Author Topic: Missed Draft Opportunities since the End of the Big 3  (Read 5643 times)

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Missed Draft Opportunities since the End of the Big 3
« on: January 10, 2022, 05:02:33 PM »

Offline keevsnick

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As the Celtics have lost assets the last few years one thing that leaps right out is the near misses the C's have had in the draft. Chances to rebuild their asset stock through the draft that they've JUUUUUST missed on. I thought I'd compile a list and allow people to respond what their most painful Celtics draft miss was. These could be when a guy went just ahead of the C's pick, when the c's traded a pick they could have used on a great draft guy, or when a guy went soon AFTER the C's pick and they took someone else. Some ideas:

2013 Olynyk over Giannis: This was actually a trade up, the C's had the 16th pick and when the trade for the 13th was announced I was sure Boston was doing it to take Giannis, even though he was a complete unknown it seemed like the perfect risk for a team about to rebuild. Instead they took Kelly "T-Rex Arms" Olynyk. But hey, we'll always have that Wizards Playoff game. This will always be my own, personal worst miss. Because Giannis was my guy in that draft (I love athletic, long, "potential" guys).

2014 Missing out on a top three pick: This draft was hyped to have a strong top three. As it turns out Wiggins and parker never met their potential, and Smart at 6 was a fine pick. But man, Embiid at 3 in the year when you tied for the 4th worst record. Also, James Young draft complete waste at 17, but nobody picked close by really stands out.

2015 Missed Booker by 3 spots: This is the year the C's took Terry, fine pick at 16. Of course Devin booker went 13 so maybe the c's would have been better off missing the playoffs instead of losing to the hawks in the first round. Might have lucked into Booker.

2016 Zizic, Yabu picks wasted: Brown at 3, great pick. They also had 16 and 23 which were Yabuselle and Zizic. Malik Beasley, Caris LeVert went 19 and 20. Siakam and Brogdon went 27 and 36. I can't claim i was high on any of those guys still missed opportunity. Feels like a year you missed on better talent because you were trying to compete and decided to stash guys.

2017 No Complaints: Nailed the Fultz/Tatum swap. No other picks.

2018 Traded #8 For Kyrie: Here's where things heat up. C's traded pick that became #8 for Kyrie, which is a move most people were fine with. But man, if they hadn't. Sexton who went 8 would have helped, but 10, 11 and 12 in that draft were Mikal Bridges, SGA, Miles Bridges and then at 14 Michael Porter Jr all of whom would have been ideal pieces next to Jaylen and Jayson. Tried to accelerate the timeline, things back fired. Probably should have just picked one timeline.  ​Did get RWIII at 27, great pick.

2019 Hero at 13, Langford at 14:  Celtics were linked with Hero, Celtics had draft ammunition to move up to get him, he goes one spot ahead of  Langford. Brutal. Celtics also had 20 which they traded for 24 and 33. They traded 24 along with Baynes I think to move off his money to PHO, they used 33 on Carsen Edwards. Probably should have just kept Thybulle at 20. Wasted pick, but hey at least ownership saved some money! Yay Wyc! Took Grant at 24, fine pick.

2020 Haliburton at 12, Nesmith at 14: Another draft where a guy who the C's were linked too, mostly because he was a perfect fit, goes just ahead of the C's spot. To rub salt in the wound the c's also had 26 and 47, so some ammo to move up. PHO took Jalen Smith at 10, who was projected to be in the late first round by most. Could the c's have done a 14+26 for 10 deal to get Haliburton? We will never know.

BONUS

2020 Nesmith 14, Cole Anthony 15: Anthony is averaging 20/6/6 this year if you haven't been watching the Magic. One pick after Nesmith. Brutal.

DOUBLE BONUS:

2020 Trade Bane at 30: We traded this pick for 2 second rounders. Kanter was also in the deal, but POR ended up taking him basically for free, so it really was just to dump the pick. The C's traded Bane who is averaging 18/4.5/2.5 basically just because they didn't want another young guy on the roster that year. Just stupid.

