Why We Stink: The Numbers

[Roy H.]

Okay, "stink" is probably too harsh.  We're 11th in Net Rating in the NBA, so it's not like we're terrible.  And, our defense is 9th overall, so that's a plus.

But, these are the numbers that are scary:

3PT%:  24th
3PAs:  9th
TS%:  23rd
eFG%: 24th
2PT%: 20th
Assists:  24th

The one positive is that our team gets to the line quite a bit, relative to the rest of the league.  We rank 9th in attempts and 3rd in makes per 100 possessions.

But otherwise, it's an offensive dumpster fire.  We don't finish inside the 3PT line very well, which is probably in part due to not having volume scoring bigs and having wings that take too many long twos.  Of course, the importance of mid-range shots isn't all that important if a team can make its shots from behind the stripe.  That's where we really struggle, jacking up a bunch of shots but not making many.  To compound things, we don't get a lot of assists, partly because we miss a lot of shots and partly because we just don't have guys who know how to consistently run an NBA offense.

Some blame Ime, and maybe that's partially fair.  A lot of guys have fallen off significantly from last year's shooting, and maybe that's a system issue.  But ultimately, it comes down to personnel.  I don't know how you fix a team that is bad from inside and outside, and doesn't pass.

Is what we're lacking a dynamic PG?  A lot of folks criticized Danny for spending big on Kyrie and Kemba, but when healthy and focused those guys made the offense go.  They could penetrate and shoot from outside, which really opened things up for everybody.  Is that what has hurt, and is that why people are down on the Jays?  As great as Tatum and Brown are, they're finishers at this stage in their career.  Could it be that we need a guy exactly like Kyrie or Kemba, the type of guys who can finish *and* create?

I'm not sure.  I think we need two more above-average starters to be competitive.  We've seen a talent bleed, from having all-star PGs and one good season of Gordon Hayward to, essentially, nobody to replace those guys.  We simply don't have enough good players, particularly offensively.

[Jiri Welsch]

Good post Roy.

I think you‘re on to something when suggesting that our starting PG at the very least needs to be a competent shooter. IMO the lack of shooting directly leads to the Celtics’ “finishing games” problem. In the late 4th quarter, teams clamp down and clog the lane, while the officiating gets a bit looser to add to the late game drama.

This team needs a roster shakeup ASAP.

[Surferdad]

The influence of Dennis Shroder proves this theory to be correct, once again.

[W8ting2McHale]

This season’s success was predicated on the play of Tatum and Brown. Any significant time lost by either would trash this team.

I was expecting growth from both, plus the younger players, and a bit of help from the 3 veterans brought in. Of course none of that has happened, at least not consistently.

Tatum and Brown have both had signs of regression with the added expectations instead of progression. Langford and Nesmith are both active but have developed no offensive game except their shooting percentages are indeed offensive. Rob Williams and Pritchard show flashes but remain inconsistent, and the vets brought in to shoulder the load have underperformed too.

Shooting is indeed the major problem. Except for G-Will, everyone is shooting worse this year. How did that happen? Romeo looked better earlier too, but has since gone cold from outside and no better shooting at the rim. Tatum and Big Al have shot markedly worse than usual from outside.

The real kicker is that over the previous seasons; people would complain about chucking 3-pointers, but stats showed the Celtics where actually below league average for attempts and at league averages for makes. We were mid pack for free throws too.

This year we actually are higher than league average for shots taken behind the arc, which would be expected if they were falling, but they’re not. Why are we taking more 3 point attempts then previous years when we are shooting worse? It’s nice we’re getting to the line, but this offense is broken.

The coach can’t make the shots, but he does, or should, control the scheme. It’s not working. Maybe Tatum and Brown aren’t ready? No one else is stepping up either. Not Romeo, not Aaron, not Al. Schröder can drive, but not much else. Smart and J-Rich are pretty much what they are. G-Will and Rob hit the shots from their spots, but don’t provide much else.

