If Brad is smart, by the 2023 off-season the only contracts on the books are Tatum, Brown, Nesmith and Pritchard. That's a bit over $70 million in salary, with a projected $119 million cap. Embiid is a free agent; maybe he's hoping to pair with a true superstar in Jayson Tatum at that point.
Is Tatum, Embiid, Brown, Nesmith, Pritchard, and a bunch of guys on small / minimum contracts actually a contender?
Yes, absolutely.
1. I'm not so sure, especially given Embiid's injury issues (the only playoff run he's been healthy for was a 1st round sweep)
2. I really don't like the idea of all or nothing strategies based around targeting one specific player. What are the Celtics left with if Embiid doesn't decide to come to Boston? If the answer is "Beal" then they gave up two seasons to lock in as a dark horse contender (which they could've been all along). If the answer is "nobody" then they're basically toast and will have to start considering a full rebuild. Brown will be on the last guaranteed year of his deal. Tatum will have just two years left. The Celts won't have time to kick it over and try again in 2024.
My feeling is you really can't afford to take for granted any year in which you have a player like Tatum on your roster. Particularly when you have a second player like Brown also under contract. Every year they aren't putting themselves in a position to at least have a puncher's chance against the top teams in the conference in a seven game series is a wasted season.
Sometimes you have to waste seasons because of mistakes made in the past, or bad luck. Maybe Kemba's contract will hamstring the Celtics to that extent. I sure hope not.