Two Bad Drafts: 2016 and 2019

[nickagneta]

To me, the book is still out on 2019 and we need to let it play out some more after the Covid nuttiness that has been the 1st couple years of those players' careers.

Regarding 2016, can any draft be considered bad if you land a soon to be multi time All-Star and All-NBA player, because that is what Brown will be?

Regarding 2019, we’re talking Romeo, Williams and Edwards.  Edwards is already gone, and I’ll be surprised if Williams gets his option picked up.  Romeo, at best, has shown nothing due to injuries, which were a knock on him when he was drafted.  Even if Romeo pans out, trading down and missing on good players while doing so is an issue.

And, I think when a team has five picks in the top 35, they’re open to criticism, even if one pick pans out.  Danny squandered assets.

You may be 100% right on 2019, but Romeo still could develop making it a good draft. His injuries and the craziness of the 2020 and 2021 seasons to me signals perhaps more time needs to be given to players in that draft and last year's draft before determining they are busts, and hence, bad picks.

Again, you may be right, I just think your opinion is premature at the moment. Let's let it play out more before labeling the Covid drafts busts.

[greg683x]

To me it’s a lesson on what can happen if you acquire way too many picks and assets with no real exit strategy.  Danny spent a lot of time waiting for the PERFECT deal to come a long until finally the music started to stop and there wasn’t enough chairs for everyone to sit down in.

To be fair to Danny though, the perfect deal did come along and he got royally screwed by Kyrie and Anthony Davis/Rich Paul.  Things could be completely different

[Moranis]

The big what if in 2016 for me was what if Ainge would have made the trade with the Sixers.

It was widely reported that the Sixers offered Covington, Noel, 24, and 26 for 3.  The Sixers were going to take Dunn at 3. 

So that would have left Boston with 16, 23, 24, and 26.  Would that have been enough to move back up to 8?  Remember Sacramento traded 8 for 13, 28, a future 2nd (ended up being #35 Tillman in 2020), and Bogdan Bogdanovic.  They took Papagiannis at 13 and Labissere at 28.  I suspect Sacramento would have still been able to get Papagiannis at 16 and certainly could have still landed Labissere with one of the other picks in the 20's, so would the extra 1st rounder (or maybe 2) made up for Bogdanovic.  Quite possibly.

And why would Boston want to get that 8th pick, because there would have been a pretty decent chance that Jaylen Brown would still be there at 8 (Denver at 7 is really the only other logical landing point).  Now maybe if that is the case, Sacramento doesn't make the trade (because they want Brown) and or maybe Brown isn't there (going to Denver at 7), but it would be possible and even if not, maybe Boston takes whomever in the top 8 fell or takes someone like Poeltl or Sabonis. 

The other side of that trade is that the more established players in Covington and Noel could have also convinced Durant that Boston was a real contender (along with Horford) and maybe he comes to Boston rather than taking the easy path in Golden State.  So the team would have basically started IT, Bradley, Durant, Horford, and Noel with Rozier, Smart, Crowder, Covington, Olynyk, Johnson, and Jerekbo in the rotation without accounting for any of the draft picks.  That is a real title threat, and I don't think that is necessarily the case with the unknown Brown as opposed to Noel/Covington

You are clearly a very knowledgeable basketball mind and I enjoy your knowledge of history but it's posts like these that drive me away from your opinion...

Often it's an argument but this time just a critique, but your post is filled with so many ifs and maybes that it's hard to take seriously. This critique of Ainge you present is just a mazy rabbit hole... all one can do is shrug their shoulders and say "maybe?"

I didn't critique Ainge at all.  I said that was a what if on that draft.  What if he trades 3 for Covington, Noel, 24, and 26.  At the time I would have done that, but knowing what Brown became it is hard to say that it was a bad move to not draft Brown.  Of course if you do make that trade, then you basically have to make a follow-up move because there is no point in keeping 16, 23, 24, and 26 from the same draft (along with 31, 35, and 45).  He would have needed to do some form of consolidation. Getting back up to 8 (which was actually traded) would have been the dream, but there were other moves that could have been made.