A different point guard might help? I think more players moving would help more. There’s too much standing around watching in this offense. The biggest issue is shots not falling though. For anyone. It’s a make or miss league and most of our loses are because we simply miss too much.

[Sophomore]

This is all fair, but there is something the averages don’t capture. The Cs perform well below their averages in the 4th quarter, and have a terrible record in games decided by fewer than five points. Something causes them to fade when the game is on the line. The easy answer is that they just get tight and make bad decisions, and I think in this case the easy answer is correct. But what to do to change that is a lot harder.

[Roy H.]

This is all fair, but there is something the averages don’t capture. The Cs perform well below their averages in the 4th quarter, and have a terrible record in games decided by fewer than five points. Something causes them to fade when the game is on the line. The easy answer is that they just get tight and make bad decisions, and I think in this case the easy answer is correct. But what to do to change that is a lot harder.

Does an experienced, intelligent PG help there?

[ManchesterCelticsFan]

Okay, "stink" is probably too harsh.  We're 11th in Net Rating in the NBA, so it's not like we're terrible.  And, our defense is 9th overall, so that's a plus.

But, these are the numbers that are scary:

3PT%:  24th
3PAs:  9th
TS%:  23rd
eFG%: 24th
2PT%: 20th
Assists:  24th

The one positive is that our team gets to the line quite a bit, relative to the rest of the league.  We rank 9th in attempts and 3rd in makes per 100 possessions.

But otherwise, it's an offensive dumpster fire.  We don't finish inside the 3PT line very well, which is probably in part due to not having volume scoring bigs and having wings that take too many long twos.  Of course, the importance of mid-range shots isn't all that important if a team can make its shots from behind the stripe.  That's where we really struggle, jacking up a bunch of shots but not making many.  To compound things, we don't get a lot of assists, partly because we miss a lot of shots and partly because we just don't have guys who know how to consistently run an NBA offense.

Some blame Ime, and maybe that's partially fair.  A lot of guys have fallen off significantly from last year's shooting, and maybe that's a system issue.  But ultimately, it comes down to personnel.  I don't know how you fix a team that is bad from inside and outside, and doesn't pass.

Is what we're lacking a dynamic PG?  A lot of folks criticized Danny for spending big on Kyrie and Kemba, but when healthy and focused those guys made the offense go.  They could penetrate and shoot from outside, which really opened things up for everybody.  Is that what has hurt, and is that why people are down on the Jays?  As great as Tatum and Brown are, they're finishers at this stage in their career.  Could it be that we need a guy exactly like Kyrie or Kemba, the type of guys who can finish *and* create?

I'm not sure.  I think we need two more above-average starters to be competitive.  We've seen a talent bleed, from having all-star PGs and one good season of Gordon Hayward to, essentially, nobody to replace those guys.  We simply don't have enough good players, particularly offensively.

Excellent post! The Celtics miss 2017 Isaiah Thomas,  Kyrie Irving or Kemba Walker elite PG quarterbacking, controlling the offense, tempo, getting the team high quality, efficient shots. Ainge as a former PG understood this very well. [dang] those stats highlight the fact that the Celtics offense is dumb, undisciplined and sucks. I bet a PG like that makes a coach's job way more fun.

[Moranis]

I don't actually think a Walker/Irving type PG is the right fit.  Those guys are not good fits next to Tatum.  They are too ball dominant.  A PG more in the style of Paul, Conley or a lesser talent like Rubio, would make way more sense from a fit perspective.  The C's need a distributor from the PG position.  They haven't had one of those since Rondo.  I think that would help immensely.  They also need a real legit PF so that Tatum can play more at his best position i.e. SF. 

[wdleehi]

It is worth trying.   Of course who is  available at the moment or at trade deadline?   


I still think a true 3 point shooter would help more.   Of course who is available at the moment or at trade deadline?

