What’s Changed For Tatum?

[nickagneta]

Have we ever seen a star scorer under the age of 25 have this precipitous of a drop-off in terms of scoring efficiency without a major injury?

Lots of stars are done this year, not just the young ones.  Giannis is shooting more and scoring less.  Harden is way down.  Curry is down. Embiid is way down.  Trae Young has almost the same ppg, but he is taking 2.6 more shots a game to do it. Even more fringe stars like Michael Porter, Jr. have taken huge hits to start the year.

And here we have Jaylen Brown going up.

[showtime]

I think he’s listening to his critics and trying to become more of a playmaker, penetrator, and an elite overall superstar.  He’s thinking too much rather than letting the game come to him.

And I think you're right!

[18isGREATERthan72]

I'm surprised nobody has mentioned the way the game is being officiated this season versus last season.

It's not that players in the past haven't had to deal with this sort of defense, but going from the cake walk for scorers it has been the past 5 years to this season is a sudden jolt, and I would wager is the reason for a lot of the slow starts for players.

[droopdog7]

I'm surprised nobody has mentioned the way the game is being officiated this season versus last season.

It's not that players in the past haven't had to deal with this sort of defense, but going from the cake walk for scorers it has been the past 5 years to this season is a sudden jolt, and I would wager is the reason for a lot of the slow starts for players.

For some players, definitely.  But for Tatum (and brown for that matter), the new rules should have virtually zero impact.

[Moranis]

Have we ever seen a star scorer under the age of 25 have this precipitous of a drop-off in terms of scoring efficiency without a major injury?

Lots of stars are done this year, not just the young ones.  Giannis is shooting more and scoring less.  Harden is way down.  Curry is down. Embiid is way down.  Trae Young has almost the same ppg, but he is taking 2.6 more shots a game to do it. Even more fringe stars like Michael Porter, Jr. have taken huge hits to start the year.

And here we have Jaylen Brown going up.

Yep.  up slightly mostly because he is getting to the line more, which is definitely not the trend.

[Somebody]

Have we ever seen a star scorer under the age of 25 have this precipitous of a drop-off in terms of scoring efficiency without a major injury?

Lots of stars are done this year, not just the young ones.  Giannis is shooting more and scoring less.  Harden is way down.  Curry is down. Embiid is way down.  Trae Young has almost the same ppg, but he is taking 2.6 more shots a game to do it. Even more fringe stars like Michael Porter, Jr. have taken huge hits to start the year.

And here we have Jaylen Brown going up.

Just simply a fantastic player.

[LilRip]

I'm surprised nobody has mentioned the way the game is being officiated this season versus last season.

It's not that players in the past haven't had to deal with this sort of defense, but going from the cake walk for scorers it has been the past 5 years to this season is a sudden jolt, and I would wager is the reason for a lot of the slow starts for players.

For some players, definitely.  But for Tatum (and brown for that matter), the new rules should have virtually zero impact.

Strange take. How do you figure?

The old rules really demanded foot speed and length to be a decent defender. And I suspect this is why 3 point shooting was skyrocketing because offensive players could create a lot more space because defenders had to give them a cushion.

The new rules give more chance to slower players plus give a little edge to strong players. The Ron Artest style of defending would have likely been a foul fest during last year’s freedom of movement-style officiating, but it would be very effective this year. I think this plays a part why Horford has looked so good for the most part. And when Lebron gets motivated? Watch out too.

On the flip side, if Kyrie was playing today, I think he’d struggle with these new rules even if he wasn’t the type of guy to draw a ton of contact in his drives. And it’s because his defenders can play more physical, instead of having to avoid the offensive player. So less space for his jump shots and more physical bumps during drives.

[droopdog7]

I'm surprised nobody has mentioned the way the game is being officiated this season versus last season.

It's not that players in the past haven't had to deal with this sort of defense, but going from the cake walk for scorers it has been the past 5 years to this season is a sudden jolt, and I would wager is the reason for a lot of the slow starts for players.

For some players, definitely.  But for Tatum (and brown for that matter), the new rules should have virtually zero impact.

Strange take. How do you figure?

The old rules really demanded foot speed and length to be a decent defender. And I suspect this is why 3 point shooting was skyrocketing because offensive players could create a lot more space because defenders had to give them a cushion.

The new rules give more chance to slower players plus give a little edge to strong players. The Ron Artest style of defending would have likely been a foul fest during last year’s freedom of movement-style officiating, but it would be very effective this year. I think this plays a part why Horford has looked so good for the most part. And when Lebron gets motivated? Watch out too.

On the flip side, if Kyrie was playing today, I think he’d struggle with these new rules even if he wasn’t the type of guy to draw a ton of contact in his drives. And it’s because his defenders can play more physical, instead of having to avoid the offensive player. So less space for his jump shots and more physical bumps during drives.

I guess I don’t know the new rules you talking about.  The only thing I’m aware of is not allowing unnatural movements to draw fouls (a la trae young and harden).  And brown and Tatum never did those things.  I guess I missed something if there is more.

