Does Recent Win Streak Change Anything?

[ozgod]

I'm curious what everyone thinks about the Celtics' recent success, particularly as it relates to the team's strategy at the trade deadline.

In some ways the team's play in the last 15 games or so has muddied the waters. What a month ago would be a totally irrational move (i.e. standing pat at the deadline) now seems to be a legitimate, if not viable, option. On the other hand, the Celtics' long term trajectory has by no means changed -- they aren't championship contenders. Therefore it probably would be good to open up playing time for Pritchard, Nesmith, and Langford.

Where is the team as we approach the deadline next week?

My guess is they will double down and try to go as far as they can. If they haven't opened up playing time for the young guys with the season they've had, they won't when they are now starting to have success. Otherwise they would have done that months ago.

End of day, for all the wrist slitting and self mortification we've all done here after tough losses, we're still only 5 games out of 1st spot, 2 games out of 6th and 3.5 games out of 4th spot with the 9th easiest schedule in the NBA with 28 games still to go. The only competitive teams with easier schedules than ours are Cleveland, Toronto, Atlanta and Washington and of those teams only Cleveland and Toronto are above us. I wouldn't be surprised to see Brad take a glass half full approach. He has his credibility with the team and the players to consider, and they wouldn't think much of him or the organization if he folded at this point because of how we were playing 2 months ago.

I think the odds are that we move on from Dennis, despite the fact that he's been a solid contributor, just because it makes too much financial sense not to. But I would look for Brad to strengthen the team to reduce the impact of that change. Maybe some moves around the fringes, like Fernando, to help the team financially. That would show some confidence in the current group, without going too overboard while still keeping options open for next year.

I doubt they move any of Payton, Aaron or Romeo - I think they like the upside and right now they won't get that much for them in return anyway. And I think Ime likes Romeo because he has fit in to a role defensively and can be plugged into the system if needed. PP and Aaron less so because while they might be more noticeable offensively and with hustle, they get exposed on defense a lot more, particularly Aaron who sometimes still doesn't know where he is supposed to be on rotation and leaves shooters open on the perimeter. I suspect that's the main reason he's not on the court as much as Romeo is.

[Surferdad]

I'd still trade Schroder. He seems like a good guy, but his fit isn't great when we are fully healthy. And I still think we should get below the tax this season.

Now, though, I'd look to move on from one or both of Nesmith/Romeo. I realize they don't have much value, but we need someone - anyone - who you can put in the game and not have it blow up immediately. Romeo is probably the safer player to keep, but he also has one less year on his contract.

Yeah, that’s closer to where I’m at.  Trading both of them to Indiana for Justin Holiday would be a nice move if Stevens could swing it.  I don’t think either would provide more value than Holiday this year or next (when Holiday is still under contract), and it saves the team money too.  I’m ready to put Pritchard in the boat and send him off the ship too at this point, and although he’s generally looked the best when he’s gotten consistent playing time, I wouldn’t say he’s looked “good”.

Also, I’m not saying the team as a whole is a contender, but their top 8 absolutely is a contender.  There’s no one in the East running away with the conference.  The C’s are 7-6 against the top 6 in the East.  The problem is the “if healthy” condition because we only have 8 guys, but if we do defy the odds and stay healthy the rest of the season, we’re absolutely capable of winning any series against a team from the East, and we’ll also move higher in the standings.

Agreed.  There is simply no excuse for NBA players to not be able to escape a trap.  Pistons very nearly made it a game at the end.  It looked liked it was going to be a waste of an outstanding performance by the rotation guys.  Ship out Schroder and one or more of PP/RL/AN and bring in a ninth man, a reliable vet. Team needs this to be competitive in the playoffs.

Stevens did an interview with Sports Illustrated published on 2/3 where he said his focus was on what would bring a banner.

Brad can say he’s focused on a championship but that doesn’t mean the next move is going to get them there.

[Who]

Nope.

I worry it is more likely to have a negative effect than a positive one. That the front office believe this team is better than it is and does not need as much change / upgrades as it requires.

This doesn’t make sense.  The worry would be they they become buyers and sell part of the future for this year.  Not a person on earth thinks we don’t need to get better eventually.  The hard part of actually doing it.

What is going to change now versus a year from now or two years from now?

What is the benefit of waiting?

The only benefit I see is if there is no deal to be made. Better to do no deal than force a bad deal. Short of that, due to lack of quality prospects on the team + lack of high yield draft pick slots + lack of cap flexibility there is not a whole lotta point in waiting for a better day tomorrow. The time is now.

And due to our lack of flexibility, mortgaging our future draft picks is one of the two hands we have to play. The other is dumping all contracts outside of the Jays and Timelord and going after free agency. There is no other avenue to major improvement that is a decent likelihood of success.

[tonydelk]

I think the win streak still shows their strengths and weaknesses.  This team needs a backup PG who can shoot and another wing who can shoot.

I'd love small deals and get a guy like PJ Wasgington and maybe a PG like white from chicago.

[Rosco917]

First look at the teams they played before evaluating the streak. All in all, they played a few decent teams (slightly over .500) dealing with injuries. The rest were teams struggling AND with injuries. 

Young players, like we have get involved with electronic media regularly, I'm gonna guess the starters have read and heard the rumblings from fans and are playing on their best behavior. Smart has been mostly responsible in shot selection and consistent in his passing game. The same can be said of the J's, honestly they've been well controlled. Tatum is going to the hole and his overall shot volume has declined a little, same with Jaylen. IMO desperate and poor shots have declined somewhat.