2021 Horford trade loses us Sengun: Sengun was projected to be a top 10 pick by most analysts, C's make the Kemba/Horford swap in advance of draft costing the 16th pick which ended up being Sengun. OKCA actually tardes the pick to HOU for 2 1st rounders. He's averaging 9/5/2.5/1/1 in 18 minutes per game with an intriguing scoring/passing mix as a big. Horford has been better than Kemba for sure, but he's sub 30% from three and this trade was mostly done to save ownership 7 million a year (Kemba at 34 million, Horford at 27) this year and next (luxury tax savings!).

So what have been your favorite/most painful draft misses the last 9 years?

Re: Missed Draft Opportunities since the End of the Big 3
« Reply #1 on: January 10, 2022, 06:01:51 PM »

Offline liam

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BBAAAAAANNNNEEEE! :'(

Re: Missed Draft Opportunities since the End of the Big 3
« Reply #2 on: January 10, 2022, 06:28:39 PM »

Offline Csfan1984

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Quickley just before PP

Re: Missed Draft Opportunities since the End of the Big 3
« Reply #3 on: January 10, 2022, 07:05:50 PM »

Offline Surferdad

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As somebody stated in another thread, you can do this for any team and monday-morning-quarterback the choices.  Drafting is at best imperfect.  Even The Process in Philly had a number of missteps.  They netted Embiid but missed in a lot of other ways.

Re: Missed Draft Opportunities since the End of the Big 3
« Reply #4 on: January 10, 2022, 07:49:07 PM »

Kiorrik

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As somebody stated in another thread, you can do this for any team and monday-morning-quarterback the choices.  Drafting is at best imperfect.  Even The Process in Philly had a number of missteps.  They netted Embiid but missed in a lot of other ways.

Yeah, we had percentages of drafting up in that other thread. That was eye-opening. Especially how almost every single pick is pretty much a 50% AT BEST, dropping to stupid odds below the 10th spot.

Re: Missed Draft Opportunities since the End of the Big 3
« Reply #5 on: January 10, 2022, 08:07:01 PM »

Kiorrik

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http://www.82games.com/nbadraftpicks.htm

Found the article

Notice how beyond 6th position, your chance to draft a solid player drops below 50%.

Re: Missed Draft Opportunities since the End of the Big 3
« Reply #6 on: January 10, 2022, 08:07:45 PM »

Offline Sophomore

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I appreciate the OP giving his view of good picks and bad picks.

Re: Missed Draft Opportunities since the End of the Big 3
« Reply #7 on: January 10, 2022, 09:20:13 PM »

Offline GreenlyGreeny

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Lots of folks missed on those players, so those were not necessarily mistakes. The biggest mistake was not consolidating all of those picks and/or moving them for someone like Kawhi or PG-13 when they became available. Ya just gotta try to see if they’ll fall in love with Boston when they’re available. The two literally wound up wanting to play together. Imagine if we had traded for both, they fell in love with Boston, and were currently paired with Tatum? Instead, Ainge started dancing with French Bears 🐻 and we’re at .500 with less hope than anytime since 2015ish.

Re: Missed Draft Opportunities since the End of the Big 3
« Reply #8 on: January 10, 2022, 09:45:27 PM »

Offline SparzWizard

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I think we regret not trading the 2018 BKN pick/some players for Paul George or Jimmy Butler that one summer and instead pursued Gordon Hayward in free agency (which turned out to be...a bust for his contract with Boston). We didn't even need to unload the #3 pick which became Tatum or give them Brown for one of those two SFs. Kemba Walker was also a bad max contract guy too.

But that Olynyk over Giannis pick will always kill me. That James Young, Zizic, Yabusele, Edwards, Rozier (Scary Terry for one year)...all of those nonsense picks were frustrating. Langford and Nesmith are also gonna fall into this category if they can't stay healthy or if they don't improve their game.


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Re: Missed Draft Opportunities since the End of the Big 3
« Reply #9 on: January 10, 2022, 10:32:36 PM »

Kiorrik

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I think we regret not trading the 2018 BKN pick/some players for Paul George or Jimmy Butler that one summer and instead pursued Gordon Hayward in free agency (which turned out to be...a bust for his contract with Boston). We didn't even need to unload the #3 pick which became Tatum or give them Brown for one of those two SFs. Kemba Walker was also a bad max contract guy too.