[keevsnick]

Have we ever seen a star scorer under the age of 25 have this precipitous of a drop-off in terms of scoring efficiency without a major injury?

Lots of stars are done this year, not just the young ones.  Giannis is shooting more and scoring less.  Harden is way down.  Curry is down. Embiid is way down.  Trae Young has almost the same ppg, but he is taking 2.6 more shots a game to do it. Even more fringe stars like Michael Porter, Jr. have taken huge hits to start the year.

And here we have Jaylen Brown going up.

Yep.  up slightly mostly because he is getting to the line more, which is definitely not the trend.

Ya we'll have to see if that holds up when he comes back. His FTA rate is way up over last year (.27 vs .225) despite the fact league average has fallen from .247 to .221 this year. However, last years was somewhat of an aberration for him. The previous two years he was at .274 and .255 FTA rate. Of course we know he he dealt with the knee issue last year, maybe that limited his explosiveness. We'll see if the hamstring injury does the same this year, or if he comes back and maintains the FTA rate.

As for Tatum, I think its just a shooting slump. He may not return to shooting like 45% on step back threes like he did last year, in part because shooting in general is down this year. But he should get a lot better by years end. He starts cold a lot of years and heats up in January/February.

[keevsnick]

Have we ever seen a star scorer under the age of 25 have this precipitous of a drop-off in terms of scoring efficiency without a major injury?

Paul Pierce immediately springs to mind. Averaged 26PPG on 45/40/78 over two seasons before dropping to 24PPG on 41/30/81 shooting over the next two. The massive drop in 3 point shooting over a prolonged period of time was really odd. 2 seasons compared to not even 2 months for Tatum. PP was 25 when the drop happened though.

Just to back that up his TS% dropped from 57% in his 4th to 53.2% in his fifth to 51.7% in his sixth year before rebounding to 58.3% in his seventh year.

Gordon Hayward had a weird 4th year. His TS% dropped from 56.4% to 52.0% largely because he shot terribly from three at only 30% that year.

Its not unheard of for even elite shooters to have a season or two 3-ish points below their career averages from three.  That's even happened to Kevin Durant a couple times. Its just natural statistical noise. But a full year below 32% for a guy who before this was a 39% career three point shooter would be unheard of I think. he will shoot better.

[Ed Monix]

Via @Boston Sports Info

Jayson Tatum

Continuing his trend of avg shot distance increasing every year

2022- 15.1'
2021- 14.6'
2020- 14.4'
2019- 13.6'
2018- 12.7'

AND

% of shots at the hoop (0-3') decreasing every year

2022- 17.7%
2021- 19.7%
2020- 24.8%
2019- 26.1%
2018- 32.0%

need the reverse

[tstorey_97]

I frankly, like his game now. When he has the ball his head is up and he's looking to make a play..........Jeez, let's put a stop to this team stuff and get him back to iso after iso.

Great players adapt...he's adapting just fine.

[18isGREATERthan72]

I'm surprised nobody has mentioned the way the game is being officiated this season versus last season.

It's not that players in the past haven't had to deal with this sort of defense, but going from the cake walk for scorers it has been the past 5 years to this season is a sudden jolt, and I would wager is the reason for a lot of the slow starts for players.

For some players, definitely.  But for Tatum (and brown for that matter), the new rules should have virtually zero impact.

Strange take. How do you figure?

The old rules really demanded foot speed and length to be a decent defender. And I suspect this is why 3 point shooting was skyrocketing because offensive players could create a lot more space because defenders had to give them a cushion.

The new rules give more chance to slower players plus give a little edge to strong players. The Ron Artest style of defending would have likely been a foul fest during last year’s freedom of movement-style officiating, but it would be very effective this year. I think this plays a part why Horford has looked so good for the most part. And when Lebron gets motivated? Watch out too.

On the flip side, if Kyrie was playing today, I think he’d struggle with these new rules even if he wasn’t the type of guy to draw a ton of contact in his drives. And it’s because his defenders can play more physical, instead of having to avoid the offensive player. So less space for his jump shots and more physical bumps during drives.

I guess I don’t know the new rules you talking about.  The only thing I’m aware of is not allowing unnatural movements to draw fouls (a la trae young and harden).  And brown and Tatum never did those things.  I guess I missed something if there is more.

This was what they came out and said they were going to cut down on, but just visually by the eye test, the referees are allowing far more contact across the board for defenders than years past.  This feels almost like late 2000's type defense, so it feels like they're allowing quite a bit more contact than the past five seasons.  Tatum has never played under those conditions on the professional level.

I've actually been pretty convinced this is the reason for his lower production this season.

[Big333223]

I'm at least heartened by Tatum seemingly being a guy who elevates his game when the lights are the brightest. National TV game against the Lakers? Puts up his best game of the season.

Hopefully this is the start of him finding his rhythm and Jaylen can come back and the C's will start streaking.