What do you do when you're a bad shooting team?

[The Oracle]

If Tatum had made 27 more of his 3's to this point he would be shooting 39%.  If Brown had made 13 more of his 3's he would be shooting 39%.  If Horford had made 13 more of his 3's he would be shooting 36.2%.  If Smart had made 7 more of his 3's he would be at 34.7%.  Those 4 when healthy will account for about 2/3 of the Celtics 3's taken on average per game.  They have all significantly underperformed expectation.  Their combined performance so far this year is not representative of the quality of shooters they are.

If the 4 of them had combined to make lets say 50 more of their 3's so far this year the team as a whole would be shooting 36.5%, which would be 4th in the league. 

The addition of Derrick White and his play making should be beneficial in creating better shot quality.  Brown and Tatum isolation possessions should be dramatically reduced.  Smart and White should be creating the cracks and spot ups for the Jay's to exploit, not the Jay's creating for themselves.  As of late they have been playing much more optimally and the addition of White should help to cure some of the ails they still have.  Simple variance swinging back in favor of our shooters should also help greatly. 

The C's don't need more shooters, the C's need to use their shooters more optimally in their in their proper roles.  The Jay's are the C's best shooters and need to be used in off ball roles more.  Hopefully Hauser can find a role also as he has been shooting great in the G league.  And of course the C's should be pushing in transition a lot more.

[BruceBanner18]

Goes back to what i said in the trade grades thread -- whether we got "good players" ignores that we got worse in a problem area.

Simple fact is the Cs need to: a) pick up / keep up the pace, and get more easy buckets, b) keep he ball more consistently in the half court to get easy shots, and c) not settle.... drive more / get into the paint.

White helps in all the areas.

[Roy H.]

If Tatum had made 27 more of his 3's to this point he would be shooting 39%.  If Brown had made 13 more of his 3's he would be shooting 39%.  If Horford had made 13 more of his 3's he would be shooting 36.2%.  If Smart had made 7 more of his 3's he would be at 34.7%.  Those 4 when healthy will account for about 2/3 of the Celtics 3's taken on average per game.  They have all significantly underperformed expectation.  Their combined performance so far this year is not representative of the quality of shooters they are.

If the 4 of them had combined to make lets say 50 more of their 3's so far this year the team as a whole would be shooting 36.5%, which would be 4th in the league. 

The addition of Derrick White and his play making should be beneficial in creating better shot quality.  Brown and Tatum isolation possessions should be dramatically reduced.  Smart and White should be creating the cracks and spot ups for the Jay's to exploit, not the Jay's creating for themselves.  As of late they have been playing much more optimally and the addition of White should help to cure some of the ails they still have.  Simple variance swinging back in favor of our shooters should also help greatly. 

The C's don't need more shooters, the C's need to use their shooters more optimally in their in their proper roles.  The Jay's are the C's best shooters and need to be used in off ball roles more.  Hopefully Hauser can find a role also as he has been shooting great in the G league.  And of course the C's should be pushing in transition a lot more.

I'm not sure how useful it is to say, "just hit 50 more 3PTs on the same number of shots and we'd be good".

We're shooting 35.9% on "wide open" 3PTs, sixth worst in the NBA.  You can't ask for a better shot than being 6+ more feet wide open, and we're missing those shots.

I think that we do, indeed, need better shooters.

[The Oracle]

If you would have known before the season that G. Williams and Richardson would have made a combined 137 3's shooting 41.4%, would you have ever suggested that the C's were in any way short of shooters?  The answer is obviously no. 

The +50 made 3's is a modest expectation of what one might have expected from those 4 to this point, the fact that they dramatically underperformed that expectation has little to no bearing on them going forward.  Variance can be terrible.  A significant shortage of playmaking and not playing optimally also had some effect.

The C's have plenty of shooting in their rotation as exists with a small role available on the wing.  That role could be filled by Hauser or Nesmith if he figures it out.  Outside of that small role on the wing there are no minutes available in a healthy rotation.  Certainly added depth would be helpful.

[Roy H.]

If you would have known before the season that G. Williams and Richardson would have made a combined 137 3's shooting 41.4%, would you have ever suggested that the C's were in any way short of shooters?  The answer is obviously no. 

