Celtics trade grades?

[todd_days_41]

..and yet White is often the only minus in the Cs box score (unless Theis joins him). Why?

Probably because he's playing the bulk of the bench minutes, and is teamed up with lesser players?

And, he's +89 with the Celts.  Even if you discount the Philly game (where he was +41 in 27 minutes), he's still +48 here.

Josh Richardson was +53 here.

So, +53 in 44 games, or +89 in 17 games.  Explain to me how +/- is a winning argument for you?

Didn't you just make the argument? When you remove one absurd outlier for White in his limited stint, what's the difference between Richardson and White?

[Roy H.]

..and yet White is often the only minus in the Cs box score (unless Theis joins him). Why?

Probably because he's playing the bulk of the bench minutes, and is teamed up with lesser players?

And, he's +89 with the Celts.  Even if you discount the Philly game (where he was +41 in 27 minutes), he's still +48 here.

Josh Richardson was +53 here.

So, +53 in 44 games, or +89 in 17 games.  Explain to me how +/- is a winning argument for you?

Didn't you just make the argument? When you remove one absurd outlier for White in his limited stint, what's the difference between Richardson and White?

Are you taking out White’s outlier too?

Even so, +48 in 16 games is > +53 in 44 games

[Atzar]

Why are we removing outliers in the first place? 

You don't get to pretend that game didn't happen just because it doesn't support an argument.  The whole point of waiting for sufficient sample sizes is that unusually positive results are eventually balanced out by unusually negative results, and vice versa.  But while we're filtering out data points that we don't like, why don't I get to discard his 21% three point shooting in Boston in favor of his more acceptable career average? 

Filter outliers or don't - I would prefer you just didn't, since his current shooting slump is a real thing that shouldn't be ignored and we definitely need him to work his way out of it - but at least be consistent. 

[Celtics2021]

..and yet White is often the only minus in the Cs box score (unless Theis joins him). Why?

Probably because he's playing the bulk of the bench minutes, and is teamed up with lesser players?

And, he's +89 with the Celts.  Even if you discount the Philly game (where he was +41 in 27 minutes), he's still +48 here.

Josh Richardson was +53 here.

So, +53 in 44 games, or +89 in 17 games.  Explain to me how +/- is a winning argument for you?

Didn't you just make the argument? When you remove one absurd outlier for White in his limited stint, what's the difference between Richardson and White?

It’s a huge difference because +/- is a cumulative stat, so that numbers are nearly equal 17 vs. 44 games strongly favors White.

[Roy H.]

Why are we removing outliers in the first place? 

You don't get to pretend that game didn't happen just because it doesn't support an argument.  The whole point of waiting for sufficient sample sizes is that unusually positive results are eventually balanced out by unusually negative results, and vice versa.  But while we're filtering out data points that we don't like, why don't I get to discard his 21% three point shooting in Boston in favor of his more acceptable career average? 

Filter outliers or don't - I would prefer you just didn't, since his current shooting slump is a real thing that shouldn't be ignored and we definitely need him to work his way out of it - but at least be consistent.

I think a 1-game outlier is fine to exclude.  Richardson’s outlier performance of +28 souls also be excluded, but it’s a valid way of treating statistics for the purpose of argument.

What you seem to be arguing with the 3PT% is to exclude his entire Boston career?  That seems less legit to me.  If White had one 0-for-11 performance that led to averages that didn’t reflect his typical output, it might be fair to exclude that performance.

[Atzar]

Why are we removing outliers in the first place? 

You don't get to pretend that game didn't happen just because it doesn't support an argument.  The whole point of waiting for sufficient sample sizes is that unusually positive results are eventually balanced out by unusually negative results, and vice versa.  But while we're filtering out data points that we don't like, why don't I get to discard his 21% three point shooting in Boston in favor of his more acceptable career average? 

Filter outliers or don't - I would prefer you just didn't, since his current shooting slump is a real thing that shouldn't be ignored and we definitely need him to work his way out of it - but at least be consistent.

I think a 1-game outlier is fine to exclude.  Richardson’s outlier performance of +28 souls also be excluded, but it’s a valid way of treating statistics for the purpose of argument.

What you seem to be arguing with the 3PT% is to exclude his entire Boston career?  That seems less legit to me.  If White had one 0-for-11 performance that led to averages that didn’t reflect his typical output, it might be fair to exclude that performance.

