Celtics lead the East in Net rating

[Celtics2021]

Contender in the sense that the East is such a crapshoot that you can make a compelling argument that any of a handful of teams can win the conference.  I certainly wouldn't rank them at the top of the east but, if some things fall right, they can contend.  I'm not terribly optimistic but feel better than I did back in December.

I do like the way they're gelling right now.  They gotta stay healthy, though. And that's almost never been the case the past few seasons.  The offensive lapses still scare the heck of me, though.

they're playing better now, for sure, and they're healthy.

I've been a doubter (a hater, even) of the team this year and I would be remiss to ignore the fact that the team is trending a lot better lately.


that said, for me the issue is the 4th quarter, and I'm not sure we have much evidence of change there.


I went through the team's record this year and in non-blowout games, the average 4th quarter margin is -2.46 points.

that doesn't sound too bad, really, but if you project that over an entire game that's basically losing by double digits.

here are the data points that really stand out to me:

11/01/21 loss at home to Chicago -- lost 4Q by 28
11/13/21 loss at Cleveland -- lost 4Q by 14
11/20/21 - win over OKC -- lost 4Q by 9
12/20/21 - 5 pts loss to Philly -- lost 4Q by 10
12/25/21 - loss to Bucks -- lost 4Q by 8
12/27/21 - loss to MIN -- lost 4Q by 10
1/6/22 - loss to NYK -- lost 4Q by 10
1/28/22 - loss to ATL -- lost 4Q by 13
2/4/22 - win over DET -- lost 4Q by 13


there have been *a lot* of games where this team has gotten blown out in the 4th quarter.

it's going to take a long stretch of mostly *not* doing that, including some gutty wins in actually competitive games against quality opponents where the Celts execute effectively in crunch time, before I believe that this team isn't going to lose control of its bowels at the end of even mildly close games.

Sure, but let’s look at a few of those 4th quarters you highlighted.  Two were the result of garbage time.  Vs. OKC the garbage crew was outscored by 7 in about 50 seconds of play, necessitating the starters being brought back in. Vs. Detroit on Friday, it was more of the same, with the garbage crew turning a 22 point game into a 7-point game in about 3 minutes, before holding on at the end to win by 9.

Three others came in a week-long span in December during the height of the C’s bout with Covid.   VS. Philly Freedom and Fernando played every minute at center, with Horford and both Williams out.  Embiid scored 41 points, 17 in the 4th.  That doesn’t seem to be a representative data point.  Against Milwaukee the Celtics were without 4 rotation players (Horford, Grant, Schröder, and Richardson).  Milwaukee had what will likely be their entire playoff rotation available.  Not surprising that by the end of the game, the C’s core four, which played 37-40 minutes that night, didn’t have enough energy to hang with a deeper Bucks team.  And two days later vs. Minnesota, Tatum was out with Covid, and we started the 4th with Sam Hauser and Jabari Parker on the floor, with Juancho having ended the 3rd quarter.  Pritchard played 45 minutes that night.

Have the C’s had a couple of stinker 4th quarters with their best players available this year?  Sure, that’s going to happen with any team.  Are most of the examples you pulled out representative?  No.

[PhoSita]

It's a bit mystifying to me that anybody could have watched this team the last two years and conclude that fourth quarter collapses are *not* representative of this team.

[Celtics4ever]

It's a bit mystifying to me that anybody could have watched this team the last two years and conclude that fourth quarter collapses are *not* representative of this team.

Well said , TP

[Celtics2021]

It's a bit mystifying to me that anybody could have watched this team the last two years and conclude that fourth quarter collapses are *not* representative of this team.

