Trade Idea to Set Up for Offseason

[Celtics2021]

When you factor re-signing Rubio it gets more interesting to me. But: I believe Josh Richardson can't be traded until this summer. Fanspo's trade machine states Feb 19th, which is after the trade deadline. Can anyone confirm?

Fanspo is likely incorrect.  The NBA reduced the trade restriction time for extensions signed this offseason, since the offseason was a month earlier.  I've seen Smart's restriction ending on January 25th.  Richardon's likely within a couple of days of that, depending on when he signed.

[Roy H.]

Not near enough value for both Schroder and Richardson.  Richardson and Hernangomez I'd do though.

Not near enough value? We'd get a first for 2 backup players. Imo, it's an easy yes for the C's. I bet the Cavs say no. First-round picks are valuable assets.

1) Schroder gets starter minutes (4th on the team in MPG), and is virtually always in the closing lineup.
2) One of Schroder or Richardson would supplant Okoro in the Cavs starting lineup.
3) Richardson should be a starter here.

This is how I see it.  In addition, if you trade Richardson now you can't use his contract in a trade this summer or next season and he will be valuable then as well. 

a pick around 20 (making it 2 picks in that range) or 2 2nd round picks is just not good value for both Richardson and Schroder.

You're missing the point, which is getting Rubio's Bird Rights.  He is the target in this entire trade. Sham just reported in the Athletic that teams are interested in Rubio's contract:

"The Cavaliers continue to discuss improving their backcourt, with rival teams showing interest in a package around Ricky Rubio’s expiring deal and draft picks."

You’re misinterpreting Shams.  Rubio’s deal being expiring means that teams know the Cavs can match a lot of salary without sending back a long-term contract.  It is not that teams are chomping at the bit to offer more than the mid-level to a guy in his 30s coming off an ACL who likely won’t be available for the start of the season.

Maybe, but Rubio has value to the Boston Celtics. We don't have a pass first point guard.  Our team stinks because we lack one.  He would be an awesome fit, and would likely re-sign with the Celtics if we offered him a starting position.  Cavs are weak at shooting guard position and need a back up PG this season. They are very motivated to get into the playoffs this season.  Schroder is a much better option for them this season than Rondo, who is pretty done.

Why are the Celtics offering a starting position to a 32 yo (next opening day) who's coming off an ACL?  Why aren't they offering him that via the MLE?  Almost no one has cap space next year.  Bird rights aren't needed by any team to sign Rubio.

I agree with the rest of what you say.  I think it's a homerun trade for the Cavs.  It's why I think the C's need better draft compensation.

Acquiring his Bird rights has two advantages.  First, it makes it slightly more likely he'd sign here, due to the slight increase in compensation we could give, both in terms of raises and annually.  Also, it would allow us to use the MLE on a second player.

Looking at the various options we have...

1.  Trade Schroder, trade JR
2.  Trade Schroder, keep JR
3.  Keep Schroder, keep JR
4.  Keep Schroder, trade JR

...  my guess is that our best bet in reality is to keep Richardson and to trade Schroder.  However, if we can end up in a situation where were get a 1st rounder and a useful player's Bird Rights by trading both, that's probably our best option.

Given our bounty of TPE's next offseason, I would say the value of retaining Rubio at a rate above the MLE and using the MLE on someone else is pretty low, because the hard cap will come into play, forcing the team to choose between TPE's and the MLE.  Additionally, the Fournier TPE could be used to sign Rubio for a deal above the MLE via a S&T if he did not wind up on Boston at the deadline.  In other words, if the Celtics actually want Rubio next summer, they'd have multiple angles with which to pursue him.

A sign-and-trade would hard cap us, correct?

With this proposed trade, we could do all of the following, if I'm not mistaken:

1.  Sign Rubio to a contract worth slightly more than the MLE;

2.  Use the Taxpayer MLE;

3.  Use the trade exception on anybody other than in a S&T;

4.  Avoid the hardcap.

[Celtics2021]

Not near enough value for both Schroder and Richardson.  Richardson and Hernangomez I'd do though.

Not near enough value? We'd get a first for 2 backup players. Imo, it's an easy yes for the C's. I bet the Cavs say no. First-round picks are valuable assets.

