Zach Lowe on Celtics defense and surge.

[nickagneta]

This is part of the "Zach Lowe's 10 Things:" articles he puts out on the regular. This week it's headline by our Boston Celtics. Unfortunately, it's behind an ESPN+ paywall, but here is what Lowe said about the Celtics:

1. The Boston Celtics are, finally, who we thought they were

The most interesting thing in NBA defense over the last 20 games has been Ime Udoka's semi-radical decision to slot his shot-devouring center -- Robert Williams III, Lord of Time -- on wings away from the ball. The next-biggest Celtic -- Al Horford in Boston's starting five, sometimes Grant Williams, Jayson Tatum or Jaylen Brown in smaller looks -- takes the other team's main screen-setter, and switches everything.

The idea is to build a forcefield around the paint by switching up top, with Robert Williams looming along the baseline ready to pounce. A happy side effect is sewing confusion in offenses: Wait, where's Time Lord? Oh, there. So who's guarding our main screener? Are they just going to switch? Should we run our normal stuff anyway? Or divert our offense to attack Williams? But that would mean using a less dangerous screener, and Williams is really good at switching too! Oh, crap, there's 5 on the shot clock and Marcus Smart is six inches from my face.

Boston is about to overtake the Golden State Warriors for No. 1 in defensive efficiency. Their starting five has allowed a bonkers 88.8 points per 100 possessions -- easily the stingiest mark among lineups that have logged 100-plus minutes. Luck has helped; opponents have hit 29% on 3s against that group, and 34% against Boston overall. During Boston's current 9-1 stretch, opponents have shot 32% on midrangers. For the season, no team's opponents have underperformed their expected effective field goal percentage by a larger margin than Boston's, per Second Spectrum.

But Boston is driving this. Only the Warriors allow fewer shots at the rim. The Celtics have kicked their fouling habit. They are long and tenacious -- neck-and-neck with the weirdo Toronto Raptors as the best at unnerving shooters with flying closeouts. Opponents have made just 51% of shots at the rim with Williams nearby -- eighth lowest among 100-plus rotation guys who challenge at least three such shots per game. (One of the seven players above Williams is new Celtic Derrick White, who by most advanced metrics ranks among the league's 20 best defenders.)

Smaller groups with Time Lord as the only traditional big have been impenetrable; Boston's potential new closing lineup -- Smart, White, Brown, Tatum, Robert Williams -- might be a problem.

Opponents will concoct ways to attack Boston's unconventional scheme. (Brian Scalabrine and I brainstormed some on the Lowe Post podcast.) Boston will adjust.

In preseason, I labeled Boston a lock for a top-six spot -- with a chance at seizing No. 3. (Remember when everyone assumed Milwaukee and Brooklyn would go 1-2? Whoops.) That looked foolish for 30 games, but the optimism was about this defense.

The Celtics now have the East's best point differential. They are a threat to beat any conference rival in the playoffs, though a long shot against the Bucks. How the seeding shakes out will be pivotal.

I found the bolded spot on and rather humorous.

I also like that he thinks the Celtics have an outside shot of beating everyone and anyone in the Eastern playoffs. Could the Finals be in the Celtics future?

[BudweiserCeltic]

This is part of the "Zach Lowe's 10 Things:" articles he puts out on the regular. This week it's headline by our Boston Celtics. Unfortunately, it's behind an ESPN+ paywall, but here is what Lowe said about the Celtics:

1. The Boston Celtics are, finally, who we thought they were

The most interesting thing in NBA defense over the last 20 games has been Ime Udoka's semi-radical decision to slot his shot-devouring center -- Robert Williams III, Lord of Time -- on wings away from the ball. The next-biggest Celtic -- Al Horford in Boston's starting five, sometimes Grant Williams, Jayson Tatum or Jaylen Brown in smaller looks -- takes the other team's main screen-setter, and switches everything.

The idea is to build a forcefield around the paint by switching up top, with Robert Williams looming along the baseline ready to pounce. A happy side effect is sewing confusion in offenses: Wait, where's Time Lord? Oh, there. So who's guarding our main screener? Are they just going to switch? Should we run our normal stuff anyway? Or divert our offense to attack Williams? But that would mean using a less dangerous screener, and Williams is really good at switching too! Oh, crap, there's 5 on the shot clock and Marcus Smart is six inches from my face.

Boston is about to overtake the Golden State Warriors for No. 1 in defensive efficiency. Their starting five has allowed a bonkers 88.8 points per 100 possessions -- easily the stingiest mark among lineups that have logged 100-plus minutes. Luck has helped; opponents have hit 29% on 3s against that group, and 34% against Boston overall. During Boston's current 9-1 stretch, opponents have shot 32% on midrangers. For the season, no team's opponents have underperformed their expected effective field goal percentage by a larger margin than Boston's, per Second Spectrum.