No, my point is that this behavior of hand-picking and removing outliers is not consistent.  On one hand we're trying to exclude the Philly game from the data, but on the other hand we're acting like White is such a dismal shooter that he won't be in the playoff rotation despite the fact that his career average from three is a not-great-but-certainly-not-unplayable 33%.  We're discarding one outlier while leaning on another, apparently to fit a conclusion we've already made and now need to support. 

Personally, I would prefer that we just didn't try to discard outliers at all.  The numbers are what they are, they've happened, and as more data points are obtained they'll normalize on their own without tampering.  Don't act like he isn't slumping, because he is.  But don't throw out the Philly game either.

[Hoopvortex]

Pritchard's minutes are a function of Schroeder's departure -- as this board clamored for endlessly to such an end -- not Richardson's.

There’s a lot of truth in this. However, Pritchard has mostly been on the floor with White (especially) or Smart; he’s playing off the ball a lot. So Richardson’s departure also helps open an opportunity for him.

One way to think about the trade-deadline moves is that the Celtics are now more generalists, more versatile, on offense; Richardson needed someone else to get him shots, and Schroeder had to have the ball in his hands.

By the same token, Payton can spot up, like Richardson, but he is much more of a distributor, with better skills off the dribble. And unlike Dennis, he doesn’t have to dominate the ball to be effective.

I follow -- this point has been made repeatedly.

I don’t think it has. No one else has made the points that I did. I don’t flatter myself that everyone is parsing my every utterance, and I won’t complain that people don’t understand me; but I do take some care not to parrot something others are already saying.

Of course, I made several points, not just one.

If White walking the ball up the floor, passing it off, then going and standing in the corner, allows Pritchard to motion more, come off screens, etc. -- fantastic.

In the case of both players, I see something quite different. Particularly striking in this context is how much offensive chemistry they’ve developed with each other. The coaching staff are no doubt gratified by Derrick’s ability to push it up the floor and drive the lane without turning it over - a point, I might add, that is not being made “repeatedly“ on this thread.

May I suggest (in case observation is insufficient), that a player doesn’t get a FTr of .289 by “walking the ball up the floor, passing it off, then going and standing in the corner”. (That number has been going up steadily in the last couple of weeks, btw, not surprisingly since he’s being incorporated on the fly in the middle of the season and is gradually earning more responsibility. In fact I wonder if your idea about his lack of movement might be based on his first few games while he was working in? Maybe take a longer look at more recent games...)

And again, I think it's absurd to suggest Pritchard couldn't play his current role with Richardson on the team or on the floor.

I quite agree, except that the White/Pritchard pairing gives you better shot creation. The other not-so-minor difference is that now Payton’s in the rotation. No wonder he’s been shooting so well. There’s nothing like consistent minutes to give a pro ball player consistent production.

Not enough has been made of the fact that the trade-deadline moves consolidated the roster. Management did all this in part because they thought that Payton and Aaron could take the next step. In the case of Payton, at least, they have their answer.

[Wretch]

If it matters the 2 player line up data with White and PP is +15.5/per 100 possessions (165 minutes) and PP/Richardson is -9 (231 minutes). There is obviously a lot of noise in the raw +/- numbers but on the surface but it looks like White makes players around him better even if it doesn't show up in the his counting stats.

I'd be interested to see who is getting the assists on PP shots when White in on the court, but I am not sure how to find that data.

[gouki88]

..and yet White is often the only minus in the Cs box score (unless Theis joins him). Why?

Probably because he's playing the bulk of the bench minutes, and is teamed up with lesser players?

And, he's +89 with the Celts.  Even if you discount the Philly game (where he was +41 in 27 minutes), he's still +48 here.

Josh Richardson was +53 here.

So, +53 in 44 games, or +89 in 17 games.  Explain to me how +/- is a winning argument for you?

Didn't you just make the argument? When you remove one absurd outlier for White in his limited stint, what's the difference between Richardson and White?

White getting to the same +/- in 16 games (and smashing it in 17 games) compared to Richardson's 44 game stint is a huge difference.

[Hoopvortex]

I'd be interested to see who is getting the assists on PP shots when White in on the court, but I am not sure how to find that data.

