Not very exciting options for 5th starter

[CFAN38]

Tossing cold water on some of the more exciting trade speculation I wanted to look at a few logical options for the Cs this off-season. While its a point of debate I am fine with the idea of Smart as the starting PG. I suspect the Cs start Smart, Brown, Tatum and Horford with Al's minutes being limited and a lot of rest days factored it (no back to backs). I also expect Fournier to be retained as the high minute 6th man, R-Will to play at least equal min to Al but off the bench, and Pritchard to have a major role. After that Langford and Nesmith will battle for backup wing minutes with Romeo possibly getting some "point guard" time next to point Tatum.

This leaves the Cs looking for 1 more starter. Rather then look for another guard I hope the Cs follow the model that seems to be doing well in the playoffs and add another big Wing next to Tatum. Kyle Anderson has been mentioned as a possible trade target but Im not sure a 3 team trade can be found where Thompson can be used to net Anderson the same goes for R Covington if Portland blows it up. Ultimately I think the Cs end up moving Thompson for a future pick to get off his $$ and sign a cheap 4th big as injury insurance for Al and R-Will (I like M Brown but worry if he is ready for a big role).

This leaves the Celtics to free agency to find a 5th starter. With Fournier and R-Will on the bench I only project this player to be around a 20mpg guy despite starting.

Likely Cheap options

1. Otto Porter Jr 28
2. Jeff Green 35
3. Nic Batum  32
4. James Johnson 34
5. Moe Harkless 28

More expensive options (not likely)

1. Kelly Oubre
2. Doug McDermott

[Roy H.]

Horford
Tatum
Fournier
Brown
Smart

Works for me.

[BruceBanner18]

Horford
Tatum
Fournier
Brown
Smart

Works for me.

5th seed and 1st round exit here we come!

[RJ87]

I said in another that I'd love to add Otto Porter Jr. to this team, but I don't know if he's in our price range.

We'll likely be limited to the tax-MLE and biannual exception. Forwards who can hit the 3 at a 40% clip and play defense are still really valuable. Given his skillset and age, I think there's a couple of teams out there who are willing to give him the nontax-MLE.

[Roy H.]

Horford
Tatum
Fournier
Brown
Smart

Works for me.

5th seed and 1st round exit here we come!

Just like all the other teams JBJT teams before last year?

[BruceBanner18]

Horford
Tatum
Fournier
Brown
Smart

Works for me.

5th seed and 1st round exit here we come!

Just like all the other teams JBJT teams before last year?

Basically. A playoff team but not a real contender.

[Who]

I said in another that I'd love to add Otto Porter Jr. to this team, but I don't know if he's in our price range.

We'll likely be limited to the tax-MLE and biannual exception. Forwards who can hit the 3 at a 40% clip and play defense are still really valuable. Given his skillset and age, I think there's a couple of teams out there who are willing to give him the nontax-MLE.

I like him too.

I thought Chicago put him in bad positions on offense by pairing him at SF next to Markkanen at PF and alongside a C.

A few reasons:

(1) Markkanen was a C pretending to be a PF. He lacked the ball-handling, passing and shot creation off the dribble against smaller quicker forwards to be more than a spot-up shooter type perimeter player at PF.
(2) Otto Porter himself is a low skilled ball-handler & passer and limited to being a spot up shooter & transition scorer at SF. This meant Chicago had two limited offensive threats at forward.
(3) The C on the team was not able to compensate for this. They played a young center in Wendell Carter trying to find his feet in the league or a low skilled center or a 3rd string center like Kornet.

So Chicago were getting less than out of their frontcourt and Porter's offensive limitations were constantly being highlighted rather than his strengths being accentuated.

Put Porter in a situation where he has more gifted / well rounded offensive threats at forward and center alongside him and let Porter stick to his strengths (spot up shooter) and you will get a better performance out of him.

So I like him as a guy to do much better as a glue guy outside of Chicago than he did in Chicago because of better recognition of his strengths / weaknesses.

[ETNCeltics]

Look at the 4th and 5th starters on the teams remaining in the playoffs. Nothing exciting there, either.

[nebist]

Here’s my realistic remaining off-season (with no “major’ trades).

1. Trade TT to Sac for Delon Wright. Basically same expiring salaries. They don't have a starting C pending Richaun Holmes (adding TT gives them a viable starter or quality backup if Holmes is retained). They have two PG in Fox and Haliburton already. If you need to throw in a 2nd or Carsen, do it.
2. Re-sign Fournier up to a 4/64 deal.
3. Use the tax MLE on a 4. Any of Gay, Millsap, Tucker, or Jeff Green would be fine with me. Makes it so you don't have to play Grant at all unless he earns it.
4. Sign Smart to a 4 year extension. Let's say 4/68 to get him a bit more than Fournier but not quite his max of 4/77.
5. See if you can extend TimeLord for under 12 mil per year.

Smart / Wright / Pritchard
Brown / Nesmith
Fournier / Langford
Tatum / MLE (Gay?) / Grant
Timelord / Horford / Moses

If the bench lacks scoring punch, Fournier could move to a 6th man role and the MLE 4 could move into the starting lineup.