But that Olynyk over Giannis pick will always kill me. That James Young, Zizic, Yabusele, Edwards, Rozier (Scary Terry for one year)...all of those nonsense picks were frustrating. Langford and Nesmith are also gonna fall into this category if they can't stay healthy or if they don't improve their game.

Can't win them all. That's exactly what a game of chance the draft is.

14 teams passed on Giannis. Not 14 people; 14 TEAMS.

That a lot.

Re: Missed Draft Opportunities since the End of the Big 3
« Reply #10 on: January 10, 2022, 10:38:14 PM »

Offline Surferdad

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I appreciate the OP giving his view of good picks and bad picks.
Agreed. TP to the OP

Re: Missed Draft Opportunities since the End of the Big 3
« Reply #11 on: January 11, 2022, 12:20:14 AM »

Offline keevsnick

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As somebody stated in another thread, you can do this for any team and monday-morning-quarterback the choices.  Drafting is at best imperfect.  Even The Process in Philly had a number of missteps.  They netted Embiid but missed in a lot of other ways.

To be clear, I'm not trying to say the Celtics are any better or worse than any other team at drafting. Its mostly just a "what if...." day dreaming type of thing.

Like Haliburton would be perfect on this team, literally the ideal jays PG. We missed him by two picks in a draft we an extra first rounder. Sooooo close.

Re: Missed Draft Opportunities since the End of the Big 3
« Reply #12 on: January 11, 2022, 12:25:27 AM »

Offline wiley

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I think we regret not trading the 2018 BKN pick/some players for Paul George or Jimmy Butler that one summer and instead pursued Gordon Hayward in free agency (which turned out to be...a bust for his contract with Boston). We didn't even need to unload the #3 pick which became Tatum or give them Brown for one of those two SFs. Kemba Walker was also a bad max contract guy too.

But that Olynyk over Giannis pick will always kill me. That James Young, Zizic, Yabusele, Edwards, Rozier (Scary Terry for one year)...all of those nonsense picks were frustrating. Langford and Nesmith are also gonna fall into this category if they can't stay healthy or if they don't improve their game.

the only problem with the Rozier pick was not keeping him on the team post Kyrie.

Re: Missed Draft Opportunities since the End of the Big 3
« Reply #13 on: January 11, 2022, 12:26:37 AM »

Offline keevsnick

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I think we regret not trading the 2018 BKN pick/some players for Paul George or Jimmy Butler that one summer and instead pursued Gordon Hayward in free agency (which turned out to be...a bust for his contract with Boston). We didn't even need to unload the #3 pick which became Tatum or give them Brown for one of those two SFs. Kemba Walker was also a bad max contract guy too.

But that Olynyk over Giannis pick will always kill me. That James Young, Zizic, Yabusele, Edwards, Rozier (Scary Terry for one year)...all of those nonsense picks were frustrating. Langford and Nesmith are also gonna fall into this category if they can't stay healthy or if they don't improve their game.

Can't win them all. That's exactly what a game of chance the draft is.

14 teams passed on Giannis. Not 14 people; 14 TEAMS.

That a lot.

Sure but how  many of those teams traded up from below where he ended up getting drafted to above where he was drafted? In a year they were starting a rebuild? After being linked to him ahead of time?

Thats more what this post is, a what if designed to torture myself. Inspired by all the Bane second guessing.

Re: Missed Draft Opportunities since the End of the Big 3
« Reply #14 on: January 11, 2022, 12:27:53 AM »

Offline wiley

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Forgot which draft Dejounte Murray was in...the Yabu/Zizic draft?

I liked him and would have been excited to see him picked.  I thought he kind of moved in a slithery way that reminded me of Pierce, and he seemed like a good gamble to develop and be good down the road.

I did want Quickley too....I even proposed a pre draft trade where we get an extra pick and take Quickely....though in that trade scenario we wouldn't have got him as it was for pick 31 and he was gone....