[Vermont Green]

The Celtics are clearly underperforming, at least relative to my expectations for them.  I don't think the answer is as simple as adding a traditional PG.  Or maybe this is more of a scoring first PG, the chatter seems to vary on this.  At any rate, the PGs from the top teams are as follows:

   Curry
   Paul
   Conley
   Harden (but hasn't played much)
   Ball

I will stop at 5 but if you go to 10, there is probably even less clear correlation that would be evidence that PG is a key role.  All these teams also have at least 1 really good big (I am counting Durant although the Nets are an outlier in several regards).  The same is the case for the next 5 teams, most have a big as their best or one of their best players.

To me, the offensive struggles are clear, and the struggles become more pronounced in the 4th quarter.  Here is my order of things:

   Coaching:  No system, players stand around, makes it easy for defenses in set offenses
   Lack of Big:  We don't have a big who is a scoring threat at all.  The other team's "rim protector" can focus solely on rim protecting
   Scoring PG:  I feel that between Smart, Schroder, and Pritchard, we have that position covered well enough.

Of course if we had a better PG it would be better but the problem is not lack of someone dribbling around looking for his shot.  We get plenty of that from Tatum and Brown.  And we don't need another player standing around watching although the more shot makers you have the better.

I don't know if Ime has a system and players just aren't listening, or if he is just bad at teaching his system, or if he doesn't have a system but to me, this is where you start.  Don't begin breaking up the team to bring in different talent when there isn't a system.

And if we do start shipping out assets, do it for a big, not a PG.

[nickagneta]

I think it's the system and the players in it.

The system sucks. It's even worse than Brad's egalitarian system that morphed into a weird iso ball/three man weave system during Kyrie's tenure and beyond that inexplicably put the team's best players sitting in corners acting as decoys, while others of much lesser talent ran pick n roll and three man weaves.

Udoka's system has different ball movement but still tons of isos. The off ball movement either goes directly through the ball handlers direct path to the basket, clogging the lane, or is a simple run around an outside screen to receive a hand off pass with very little other off ball movement. It appears that the few pick n rolls they do are predicated upon the desired result being a Timelord alley oop.

There is no pick n pop. There is next to no off ball movement around screens along the baseline to open shots. There is way too much standing around acting as decoys. And there is zero interaction between the team's two best players in the half court whatsoever.

Also, why does this team play at such a slow pace? Where are the fast break points? Why with such young legs is this team not getting up court and into their offense before the defense can set? Why does this team not pass forward to advance the ball and simply relies on a main ball handler to slow jog the ball into the half court offense that clearly isn't working?

Fix these issues. It's easy for me to see the system sucks and isn't doing itself any favors with poor talent around the Jays. My word, get better surrounding talent around the Jays. Get a stretch 4 or 5 that can actually hit threes. Get one SG and one PG that can consistently hit threes. Get a veteran, playoff hardened PG to run this offense.

And then if Grant and Smart are still here, get Grant Williams 4-6 threes a game and limit Smart to 1-2 threes per game. Heck, limit Smart to 3-4 shots per game, his historically terrible shot selection and shot making has to be completely phased out of this offense if he is retained, which I don't think he will be.

My solution would be to bring in Mike D'Antoni in an offensive coordinator type role as assistant head coach. Have Brad do his best to get the aforementioned talent. And, by gosh, keep the Jays and get players around them that make them better. They are still only 23 and 25. They are still 4 and 2 years away from entering their primes.

If a basketball idiot like me can see these things, then the guys running this team have to see it too. Make the changes because offensively, as Roy said, we stink.

[Surferdad]

It is worth trying.   Of course who is  available at the moment or at trade deadline?   


I still think a true 3 point shooter would help more.   Of course who is available at the moment or at trade deadline?

A PG more in the style of Paul, Conley or a lesser talent like Rubio, would make way more sense from a fit perspective.

Agreed.  Rubio is injured now (torn ACL) but I would even entertain acquiring him for next season.  Trade Schroder and Josh for him.

[Somebody]

I think it's the system and the players in it.

The system sucks. It's even worse than Brad's egalitarian system that morphed into a weird iso ball/three man weave system during Kyrie's tenure and beyond that inexplicably put the team's best players sitting in corners acting as decoys, while others of much lesser talent ran pick n roll and three man weaves.

