Celtics luxury tax and roster space update

[Celtics2021]

With Jaylen Brown missing the All-Star game, the Celtics should now be able to add more players to their roster without risk of running into the luxury tax.  Brown still has a number of other bonuses, and Derrick White has some himself, but the C's should be able to make conservative assumptions about these bonuses and still have room.  These bonuses include:

Jaylen Brown:
$482,143 -- 65+ games played.  Jaylen would need to play 19 of the final 22 games to meet this bonus.  Not a given, but presumably yes.
$964,286 -- 65+ games AND 49+wins AND 2nd round of playoffs.  The Celtics would need to go 15-7 in the final 22 to reach the wins requirement.  Not a given, but within the team's abilities.  Obviously there's no way for the Celtics to know about the 2nd round of the playoffs while they can still add players, so they'll assume the latter as a yes.  One thing that isn't clear -- I believe the bonus is $482,143 for the wins requirement and another $482,143 for the playoff requirement, so they could be earned separately, but it might be that they're lumped together as one.  Public reporting has been questionable on this point.
$1,446,428 -- 65+ games played AND All Star, All-NBA, MVP, DPOY -- Jaylen missed the All-Star game, and the other three ways to earn this bonus don't seem to be in the cards this season.

Derrick White:
$500,000 -- 70+ games played.  White would need to play in 17 of the final 22 games to earn this bonus.  The Celtics are likely calculating him as making this mark, even though it is currently classified as unlikely for cap purposes.
$250,000 -- All-Defense.  White is a very good defender, although All-NBA tends to be a crapshoot.  I imagine the C's will plan on White meeting this incentive so as to not hit the tax.
$500,000 -- 185+ 3-pointers.  White has made 87 3s on the year, averaging 1.6 made per game.  He would need to hit 98 more threes in the final 22 games, roughly 4.5 3's per game.  He'd have to nearly triple 3-point rate over the final quarter of the season to meet this incentive.  While technically not impossible, I would be surprised if the Celtics have this bonus budgeted in for tax purposes.

Accounting for the $1,446,429 in bonuses Jaylen still has a reasonable chance of earning, as well as the $750,000 in bonuses White can still earn, the C's are left with $1,449,142 in tax space for the rest of the season.  This is a little less than the amount needed to sign three players to rest-of-year contracts immediately, but they shouldn't have trouble avoiding the tax if they sign someone to one immediately out of break (they need to have at least added a 10-day by Thursday to meet minimum roster size).  By the time other players have cleared buyouts, the C's should be able to add another player immediately, and a third within a few days.  That said, my prediction is that they will sign someone they like to a 10-day contract coming out of the break, keeping the other two options open for buyout.  If they're able to get 2 buyouts, the 10-day player won't be immediately renewed, and the team will go with 14 for March, filling the final spot in the final days of the season depending on team needs heading into the playoffs.  If they are only able to get one player they like off of buyouts, the 10-day player will be renewed and probably ultimately signed to a rest of season deal, maybe with some sort of option for next season.  If they strike out on buyouts, look for the person they add next week to be converted to a rest of season deal, as well as two other G-leagues in March/early April.

[Roy H.]

Good info.  Well-done.

[Donoghus]

Informative stuff.  Thanks.

[todd_days_41]

Thanks, Cs2021.

With the recent commitments to White and Theis, could you share a POV on the Cs cap and / or lux tax situation for next season, assuming we keep Al Horford? Trying to get a sense of what options the Cs will have to add talent this offseason.... and which ownership is actually likely to sign up for.

Looks like the Cs have $146M committed for next year already without holds, and $134M committed even if they release / don't stretch Al Horford 

[Celtics2021]

Thanks, Cs2021.

With the recent commitments to White and Theis, could you share a POV on the Cs cap and / or lux tax situation for next season, assuming we keep Al Horford? Trying to get a sense of what options the Cs will have to add talent this offseason.... and which ownership is actually likely to sign up for.

Sure.  The simplest take is that the C's addition of Theis indicates that ownership told management something to the effect of: get us under the tax this season, and you can go into it next season.  If the C's don't release Horford, they are almost assuredly a tax team.  They're over the tax line by a few million with only 10 players on the roster and the only expiring is Grant Williams (and maybe Nesmith/Pritchard if options aren't picked up), so it wouldn't be easy to make moves at the deadline to get under the limit.