[mqtcelticsfan]

The one thing I don’t think there’s a specific lesson to be learned from is Romeo. I don’t see how Romeo was anything other than a possible scouting miss. It seemed clear that Clarke would have been a better immediate fit and filled a greater need. I just think the FO felt Romeo was a better prospect.

[slamtheking]

To me it’s a lesson on what can happen if you acquire way too many picks and assets with no real exit strategy.  Danny spent a lot of time waiting for the PERFECT deal to come a long until finally the music started to stop and there wasn’t enough chairs for everyone to sit down in.

To be fair to Danny though, the perfect deal did come along and he got royally screwed by Kyrie and Anthony Davis/Rich Paul.  Things could be completely different

I think this is key.  Kyrie doesn't pull a mutiny and AD's advisor's don't pump his head full of anti-Celtic nonsense, we're looking at a multi-year contending roster for the C's.  that was pretty obviously his plan and it was a pretty good plan in a vacuum.  problem is, real life foolishness crapped on the plan and he wasn't able to implement a solid plan B

[Moranis]

To me it’s a lesson on what can happen if you acquire way too many picks and assets with no real exit strategy.  Danny spent a lot of time waiting for the PERFECT deal to come a long until finally the music started to stop and there wasn’t enough chairs for everyone to sit down in.

To be fair to Danny though, the perfect deal did come along and he got royally screwed by Kyrie and Anthony Davis/Rich Paul.  Things could be completely different

I think this is key.  Kyrie doesn't pull a mutiny and AD's advisor's don't pump his head full of anti-Celtic nonsense, we're looking at a multi-year contending roster for the C's.  that was pretty obviously his plan and it was a pretty good plan in a vacuum.  problem is, real life foolishness crapped on the plan and he wasn't able to implement a solid plan B

He should have acquired Leonard.  That was the thing I think I fault him most for.  If he wasn't willing to go all in, then he shouldn't have acquired Irving in the first place.

[slamtheking]

To me it’s a lesson on what can happen if you acquire way too many picks and assets with no real exit strategy.  Danny spent a lot of time waiting for the PERFECT deal to come a long until finally the music started to stop and there wasn’t enough chairs for everyone to sit down in.

To be fair to Danny though, the perfect deal did come along and he got royally screwed by Kyrie and Anthony Davis/Rich Paul.  Things could be completely different

I think this is key.  Kyrie doesn't pull a mutiny and AD's advisor's don't pump his head full of anti-Celtic nonsense, we're looking at a multi-year contending roster for the C's.  that was pretty obviously his plan and it was a pretty good plan in a vacuum.  problem is, real life foolishness crapped on the plan and he wasn't able to implement a solid plan B

He should have acquired Leonard.  That was the thing I think I fault him most for.  If he wasn't willing to go all in, then he shouldn't have acquired Irving in the first place.

you're making the assumption that acquiring Leonard was possible without gutting the teams assets or at all.

[Celtics4ever]

2019 so far has been a stinker.

[greg683x]

To me it’s a lesson on what can happen if you acquire way too many picks and assets with no real exit strategy.  Danny spent a lot of time waiting for the PERFECT deal to come a long until finally the music started to stop and there wasn’t enough chairs for everyone to sit down in.

To be fair to Danny though, the perfect deal did come along and he got royally screwed by Kyrie and Anthony Davis/Rich Paul.  Things could be completely different

I think this is key.  Kyrie doesn't pull a mutiny and AD's advisor's don't pump his head full of anti-Celtic nonsense, we're looking at a multi-year contending roster for the C's.  that was pretty obviously his plan and it was a pretty good plan in a vacuum.  problem is, real life foolishness crapped on the plan and he wasn't able to implement a solid plan B

He should have acquired Leonard.  That was the thing I think I fault him most for.  If he wasn't willing to go all in, then he shouldn't have acquired Irving in the first place.

you're making the assumption that acquiring Leonard was possible without gutting the teams assets or at all.