1) Schroder gets starter minutes (4th on the team in MPG), and is virtually always in the closing lineup.
2) One of Schroder or Richardson would supplant Okoro in the Cavs starting lineup.
3) Richardson should be a starter here.

This is how I see it.  In addition, if you trade Richardson now you can't use his contract in a trade this summer or next season and he will be valuable then as well. 

a pick around 20 (making it 2 picks in that range) or 2 2nd round picks is just not good value for both Richardson and Schroder.

You're missing the point, which is getting Rubio's Bird Rights.  He is the target in this entire trade. Sham just reported in the Athletic that teams are interested in Rubio's contract:

"The Cavaliers continue to discuss improving their backcourt, with rival teams showing interest in a package around Ricky Rubio’s expiring deal and draft picks."

You’re misinterpreting Shams.  Rubio’s deal being expiring means that teams know the Cavs can match a lot of salary without sending back a long-term contract.  It is not that teams are chomping at the bit to offer more than the mid-level to a guy in his 30s coming off an ACL who likely won’t be available for the start of the season.

Maybe, but Rubio has value to the Boston Celtics. We don't have a pass first point guard.  Our team stinks because we lack one.  He would be an awesome fit, and would likely re-sign with the Celtics if we offered him a starting position.  Cavs are weak at shooting guard position and need a back up PG this season. They are very motivated to get into the playoffs this season.  Schroder is a much better option for them this season than Rondo, who is pretty done.

Why are the Celtics offering a starting position to a 32 yo (next opening day) who's coming off an ACL?  Why aren't they offering him that via the MLE?  Almost no one has cap space next year.  Bird rights aren't needed by any team to sign Rubio.

I agree with the rest of what you say.  I think it's a homerun trade for the Cavs.  It's why I think the C's need better draft compensation.

Acquiring his Bird rights has two advantages.  First, it makes it slightly more likely he'd sign here, due to the slight increase in compensation we could give, both in terms of raises and annually.  Also, it would allow us to use the MLE on a second player.

Looking at the various options we have...

1.  Trade Schroder, trade JR
2.  Trade Schroder, keep JR
3.  Keep Schroder, keep JR
4.  Keep Schroder, trade JR

...  my guess is that our best bet in reality is to keep Richardson and to trade Schroder.  However, if we can end up in a situation where were get a 1st rounder and a useful player's Bird Rights by trading both, that's probably our best option.

Given our bounty of TPE's next offseason, I would say the value of retaining Rubio at a rate above the MLE and using the MLE on someone else is pretty low, because the hard cap will come into play, forcing the team to choose between TPE's and the MLE.  Additionally, the Fournier TPE could be used to sign Rubio for a deal above the MLE via a S&T if he did not wind up on Boston at the deadline.  In other words, if the Celtics actually want Rubio next summer, they'd have multiple angles with which to pursue him.

A sign-and-trade would hard cap us, correct?

With this proposed trade, we could do all of the following, if I'm not mistaken:

1.  Sign Rubio to a contract worth slightly more than the MLE;

2.  Use the Taxpayer MLE;

3.  Use the trade exception on anybody other than in a S&T;

4.  Avoid the hardcap.

Do you think the C's are actually going to spend that amount?  You're right, it technically could happen.  I think even getting a $12 million player with the Fournier TPE, letting the rest expire and also letting the Thompson TPE expire, would push the salaries too high in your scenario for it to be something the C's would legitimately pursue.

[Who]

Has Rubio ever had a good showing in the playoffs?

[Roy H.]

Has Rubio ever had a good showing in the playoffs?

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/r/rubiori01/gamelog-playoffs/

Decent scoring, good passing, a lot of steals and poor shooting.

[Celtics2021]

Has Rubio ever had a good showing in the playoffs?

In both of his playoff appearances, his PER and WS/48 were higher than they were in the same respective regular seasons.  He's had very limited playoff opportunities (as is true for most players drafted by Minnesota in the last 20 years), but there's nothing to say that he flops in the playoffs.

[Csfan1984]

Not a fan of Rubio. Rather keep Josh.