The more nuanced option for retaining Horford is releasing him, taking the $14.5 million cap hit in the process, and then resigning him to something less than the remaining $12 million he's owed.  Obviously, Horford has to be willing to resign in this event.  He may be -- his career is nearing it's end, and the last time he left Boston for more money elsewhere didn't wind up being fulfilling.  The best for the Celtics would be for him to agree to a 1-year vet minimum.  This would allow the C's to keep Horford for ~$16.3 million, either keeping them from hitting the tax, or (more hopefully) giving them room to use a large amount of the Fournier TPE to add a player while winding $5-10 million above the tax.  It should also be noted that if the C's make the finals this spring (something that is possible but if I remember your posts you find highly unlikely), Horford's guarantee jumps to $19.5 million, and if they win it all, which is unlikely from any perspective, it would be fully guaranteed.

I do think the Theis acquisition signaled that the Celtics don't expect to pay Horford $26.5 million next season.   Maybe they'll release and resign, as described above.  Maybe he'll be traded.  Maybe he'll be stretched, clearing ~$21.7 million from the books, and giving the C's room to use virtually all of the Fournier exception and remain under the tax.  If the C's wanted just a back-up big, there were other options that weren't owed mid-level money next year and beyond.  Flexibility is an overused buzzword, but Theis gives the Celtics some flexibility in what to do with Horford.

As for White, he'll make about $1.5 million less than Richardson and Langford combined, give or take a performance bonus as described in the OP.  A minimum salary vet is $1.8 million, so White + vet is about the same cost as Richardson + Langford.  In other words, the White acquisition has a negligible effect on the tax situation for next year.

[keevsnick]

With Jaylen Brown missing the All-Star game, the Celtics should now be able to add more players to their roster without risk of running into the luxury tax.  Brown still has a number of other bonuses, and Derrick White has some himself, but the C's should be make conservative assumptions about these bonuses and still have room.  These bonuses include:

Jaylen Brown:
$482,143 -- 65+ games played.  Jaylen would need to play 19 of the final 22 games to meet this bonus.  Not a given, but presumably yes.
$964,286 -- 65+ games AND 49+wins AND 2nd round of playoffs.  The Celtics would need to go 15-7 in the final 22 to reach the wins requirement.  Not a given, but within the team's abilities.  Obviously there's no way for the Celtics to know about the 2nd round of the playoffs while they can still add players, so they'll assume the latter as a yes.  One thing that isn't clear -- I believe the bonus is $482,143 for the wins requirement and another $482,143 for the playoff requirement, so they could be earned separately, but it might be that they're lumped together as one.  Public reporting has been questionable on this point.
$1,446,428 -- All Star, All-NBA, MVP, DPOY -- Jaylen missed the All-Star game, and the other three ways to earn this bonus don't seem to be in the cards this season.

Derrick White:
$500,000 -- 70+ games played.  White would need to play in 17 of the final 22 games to earn this bonus.  The Celtics are likely calculating him as making this mark, even though it is currently classified as unlikely for cap purposes.
$250,000 -- All-Defense.  White is a very good defender, although All-NBA tends to be a crapshoot.  I imagine the C's will plan on White meeting this incentive so as to not hit the tax.
$500,000 -- 185+ 3-pointers.  White has made 87 3s on the year, averaging 1.6 made per game.  He would need to hit 98 more threes in the final 22 games, roughly 4.5 3's per game.  He'd have to nearly triple 3-point rate over the final quarter of the season to meet this incentive.  While technically not impossible, I would be surprised if the Celtics have this bonus budgeted in for tax purposes.

Accounting for the $1,446,429 in bonuses Jaylen still has a reasonable chance of earning, as well as the $750,000 in bonuses White can still earn, the C's are left with $1,449,142 in tax space for the rest of the season.  This is a little less than the amount needed to sign three players to rest-of-year contracts immediately, but they shouldn't have trouble avoiding the tax if they sign someone to one immediately out of break (they need to have at least added a 10-day by Thursday to meet minimum roster size).  By the time other players have cleared buyouts, the C's should be able to add another player immediately, and a third within a few days.  That said, my prediction is that they will sign someone they like to a 10-day contract coming out of the break, keeping the other two options open for buyout.  If they're able to get 2 buyouts, the 10-day player won't be immediately renewed, and the team will go with 14 for March, filling the final spot in the final days of the season depending on team needs heading into the playoffs.  If they are only able to get one player they like off of buyouts, the 10-day player will be renewed and probably ultimately signed to a rest of season deal, maybe with some sort of option for next season.  If they strike out on buyouts, look for the person they add next week to be converted to a rest of season deal, as well as two other G-leagues in March/early April.