These are not those data, but the list from the last few games is nevertheless informative.

OKC Game:
Assist White on a kickout from dribble penetration
Creates his own shot on a step-back
Assist White on a kickout from dribble penetration
Dribble penetration for a layup after DHO in a set play
Assist GWilliams on a kickout from dribble penetration.
Assist Tatum on a skip pass.

Denver Game:
Assist Tatum on a kickout from dribble penetration
Assist GWilliams (after stealing the rebound)
Assist Tatum on a kickout from dribble penetration in early offense
Creates his own shot bringing the ball up in early offense
Assist Theis on a kickout from dribble penetration
Dribble penetration for a layup

Sacramento Game:
Assist White on the rotation
Gets a steal and takes it all the way for a layup
Assist White on a kickout from dribble penetration in early offense
Assist White on a kickout from dribble penetration
Assist Theis on a kickout

Golden State Game:
Long two after shotfake and one dribble, after dribble penetration and kickout by White (assist?)
Assist Brown after dribble penetration and kickout
Assist Tatum on a ‘horns’ set
Dribble penetration for a 15-footer

[slamtheking]

..and yet White is often the only minus in the Cs box score (unless Theis joins him). Why?

Probably because he's playing the bulk of the bench minutes, and is teamed up with lesser players?

And, he's +89 with the Celts.  Even if you discount the Philly game (where he was +41 in 27 minutes), he's still +48 here.

Josh Richardson was +53 here.

So, +53 in 44 games, or +89 in 17 games.  Explain to me how +/- is a winning argument for you?

Didn't you just make the argument? When you remove one absurd outlier for White in his limited stint, what's the difference between Richardson and White?

It’s a huge difference because +/- is a cumulative stat, so that numbers are nearly equal 17 vs. 44 games strongly favors White.

you're ignoring the fact that Richardson's time here was mostly during the time when the team was floundering - and not due to him so much as 3 starters having poor starts this season.   There's no way you can say that if Richardson was here instead of White during Tatum's ascension to superstar that his +/- wouldn't be significantly better than where it ended at the trade

[Kiorrik]

..and yet White is often the only minus in the Cs box score (unless Theis joins him). Why?

Probably because he's playing the bulk of the bench minutes, and is teamed up with lesser players?

And, he's +89 with the Celts.  Even if you discount the Philly game (where he was +41 in 27 minutes), he's still +48 here.

Josh Richardson was +53 here.

So, +53 in 44 games, or +89 in 17 games.  Explain to me how +/- is a winning argument for you?

Didn't you just make the argument? When you remove one absurd outlier for White in his limited stint, what's the difference between Richardson and White?

It’s a huge difference because +/- is a cumulative stat, so that numbers are nearly equal 17 vs. 44 games strongly favors White.

you're ignoring the fact that Richardson's time here was mostly during the time when the team was floundering - and not due to him so much as 3 starters having poor starts this season.   There's no way you can say that if Richardson was here instead of White during Tatum's ascension to superstar that his +/- wouldn't be significantly better than where it ended at the trade

I like this.

Discussion went from: just compare box +-, to yeah it says [this], to no it says [the opposite], to box +- can't be used here.

:]

[Celtics2021]

..and yet White is often the only minus in the Cs box score (unless Theis joins him). Why?

Probably because he's playing the bulk of the bench minutes, and is teamed up with lesser players?

And, he's +89 with the Celts.  Even if you discount the Philly game (where he was +41 in 27 minutes), he's still +48 here.

Josh Richardson was +53 here.

So, +53 in 44 games, or +89 in 17 games.  Explain to me how +/- is a winning argument for you?

Didn't you just make the argument? When you remove one absurd outlier for White in his limited stint, what's the difference between Richardson and White?

It’s a huge difference because +/- is a cumulative stat, so that numbers are nearly equal 17 vs. 44 games strongly favors White.

you're ignoring the fact that Richardson's time here was mostly during the time when the team was floundering - and not due to him so much as 3 starters having poor starts this season.   There's no way you can say that if Richardson was here instead of White during Tatum's ascension to superstar that his +/- wouldn't be significantly better than where it ended at the trade

Literally this discussion started by me comparing the net rating of Richardson’s last games here, when the Celtics went 12-4 with a net rating of 13.2 with White’s tenure, during which the Celtics went 13-3 with a net rating of 13.0, so the team was playing at the same level.  And I found that the C’s were more than 7 points better per 10 possessions with White than Richardson over these spans, so yeah, I can, and already did, say that.