I mean, the Cs are 21-8 in games decided by fewer than 10 points, compared to 10-17 in games with a 10-point or greater margin.  They're 4-2 in overtime games.  Sure, they've blown a few games, a couple of them very memorably.  Even going back to Christmas, which includes 5 of the 10 collapses on your list, the Celtics are 10th in the NBA in net rating in the 4th quarter, at a positive +1.7.  That's better than teams like the Bucks, Bulls, and Sixers, who are supposed to be good 4th quarter teams.  This year's team is not last year's team, but the common thread of both has been a consistent lack of health, which is most likely to rear its head at the end of games (extra minutes means players are relatively more tired than their opponents, and players in unfamiliar roles lead to errors in communication at critical times).  A healthy Celtics team with their rotation all or mostly available on every night?  They might not be crunchtime masters like the Suns, but no, I don't think it's an especial liability.  I expect we'll see some closer games coming up, and while the C's won't win all of them, they'll win their fair share.

[Celtics4ever]

The Boston Celtics have dropped 1,450 points in the fourth quarter this season  with 56 games that comes to 25.8 per 4th on average.

https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/celtics-2022-4th-quarter-scoring

We are shooitng 42.8 FG in the 4th and 31.6 from the 3p

Honestly, I thought it would have been worse in terms of quarter scoring, from what my eyes see

[Vermont Green]

I tried to sort out the Celtics 4th qtr results but there are so many blow outs, it is really hard to get a representative sort.  We have been playing much better in January, winning, but with so many blow outs, we are at a +/- +1 for the month when Tatum, Brown, and Smart are on the court together.  I am not sure that means anything due to the nature of many of the games.

I agree that this team has something still to prove regarding the their ability to close games.  We have had a lot of injuries and COVID, like many teams.  Let's see how we do if we get some close, meaningful games down the stretch here.  I think Smart, Brown, Tatum have enough of a track record that I feel they can be good 4th qtr players.  Horford and RWill I worry about.  Schroder, Richardson, and GWill should be in the crunch time mix also.  Not sure what to expect from them. 

[sgrogan]

It's a bit mystifying to me that anybody could have watched this team the last two years and conclude that fourth quarter collapses are *not* representative of this team.

I mean, the Cs are 21-8 in games decided by fewer than 10 points, compared to 10-17 in games with a 10-point or greater margin.  They're 4-2 in overtime games.  Sure, they've blown a few games, a couple of them very memorably.  Even going back to Christmas, which includes 5 of the 10 collapses on your list, the Celtics are 10th in the NBA in net rating in the 4th quarter, at a positive +1.7.  That's better than teams like the Bucks, Bulls, and Sixers, who are supposed to be good 4th quarter teams.  This year's team is not last year's team, but the common thread of both has been a consistent lack of health, which is most likely to rear its head at the end of games (extra minutes means players are relatively more tired than their opponents, and players in unfamiliar roles lead to errors in communication at critical times).  A healthy Celtics team with their rotation all or mostly available on every night?  They might not be crunchtime masters like the Suns, but no, I don't think it's an especial liability.  I expect we'll see some closer games coming up, and while the C's won't win all of them, they'll win their fair share.

I think if you chose 5 or even  points the results would change.

I think the C's are a young talented team learning to overcome adversity.
When the inevitable scoring droughts come the defensive intensity wanes, they hang their heads a little bit, then the offense stagnates and it gets worse. I don't want to call them front runners, but in general they feed off the positive momentum on both ends of the floor.

I've seen improvement since the new year, with the top 8 healthy. They get a lead, the other team makes a run, they regroup and extend the lead. Mostly because they don't stop playing defense. I'm looking forward to see if this translates in close games.

They are not an elite shooting team, so I think they need to stop the runs on defense.

[Celtics2021]

It's a bit mystifying to me that anybody could have watched this team the last two years and conclude that fourth quarter collapses are *not* representative of this team.