The +50 made 3's is a modest expectation of what one might have expected from those 4 to this point, the fact that they dramatically underperformed that expectation has little to no bearing on them going forward.  Variance can be terrible.  A significant shortage of playmaking and not playing optimally also had some effect.

The C's have plenty of shooting in their rotation as exists with a small role available on the wing.  That role could be filled by Hauser or Nesmith if he figures it out.  Outside of that small role on the wing there are no minutes available in a healthy rotation.  Certainly added depth would be helpful.

Why is it in these conversations that fans only look at variance in one direction?  For players that have over-performed, it's taken for granted.  For players underperforming, it's variance, and we should adjust that number more in line with a historical norm?

[cons]

Just don't shoot threes. Go full 90's era basketball with defense and off ball cuts.

This

or some version of it

shouldnt any good coach in any sport be able to recognize what his team does well / and not so well - and then organize a strategy based on that?

I do think under Udoka they've shot less ridiculous three's then under BS

but still
it should be pretty obvious

if you're not a great 3 point shooting team - dont shoot so many 3's

i miss low post play

low post gets pretty high percentage shots

what was wrong with that?

[The Oracle]

This fan doesn't do that.  The big mistake that fans make is conflating a players current shooting percentage with the quality of shooter said player actually is.  That can work in both directions of course.  The expectations I gave are representative of the quality of shooters I believe them to be over the course of an extended period, given proper roles, going forward. 

[Atzar]

Short-term, the best way to compensate for it that comes to mind is to run our asses off.  Attack the defense before they're set to get shots from areas we actually like.  Our defense should be good enough to create turnovers and misses which would play directly into that gameplan.  And Jaylen Brown, in particular, would flourish. 

Here's the problem with that though:  playing stifling defense takes a lot of effort.  Running takes a lot of effort.  And here we are with Udoka fixated on an 8-man rotation.  Unless he finds the other guys some minutes - Pritchard, Nesmith, a decent buyout guy, maybe even Hauser here and there - we'd burn out our main guys by mid-March. 

[liam]

If Tatum had made 27 more of his 3's to this point he would be shooting 39%.  If Brown had made 13 more of his 3's he would be shooting 39%.  If Horford had made 13 more of his 3's he would be shooting 36.2%.  If Smart had made 7 more of his 3's he would be at 34.7%.  Those 4 when healthy will account for about 2/3 of the Celtics 3's taken on average per game.  They have all significantly underperformed expectation.  Their combined performance so far this year is not representative of the quality of shooters they are.

If the 4 of them had combined to make lets say 50 more of their 3's so far this year the team as a whole would be shooting 36.5%, which would be 4th in the league. 

The addition of Derrick White and his play making should be beneficial in creating better shot quality.  Brown and Tatum isolation possessions should be dramatically reduced.  Smart and White should be creating the cracks and spot ups for the Jay's to exploit, not the Jay's creating for themselves.  As of late they have been playing much more optimally and the addition of White should help to cure some of the ails they still have.  Simple variance swinging back in favor of our shooters should also help greatly. 

The C's don't need more shooters, the C's need to use their shooters more optimally in their in their proper roles.  The Jay's are the C's best shooters and need to be used in off ball roles more.  Hopefully Hauser can find a role also as he has been shooting great in the G league.  And of course the C's should be pushing in transition a lot more.

I'm not sure how useful it is to say, "just hit 50 more 3PTs on the same number of shots and we'd be good".

We're shooting 35.9% on "wide open" 3PTs, sixth worst in the NBA.  You can't ask for a better shot than being 6+ more feet wide open, and we're missing those shots.

I think that we do, indeed, need better shooters.

The threat of the 3 point shot is almost as important as the shot itself. As long as an opponent perceives that you have to be guarded that's almost as good as being a good shooter. If Smart is left open he can drive the ball and make something happen therefore he has to be guarded. Al can do the same. TIMELORD can roll to the hop for a lob. Movement in the offense can compensate for the shooting. I would still like some shooting options off the bench. A top defense can also compensate for middling shooting. Shooting becomes more important in the playoffs because all the teams play harder and better defense. One shooting specialist off the bench would make me very happy. But Maybe that's Grant... Thies used to be able to shoot but I hear he's fallen off.