Udoka's system has different ball movement but still tons of isos. The off ball movement either goes directly through the ball handlers direct path to the basket, clogging the lane, or is a simple run around an outside screen to receive a hand off pass with very little other off ball movement. It appears that the few pick n rolls they do are predicated upon the desired result being a Timelord alley oop.

There is no pick n pop. There is next to no off ball movement around screens along the baseline to open shots. There is way too much standing around acting as decoys. And there is zero interaction between the team's two best players in the half court whatsoever.

Also, why does this team play at such a slow pace? Where are the fast break points? Why with such young legs is this team not getting up court and into their offense before the defense can set? Why does this team not pass forward to advance the ball and simply relies on a main ball handler to slow jog the ball into the half court offense that clearly isn't working?

Fix these issues. It's easy for me to see the system sucks and isn't doing itself any favors with poor talent around the Jays. My word, get better surrounding talent around the Jays. Get a stretch 4 or 5 that can actually hit threes. Get one SG and one PG that can consistently hit threes. Get a veteran, playoff hardened PG to run this offense.

And then if Grant and Smart are still here, get Grant Williams 4-6 threes a game and limit Smart to 1-2 threes per game. Heck, limit Smart to 3-4 shots per game, his historically terrible shot selection and shot making has to be completely phased out of this offense if he is retained, which I don't think he will be.

My solution would be to bring in Mike D'Antoni in an offensive coordinator type role as assistant head coach. Have Brad do his best to get the aforementioned talent. And, by gosh, keep the Jays and get players around them that make them better. They are still only 23 and 25. They are still 4 and 2 years away from entering their primes.

If a basketball idiot like me can see these things, then the guys running this team have to see it too. Make the changes because offensively, as Roy said, we stink.

It's one thing to be an assistant to Steve Nash, it's a completely different thing to be an assistant to the likes of Ime Udoka. I would simply hire MDA to be our next head coach and bring in better iterations of Ime to keep the dressing room happy while giving the team some defensive solidity.

[Goldstar88]

I think it's the system and the players in it.

The system sucks. It's even worse than Brad's egalitarian system that morphed into a weird iso ball/three man weave system during Kyrie's tenure and beyond that inexplicably put the team's best players sitting in corners acting as decoys, while others of much lesser talent ran pick n roll and three man weaves.

Udoka's system has different ball movement but still tons of isos. The off ball movement either goes directly through the ball handlers direct path to the basket, clogging the lane, or is a simple run around an outside screen to receive a hand off pass with very little other off ball movement. It appears that the few pick n rolls they do are predicated upon the desired result being a Timelord alley oop.

There is no pick n pop. There is next to no off ball movement around screens along the baseline to open shots. There is way too much standing around acting as decoys. And there is zero interaction between the team's two best players in the half court whatsoever.

Also, why does this team play at such a slow pace? Where are the fast break points? Why with such young legs is this team not getting up court and into their offense before the defense can set? Why does this team not pass forward to advance the ball and simply relies on a main ball handler to slow jog the ball into the half court offense that clearly isn't working?

Fix these issues. It's easy for me to see the system sucks and isn't doing itself any favors with poor talent around the Jays. My word, get better surrounding talent around the Jays. Get a stretch 4 or 5 that can actually hit threes. Get one SG and one PG that can consistently hit threes. Get a veteran, playoff hardened PG to run this offense.

And then if Grant and Smart are still here, get Grant Williams 4-6 threes a game and limit Smart to 1-2 threes per game. Heck, limit Smart to 3-4 shots per game, his historically terrible shot selection and shot making has to be completely phased out of this offense if he is retained, which I don't think he will be.

My solution would be to bring in Mike D'Antoni in an offensive coordinator type role as assistant head coach. Have Brad do his best to get the aforementioned talent. And, by gosh, keep the Jays and get players around them that make them better. They are still only 23 and 25. They are still 4 and 2 years away from entering their primes.