I mean, the Cs are 21-8 in games decided by fewer than 10 points, compared to 10-17 in games with a 10-point or greater margin.  They're 4-2 in overtime games.  Sure, they've blown a few games, a couple of them very memorably.  Even going back to Christmas, which includes 5 of the 10 collapses on your list, the Celtics are 10th in the NBA in net rating in the 4th quarter, at a positive +1.7.  That's better than teams like the Bucks, Bulls, and Sixers, who are supposed to be good 4th quarter teams.  This year's team is not last year's team, but the common thread of both has been a consistent lack of health, which is most likely to rear its head at the end of games (extra minutes means players are relatively more tired than their opponents, and players in unfamiliar roles lead to errors in communication at critical times).  A healthy Celtics team with their rotation all or mostly available on every night?  They might not be crunchtime masters like the Suns, but no, I don't think it's an especial liability.  I expect we'll see some closer games coming up, and while the C's won't win all of them, they'll win their fair share.

I think if you chose 5 or even  points the results would change.

I think the C's are a young talented team learning to overcome adversity.
When the inevitable scoring droughts come the defensive intensity wanes, they hang their heads a little bit, then the offense stagnates and it gets worse. I don't want to call them front runners, but in general they feed off the positive momentum on both ends of the floor.

I've seen improvement since the new year, with the top 8 healthy. They get a lead, the other team makes a run, they regroup and extend the lead. Mostly because they don't stop playing defense. I'm looking forward to see if this translates in close games.

They are not an elite shooting team, so I think they need to stop the runs on defense.

I looked for 5 points and couldn’t find it, for what it’s worth, they’re 3-6 in 3-point games, but that excludes 3 OT wins and 1 OT loss that were outside of that margin (and I think you should include those because tied at the end of regulation is a one-possession game).  Put them back in and they’re 6-7 in 3-point games.  Not great, but pretty close to the coin flip you’d expect games that come down to a single shot to be.

[sgrogan]

It's a bit mystifying to me that anybody could have watched this team the last two years and conclude that fourth quarter collapses are *not* representative of this team.

I mean, the Cs are 21-8 in games decided by fewer than 10 points, compared to 10-17 in games with a 10-point or greater margin.  They're 4-2 in overtime games.  Sure, they've blown a few games, a couple of them very memorably.  Even going back to Christmas, which includes 5 of the 10 collapses on your list, the Celtics are 10th in the NBA in net rating in the 4th quarter, at a positive +1.7.  That's better than teams like the Bucks, Bulls, and Sixers, who are supposed to be good 4th quarter teams.  This year's team is not last year's team, but the common thread of both has been a consistent lack of health, which is most likely to rear its head at the end of games (extra minutes means players are relatively more tired than their opponents, and players in unfamiliar roles lead to errors in communication at critical times).  A healthy Celtics team with their rotation all or mostly available on every night?  They might not be crunchtime masters like the Suns, but no, I don't think it's an especial liability.  I expect we'll see some closer games coming up, and while the C's won't win all of them, they'll win their fair share.

I think if you chose 5 or even  points the results would change.

I think the C's are a young talented team learning to overcome adversity.
When the inevitable scoring droughts come the defensive intensity wanes, they hang their heads a little bit, then the offense stagnates and it gets worse. I don't want to call them front runners, but in general they feed off the positive momentum on both ends of the floor.

I've seen improvement since the new year, with the top 8 healthy. They get a lead, the other team makes a run, they regroup and extend the lead. Mostly because they don't stop playing defense. I'm looking forward to see if this translates in close games.

They are not an elite shooting team, so I think they need to stop the runs on defense.

I looked for 5 points and couldn’t find it, for what it’s worth, they’re 3-6 in 3-point games, but that excludes 3 OT wins and 1 OT loss that were outside of that margin (and I think you should include those because tied at the end of regulation is a one-possession game).  Put them back in and they’re 6-7 in 3-point games.  Not great, but pretty close to the coin flip you’d expect games that come down to a single shot to be.

Fair enough, thanks for looking. I still think this team hasn't shown the mental fortitude yet. Yea, I know a bunch of mumbo, jumbo. If they learn to play defense, even in hard situations, they will be better off.