The Celtics Need a Dramatic Change

[Jiri Welsch]

Full disclosure: I'm a "Green Teamer" or optimistic Celtics fan. So hopefully this post isn't taken as yet another disgruntled troll blowing off some steam. But it's become readily apparent the Celtics' trajectory is not headed toward a championship without a notable course shift.

The front office (or ownership) needs to have the courage to make a few dramatic changes this offseason. Look at what Philadelphia did last season -- they got a new coach, retooled their supporting cast, and bounced right back to a team with a puncher's chance.

Meanwhile we have a superstar who doesn't carry himself like someone who cares. He's definitely not a leader and seems only focused on "getting his" in the stat sheet. We have a head coach who is great but clearly has his shortcomings. The Celtics are soft this year and can't close out games. This year when the Celtics have been down at half they've gone 4-19.

The list of legitimately worrying features feels endless, but I'll stop for now.

All this is to say: I'm not sure I can stomach another season where the Celtics "stay the course" with Tatum, Brown, Kemba, and Smart -- assuming we somehow will make a gigantic leap without ever actually accepting and correcting this roster's failings.

[Donoghus]

Full disclosure: I'm a "Green Teamer" or optimistic Celtics fan. So hopefully this post isn't taken as yet another disgruntled troll blowing off some steam. But it's become readily apparent the Celtics' trajectory is not headed toward a championship without a notable course shift.

The front office (or ownership) needs to have the courage to make a few dramatic changes this offseason. Look at what Philadelphia did last season -- they got a new coach, retooled their supporting cast, and bounced right back to a team with a puncher's chance.

Meanwhile we have a superstar who doesn't carry himself like someone who cares. He's definitely not a leader and seems only focused on "getting his" in the stat sheet. We have a head coach who is great but clearly has his shortcomings. The Celtics are soft this year and can't close out games. This year when the Celtics have been down at half they've gone 4-19.

The list of legitimately worrying features feels endless, but I'll stop for now.

All this is to say: I'm not sure I can stomach another season where the Celtics "stay the course" with Tatum, Brown, Kemba, and Smart -- assuming we somehow will make a gigantic leap without ever actually accepting and correcting this roster's failings.

I don't think they're gonna stay the course after this season unless something drastically changes here these next 20 or so games and/or playoffs. 

It's pretty apparent that something is going to need to be done. The current isn't cutting.

How drastic?  I don't know but I think you'll see some pretty significant moves in the offseason. 

[Jiri Welsch]

I don't think they're gonna stay the course after this season unless something drastically changes here these next 20 or so games and/or playoffs. 

It's pretty apparent that something is going to need to be done. The current isn't cutting.

How drastic?  I don't know but I think you'll see some pretty significant moves in the offseason.

I just worry that the Celtics' undeniable tendency to overvalue their own players is going to prevent the necessary changes from happening.

e.g. Smart leaving the team might be sad, but it might help the team. Brad getting fired might be unfair, but if he isn't reaching your best player then it needs to happen. Getting out of Kemba's contract might cost a young guy and a pick, but it needs to happen sooner rather than later.

[Celtics4ever]

I just worry that the Celtics' undeniable tendency to overvalue their own players is going to prevent the necessary changes from happening.

We all should be scared of this very thing.

[PhoSita]

The question is how?

I don't buy that the coach is the problem because whatever things you can say about him, the team has been very good in other years, and punched above their weight in the playoffs.  The coach hasn't changed, yet the results are different.  Makes me think it's more about the roster and all of the exigent circumstances than it is about anything the coach is or is not doing.

I think the roster needs an upgrade. Specifically, I think the Celts needs 2-3 more reliable role players who complement what Tatum and Brown can and cannot do.  In other words, they need better depth with more experience.

So again: how?

Without adding anybody to this roster or re-signing any free agents, the Celts are going to be right at the luxury tax line next season.  Not the salary cap; the luxury tax.

Just re-signing Fournier to what he's likely to cost will put the Celts wayyyy over the tax line.


So then you have to figure they'll need to look to trade Kemba and/or Thompson.  Thompson now looks like a bad fit and a bad signing.  Problem -- he's under contract for a couple more years at the full MLE amount.  Oops.  It'll probably require an asset to move him without taking back money. 

Kemba is also probably a negative asset.  Other teams will know that the Celts are in a bind financially and probably will expect to give up nothing, or even take back assets, in order to acquire Kemba.