[Wretch]

I'd be interested to see who is getting the assists on PP shots when White in on the court, but I am not sure how to find that data.

These are not those data, but the list from the last few games is nevertheless informative.

OKC Game:
Assist White on a kickout from dribble penetration
Creates his own shot on a step-back
Assist White on a kickout from dribble penetration
Dribble penetration for a layup after DHO in a set play
Assist GWilliams on a kickout from dribble penetration.
Assist Tatum on a skip pass.

Denver Game:
Assist Tatum on a kickout from dribble penetration
Assist GWilliams (after stealing the rebound)
Assist Tatum on a kickout from dribble penetration in early offense
Creates his own shot bringing the ball up in early offense
Assist Theis on a kickout from dribble penetration
Dribble penetration for a layup

Sacramento Game:
Assist White on the rotation
Gets a steal and takes it all the way for a layup
Assist White on a kickout from dribble penetration in early offense
Assist White on a kickout from dribble penetration
Assist Theis on a kickout

Golden State Game:
Long two after shotfake and one dribble, after dribble penetration and kickout by White (assist?)
Assist Brown after dribble penetration and kickout
Assist Tatum on a ‘horns’ set
Dribble penetration for a 15-footer

Thanks TP.  It from an anecdotal perspective that White is getting PP the ball in position to score. 6 of the 20 (if I counted right without my coffee this morning) PP baskets were assisted by White.

[Hoopvortex]

I'd be interested to see who is getting the assists on PP shots when White in on the court, but I am not sure how to find that data.

These are not those data, but the list from the last few games is nevertheless informative.

OKC Game:
Assist White on a kickout from dribble penetration
Creates his own shot on a step-back
Assist White on a kickout from dribble penetration
Dribble penetration for a layup after DHO in a set play
Assist GWilliams on a kickout from dribble penetration.
Assist Tatum on a skip pass.

Denver Game:
Assist Tatum on a kickout from dribble penetration
Assist GWilliams (after stealing the rebound)
Assist Tatum on a kickout from dribble penetration in early offense
Creates his own shot bringing the ball up in early offense
Assist Theis on a kickout from dribble penetration
Dribble penetration for a layup

Sacramento Game:
Assist White on the rotation
Gets a steal and takes it all the way for a layup
Assist White on a kickout from dribble penetration in early offense
Assist White on a kickout from dribble penetration
Assist Theis on a kickout

Golden State Game:
Long two after shotfake and one dribble, after dribble penetration and kickout by White (assist?)
Assist Brown after dribble penetration and kickout
Assist Tatum on a ‘horns’ set
Dribble penetration for a 15-footer

Thanks TP.  It from an anecdotal perspective that White is getting PP the ball in position to score. 6 of the 20 (if I counted right without my coffee this morning) PP baskets were assisted by White.

These are all of Pritchard's baskets in those four games. They weren't all scored with White in the game, by any means.

Other takeaways:

1) While most of these are assisted 3-pointers, the layup in the OKC game was an option in a set play.

2) This road trip is a watershed in the progress of his role on the team. A number of posters around here have advocated for management to get a Shooter, and I won't say that they're wrong; but it looks like that Shooter was already drafted by Danny Ainge. In fact, this road trip might well prove to be a watershed for the team because of Pritchard's reliability. As Chuck Daly once said, the defense breaks down on the third action.

3) While the assists by White stand out in this modest sample, all of his teammates are looking for him. Really head's-up move to the corner in the Denver game when Grant stole the rebound and in one motion whipped it to PP, as though they'd practiced it that way.

4) Most of the threes are spot-ups, but he's got some nifty dribble moves on a couple of them, most impressively the one-on-one stepback in the OKC game, which basically looks unguardable - he covered a lot of ground.

5) In a side note, he still looks very right-hand dominant, as we saw in Summer League. If he's going to increase his incidence of dribble-penetration, he'll have to work on his left hand.

6) He has real potential as an effective midrange shooter off the dribble, though it's true that his %s are lackluster up to this point.

7) This is his second year in the league. His future is bright.