The Brooklyn Nets would take a step back. They would go for the #1 favourite in the East to 3rd and well back on both Philly and Milwaukee. Without enough defense, they will be not be as competitive.
Without the threat of the 3 point line, their offense is not as scary. Relying on individual brilliance -- one-on-one skills & shot-making -- of Harden, Kyrie and Durant instead of teamwork makes them easier to game-plan for so opposing teams with strong defenses will be better able to disrupt them. Not a real contender. 2nd round and out type of team.
The Spurs take a huge step back. Their 3 guards, 1 wing and 1 big man lineup would get decimated. One of the worst teams in the league. They are going to get beaten up and their defense is going to go into the toilet.
The Blazers also stand out as a team due for a major setback. Lillard becomes much less of a threat without the 3 (as does Steph Curry). They rely more on the one-on-one skills of small guards who can now be kept out of high value scoring opportunities so their offense takes a huge step back and their defense sucks. So they suck. Non-playoff team.
TP for all the excellent analysis.
I have a question though, do you think overall pace would change as a strategy to offset the loss of the extra point and do you think it would go up or down?
Teams like the Nets and Lakers, for instance, I think would try to slow the pace due to the age and fragility of their players and make the game a complete half court type game, whereas, teams like Milwaukee and Philly might do well to increase the pace even more and go for a fast break style.
And this being a copycat league, which style do you think would become most prevalent?
Personally, I would prefer the fast break game, but coaches being what they are and loving having the control, I think a slower paced, half court game might dominate team's thinking when it comes to offensive strategy.
One thing I know for sure, this Celtics team as currently constructed best be a fast pace team that hits the offensive boards hard in the half court sets.
I'm guessing slower ...
I'm thinking guys like LeBron and CP3 who can control a team's pace, organize an offense and make sure their team gets a good shot in the half-court become the trend-setters for other teams to follow. Both older guys who prefer a slower pace.
I remember when the D'Antoni Suns were in their early years they did a statistical study that showed playing slow helps teams who are less talented. Less possessions = less opportunities to exploit differences in offensive / defensive net efficiency. Playing slow (like Mike Fratello's Grizzlies at the time) gave less talented teams a better chance at stealing a win against faster teams. I'd expect that ideology to come back among lesser teams.
I'd also see more teams deciding that it is easier to win with defense than with offense. So more focus on slowing the game down, forcing the opponent to play against a set halfcourt defense and force low percentage contested long two point jump-shots. So that focus would slow the pace down as well.
The counter to that is to run and score in transition. Easiest scores were transition hoops. It would be so nice to see teams running for layups again!
I'd say the teams that would be best equipped to play at a fast tempo are defensive teams that force turnovers rather than defensive teams that prefer fundamentally sound position defense and forcing contested long jump-shots. So I would think of younger more athletic defensive teams that can jump passing lanes, that can trap and double team aggressively.
The Memphis Grizzlies with their depth and young athletic legs could do that really well. Teams with big guards and quick wings. Knicks (again) another team that could do well here. Maybe the Clippers but they would be more methodical in the halfcourt with Kawhi if they don't score in transition.
Most of the top assist guys are defensive manipulators in the halfcourt rather than fastbreaking PGs. Most are scoring PGs rather than setup men. I wonder how well they adjust and run the break. Or if they run more as scorers since more positions now are expected / able to handle and pass the ball in transition.