The Spurs wanted Jaylen Brown from what I remember.





 

[Celtics2021]

To me it’s a lesson on what can happen if you acquire way too many picks and assets with no real exit strategy.  Danny spent a lot of time waiting for the PERFECT deal to come a long until finally the music started to stop and there wasn’t enough chairs for everyone to sit down in.

To be fair to Danny though, the perfect deal did come along and he got royally screwed by Kyrie and Anthony Davis/Rich Paul.  Things could be completely different

I think this is key.  Kyrie doesn't pull a mutiny and AD's advisor's don't pump his head full of anti-Celtic nonsense, we're looking at a multi-year contending roster for the C's.  that was pretty obviously his plan and it was a pretty good plan in a vacuum.  problem is, real life foolishness crapped on the plan and he wasn't able to implement a solid plan B

He should have acquired Leonard.  That was the thing I think I fault him most for.  If he wasn't willing to go all in, then he shouldn't have acquired Irving in the first place.

you're making the assumption that acquiring Leonard was possible without gutting the teams assets or at all.

The Spurs wanted Jaylen Brown from what I remember.

That was my recollection as well.

[Moranis]

To me it’s a lesson on what can happen if you acquire way too many picks and assets with no real exit strategy.  Danny spent a lot of time waiting for the PERFECT deal to come a long until finally the music started to stop and there wasn’t enough chairs for everyone to sit down in.

To be fair to Danny though, the perfect deal did come along and he got royally screwed by Kyrie and Anthony Davis/Rich Paul.  Things could be completely different

I think this is key.  Kyrie doesn't pull a mutiny and AD's advisor's don't pump his head full of anti-Celtic nonsense, we're looking at a multi-year contending roster for the C's.  that was pretty obviously his plan and it was a pretty good plan in a vacuum.  problem is, real life foolishness crapped on the plan and he wasn't able to implement a solid plan B

He should have acquired Leonard.  That was the thing I think I fault him most for.  If he wasn't willing to go all in, then he shouldn't have acquired Irving in the first place.

you're making the assumption that acquiring Leonard was possible without gutting the teams assets or at all.

The Spurs wanted Jaylen Brown from what I remember.

That was my recollection as well.

Yes, and they should have made that trade because a team with a top 5 of Kawhi, Kyrie, Tatum, Hayward, and Horford (not to mention solid depth like Rozier, Morris, Baynes, and maybe Smart), in retrospect would have won the title that season, and that might have significantly altered that off season (to be clear I was advocating for the trade when it was rumored).  Perhaps Kawhi and Kyrie love playing together and re-sign.  Maybe just doing the trade itself changes the perception of Boston around the league. 

Ainge never should have acquired Irving if he wasn't willing to go all in around him.  That is his biggest failure.  You don't waste assets to acquire a secondary star if you have no intention of acquiring the primary star when he becomes available.  Leonard was there for the taking and the Celtics let him slip by and lost out on winning a championship in the process. 

[td450]

To me it’s a lesson on what can happen if you acquire way too many picks and assets with no real exit strategy.  Danny spent a lot of time waiting for the PERFECT deal to come a long until finally the music started to stop and there wasn’t enough chairs for everyone to sit down in.

To be fair to Danny though, the perfect deal did come along and he got royally screwed by Kyrie and Anthony Davis/Rich Paul.  Things could be completely different

I think this is key.  Kyrie doesn't pull a mutiny and AD's advisor's don't pump his head full of anti-Celtic nonsense, we're looking at a multi-year contending roster for the C's.  that was pretty obviously his plan and it was a pretty good plan in a vacuum.  problem is, real life foolishness crapped on the plan and he wasn't able to implement a solid plan B

He should have acquired Leonard.  That was the thing I think I fault him most for.  If he wasn't willing to go all in, then he shouldn't have acquired Irving in the first place.

you're making the assumption that acquiring Leonard was possible without gutting the teams assets or at all.

