Brad Stevens the Politician

[Chef Parish]

Brad has traded an UNPROTECTED 2028 first round pick. Why is this not a big deal? Because it's 6 years away. Because most fans want to improve in the now. Because Brad Stevens will not be here to take the possible heat for it  (typical politician move).

I can live and actually like the White trade if it wasn't for a careless 2028 first round pick with only top 1 protection.

Back in the day before there were no protections, it was always fun to see if the pick would turn into something great. Nowadays, Top 2-5 protected, top 5 protected, top 8, lottery protected, top whatever protected unless it turned into a 30th overall pick.  Truthfully, it was not fun thinking of all the frustrating stipulations all of those first round picks Danny had the previous years. Not fun at all!

So now Brad does the worst thing a GM could do. Trade a far in the future first rounder with no protection.

Sure White brings new blood into this season and might be a solid contributor for the next couple of seasons.  However, White hasn't been exactly injury free, Celtics are not a solid contender this year. Mediocre contender at best this year.

Stevens will get "credit" this year if White stays healthy and makes Celtics a 6th seed. But as a lot of politicians do they sacrifice the future so they look good in the short term.

So thanks Future Brad who will be with a college team or the Pacers or some other basketball job when this trade potentially becomes a disaster.

[Celtics2021]

It’s a top-1 protected swap.

[BudweiserCeltic]

It's a swap... being made more a big deal than it actually is. You assume Brad won't be here in 6 years? Could be. I think he'll be here for a quite a bit.

Chances are the Spurs will be worse than us that year still.

Also... we still have the pick to trade if we want. After all we still own the pick, the right to swap is what was traded.

White also is on a long contract, so this isn't really a short term patch-work.

I get that people value that swap, but I think it's going to the extreme at this point and underselling what we gained in return.

[slamtheking]

Brad has traded an UNPROTECTED 2028 first round pick. Why is this not a big deal? Because it's 6 years away. Because most fans want to improve in the now. Because Brad Stevens will not be here to take the possible heat for it  (typical politician move).

I can live and actually like the White trade if it wasn't for a careless 2028 first round pick with NO PROTECTIONS.

Back in the day before there were no protections, it was always fun to see if the pick would turn into something great. Nowadays, Top 1 protected, top 5 protected, top 8, lottery protected, top whatever protected unless it turned into a 30th overall pick.  Truthfully, it was not fun thinking of all the frustrating stipulations all of those first round picks Danny had the previous years. Not fun at all!

So now Danny does the worst thing a GM could do. Trade a far in the future first rounder with no protection.

Sure White brings new blood into this season and might be a solid contributor for the next couple of seasons.  However, White hasn't been exactly injury free, Celtics are not a solid contender this year. Mediocre contender at best this year.

Stevens will get "credit" this year if White stays healthy and makes Celtics a 6th seed. But as a lot of politicians do they sacrifice the future so they look good in the short term.

So thanks Future Brad who will be with a college team or the Pacers or some other basketball job when this trade potentially becomes a disaster.

how is this Danny's fault?

[Neurotic Guy]

The worst possible scenario for the 2028 pick is that we swap the #2 for the #30 pick. That would be terrible, but the chances of that are infinitesimally small.  Celts unlikely to become a bottom dweller and SAS unlikely to have the best record in the league.  Realistically there’s a 50-50 chance (better than 50-50 given where both teams are now) that the swap doesn’t happen at all, and if it does, it’s  probably not disastrous.  I wish the 2028 swap wasn’t part of the deal but I’m not that worried about it.  I also think the deal could be a stepping stone to a “3rd star” deal with the addition of White as a solid asset. 

[Surferdad]

C's roster six years ago, final record 48-34:  https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/BOS/2016.html
Spurs roster six years ago, final record 67-15: https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/SAS/2016.html

The point: Nobody has ANY idea of what the value of these picks will be. Can't even say Spurs would opt for a pick swap.

[droopdog7]

My goodness people are making a big deal out of the swap. EVERYBODY is talking about it.

Anyway, who cares.  Six and a half years from now we’ll deal with it, but it’s the cost of doing business.

What I MOST like about this trade is that brad identified a guy he wanted (that may or may not been on the martlet), and he went after him and got him.

[footey]

My gut tells me the Celtics approached the Spurs about the cost of Derrick White, not the other way around.  The Spurs smelled blood, and were able to dictate the terms. 

Brad and Ime placed higher value on White than Celtic fans and media (and the rest of the league, probably).

From a market perspective came across as an "overpay." 

But if White can bring to the Celtics in terms of fit, culture and wins, what Holiday brought the Bucks, it will turn out to be an "underpay."

[liam]

My goodness people are making a big deal out of the swap. EVERYBODY is talking about it.

Anyway, who cares.  Six and a half years from now we’ll deal with it, but it’s the cost of doing business.

What I MOST like about this trade is that brad identified a guy he wanted (that may or may not been on the martlet), and he went after him and got him.

Well  said.

[droopdog7]

My gut tells me the Celtics approached the Spurs about the cost of Derrick White, not the other way around.  The Spurs smelled blood, and were able to dictate the terms. 