To make matters worse, the young guys the Celts have probably don't carry a lot of trade value.  The Celts can't really afford to trade away the 2-3 younger players who have demonstrated that they belong in an NBA rotation.  So then you've got to hope that other teams will see Aaron Nesmith, Romeo Langford, and Grant Williams as positive trade assets.  I'm not sure how realistic that is given how little they've shown to date.

Are you willing to give up Pritchard?  Sure, but given how tight the money is already, it'd be tough to trade away one of the few productive role players you have on a cheap deal. 

Rob Williams?  He's probably the only X-factor the team really has right now.  The only guy with better than "decent" upside who isn't getting paid a ton of money.  So I don't think you can really afford to trade him.


It's a tough spot. 


Oh, and the other thing -- Smart is a free agent after next year.  Are they going to be in a position to pay him?  Should they?  Smart on a team friendly deal long term makes a ton of sense, especially if you've got a roster that's already in making-a-deep-playoff-run mode.  This is why the Fournier thing may in effect be a decision between re-signing Fournier and keeping Smart.  Much harder choice.

Smart on a young, middle-of-the-road team doesn't make nearly as much sense.



It's difficult to avoid the thought that the team is going to have to take a step back, and give up real assets, just in order to create the kind of flexibility that they will need to have the chance to take some big swings, get lucky, and be in a position to compete with teams like Philly and Milwaukee before Tatum and Brown are getting ready to consider other teams in free agency.

[Jiri Welsch]

Oh, and the other thing -- Smart is a free agent after next year.  Are they going to be in a position to pay him?  Should they?  Smart on a team friendly deal long term makes a ton of sense, especially if you've got a roster that's already in making-a-deep-playoff-run mode. 

Smart on a young, middle-of-the-road team doesn't make nearly as much sense.

To answer your question about "How?" I think the Celtics need to trade Smart. His defense has declined and when considering his offensive decision-making he's a net negative over the course of a season.

Smart and Thompson are both ~10 million each on expiring contracts. That should be enticing for some teams looking for vets and expecting to compete.

Trade Kemba for a bag of balls and a good bench player.

The cap situation is navigable, this is why Danny makes the big bucks. But he also makes the big bucks because he's tasked with making tough decisions. Time for him to make some of them.

[Moranis]

I think they need to move on from Walker. 

If the Clippers flame out, I think i'd try something like this

Walker, Thompson for Zubac, Beverley, Morris as the basic framework (hard to tell exactly where the numbers will fall on if more needs to come to Boston)

Gives Boston a young big man, who hopefully can pair with Williams, but either way gives a nice 1/2 combo at center. 

Then I'd try to trade Smart for a younger better offensive player.  Someone like Bogdanovic or Bertans would be a nice target.

So if you do that you have roughly (with a spot for the 1st rounder and a F.A.)

PG - Beverley, Pritchard, Edwards
SG - Brown, Fournier, Langford
SF - Tatum, Nesmith
PF - Bertans, Morris
C - R. Williams, Zubac, Wagner

I think that team while not a dramatic change, has a lot more depth, some younger better fitting pieces, etc.  And Boston would still have the draft picks and salary needed to go after someone like Beal should he become available.

[PhoSita]

Oh, and the other thing -- Smart is a free agent after next year.  Are they going to be in a position to pay him?  Should they?  Smart on a team friendly deal long term makes a ton of sense, especially if you've got a roster that's already in making-a-deep-playoff-run mode. 

Smart on a young, middle-of-the-road team doesn't make nearly as much sense.

To answer your question about "How?" I think the Celtics need to trade Smart. His defense has declined and when considering his offensive decision-making he's a net negative over the course of a season.

Smart and Thompson are both ~10 million each on expiring contracts. That should be enticing for some teams looking for vets and expecting to compete.

Trade Kemba for a bag of balls and a good bench player.

The cap situation is navigable, this is why Danny makes the big bucks. But he also makes the big bucks because he's tasked with making tough decisions. Time for him to make some of them.

So let's game this out.


According to Spotrac the Celts have -$19.845 million in practical cap space this summer.

The Knicks have ~$72.866 million in practical cap space.

Well, Kemba has always been great at MSG, right? 

Move 1: On draft night, trade BOS 2021 pick (probably mid to late teens) along with Tristan Thompson to the Orlando Magic (who have cap space) for Michael Carter Williams ($3.3 million expiring)

That nets you $6.4 million in space under the luxury tax.

Move 2: Trade Kemba + lottery protected 2022 1st round pick to the Knicks for Kevin Knox ($5.8 million expiring)

That nets you $30 million in money off the books. 