Minor detail: Are we sure the wins/playoff bonus is connected to games played bonus? Like if he played 64 games but the team won 49 and made the 2nd round would he still get the bonus? In reporting I've seen it listed as 49 wins AND 2nd round which makes those two seem connected, but not 49 AND 2nd round AND 65 games played.

[Celtics2021]

With Jaylen Brown missing the All-Star game, the Celtics should now be able to add more players to their roster without risk of running into the luxury tax.  Brown still has a number of other bonuses, and Derrick White has some himself, but the C's should be make conservative assumptions about these bonuses and still have room.  These bonuses include:

Jaylen Brown:
$482,143 -- 65+ games played.  Jaylen would need to play 19 of the final 22 games to meet this bonus.  Not a given, but presumably yes.
$964,286 -- 65+ games AND 49+wins AND 2nd round of playoffs.  The Celtics would need to go 15-7 in the final 22 to reach the wins requirement.  Not a given, but within the team's abilities.  Obviously there's no way for the Celtics to know about the 2nd round of the playoffs while they can still add players, so they'll assume the latter as a yes.  One thing that isn't clear -- I believe the bonus is $482,143 for the wins requirement and another $482,143 for the playoff requirement, so they could be earned separately, but it might be that they're lumped together as one.  Public reporting has been questionable on this point.
$1,446,428 -- All Star, All-NBA, MVP, DPOY -- Jaylen missed the All-Star game, and the other three ways to earn this bonus don't seem to be in the cards this season.

Derrick White:
$500,000 -- 70+ games played.  White would need to play in 17 of the final 22 games to earn this bonus.  The Celtics are likely calculating him as making this mark, even though it is currently classified as unlikely for cap purposes.
$250,000 -- All-Defense.  White is a very good defender, although All-NBA tends to be a crapshoot.  I imagine the C's will plan on White meeting this incentive so as to not hit the tax.
$500,000 -- 185+ 3-pointers.  White has made 87 3s on the year, averaging 1.6 made per game.  He would need to hit 98 more threes in the final 22 games, roughly 4.5 3's per game.  He'd have to nearly triple 3-point rate over the final quarter of the season to meet this incentive.  While technically not impossible, I would be surprised if the Celtics have this bonus budgeted in for tax purposes.

Accounting for the $1,446,429 in bonuses Jaylen still has a reasonable chance of earning, as well as the $750,000 in bonuses White can still earn, the C's are left with $1,449,142 in tax space for the rest of the season.  This is a little less than the amount needed to sign three players to rest-of-year contracts immediately, but they shouldn't have trouble avoiding the tax if they sign someone to one immediately out of break (they need to have at least added a 10-day by Thursday to meet minimum roster size).  By the time other players have cleared buyouts, the C's should be able to add another player immediately, and a third within a few days.  That said, my prediction is that they will sign someone they like to a 10-day contract coming out of the break, keeping the other two options open for buyout.  If they're able to get 2 buyouts, the 10-day player won't be immediately renewed, and the team will go with 14 for March, filling the final spot in the final days of the season depending on team needs heading into the playoffs.  If they are only able to get one player they like off of buyouts, the 10-day player will be renewed and probably ultimately signed to a rest of season deal, maybe with some sort of option for next season.  If they strike out on buyouts, look for the person they add next week to be converted to a rest of season deal, as well as two other G-leagues in March/early April.

Minor detail: Are we sure the wins/playoff bonus is connected to games played bonus? Like if he played 64 games but the team won 49 and made the 2nd round would he still get the bonus? In reporting I've seen it listed as 49 wins AND 2nd round which makes those two seem connected, but not 49 AND 2nd round AND 65 games played.

I’m not 100% sure, of course, but I do know that Bobby Marks has said that the All-Star NBA bonus is also attached to 65 games played (I should edit the OP to be specific about that I guess), and I’ve seen other references to the wins and playoff bonuses being tied to games played.  Also it is pretty standard for such clauses — you don’t get credit for wins and playoffs if you weren’t playing enough to help out.  The only unusual thing was having it tied to All-Star/All-NBA as well.

[tonydelk]

TP Great info!

[liam]

TP for the info!