Brad and Ime placed higher value on White than Celtic fans and media (and the rest of the league, probably).

From a market perspective came across as an "overpay." 

But if White can bring to the Celtics in terms of fit, culture and wins, what Holiday brought the Bucks, it will turn out to be an "underpay."

The spurs smelled blood so biased.  Brad saw a guy he wanted and he went after him.  I prefer that to settling or only thinking about trading assets that no one cares about (which is what fans always default to).

[trickybilly]

My prediction? SAS get their swap. They swap the 16th pick for the 15th

Much worse was next year's pick, which would have been trade gold for a bigger move for a third star.

[ozgod]

I think the way people will look at this pick swap depends on their appetite for downside risk. The downside risk the Celtics have taken is that they will be worse than the Spurs in 2028 and thus will lose a more advantageous draft pick. After all, anything can happen, and this is true. The pick could end up being No2! We could check the middle schoolers playing right now who might be potential picks in 2028 to see who we might miss out out, if there were any lists out there (I think they will probably start doing mock drafts in 2025 or 2026). In all seriousness the next Jordan or LeBum could be drafted in 2028!

Prefacing this by saying I'm probably more risk prone than the average person (I quit my job in 2008 in the middle of the Great Recession to go into business for myself full time) but the way I look at this is that Brad sees himself in his current role for a while, at least heading into 2028, and he isn't planning to tank or take the team in a direction where we would a) be worse than the Spurs; and b) we in a position where we may fall into the lottery either through choice or circumstance and thus end up having to give up a top lottery pick. Guessing he feels the picks will both be in the 15-to-25 range as neither team has an ownership or fan base or team philosophy that will allow tanking" for a high pick anyway.

Obviously there's a lot of variables at play - will the Jays stay? Can we get a 3rd star to pair with them? Will Ime work out? Will Brad work out? But I think a lot of thought went into whether or not to give up that pick swap and end of day Brad is backing the Cs to continue to have the core stability to be playoff contenders, particularly as he continues to (re)build the team in his own image. And the value of having White under control for 3 more years was worth the risk of having 2028 go horribly wrong and us having to give up a player who is still in middle school right now.

The third point I thought of, I don't have any proof of it so it's just an intuition, is that Brad doesn't seem to think much of non-lottery first round picks as moving the needle in a reliable sort of way, at least not as immediate contributors (probably because he's not planning to do a Hinkie and tank for years to get multiple top 5 draft picks). We'll see what he does this summer during the draft, but it seems like he's looking to re-cast the team via free agency more so than the draft. After all we netted the Jays as top 3 picks via the Ainge haul, not because we did our own Process. Obviously the biggest advantage of the draft is having cost controlled young players, so it might be a place where he feels he can hit singles instead of home runs.

I'd be curious to see if anyone else got that same idea of Brad's philosophy based on his recent actions or if it was just me.

[slamtheking]

My goodness people are making a big deal out of the swap. EVERYBODY is talking about it.

Anyway, who cares.  Six and a half years from now we’ll deal with it, but it’s the cost of doing business.

What I MOST like about this trade is that brad identified a guy he wanted (that may or may not been on the martlet), and he went after him and got him.

but that's the point, it shouldn't have been.  Spurs got paid well with JRich, Romeo and that top-4 protected first which is going to convey.  that in itself was an overpay.  White is not an allstar. 

[CelticsWhat35]

To me, if there’s a trade to be made that, in the mind of the GM, makes the team better in the short-term and provides more flexibility going forward, I would be upset if they let it fall through all because of a pick swap.  Chances are that swap is going to end up being less valuable to the Spurs than a 2nd rounder, and no one would’ve batted an eye against that.

Yes, there is a chance it becomes disastrous, but the chance is so small that you can’t let it dictate the trade.  In 6 years, Brown and Tatum will be 31 and 29; even if they’re no longer with the team, it’s not like the expectation would be that they left for nothing.  But the more likely scenario is that at least one, if not both, are still with the team.  That team would be expected to be a playoff team at the very least.  Sure, there’s always the potential for injuries that can derail a season.  Again, I would not kill a trade because of that fear

[droopdog7]

My goodness people are making a big deal out of the swap. EVERYBODY is talking about it.

Anyway, who cares.  Six and a half years from now we’ll deal with it, but it’s the cost of doing business.

What I MOST like about this trade is that brad identified a guy he wanted (that may or may not been on the martlet), and he went after him and got him.

but that's the point, it shouldn't have been.  Spurs got paid well with JRich, Romeo and that top-4 protected first which is going to convey.  that in itself was an overpay.  White is not an allstar.

How do you know it shouldn’t have been?  Do you think brad just threw it in for the heck of it?  What’s most reasonable is that it had to be part of the deal or it was off.  So at that point, you take it or you don’t.  People can differ there but I trust the vision.

And as for SA getting fair value without the swap, did they really?  J rich is just a body to SA in my view.  I don’t think they even keep him long term.  Romeo we’ll see.  A pick around 20 is a crap shoot.  So I don’t really think those are all that valuable if you think White is a difference maker.