But Boston is driving this. Only the Warriors allow fewer shots at the rim. The Celtics have kicked their fouling habit. They are long and tenacious -- neck-and-neck with the weirdo Toronto Raptors as the best at unnerving shooters with flying closeouts. Opponents have made just 51% of shots at the rim with Williams nearby -- eighth lowest among 100-plus rotation guys who challenge at least three such shots per game. (One of the seven players above Williams is new Celtic Derrick White, who by most advanced metrics ranks among the league's 20 best defenders.)

Smaller groups with Time Lord as the only traditional big have been impenetrable; Boston's potential new closing lineup -- Smart, White, Brown, Tatum, Robert Williams -- might be a problem.

Opponents will concoct ways to attack Boston's unconventional scheme. (Brian Scalabrine and I brainstormed some on the Lowe Post podcast.) Boston will adjust.

In preseason, I labeled Boston a lock for a top-six spot -- with a chance at seizing No. 3. (Remember when everyone assumed Milwaukee and Brooklyn would go 1-2? Whoops.) That looked foolish for 30 games, but the optimism was about this defense.

The Celtics now have the East's best point differential. They are a threat to beat any conference rival in the playoffs, though a long shot against the Bucks. How the seeding shakes out will be pivotal.

I found the bolded spot on and rather humorous.

I also like that he thinks the Celtics have an outside shot of beating everyone and anyone in the Eastern playoffs. Could the Finals be in the Celtics future?

I think the Celtics have a roster that can beat anyone in the NBA. The problem is that they are inconsistent and untrustworthy as well.

Hoping for the best.

[Surferdad]

Lord of Time, Zach?  Don't try to be cute, nobody refers to him that way except you.

[LilRip]

I think it’s possible to make it to ECF. I don’t think we’re beating a healthy Bucks, Bulls, Sixers or even Nets team in a 7-game series. But I think C’s beat the Heat, Cavs, Raps, Hawks and whoever else might show up. Plus, if injuries (or conditioning issues) linger, those 4 teams previously mentioned are definitely beatable.

[Moranis]

I think it’s possible to make it to ECF. I don’t think we’re beating a healthy Bucks, Bulls, Sixers or even Nets team in a 7-game series. But I think C’s beat the Heat, Cavs, Raps, Hawks and whoever else might show up. Plus, if injuries (or conditioning issues) linger, those 4 teams previously mentioned are definitely beatable.

Bulls?  If Boston doesn't beat the Bulls there is a problem.  Heat are far more problematic though I'd favor Boston.  I'm with you on the Bucks, Sixers, and Nets assuming all teams are healthy.  Those 3 are a real problem, which is why the seeding is immensely important.  If Boston can end up on the 4/5 line against the Cavs and then have the Heat or Bulls waiting in round 2, then the ECF is absolutely in play.  Or if they are 6 against the Cavs or Bulls and the Heat are the 2 (and don't lose to the Nets), then ECF is again possible.  If Boston ends up playing the Bucks or Sixers in round 1, then they are most likely 1 and done (I don't think they will reasonably match-up with the Nets until at least the 2nd round given the current seeding). 

[slamtheking]

I think it’s possible to make it to ECF. I don’t think we’re beating a healthy Bucks, Bulls, Sixers or even Nets team in a 7-game series. But I think C’s beat the Heat, Cavs, Raps, Hawks and whoever else might show up. Plus, if injuries (or conditioning issues) linger, those 4 teams previously mentioned are definitely beatable.

Bulls?  If Boston doesn't beat the Bulls there is a problem.  Heat are far more problematic though I'd favor Boston.  I'm with you on the Bucks, Sixers, and Nets assuming all teams are healthy.  Those 3 are a real problem, which is why the seeding is immensely important.  If Boston can end up on the 4/5 line against the Cavs and then have the Heat or Bulls waiting in round 2, then the ECF is absolutely in play.  Or if they are 6 against the Cavs or Bulls and the Heat are the 2 (and don't lose to the Nets), then ECF is again possible.  If Boston ends up playing the Bucks or Sixers in round 1, then they are most likely 1 and done (I don't think they will reasonably match-up with the Nets until at least the 2nd round given the current seeding).

the only 2 teams I feel could cause the C's issues are the Buck and Heat.  Heat just seem to have the C's number.  Bucks have Giannis with a good supporting cast. 
Bulls and Cavs have to prove it in the offseason.  Nets have been a mess and the swap of Simmons for Harden has to be evaluated once Durant is back.  Having Kyrie in and out of the lineup doesn't help them and Kyrie won't like playing in Boston.  Philly got pasted without Harden.  just adding Harden won't fix that and the officiating this year isn't supportive of Harden's flopping for fouls.

Hawks - if they're having a hot night they can beat anyone but I don't see that happening for an entire series.

[#1P4P]

Zach and I share observations on this. The C's are realizing the potential that I've touted since the preseason. The best defense in the NBA keeps us in most games and with the personnel to play big or small, there's no team that would outclass us in a playoff series including the Bucks.

There are few, if any, mismatches on defense with an 8-player rotation of excellent individual and team defenders against most teams. Even in those instances that there is a mismatch like Al vs. Trae Young, you can go small to have 4 players to check 1-4. Our starting lineup is built to check the Portis-Giannis-Middleton-Allen-Holiday lineup.