[DefenseWinsChamps]

To start with, you hope your best three point shooter that launches the most attempts per game goes from his career worst of 32.6% to a career average number of 39% (not including this year).

I also think rhythm and ball movement play a big part in three point shooting. It's why I think Richardson went from 33% with the HELO-ball around Doncic to 40% this year. I think it's also why Grant Williams is getting better.

[Roy H.]

Short-term, the best way to compensate for it that comes to mind is to run our asses off.  Attack the defense before they're set to get shots from areas we actually like.  Our defense should be good enough to create turnovers and misses which would play directly into that gameplan.  And Jaylen Brown, in particular, would flourish. 

Here's the problem with that though:  playing stifling defense takes a lot of effort.  Running takes a lot of effort.  And here we are with Udoka fixated on an 8-man rotation.  Unless he finds the other guys some minutes - Pritchard, Nesmith, a decent buyout guy, maybe even Hauser here and there - we'd burn out our main guys by mid-March.

Yeah, when I was reading your first paragraph, I was thinking what you wrote in your second.  We can't be a running, high-effort team if we're only playing 8 guys. 

I'm hoping Nesmith can get some run and show something.  He's got the size, athleticism, and energy to fit in.  He's got to work on his confidence, and even more difficult, his instincts.

[liam]

To start with, you hope your best three point shooter that launches the most attempts per game goes from his career worst of 32.6% to a career average number of 39% (not including this year).

I also think rhythm and ball movement play a big part in three point shooting. It's why I think Richardson went from 33% with the HELO-ball around Doncic to 40% this year. I think it's also why Grant Williams is getting better.

You make a good point that something that seems like an individual stat like shooting is like everything else a team stat.

[Vermont Green]

If the 4 of them had combined to make lets say 50 more of their 3's so far this year the team as a whole would be shooting 36.5%, which would be 4th in the league. 

That is one more make per game.  Doesn't seem like a lot.  Kind of like Bull Durham who said that if he could get just one more hit per week, his average would improve enough that he would be in the majors instead of the minors.

I think a lot of conflicting but still true things have been said.  We have missed a lot of 3s this year, Tatum missed what, 20 in a row?  Other are hitting at career highs (GWill).  Talent or ability is part of the equation for how many 3s you make, that is true, but shot selection, overall team offensive efficiency and other things are factors also.

More shooters/scorers would be great but I am not that worried about it as a singular issue.  If we move the ball, move purposely without the ball, take advantage of early offense, go to the hoop, draw fouls, and take good 3s when they present themselves, we have enough scoring to be fine.

I feel what we need is a starting big that can shoot.  I know, Grant Williams is making about 1.5 3s per game and that is great for a bench player but he is undersized and otherwise limited.  Having a starting level big that commanded some defensive attention would really help open things up.

[Atzar]

Short-term, the best way to compensate for it that comes to mind is to run our asses off.  Attack the defense before they're set to get shots from areas we actually like.  Our defense should be good enough to create turnovers and misses which would play directly into that gameplan.  And Jaylen Brown, in particular, would flourish. 

Here's the problem with that though:  playing stifling defense takes a lot of effort.  Running takes a lot of effort.  And here we are with Udoka fixated on an 8-man rotation.  Unless he finds the other guys some minutes - Pritchard, Nesmith, a decent buyout guy, maybe even Hauser here and there - we'd burn out our main guys by mid-March.

Yeah, when I was reading your first paragraph, I was thinking what you wrote in your second.  We can't be a running, high-effort team if we're only playing 8 guys. 

I'm hoping Nesmith can get some run and show something.  He's got the size, athleticism, and energy to fit in.  He's got to work on his confidence, and even more difficult, his instincts.

I share your hope for Nesmith.  Long-term, I remain irrationally optimistic on the guy despite the fact that he's shooting 20% from deep right now.  But a guy with his work ethic, effort level, physical tools, and shooting touch in practice has to translate it to game time eventually, right?  ...Right? 

He came on late in the year last season.  Maybe he can do the same thing again.  It would help us a lot, because we really don't have another backup wing at the moment - just guys who can survive there if played out of position. 

[SparzWizard]

Just don't shoot threes. Go full 90's era basketball with defense and off ball cuts.

Don't you know, we want to become the next Golden State Warriors and shoot 3s!