[Vermont Green]

As I understand it (please comment if this in not accurate):

Current Salary Projected for 2022-23                $150.5M  (this includes full Horford Salary)
Tax Apron (Hard Cap) This season                     $143.0M  (Next season may be higher)

So if we stand pat with Horford, we are over the tax apron, even if it goes up some.  We can still do trades that result in added salary with the various TPE but they have to be trades, we would not be able to do any sign and trades to bring in a player because we are starting out above the hard cap.

2022-23 Projected, Horford Cut/Resigned at min   $140.0M  (assumes about $10M saved per above)

If we bring in any significant talent, we are over the cap but that does not prevent us from doing trades with the TPE.  We would not be hard capped necessarily.  We can use any or all of the TPEs with no limit.  Very unlikely though that there would be any sign and trade that would work.

2022-23 Projected, Horford Stretched              $130.0M  (rounded based on estimate of stretch cost stated above)

In this scenario, we could spend a fair amount and still be under the tax apron but we would not be hard capped unless we did a sign and trade or used a non-tax exemption.  A sign and trade would be a possibility, but this would result in a hard cap.  Stretching Horford would offer the most flexibility but we lose Horford and create several years of dead money.

Trading Horford or any other player obviously changes all of this but I feel these are kind of the baseline options around what we do with Horford.  I don't know how the timing works, I think we have the flexibility to wait on the decision on Horford.  Ideally, if there is a solid PF that we can trade for using a TPE or even Sign and trade, then it makes the most sense to just stretch Horford.  If no deal for a good Horford replacement can be done, we can then run another year with Horford as our starter, probably doing the cut/decline and then resign option.

[keevsnick]

With Jaylen Brown missing the All-Star game, the Celtics should now be able to add more players to their roster without risk of running into the luxury tax.  Brown still has a number of other bonuses, and Derrick White has some himself, but the C's should be make conservative assumptions about these bonuses and still have room.  These bonuses include:

Jaylen Brown:
$482,143 -- 65+ games played.  Jaylen would need to play 19 of the final 22 games to meet this bonus.  Not a given, but presumably yes.
$964,286 -- 65+ games AND 49+wins AND 2nd round of playoffs.  The Celtics would need to go 15-7 in the final 22 to reach the wins requirement.  Not a given, but within the team's abilities.  Obviously there's no way for the Celtics to know about the 2nd round of the playoffs while they can still add players, so they'll assume the latter as a yes.  One thing that isn't clear -- I believe the bonus is $482,143 for the wins requirement and another $482,143 for the playoff requirement, so they could be earned separately, but it might be that they're lumped together as one.  Public reporting has been questionable on this point.
$1,446,428 -- All Star, All-NBA, MVP, DPOY -- Jaylen missed the All-Star game, and the other three ways to earn this bonus don't seem to be in the cards this season.

Derrick White:
$500,000 -- 70+ games played.  White would need to play in 17 of the final 22 games to earn this bonus.  The Celtics are likely calculating him as making this mark, even though it is currently classified as unlikely for cap purposes.
$250,000 -- All-Defense.  White is a very good defender, although All-NBA tends to be a crapshoot.  I imagine the C's will plan on White meeting this incentive so as to not hit the tax.
$500,000 -- 185+ 3-pointers.  White has made 87 3s on the year, averaging 1.6 made per game.  He would need to hit 98 more threes in the final 22 games, roughly 4.5 3's per game.  He'd have to nearly triple 3-point rate over the final quarter of the season to meet this incentive.  While technically not impossible, I would be surprised if the Celtics have this bonus budgeted in for tax purposes.

Accounting for the $1,446,429 in bonuses Jaylen still has a reasonable chance of earning, as well as the $750,000 in bonuses White can still earn, the C's are left with $1,449,142 in tax space for the rest of the season.  This is a little less than the amount needed to sign three players to rest-of-year contracts immediately, but they shouldn't have trouble avoiding the tax if they sign someone to one immediately out of break (they need to have at least added a 10-day by Thursday to meet minimum roster size).  By the time other players have cleared buyouts, the C's should be able to add another player immediately, and a third within a few days.  That said, my prediction is that they will sign someone they like to a 10-day contract coming out of the break, keeping the other two options open for buyout.  If they're able to get 2 buyouts, the 10-day player won't be immediately renewed, and the team will go with 14 for March, filling the final spot in the final days of the season depending on team needs heading into the playoffs.  If they are only able to get one player they like off of buyouts, the 10-day player will be renewed and probably ultimately signed to a rest of season deal, maybe with some sort of option for next season.  If they strike out on buyouts, look for the person they add next week to be converted to a rest of season deal, as well as two other G-leagues in March/early April.