If a basketball idiot like me can see these things, then the guys running this team have to see it too. Make the changes because offensively, as Roy said, we stink.

Udoka doesn’t know how to run an offense and I think it’s effecting the players confidence on that end of the court. How can you play confidently when your coach has a terrible game plan. I 100% agree on D’Antoni and wanted him in Boston as soon as it was announced that Brad would not be the coach. He had a .68% winning percentage in Houston over 4 years. I still don’t understand how the owners and Brad thought it would be a good idea to add someone who has never been a head coach at any level to a team that has been in the playoffs several years in a row. If the C’s were going through a rebuild, I would have been fine with the Udoka hiring, but Maybe they should just hire the person who gives the team the best chance to win next time?


Also, sounds like Mike would be interested in being a head coach again, too.

Ex-Houston Rockets head coach Mike D’Antoni spoke this week with Jonathan Feigen of the Houston Chronicle. D’Antoni, who is working this season as an adviser for the New Orleans Pelicans and their head coach Willie Green, revealed that he would not rule out a return to coaching.

“Willie’s been great to work with,” D’Antoni said. “We talk and it’s great having a dialogue. He’s doing a phenomenal job. I enjoy it for right now. I try to add what I can. It’s all good. We’ll see [about next season]. I’m not ruling it out. Too young [at 70 years old] to rule anything out.”

[nickagneta]

I think it's the system and the players in it.

The system sucks. It's even worse than Brad's egalitarian system that morphed into a weird iso ball/three man weave system during Kyrie's tenure and beyond that inexplicably put the team's best players sitting in corners acting as decoys, while others of much lesser talent ran pick n roll and three man weaves.

Udoka's system has different ball movement but still tons of isos. The off ball movement either goes directly through the ball handlers direct path to the basket, clogging the lane, or is a simple run around an outside screen to receive a hand off pass with very little other off ball movement. It appears that the few pick n rolls they do are predicated upon the desired result being a Timelord alley oop.

There is no pick n pop. There is next to no off ball movement around screens along the baseline to open shots. There is way too much standing around acting as decoys. And there is zero interaction between the team's two best players in the half court whatsoever.

Also, why does this team play at such a slow pace? Where are the fast break points? Why with such young legs is this team not getting up court and into their offense before the defense can set? Why does this team not pass forward to advance the ball and simply relies on a main ball handler to slow jog the ball into the half court offense that clearly isn't working?

Fix these issues. It's easy for me to see the system sucks and isn't doing itself any favors with poor talent around the Jays. My word, get better surrounding talent around the Jays. Get a stretch 4 or 5 that can actually hit threes. Get one SG and one PG that can consistently hit threes. Get a veteran, playoff hardened PG to run this offense.

And then if Grant and Smart are still here, get Grant Williams 4-6 threes a game and limit Smart to 1-2 threes per game. Heck, limit Smart to 3-4 shots per game, his historically terrible shot selection and shot making has to be completely phased out of this offense if he is retained, which I don't think he will be.

My solution would be to bring in Mike D'Antoni in an offensive coordinator type role as assistant head coach. Have Brad do his best to get the aforementioned talent. And, by gosh, keep the Jays and get players around them that make them better. They are still only 23 and 25. They are still 4 and 2 years away from entering their primes.

If a basketball idiot like me can see these things, then the guys running this team have to see it too. Make the changes because offensively, as Roy said, we stink.

It's one thing to be an assistant to Steve Nash, it's a completely different thing to be an assistant to the likes of Ime Udoka. I would simply hire MDA to be our next head coach and bring in better iterations of Ime to keep the dressing room happy while giving the team some defensive solidity.

I thought D'Antoni was "advising" Willie Green in New Orleans. If he is willing to do that to a worse head coaching prospect than Udoka for a trash franchise like the Pelicans, I have to believe taking on a 2nd in charge coaching position to a much better head coaching prospect for an elite franchise like Boston could entice him.

But perhaps just hiring him is the right decision. Either way, I think his system would benefit this offense greatly.