The Spurs wanted Jaylen Brown from what I remember.

That was my recollection as well.

Yes, and they should have made that trade because a team with a top 5 of Kawhi, Kyrie, Tatum, Hayward, and Horford (not to mention solid depth like Rozier, Morris, Baynes, and maybe Smart), in retrospect would have won the title that season, and that might have significantly altered that off season (to be clear I was advocating for the trade when it was rumored).  Perhaps Kawhi and Kyrie love playing together and re-sign.  Maybe just doing the trade itself changes the perception of Boston around the league. 

Ainge never should have acquired Irving if he wasn't willing to go all in around him.  That is his biggest failure.  You don't waste assets to acquire a secondary star if you have no intention of acquiring the primary star when he becomes available.  Leonard was there for the taking and the Celtics let him slip by and lost out on winning a championship in the process.

Could the C's have traded Kyrie at the end of the 2017/18 season for more than the #8 and Crowder? Probably. That would have justified the Kyrie trade. Building around him was never a good idea.

I will admit that if we had gotten SGA instead, we'd be in a whole different place. Even drafting Miles Bridges would have worked out better.

It is also worth considering that as ugly as the IT situation ended up, can you imagine the C's not making the trade, really walking away from him and just moving on?

[Moranis]

To me it’s a lesson on what can happen if you acquire way too many picks and assets with no real exit strategy.  Danny spent a lot of time waiting for the PERFECT deal to come a long until finally the music started to stop and there wasn’t enough chairs for everyone to sit down in.

To be fair to Danny though, the perfect deal did come along and he got royally screwed by Kyrie and Anthony Davis/Rich Paul.  Things could be completely different

I think this is key.  Kyrie doesn't pull a mutiny and AD's advisor's don't pump his head full of anti-Celtic nonsense, we're looking at a multi-year contending roster for the C's.  that was pretty obviously his plan and it was a pretty good plan in a vacuum.  problem is, real life foolishness crapped on the plan and he wasn't able to implement a solid plan B

He should have acquired Leonard.  That was the thing I think I fault him most for.  If he wasn't willing to go all in, then he shouldn't have acquired Irving in the first place.

you're making the assumption that acquiring Leonard was possible without gutting the teams assets or at all.

The Spurs wanted Jaylen Brown from what I remember.

That was my recollection as well.

Yes, and they should have made that trade because a team with a top 5 of Kawhi, Kyrie, Tatum, Hayward, and Horford (not to mention solid depth like Rozier, Morris, Baynes, and maybe Smart), in retrospect would have won the title that season, and that might have significantly altered that off season (to be clear I was advocating for the trade when it was rumored).  Perhaps Kawhi and Kyrie love playing together and re-sign.  Maybe just doing the trade itself changes the perception of Boston around the league. 

Ainge never should have acquired Irving if he wasn't willing to go all in around him.  That is his biggest failure.  You don't waste assets to acquire a secondary star if you have no intention of acquiring the primary star when he becomes available.  Leonard was there for the taking and the Celtics let him slip by and lost out on winning a championship in the process.

Could the C's have traded Kyrie at the end of the 2017/18 season for more than the #8 and Crowder? Probably. That would have justified the Kyrie trade. Building around him was never a good idea.

I will admit that if we had gotten SGA instead, we'd be in a whole different place. Even drafting Miles Bridges would have worked out better.

It is also worth considering that as ugly as the IT situation ended up, can you imagine the C's not making the trade, really walking away from him and just moving on?

I don't really have an issue with acquiring Irving (though I rated the trade as a C at the time), my real issue is Ainge never was willing to really build the team around him.  You don't acquire Irving if you have no intention of following it up. 