Minor detail: Are we sure the wins/playoff bonus is connected to games played bonus? Like if he played 64 games but the team won 49 and made the 2nd round would he still get the bonus? In reporting I've seen it listed as 49 wins AND 2nd round which makes those two seem connected, but not 49 AND 2nd round AND 65 games played.

I’m not 100% sure, of course, but I do know that Bobby Marks has said that the All-Star NBA bonus is also attached to 65 games played (I should edit the OP to be specific about that I guess), and I’ve seen other references to the wins and playoff bonuses being tied to games played.  Also it is pretty standard for such clauses — you don’t get credit for wins and playoffs if you weren’t playing enough to help out.  The only unusual thing was having it tied to All-Star/All-NBA as well.

Ya I suppose the game played + wins thing would make sense. Its not entirely clear. As for the all nab stuff usually you have top play 65+ games to really have a shot anyway, if you're playing only 50 games you aren't getting on all-nba.

[Celtics2021]

With the signing of Stauskas and two 10-day contracts to Martin and Fitts, the Celtics are now roughly $660k under the tax, with the bonus assumptions in the OP still holding.  Converting Fitts and Martin to rest of season deals would cost $490k, meaning those two could both be re-upped at the conclusion of their 10-days without running into the tax.  About the only thing the C's are unable to do is sign two veterans to 2-year deal (like Stauskas) at the conclusion of the 10-days.  They could ultimately sign two such players, but would have to wait a few days after the 10-days expire to sign both.

It looks like Stevens and Zarren will land the plane outside the tax.  Hopefully they're given a different runway next year.

[Roy H.]

With the signing of Stauskas and two 10-day contracts to Martin and Fitts, the Celtics are now roughly $660k under the tax, with the bonus assumptions in the OP still holding.  Converting Fitts and Martin to rest of season deals would cost $490k, meaning those two could both be re-upped at the conclusion of their 10-days without running into the tax.  About the only thing the C's are unable to do is sign two veterans to 2-year deal (like Stauskas) at the conclusion of the 10-days.  They could ultimately sign two such players, but would have to wait a few days after the 10-days expire to sign both.

It looks like Stevens and Zarren will land the plane outside the tax.  Hopefully they're given a different runway next year.

Which bonuses did you assume, again?  Or rather, which ones did you not assume?

It's Jaylen's 65 games, 49 wins, and second round clauses, plus White's 70 games played plus All-Defense?

I think White making All-Defense is probably a hail mary at this point.

[Celtics2021]

With the signing of Stauskas and two 10-day contracts to Martin and Fitts, the Celtics are now roughly $660k under the tax, with the bonus assumptions in the OP still holding.  Converting Fitts and Martin to rest of season deals would cost $490k, meaning those two could both be re-upped at the conclusion of their 10-days without running into the tax.  About the only thing the C's are unable to do is sign two veterans to 2-year deal (like Stauskas) at the conclusion of the 10-days.  They could ultimately sign two such players, but would have to wait a few days after the 10-days expire to sign both.

It looks like Stevens and Zarren will land the plane outside the tax.  Hopefully they're given a different runway next year.

Which bonuses did you assume, again?  Or rather, which ones did you not assume?

I assumed Jaylen would not make All-NBA and that White would not hit 180 3s on the season.  I assumed Jaylen would play in 63 games, the C’s would win 49 games and a playoff series, White would play in 70 games, and White would make All-defense.

[Celtics2021]

With the signing of Stauskas and two 10-day contracts to Martin and Fitts, the Celtics are now roughly $660k under the tax, with the bonus assumptions in the OP still holding.  Converting Fitts and Martin to rest of season deals would cost $490k, meaning those two could both be re-upped at the conclusion of their 10-days without running into the tax.  About the only thing the C's are unable to do is sign two veterans to 2-year deal (like Stauskas) at the conclusion of the 10-days.  They could ultimately sign two such players, but would have to wait a few days after the 10-days expire to sign both.

It looks like Stevens and Zarren will land the plane outside the tax.  Hopefully they're given a different runway next year.

Which bonuses did you assume, again?  Or rather, which ones did you not assume?

It's Jaylen's 65 games, 49 wins, and second round clauses, plus White's 70 games played plus All-Defense?

I think White making All-Defense is probably a hail mary at this point.

I agree about White, but I’m pretty sure the C’s don’t want to lose out on $11 million in luxury tax payments because of the complete randomness of All-Defense voting.