Does the win streak change anything? For me yes, it's a sign they may be are getting it. Perhaps they'll relate the streak with the more controlled approach.

The problem is, the difficulty in signing the additional player (or players) they desperately need under the current salary restrictions. Other than Smart, the J's, and TL the team is limited to trading a nickel for five pennies, it's not a deep team. Unless ownership decides it time to pay more tax, and roll the dice with this team as it stands.   

 

[footey]

The win streak should have the following effect on management decision making at the trade deadline:

1. We are not trading Marcus Smart, he sets the defensive mindset of this team, which we are grooming to be its core identity. And he is proving out to be a good point guard who complements our two pillars well as he recognizes that he should keep his shots to under 10 per game.

2. We are not trading Josh Richardson (who until recently seemed to be a goner) unless we get a first round pick back.

3.  We may trade Schroder, but it has to be for at least a high 2nd round pick (which CLE currently holds two of in 2022 draft). We are not giving him away for anything worse. Prior to the streak, we were prepared to basically give him away.

4.  Game experience of the three young guys is taking a back seat to moving up as high in the standings and at least try to secure 6th seed and avoid the play-in. 

[Goldstar88]

I honestly think the C’s should stand pat until the off-season. They are finally starting to click on offense and the defense has been elite. An 8 man rotation of Smart, Brown, Tatum, Horford, Timelord  with a bench of Richardson, Schroder, Grant has been solid. I don’t see any realistic moves that improve this unit and when the C’s make the playoffs, you only need 8 guys. If they keep playing the way that they have been, who knows what this teams ceiling is.

In terms of deep bench, Romeo is steady enough to contribute if called upon and his defense has been good all year. If you need 10-15 minutes out of Kanter if Al or Tomelord are out, fine.  Pritchard, Nesmith and Bruno are not ready, though. Even though Pritchard shoots well, he’s too much of a liability defensively to play right now. Nesmith has been bad on both ends and Bruno is just raw. I can’t imagine them having any trade value at this point, but hopefully  they develop enough in the off-season to contribute next year.

[W8ting2McHale]

@CelticsBlog seems to be full of - this winning streak is entirely due to weak opponents and quality teams missing starters, nothing has changed - types of opinions.

Which is partially true. What’s also true is that the early season struggles were due to the difficult schedule with a lot of road games the first 2 months that helped make our record worse than the talent level. That coupled with key players missing games to injury and illness really held us back with a rookie coach at the helm.

But every season balances out at the end. Maybe the Celtics aren’t as good as their last ten games suggests, but they weren’t as bad as all those weeks under .500 either.

This season was always going to be about how far can the J’s take us and what does their support look like. For all the teeth gnashing and hair tearing, this season has gone exactly as I expected it would, albeit with 3-4 more loses thanks to injury and Covid that I didn’t account for. I expected us to struggle early with a heavy road schedule and a new coach and I expected us to come out of January looking like a decent team. It is still a team that will only go as far as the J’s can carry them, but it’s finally starting to look like it’s not just them, with RW-3 and Richardson stepping up and Smart learning his role. The young guys haven’t developed as much as I had hoped. I expected at least one to look like a serviceable rotation 7-9 player, but only Romeo is barely reaching that level.

[libermaniac]

One thing I’ve been considering is that despite seeming to be a horribly mediocre team this year, if we hadn’t blown at least 4 games that appeared totally in the bag (2 20 point leads and like 2 teen leads in the mid-4th quarter), the Cs would be 1 game out of the top spot. I’m not sure what to think of this team.

[Moranis]

Schedule got easier and team got healthier.  Really nothing more than that

[SparzWizard]

Lack of consistency and unless they prove they can win the first few rounds of playoffs...they're still a dud.

[Goldstar88]

Schedule got easier and team got healthier.  Really nothing more than that

C’s were losing to bad teams with their full roster earlier in the season. Letting huge leads slip away. The offense and ball movement had been horrendous as well. That sort of thing has not been happening as of late. Its much more than simply an “easier schedule and being healthy.”

[LilRip]

The recent win streak made me believe more in Smart as a PG. Not sure if he’s the answer we’re looking for but he does seem more comfortable in that position than the start of the season. Otherwise, i think we largely face the same problems:
- lack of shooting
- jays don’t maximize each other
- still weak at the 4 (I don’t think Tatum as a full time 4 is the answer)

[wdleehi]

I think it reinforces the idea behind building on the core 4.

I think Richardson and Grant have proven to be good bench players.

I think Schroder needs to go if for no other reason then to see if Pritchard is the right backup PG for that group.

Horford can be moved if it leads to the Celtics finding a possible long term 5th starter.

[nickagneta]

The recent win streak made me believe more in Smart as a PG. Not sure if he’s the answer we’re looking for but he does seem more comfortable in that position than the start of the season. Otherwise, i think we largely face the same problems:
- lack of shooting
- jays don’t maximize each other
- still weak at the 4 (I don’t think Tatum as a full time 4 is the answer)

Tatum is only 23 and still has a good 10-15 pounds of full grown man muscle to add over the next 3 years of his contract.

If people don't think he is a PF now, fine. But by the time he fully develops his body, he will be a PF that will have ridiculous advantages over almost every other PF in the game.