[greg683x]

To me it’s a lesson on what can happen if you acquire way too many picks and assets with no real exit strategy.  Danny spent a lot of time waiting for the PERFECT deal to come a long until finally the music started to stop and there wasn’t enough chairs for everyone to sit down in.

To be fair to Danny though, the perfect deal did come along and he got royally screwed by Kyrie and Anthony Davis/Rich Paul.  Things could be completely different

I think this is key.  Kyrie doesn't pull a mutiny and AD's advisor's don't pump his head full of anti-Celtic nonsense, we're looking at a multi-year contending roster for the C's.  that was pretty obviously his plan and it was a pretty good plan in a vacuum.  problem is, real life foolishness crapped on the plan and he wasn't able to implement a solid plan B

He should have acquired Leonard.  That was the thing I think I fault him most for.  If he wasn't willing to go all in, then he shouldn't have acquired Irving in the first place.

you're making the assumption that acquiring Leonard was possible without gutting the teams assets or at all.

The Spurs wanted Jaylen Brown from what I remember.

That was my recollection as well.

Yes, and they should have made that trade because a team with a top 5 of Kawhi, Kyrie, Tatum, Hayward, and Horford (not to mention solid depth like Rozier, Morris, Baynes, and maybe Smart), in retrospect would have won the title that season, and that might have significantly altered that off season (to be clear I was advocating for the trade when it was rumored).  Perhaps Kawhi and Kyrie love playing together and re-sign.  Maybe just doing the trade itself changes the perception of Boston around the league. 

Ainge never should have acquired Irving if he wasn't willing to go all in around him.  That is his biggest failure.  You don't waste assets to acquire a secondary star if you have no intention of acquiring the primary star when he becomes available.  Leonard was there for the taking and the Celtics let him slip by and lost out on winning a championship in the process.

I do not think it’s a forgone conclusion that the Celtics win the title that season, it seems like you do

That roster sounds great on paper, but the Gordon Hayward that was on that team in 2018 wasn’t Gordon Hayward, he was a shell of himself all year. 

Also, with the Celtics working Gordon back into shape and also having Leonard on the roster, is Tatum going to get enough playing time and enough shots to get into the kind groove and rhythm he did that year?

There’s lots of what if’s here.  Leonard had made it known that anyone trading for him was getting a one year rental.  I’d say the odds are higher that Kyrie still bolts knowing that the teams best player is about to leave too.

I do agree that given the injuries the warriors suffered and Lebron flopping with the Lakers, the Celtics had probably their best chance to steal a title, but nobody knew that was going to happen.  If they don’t win that title, Leonard leaves, Kyrie leaves.  Then the torches and the pitchforks come out for Ainge. 

I do agree with your point in general though.  Ainge should have pounced on Leonard, I really think he didn’t do it because of Anthony Davis, and then he got the chair kicked out from under him by Rich Paul

[Moranis]

To me it’s a lesson on what can happen if you acquire way too many picks and assets with no real exit strategy.  Danny spent a lot of time waiting for the PERFECT deal to come a long until finally the music started to stop and there wasn’t enough chairs for everyone to sit down in.

To be fair to Danny though, the perfect deal did come along and he got royally screwed by Kyrie and Anthony Davis/Rich Paul.  Things could be completely different

I think this is key.  Kyrie doesn't pull a mutiny and AD's advisor's don't pump his head full of anti-Celtic nonsense, we're looking at a multi-year contending roster for the C's.  that was pretty obviously his plan and it was a pretty good plan in a vacuum.  problem is, real life foolishness crapped on the plan and he wasn't able to implement a solid plan B

He should have acquired Leonard.  That was the thing I think I fault him most for.  If he wasn't willing to go all in, then he shouldn't have acquired Irving in the first place.

you're making the assumption that acquiring Leonard was possible without gutting the teams assets or at all.

