Celtics lead the East in Net rating

[Celtics2021]

As a result of the team's recent play, the Celtics now lead the conference in net rating, and are 4th in the NBA.  Wins matter more, but net rating is highly predictive of success, and we're more than 2/3 of the way through the season.  While this number is certainly buoyed by our competition of late, all the top teams have had similar stretches of their schedule.  The numbers say this team is a true contender to come out of the East.

So what do you say: Is this team a true contender?  I say yes.  Although we have some flaws, clearly everyone else does too, otherwise they'd be ahead of us.  We just see our flaws nightly, and so are biased against them.

[Donoghus]

Contender in the sense that the East is such a crapshoot that you can make a compelling argument that any of a handful of teams can win the conference.  I certainly wouldn't rank them at the top of the east but, if some things fall right, they can contend.  I'm not terribly optimistic but feel better than I did back in December.

I do like the way they're gelling right now.  They gotta stay healthy, though. And that's almost never been the case the past few seasons.  The offensive lapses still scare the heck of me, though.

[smokeablount]

I think they’re a contender in the East, along with 5-6 other teams.

As of right now it looks wide open, even with Mil & Brooklyn lurking.

[radiohead]

Who would have thought that this was even possible with how bad the Celtics started out. Full credit to Ime on this. I’ve been complaining about how he needs to play the young guys but hey, this 8 man rotation is working. The Celtics are fun to watch again!

[slamtheking]

how they fare in the next 3 games should provide a good indication of whether they're a team that can make noise in the playoffs or will be a team that just gets to the playoffs and will be lucky to win a series

[seancally]

Sure. But matchups will make a big difference this season, as will whatever happens to Brooklyn.

Coming into the playoffs as a bottom-4 seed, we’d need to beat two of Cleveland/Chicago/Milwaukee/Miami (probably) to make the ECF. I feel good about all but Miami, who pose some problems when healthy as they are very well-coached. I do not wanna get stuck in a play-in game against Brooklyn if they continue to backslide, but then suddenly have Durant and Irving available for the playoffs. Sixers might also be in that bunch if they win their first-round series against, say, Cleveland.

But it’s a weak East without a doubt. And frankly regardless of how the Simmons-Harden stuff shakes out I don’t know if either team becomes tremendously better. Harden/Embiid could be scary, or it could flop. Harden needs to show me he can step up in the playoffs.

[Moranis]

If Giannis is healthy, the Celtics cannot beat the Bucks.  If Durant, Harden, and half-time Irving are healthy, the Celtics cannot beat the Nets.  Other than that, the C's match-up fairly well with any other team in the East.  I'd probably favor the Heat and Sixers in a close series, but the C's should be favored against any other team as Tatum would be the best player on the floor against any other team and that just matters.  It has been that way all season long though.  Nothing has changed in my view.

[droopdog7]

I would imagine net rating less predictive for two reasons:

So many guys out nowadays and we're whole

Ime ALREADY playing a playoff rotation.

[Neurotic Guy]

I would imagine net rating less predictive for two reasons:

So many guys out nowadays and we're whole

Ime ALREADY playing a playoff rotation.

How much has net rating improved feasting on teams recently including the 50+ win?
Also the issue of losing close games would seem to lead to a net rating that appears better than W-L record. 

[Neurotic Guy]

how they fare in the next 3 games should provide a good indication of whether they're a team that can make noise in the playoffs or will be a team that just gets to the playoffs and will be lucky to win a series

Totally agree with this. Next 3 games will either feel like this is still the inconsistent team that frustrated earlier in the season. Or will demonstrate clearly that the team has taken a leap forward.  Big games these 3.

[Celtics2021]

I would imagine net rating less predictive for two reasons:

So many guys out nowadays and we're whole

Ime ALREADY playing a playoff rotation.

We were out guys in the early part of the season while everyone else was whole, and our net rating suffered because of that.  This is a full-season number, not the number over the last 6 weeks or so which has the C’s #1 in the NBA by a sizable margin.

[tazzmaniac]

None of the teams in the East has a good record against teams that are .500 or above.  Celtics and Heat are best at 14-13 and the Cavs are at 15-14.  The rest are below .500 with the Nets at 10-18. 
If the Celtics can at least get home court in the 1st round, I think they've got as good a chance as any team to win the East. 

[LilRip]

Unfortunately, not a contender. The C’s are a lock for the playoffs though and even during the .500 days, we still looked talented enough to make the playoffs. Prior to the season, I think many on here predicted we’d finish somewhere between 4-8 and that’s probably what’s going to happen. That said, I’d still be surprised if we make it past the 1st round.

The biggest “acquisition” this coming offseason will be Tatum taking another leap (likely his last one) and I hope that (plus some roster tweaks like adding shooting) will be enough to vault us into contention.

[seancally]

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[PhoSita]

Contender in the sense that the East is such a crapshoot that you can make a compelling argument that any of a handful of teams can win the conference.  I certainly wouldn't rank them at the top of the east but, if some things fall right, they can contend.  I'm not terribly optimistic but feel better than I did back in December.

I do like the way they're gelling right now.  They gotta stay healthy, though. And that's almost never been the case the past few seasons.  The offensive lapses still scare the heck of me, though.

they're playing better now, for sure, and they're healthy.

I've been a doubter (a hater, even) of the team this year and I would be remiss to ignore the fact that the team is trending a lot better lately.


that said, for me the issue is the 4th quarter, and I'm not sure we have much evidence of change there.


I went through the team's record this year and in non-blowout games, the average 4th quarter margin is -2.46 points.

that doesn't sound too bad, really, but if you project that over an entire game that's basically losing by double digits.

here are the data points that really stand out to me:

11/01/21 loss at home to Chicago -- lost 4Q by 28
11/13/21 loss at Cleveland -- lost 4Q by 14
11/20/21 - win over OKC -- lost 4Q by 9
12/20/21 - 5 pts loss to Philly -- lost 4Q by 10
12/25/21 - loss to Bucks -- lost 4Q by 8
12/27/21 - loss to MIN -- lost 4Q by 10
1/6/22 - loss to NYK -- lost 4Q by 10
1/28/22 - loss to ATL -- lost 4Q by 13
2/4/22 - win over DET -- lost 4Q by 13


there have been *a lot* of games where this team has gotten blown out in the 4th quarter.

it's going to take a long stretch of mostly *not* doing that, including some gutty wins in actually competitive games against quality opponents where the Celts execute effectively in crunch time, before I believe that this team isn't going to lose control of its bowels at the end of even mildly close games.