[Boss_D]

Timelord + G. Williams = Mo Bamba  /  Timelord + T. Thompson = Mo Bamba

C  - Bamba   / M. Brown                        / Kornet
Pf - Horford  / (G. Williams/Thompson)   / Parker
SF - Tatum  / Nesmith                          /  Langford
SG - Brown / Fournier                          / ( Edwards?/#45 pick)
PG - Smart / Pritchard                         /   Madar

[Smartacus]

FWIW it would be a very good thing for either Langford or Nesmith to take the final spot.

Low end upside - One of them proves to be serviceable and can fill in until a true option is found, preserving Fournier as the 6th man.

Mid range upside - One or both of them plat well with the starters but it's clear that something else is needed in the starting lineup. They become a blue chip trade asset for a team looking to get younger at a position of our need.

High end upside - Langford or Nesmith actually prove to be capable of being quality starters on a deep a playoff team. Celtics aren't perfect but their spot with Tatum and Brown is secure. Of the 2 I think Nesmith has the greater chance to rise this high.

Also worth noting the there is a small chance that the answer to the 5th starter question is Jabari Parker. Probably a long shot but he does provide a different skillset than Tatum and Brown.

[CFAN38]

I said in another that I'd love to add Otto Porter Jr. to this team, but I don't know if he's in our price range.

We'll likely be limited to the tax-MLE and biannual exception. Forwards who can hit the 3 at a 40% clip and play defense are still really valuable. Given his skillset and age, I think there's a couple of teams out there who are willing to give him the nontax-MLE.

Porter's health issues will likely limit his contract size.

One thing the Cs will have going for them with any big wing that they pursue in free agency is that the role and a chance to start is clearly there.

Given that Udona was just with the Nets I wonder if a Jeff Green's return to Boston would be the most logical. Green has bounced around a lot and the Tax MLE might be his last pay day given his age.

[RJ87]

I said in another that I'd love to add Otto Porter Jr. to this team, but I don't know if he's in our price range.

We'll likely be limited to the tax-MLE and biannual exception. Forwards who can hit the 3 at a 40% clip and play defense are still really valuable. Given his skillset and age, I think there's a couple of teams out there who are willing to give him the nontax-MLE.

Porter's health issues will likely limit his contract size.

One thing the Cs will have going for them with any big wing that they pursue in free agency is that the role and a chance to start is clearly there.

Given that Udona was just with the Nets I wonder if a Jeff Green's return to Boston would be the most logical. Green has bounced around a lot and the Tax MLE might be his last pay day given his age.

People also said that about Gordon Hayward. It only takes one team willing to "overpay". Although, I'm not sure the non tax MLE is an overpay in Otto's case.

Agree on Jeff Green, he was another guy I previously mentioned I'd like. As was Rudy Gay. I think those guys are gettable given our lack of flexibility.

[Celtics2021]

I think the 5th starter question will be decided by how much the Celtics believe Time Lord and Horford can share the court together successfully, vs. how much of that is offseason talk to pretend there isn’t a logjam with the bigs.  If it works, then Smart, Brown, Tatum, Horford, TimeLord is the clear starting 5, and free agency is to and veteran depth to the bench.  If that’s just spin (as I personally think it is), I think starter #5 is either Fournier or Romeo with Tatum playing the 4, or a PF acquired via the trade marker who makes in the $8-13 million range.

[CFAN38]

FWIW it would be a very good thing for either Langford or Nesmith to take the final spot.

Low end upside - One of them proves to be serviceable and can fill in until a true option is found, preserving Founier as the 6th man.

Mid range upside - One or both of them account themselves very well but it's clear that something else is needed in the starting lineup. They become a blue chip trade asset for a team looking to get younger at a position of our need.

High end upside - Langford or Nesmith actually prove to be capable of being quality starters on a deep a playoff team. Celtics aren't perfect but their spot with Tatum and Brown is secure. Of the 2 I think Nesmith has the greater chance to rise this high.

Also worth noting the there is a small chance that the answer to the 5th starter question is Jabari Parker. Probably a long shot but he does provide a different skillset than Tatum and Brown.

I don't think either young wing is ready to start unless this team wants to risk another play-in game appearance.

Long-term my hope is that Langford can develop more as a secondary creator and play as BPS put it an "Evan Turner like PG role". A bench where Pritchard plays more off the ball with Langford on the ball could be a nice look down the road. As for Nesmith I was a major pessimist when he was picked largely due to his lack of foot speed. After watching him play this past season I am much more optimistic but feel that he needs to add strength and defensively play more of a 3/4 type role despite his height. The prime example of this is Jae Crowder who despite being 6'4.75" bare foot is able to defend large wings using his strength and length. If Nesmith bulks up from his current list 215 to around 225/230 that will make him roughly the same size as Paul Pierce who ended his career playing a lot of undersized 4. 


How I see minutes distributed this season

Player Totals

Tatum   34
Brown   34
Smart   32
Fournier   26
R Williams   22
Green   22
Horford   20
Pritchard   19
Langford   16
Nesmith   15


PG   Smart   29   Pritchard   19      
SG   Brown   34   Fournier   11   Smart   3
SF   Tatum   17   Langford   16   Fournier   15
PF   Green    16   Nesmith   15   Tatum   17
C   Horford   20   R Williams 22   Green   6