Author Topic: Celtics 3pt Shooting  (Read 2269 times)

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Celtics 3pt Shooting
« on: February 16, 2022, 10:44:00 AM »

Offline Vermont Green

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This is a topic that comes up in nearly every discussion.  Are we a bad 3pt shooting team?  Do we need more shooters?  Is lack of 3pt shooting a fatal flaw?

As of today, as a team, we are at about 34.3%, 22nd in the league on about 2,100 attempts.  The best team is the Bulls at 37.6%.  If we had made just one more 3pt shot per game, our percentage would be  37.0% and we would be 4th.

Hitting 3s is a weapon but relying too much on the 3 can be an issue.  You don't want to "live and die" by the 3.  Balance is best.

I don't feel that 3pt shooting is going to be the thing that brings down this team.  I feel we have plenty of shooters.  I think our shooting is improving and can be good enough, especially if we keep improving in terms of ball movement and taking good shoots.  Taking isolation 3s is not what we want, shooting 3s in rhythm is going to be a much better result.

Re: Celtics 3pt Shooting
« Reply #1 on: February 16, 2022, 10:51:58 AM »

Offline RPGenerate

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I'd say yes to all three of your question, but the main issue here is that both Brown and Tatum are shooting way below their career averages from 3. Once those guys start shooting better, we won't look quite as bad.
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Re: Celtics 3pt Shooting
« Reply #2 on: February 16, 2022, 10:52:02 AM »

Offline Kuberski33

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Grant Williams 44% from 3pt range. Raise your hands anyone who saw that coming.

Re: Celtics 3pt Shooting
« Reply #3 on: February 16, 2022, 10:55:20 AM »

Offline liam

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Grant Williams 44% from 3pt range. Raise your hands anyone who saw that coming.

I could but I'd be lying. I thought Grant would bounce back this year at a lower weight but his shooting has been top of the league and I didn't see that at all. He's a worker and loves playing basketball and that is always a good thing.

Re: Celtics 3pt Shooting
« Reply #4 on: February 16, 2022, 10:59:11 AM »

Offline Kuberski33

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Grant Williams 44% from 3pt range. Raise your hands anyone who saw that coming.

I could but I'd be lying. I thought Grant would bounce back this year at a lower weight but his shooting has been top of the league and I didn't see that at all. He's a worker and loves playing basketball and that is always a good thing.
He turned out to be a pretty good pick by Ainge lol. I think as recently as last year at this time I was predicting he wouldn't stay in the league beyond his current contract. Now I'm wondering whether re-upping him may be a challenge.  His skill set will be worth some cash in free agency.

Re: Celtics 3pt Shooting
« Reply #5 on: February 16, 2022, 11:02:58 AM »

Offline Roy H.

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Yes, we’re a bad 3PT shooting team.  Thus, why we’re 22nd in shooting.

I hate the “if we just hit one more 3PT we’d be really good” argument.  Yes, if we’d hit 59 threes instead of missing them, we’d be 4th in the league.  And, if we missed 59 more threes instead of making them, we’d be second last in the league, very slightly above OKC.  Instead of hypotheticals, we look at the reality:  22nd.


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Re: Celtics 3pt Shooting
« Reply #6 on: February 16, 2022, 11:06:25 AM »

Offline knuckleballer

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In my eyes, the ball movement has dramatically improved recently.  That leads to more open shots including easier to make 3 pointers.  I expect our 3 point percentage to noticeably improve here on out.

Re: Celtics 3pt Shooting
« Reply #7 on: February 16, 2022, 11:09:14 AM »

Offline ozgod

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I suspect to really answer the question we need to compare this with other teams. Ideally we also want to look at the % of shots we take that are Very Tight (0-2 feet from closest defender), Tight (2-4 ft), Open (4-6ft) and Wide Open (6+). You can get the data from NBA.com, rather than posting the screenshots I will just post the query I used, changing the filter to the different categories:

https://www.nba.com/stats/teams/shots-closest-defender/?sort=FG3_PCT&dir=1

Celtics:
Very Tight (0-2ft) - 0.1% of total shots, 33% success rate (14th)
Tight (2-4ft) - 5.2% of total shots (1.3 from 4.6), 28.2% success rate (16th)
Open (4-6ft) - 18.1% of total shots (5.4 from 15.9), 34.1% success rate (16th)
Wide Open (6+) - 18.3% of total shots (5.8 from 16), 36% success rate (25th)

I will post the screenshot of that last one but you can get it yourself from the query I built:



Sorry for how tiny the text is, its the only way I could fit the Celtics in since they are 25th.

