/traditional/?sort=PTS&dir=-1&Season=2021-22&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&DateFrom=12%2F23%2F2021&DateTo=03%2F07%2F2022&TeamID=1610612738

[td450]

I rather see a guy that has had the franchise built around him, and now, the fit and finish adjustments are starting to pay off. We all knew Tatum would start shooting better at some point. It sure looks to me like everyone has taken up up a notch and the team now is much better across the board.

Tatum definitely deserves his share of the credit, but its hard not to see improvement everywhere you look.

[Atzar]

It's a good question. I'll reply with another question; are there nine other players you'd rather have on your team in a seven game series?

I can't think of many and it's because Tatum does everything (score, pass, rebound, defend), he's very young and he has the clutch gene.

He might be top 5.   

LeBron, Giannis, Kawhi, Doncic, Jokic, Trae Young, Embiid, Durant, Harden, Curry, Ja Morant in no particular order...Tatum's in tough competition right now.

He’s better than Trae and Ja, and he’s better than Harden unless dude gets in shape and plays solid defense again.  Basketball is played at both ends and a bucket prevented is as good as a bucket scored.  Kawhi doesn’t belong here… always hurt. 

That just leaves the other 8, and IMO Doncic is a push (both are comparatively inefficient scorers, Doncic is a superior playmaker but again, Tatum is elite at both ends of the court). 

Worth noting that advanced stats have loved this dude for a while now.  Yeah, I have him top 10 this year… even with the slow start.

[Celtics2021]

For what it's worth, Hoopshype did a survey of NBA front offices in the offseason and had them rate publicly-available advanced stat metrics.  There were four metrics that were used by one or more front offices as their primary go-to metric: RAPTOR, LEBRON, EPM, and, DPM.  Tatum ranked 6th, 8th, 10th, and 11th in those four, respectively.  However, DPM uses a lot of past performance in its ranking (which is probably why it's the most trusted in the NBA because it is less subject to the effects of small sample-size), but that means that it has Kawhi, who hasn't played this season and is likely out all year, ranks ahead of Tatum based on past performance.  So of players who've seen at least one minute of action this year, Tatum was top-10 in all 4.  There were 19 players in the top ten of at least one of these metrics (excluding the injured Kawhi), but Tatum was one of only 5 to make the top-10 in all four.

In other words, analytics would give a pretty resounding yes that Tatum is top-10, but probably not top 5.

Note: I used the per-minute values for all of these rankings at whatever default minutes a particular stat used.  But Tatum has also played a ton of minutes, and scores even higher when you use a total wins version of these stats, rather than something which is minutes or possessions-adjusted.  He's top 5 in the three stats (Raptor, LEBRON, and EPM) that offer this calculation.

[Roy H.]

For what it's worth, Hoopshype did a survey of NBA front offices in the offseason and had them rate publicly-available advanced stat metrics.  There were four metrics that were used by one or more front offices as their primary go-to metric: RAPTOR, LEBRON, EPM, and, DPM.  Tatum ranked 6th, 8th, 10th, and 11th in those four, respectively.  However, DPM uses a lot of past performance in its ranking (which is probably why it's the most trusted in the NBA because it is less subject to the effects of small sample-size), but that means that it has Kawhi, who hasn't played this season and is likely out all year, ranks ahead of Tatum based on past performance.  So of players who've seen at least one minute of action this year, Tatum was top-10 in all 4.  There were 19 players in the top ten of at least one of these metrics (excluding the injured Kawhi), but Tatum was one of only 5 to make the top-10 in all four.

In other words, analytics would give a pretty resounding yes that Tatum is top-10, but probably not top 5.

Note: I used the per-minute values for all of these rankings at whatever default minutes a particular stat used.  But Tatum has also played a ton of minutes, and scores even higher when you use a total wins version of these stats, rather than something which is minutes or possessions-adjusted.  He's top 5 in the three stats (Raptor, LEBRON, and EPM) that offer this calculation.

I suspect that the vast majority of front offices don't use any of those crap metrics. 

“I don’t really use any,” said one executive, who is the president of basketball operations for a team in the Eastern Conference. “They are all pretty bad.”

I truly hope no team is using an "all in one metric" for player evaluation. 

[Moranis]

He is where he has been all year i.e. on the cusp of the top 10, perhaps in it, perhaps just out of it depending on preference and how you count the injured players.

Guys clearly better than Tatum:

Giannis, Durant, Curry, James, Embiid, Jokic


Guys probably better than Tatum:

Harden, Butler


Guys better than or probably better than Tatum when healthy:

Leonard, Davis, George, WIlliamson


When healthy guys in the same general range as Tatum:

Doncic, Morant, Beal, Lillard, Paul, Booker, Mitchell, Young, Irving, Towns

[Roy H.]

He is where he has been all year i.e. on the cusp of the top 10, perhaps in it, perhaps just out of it depending on preference and how you count the injured players.

Guys clearly better than Tatum:

Giannis, Durant, Curry, James, Embiid, Jokic


Guys probably better than Tatum:

Harden, Butler


Guys better than or probably better than Tatum when healthy:

Leonard, Davis, George, WIlliamson


When healthy guys in the same general range as Tatum:

Doncic, Morant, Beal, Lillard, Paul, Booker, Mitchell, Young, Irving, Towns

I'm not at all convinced that Butler, George or Williamson are "probably" better than Tatum when healthy.