Even with these moves you don't end up under the cap because of Fournier's cap hit.  So you never go under the cap and you'd have the MLE to use.

Even so you're going to be limited in what you spend because after re-signing Fournier you won't be that far away from the luxury tax, and you don't want to put yourself in the same bind you were just in.

You probably need to use (some) of that money to sign a center, because after trading Thompson you've only got Rob Williams and Tacko (hah).  Maybe you give Luke Kornet a modest raise to something like $3 million per year over 2 years, second year non-guaranteed.

 
You will need a point guard, unless you want Smart to be the full time starter.  That doesnt' seem like the best idea to me.  The problem is, the point guard market is kinda barren.  Do you want to pay Kyle Lowry big bucks for a couple years?  Does that put you over the top?  What about Goran Dragic?

Personally, if we're trading Kemba, I really don't want them to replace him with another >30 guard who has trouble staying on the floor.  But they also can't really afford to spend $20+ million a year on a guy who isn't a star.

Maybe you try to get a deal on a guy like Patty Mills or TJ McConnell, but neither of those guys is really a starter.  Maybe you're just looking to get a guy on an OK contract that you expect to be able to trade in a later move. 


Well, if you go down the line, you still have the same problem now.  A bench of guys you mostly don't trust.

So on top of all of the stuff I just mentioned, are you gonna try to trade away Langford, Nesmith, etc in order to get some decent bench help? 


My point here is that you're gonna have to do a lot of work just to dig yourself out of where you're at with Kemba and Thompson. 

[GreenCoffeeBean]

I’d sell high on Tatum. Maybe he becomes a leader somewhere else but I doubt it. I’m sure Ainge will get calls over the summer.

I’d like to get rid of Kemba’s awful contract but would hate to give up Pritchard, Langford, or Nesmith.

[Jiri Welsch]

I’d sell high on Tatum. Maybe he becomes a leader somewhere else but I doubt it. I’m sure Ainge will get calls over the summer.

I’d like to get rid of Kemba’s awful contract but would hate to give up Pritchard, Langford, or Nesmith.

The issue with Tatum is he's a potentially generational talent. The likelihood that Tatum develops an inner "dog" and actually gets to being a Top 5 player is a lot better than us trading Tatum and getting proportional value and going through a quick rebuild.

[slamtheking]

I think they need to move on from Walker. 

If the Clippers flame out, I think i'd try something like this

Walker, Thompson for Zubac, Beverley, Morris as the basic framework (hard to tell exactly where the numbers will fall on if more needs to come to Boston)

Gives Boston a young big man, who hopefully can pair with Williams, but either way gives a nice 1/2 combo at center. 

Then I'd try to trade Smart for a younger better offensive player.  Someone like Bogdanovic or Bertans would be a nice target.

So if you do that you have roughly (with a spot for the 1st rounder and a F.A.)

PG - Beverley, Pritchard, Edwards
SG - Brown, Fournier, Langford
SF - Tatum, Nesmith
PF - Bertans, Morris
C - R. Williams, Zubac, Wagner

I think that team while not a dramatic change, has a lot more depth, some younger better fitting pieces, etc.  And Boston would still have the draft picks and salary needed to go after someone like Beal should he become available.

have to say this is possibly your best and most reasonable trade proposal I've seen in quite awhile.  I don't think that lineup is a contender by any stretch of the imagination but I think it'd have a bit more consistency on the court.  One thing I would also try to do is shoehorn Edwards into a deal if for no other reason than to free up his wasted roster spot. 

Noticed there's no Semi or GWill on that roster even though they're not in the trade proposals.  Would like to upgrade from them to a real PF -- Bertans isn't who I'd want starting at PF - he's more of a bench player.

[Donoghus]

I’d sell high on Tatum. Maybe he becomes a leader somewhere else but I doubt it. I’m sure Ainge will get calls over the summer.

I’d like to get rid of Kemba’s awful contract but would hate to give up Pritchard, Langford, or Nesmith.

The issue with Tatum is he's a potentially generational talent. The likelihood that Tatum develops an inner "dog" and actually gets to being a Top 5 player is a lot better than us trading Tatum and getting proportional value and going through a quick rebuild.

Unless there is some major underlying locker room issues/chemistry stuff stemming from him, there is about zero chance he's getting moved any time soon.

[GreenCoffeeBean]

I’d sell high on Tatum. Maybe he becomes a leader somewhere else but I doubt it. I’m sure Ainge will get calls over the summer.