The Spurs wanted Jaylen Brown from what I remember.

That was my recollection as well.

Yes, and they should have made that trade because a team with a top 5 of Kawhi, Kyrie, Tatum, Hayward, and Horford (not to mention solid depth like Rozier, Morris, Baynes, and maybe Smart), in retrospect would have won the title that season, and that might have significantly altered that off season (to be clear I was advocating for the trade when it was rumored).  Perhaps Kawhi and Kyrie love playing together and re-sign.  Maybe just doing the trade itself changes the perception of Boston around the league. 

Ainge never should have acquired Irving if he wasn't willing to go all in around him.  That is his biggest failure.  You don't waste assets to acquire a secondary star if you have no intention of acquiring the primary star when he becomes available.  Leonard was there for the taking and the Celtics let him slip by and lost out on winning a championship in the process.

I do not think it’s a forgone conclusion that the Celtics win the title that season, it seems like you do

That roster sounds great on paper, but the Gordon Hayward that was on that team in 2018 wasn’t Gordon Hayward, he was a shell of himself all year. 

Also, with the Celtics working Gordon back into shape and also having Leonard on the roster, is Tatum going to get enough playing time and enough shots to get into the kind groove and rhythm he did that year?

There’s lots of what if’s here.  Leonard had made it known that anyone trading for him was getting a one year rental.  I’d say the odds are higher that Kyrie still bolts knowing that the teams best player is about to leave too.

I do agree that given the injuries the warriors suffered and Lebron flopping with the Lakers, the Celtics had probably their best chance to steal a title, but nobody knew that was going to happen.  If they don’t win that title, Leonard leaves, Kyrie leaves.  Then the torches and the pitchforks come out for Ainge. 

I do agree with your point in general though.  Ainge should have pounced on Leonard, I really think he didn’t do it because of Anthony Davis, and then he got the chair kicked out from under him by Rich Paul

In retrospect, yes I think Boston wins the title with Kawhi as I think Boston had a better team than Toronto (who actually won the title).  Now there is of course some thought that maybe Kawhi doesn't fit as well in Boston as he did in Toronto or that someone like Irving had a meltdown.  I wouldn't have been worried about Tatum at all, as I think that team would have started Tatum, Hayward, and Leonard (along with Irving and Horford).  I was all about the trade when it was rumored because I thought it pretty clearly made Boston the best team in the East.  Still a rung behind a healthy Golden State, but firmly in 2nd all by itself.  Leonard was being brandied about as the best player in the world (I had him 4th, but it wasn't crazy to think he was 1 either).  When you have a chance to acquire that type of talent while still having a top 20 player (Irving), a couple of top 40 players (Hayward/Horford), a rising star along probably in the top 40 (Tatum), along with a lot of quality depth (Rozier, Morris, Baynes), you have to do it.  Every single time.  Without question.  Without thought. 

And yeah if Kawhi left after that 1 season it would have sucked losing Brown, but that is the sort of risk worth taking.  Put your chips all in and go for it.  That is the risk taking Ainge started out as before he went all conservative and soft and became hoarder-Danny instead of trader-Danny.

I also don't think it was a given that Kawhi was automatically gone.  He was reportedly going to re-sign in Toronto had the Clippers not been able to land Paul George.  Assuming he and Irving got along (and that is of course a big IF), he might have determined that Boston was his best chance to win as he and Irving (along with Tatum) could have been set up for years without accounting for the other players. 

And I know Ainge wanted Davis, but Davis didn't want to play with Irving and Irving didn't want to play with Davis.  That is pretty apparent based on their comments and actions.  I just don't think they wanted to do the team up that Ainge envisioned (which is why he should have explored trading Irving and acquiring Davis during that season). 

My main point though is, if you make the trade to acquire Irving, then you have to make the trade for Leonard.  It makes no sense to acquire a secondary player, like Irving, if you aren't going to acquire the primary player that is actually available and gettable.