The only aspect left to firmly raise the ceiling of this team to Championship level is late game execution and Tatum taking the final leap (we've seen Jayson reach those levels already, his issue has been sustaining it).

[colincb]

Timelord plays more like a free safety, than looming along the baseline (which he also does). He has a high block rate on outside shooters and can recover against most players trying to go around him.

[dannyboy35]

  I don’t like the sixers over us at all. Bucks ok. The heat I’d probably fear most. They are grandfathered in as if every player is a MORRIS twin. I appreciate they play very hard but the Riley rep has continued to be a factor and their games to me are reffed differently. Miami is allowed much more clutching and grabbing that other teams are called for. I love PJ Tucker’s effort but he’s a walking foul machine. Just doesn’t get called.

[liam]

Health will be the most important factor in the playoffs for us and other teams. It happens every year. I like our chances if fully healthy against anyone in the NBA. My glasses are green.

[LilRip]

I think it’s possible to make it to ECF. I don’t think we’re beating a healthy Bucks, Bulls, Sixers or even Nets team in a 7-game series. But I think C’s beat the Heat, Cavs, Raps, Hawks and whoever else might show up. Plus, if injuries (or conditioning issues) linger, those 4 teams previously mentioned are definitely beatable.

Bulls?  If Boston doesn't beat the Bulls there is a problem.  Heat are far more problematic though I'd favor Boston.  I'm with you on the Bucks, Sixers, and Nets assuming all teams are healthy.  Those 3 are a real problem, which is why the seeding is immensely important.  If Boston can end up on the 4/5 line against the Cavs and then have the Heat or Bulls waiting in round 2, then the ECF is absolutely in play.  Or if they are 6 against the Cavs or Bulls and the Heat are the 2 (and don't lose to the Nets), then ECF is again possible.  If Boston ends up playing the Bucks or Sixers in round 1, then they are most likely 1 and done (I don't think they will reasonably match-up with the Nets until at least the 2nd round given the current seeding).

Yes, a healthy bulls. Derozan has got the glow this year. Maybe it won’t show up again next year, maybe it wasn’t there last year, but this season he unlocked something that has him legitimately in the conversation for mvp. Add to that a deep, healthy bulls team and they’re a really tough opponent

[pokeKingCurtis]

The force field thing really resonates

One of the games in 2022 it looked like they were running zone with how switchy they were. Could feel the defensive intensity thru my phone screen

[td450]

The major difference has been that we've figured out how to play with Rob and Al and it has turned out far better than anyone expected. For at least this year and possibly next, we have solved the power forward mess, and we suddenly match up with real size and aggression. And by getting Theis, when all three guys are healthy, we can sustain it for 48 minutes, or downshift to one big with Grant Williams and White playing more if we need to.

We can sustain this scheme, big or small, for 48 minutes.

I really hope the players hold up and can all play in the playoffs at full strength. I want to see if Giannis or Embiid or Adebayo can still bully us against that defense. We've always played so much smaller. We just couldn't sustain that second big. Rob was never this big a factor, and we always had a vulnerable point guard. Those issues are all gone now.

What a weird year. Philly and Brooklyn are basically starting over, and can't even get started quite yet because Simmons and Harden aren't ready. Either team could be a non-factor or they could suddenly coalesce and run the table.

The rest of this year is going to be far more entertaining than what we've seen so far.

[nickagneta]

The major difference has been that we've figured out how to play with Rob and Al and it has turned out far better than anyone expected. For at least this year and possibly next, we have solved the power forward mess, and we suddenly match up with real size and aggression. And by getting Theis, when all three guys are healthy, we can sustain it for 48 minutes, or downshift to one big with Grant Williams and White playing more if we need to.

We can sustain this scheme, big or small, for 48 minutes.

I really hope the players hold up and can all play in the playoffs at full strength. I want to see if Giannis or Embiid or Adebayo can still bully us against that defense. We've always played so much smaller. We just couldn't sustain that second big. Rob was never this big a factor, and we always had a vulnerable point guard. Those issues are all gone now.

What a weird year. Philly and Brooklyn are basically starting over, and can't even get started quite yet because Simmons and Harden aren't ready. Either team could be a non-factor or they could suddenly coalesce and run the table.

The rest of this year is going to be far more entertaining than what we've seen so far.

I'm not so sure about this. The starting unit of Smart, Brown, Tatum, Horford and Timelord has been one of the most highly rated, if not the most highly rated 5-somes in the league in net rating, all season long, regardless of the team's record.

The quintet has been working at one of the best differential weather they were playing poorly or during this surge. I think the key is health and that the team has found the proper bench parts and rotations once they did get healthy.

[Big333223]

It's crazy that there are legitimately 7 teams in the East that could make the it to the Finals right now. The Celtics are right in it. Best point differential in the conference. I think they're 1.5 games out of 3rd. I don't see any team that the Celtics should be afraid of.