I’d like to get rid of Kemba’s awful contract but would hate to give up Pritchard, Langford, or Nesmith.

The issue with Tatum is he's a potentially generational talent. The likelihood that Tatum develops an inner "dog" and actually gets to being a Top 5 player is a lot better than us trading Tatum and getting proportional value and going through a quick rebuild.

I think it’s pretty clear that he’s a good player but not a generational talent. He’s in that Jamaal Murray and Devin Booker tier.

[nickagneta]

Oh, and the other thing -- Smart is a free agent after next year.  Are they going to be in a position to pay him?  Should they?  Smart on a team friendly deal long term makes a ton of sense, especially if you've got a roster that's already in making-a-deep-playoff-run mode. 

Smart on a young, middle-of-the-road team doesn't make nearly as much sense.

To answer your question about "How?" I think the Celtics need to trade Smart. His defense has declined and when considering his offensive decision-making he's a net negative over the course of a season.

Smart and Thompson are both ~10 million each on expiring contracts. That should be enticing for some teams looking for vets and expecting to compete.

Trade Kemba for a bag of balls and a good bench player.

The cap situation is navigable, this is why Danny makes the big bucks. But he also makes the big bucks because he's tasked with making tough decisions. Time for him to make some of them.

So let's game this out.


According to Spotrac the Celts have -$19.845 million in practical cap space this summer.

The Knicks have ~$72.866 million in practical cap space.

Well, Kemba has always been great at MSG, right? 

Move 1: On draft night, trade BOS 2021 pick (probably mid to late teens) along with Tristan Thompson to the Orlando Magic (who have cap space) for Michael Carter Williams ($3.3 million expiring)

That nets you $6.4 million in cap space.

Move 2: Trade Kemba + lottery protected 2022 1st round pick to the Knicks for Kevin Knox ($5.8 million expiring)

That nets you $30 million in money off the cap. 


Those two moves would put you around $16.5 million under the cap ... I think.  I'm not a cap guru.  Just using Spotrac here.  But you could then re-sign Fournier for, let's say, $20 million per year over 3 years, with a team option on the third year.


You could use cap space to sign somebody else first, or you could not do that and use the MLE again (since re-signing Fournier doesn't require cap space). 

Either way you're going to be limited in what you spend because after re-signing Fournier you won't be that far away from the luxury tax, and you don't want to put yourself in the same bind you were just in.

You probably need to use (some) of that money to sign a center, because after trading Thompson you've only got Rob Williams and Tacko (hah).  Maybe you give Luke Kornet a modest raise to something like $3 million per year over 2 years, second year non-guaranteed.

 
You will need a point guard, unless you want Smart to be the full time starter.  That doesnt' seem like the best idea to me.  The problem is, the point guard market is kinda barren.  Do you want to pay Kyle Lowry big bucks for a couple years?  Does that put you over the top?  What about Goran Dragic?

Personally, if we're trading Kemba, I really don't want them to replace him with another >30 guard who has trouble staying on the floor.  But they also can't really afford to spend $20+ million a year on a guy who isn't a star.

Maybe you try to get a deal on a guy like Patty Mills or TJ McConnell, but neither of those guys is really a starter.  Maybe you're just looking to get a guy on an OK contract that you expect to be able to trade in a later move. 


Well, if you go down the line, you still have the same problem now.  A bench of guys you mostly don't trust.

So on top of all of the stuff I just mentioned, are you gonna try to trade away Langford, Nesmith, etc in order to get some decent bench help? 


My point here is that you're gonna have to do a lot of work just to dig yourself out of where you're at with Kemba and Thompson.

This won't work.

Fournier has a large cap hold that counts against the numbers until he is signed or renounced. So you can't clear cap space, sign someone then re-sign Fournier using his Bird rights. The Fournier cap hold keeps you above the salary cap line.

You're better off trading Smart and Kemba for hopefully better players, using the TPE(which you would also had to renounce in your unable to do scenario) to bring in someone in trade and rebuilding that way.

Kemba, Smart and a raft of picks for Beal seems right. Let Beal be the PG or Pritchard.

Pritchard
Beal
Brown
Tatum
Timelord
 
Fournier-sixth man

Then you have a raft of youth and the TPE you might have to move with Thompson to upgrade the team.

[PhoSita]

I’d sell high on Tatum. Maybe he becomes a leader somewhere else but I doubt it. I’m sure Ainge will get calls over the summer.

So you want to be bad for like 5 years?

How confident are you that we're getting another player under 28 with Tatum's talent, say, in the next decade?