So given we are 16th and 25th in open shots (to combine the 2 categories would require adding them up together manually so I won't do it for now) it's fair to say we are not one of the league's better 3fg shooting teams. In fact we're probably one of the worst, if we can't even hit wide open shots as a team.

That said, we have been winning despite our mediocre 3fg shooting, why? I'm sure it drives everyone crazy to see our team of clankers letting it fly and building brick houses every game, but the flip side to it is that our defense has gone to another level in 2022. I did these splits this for another thread, you can see how even if our 3fg is mediocre, those we have been playing have been worse on average:



So we don't necessarily have to be a great 3 point shooting team to win as long as we can maintain our defensive connectedness that has been evident throughout 2022. The caveat - the teams we've been playing recently have been either hurt or bad. But if we're going to apply that caveat to them, we should also apply that caveat to us back in Nov and Dec when everyone wanted to blow up the team when we were losing and building bricks.

There's another stat I've been tracking which is the # of games we have won where we shot less than .300. Over the season's 59 games we have shot below .300 17 times, and only won 6 times...but 3 of those 6 were in the last 10 days - because the other team shot even worse. Whether that's our doing, theirs, or a combination of both, we need to dig deeper. But the data suggests that as long as we continue to defend well and be connected and give the other team bad shot opportunities we will be in the thick of things come playoff time, even if we miss our 3s.

Any odd typos are because I suck at typing on an iPhone :D


Re: Celtics 3pt Shooting
« Reply #8 on: February 16, 2022, 11:09:36 AM »

Offline LilRip

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We’re not a good 3 point shooting team and it’s definitely a weakness of ours, especially since the team likes taking threes. The team is streaky though so there will be nights where JB/JT will be hitting ridiculous threes and/or Smart will be getting hot and so on.

I think getting a steady shooter (or one of the young guys stepping up like a Nesmith or Pritchard) can be a big boost for the team, provided they’re good enough to actually earn minutes to be on the floor.
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Re: Celtics 3pt Shooting
« Reply #9 on: February 16, 2022, 11:12:34 AM »

Offline RPGenerate

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We’re not a good 3 point shooting team and it’s definitely a weakness of ours, especially since the team likes taking threes. The team is streaky though so there will be nights where JB/JT will be hitting ridiculous threes and/or Smart will be getting hot and so on.

I think getting a steady shooter (or one of the young guys stepping up like a Nesmith or Pritchard) can be a big boost for the team, provided they’re good enough to actually earn minutes to be on the floor.
That second part is also key for our improvement. We have three guys in Pritchard/Nesmith/Hauser that have the potential to step up and help our shooting.
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Re: Celtics 3pt Shooting
« Reply #10 on: February 16, 2022, 11:16:37 AM »

Offline Atzar

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Worth noting that, Murder at Wells Fargo aside, the Celtics' hot streak hasn't really coincided with hot shooting. 

This team may actually be able to win at a high level with mediocre-to-below shooting, contrary to modern basketball beliefs.  Would I prefer it if our team shot better?  Of course.  But it might not be a death sentence if it doesn't, provided that this top-of-the-league defense and improving teamwork persist. 

Re: Celtics 3pt Shooting
« Reply #11 on: February 16, 2022, 11:34:34 AM »

Offline Kuberski33

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Biggest difference I'm seeing is all of a sudden they're not taking nearly as many contested shots. We had to have been leading the league in that department the first half of the season. But that's been absent since this streak started.  I'd have to think the reason is a combination of White, Smart committing to being a real PG, and the guys realizing that they can be an elite defensive team when they all buy in.

Re: Celtics 3pt Shooting
« Reply #12 on: February 16, 2022, 11:58:10 AM »

Offline Yuckabuck33

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So we don't necessarily have to be a great 3 point shooting team to win as long as we can maintain our defensive connectedness that has been evident throughout 2022.
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Bottom line on our 3pt shooting:
I don't have to outrun the 3 point shooting bear. I just have to shoot better than you during this game.