One forgotten point on the TPE

[Walker Wiggle]

One thing I think that is being overlooked with this Hayward TPE is its attractiveness to the opposing team to reduce salary.

Let’s say a rebuilding team is open to deal a player making $20m this year. There are essentially three types of trades they can make to send him out:

1) Trade him for players making similar money (within 25%, if I’m remembering correctly).
2) Trade him to a team with a TPE and take back less salary than in #1, or none at all, getting a pick or picks back.
3) Trade him to a team with cap space and take back less salary or none at all, taking a pick or picks back.

#3 is virtually impossible at the deadline, because no contending teams that I’m aware of have cap space, especially mid-season.

When teams who are ready to give up on this season and have players to sell off are looking for trade partners, they may be more inclined to make a #2 deal with a TPE holding team, thereby taking back no salary.

Even if a team takes back players on expiring deals to make a trade work under scenario #1, you’re still asking the team owner to pay a player making at least $15m for the last third of the season. How much is $5m worth to an owner, especially a stingy one?

This is one of the reasons I believe teams will trade with the Celtics, and that TPE could get used at the deadline, and the outgoing assets the Celtics send out may not be as significant as we tend to believe. Essentially this a way for a team owner to take back a little less in a trade while saving a few million dollars in a lost season.

[footey]

One thing I think that is being overlooked with this Hayward TPE is its attractiveness to the opposing team to reduce salary.

Let’s say a rebuilding team is open to deal a player making $20m this year. There are essentially three types of trades they can make to send him out:

1) Trade him for players making similar money (within 25%, if I’m remembering correctly).
2) Trade him to a team with a TPE and take back less salary than in #1, or none at all, getting a pick or picks back.
3) Trade him to a team with cap space and take back less salary or none at all, taking a pick or picks back.

#3 is virtually impossible at the deadline, because no contending teams that I’m aware of have cap space, especially mid-season.

When teams who are ready to give up on this season and have players to sell off are looking for trade partners, they may be more inclined to make a #2 deal with a TPE holding team, thereby taking back no salary.

Even if a team takes back players on expiring deals to make a trade work under scenario #1, you’re still asking the team owner to pay a player making at least $15m for the last third of the season. How much is $5m worth to an owner, especially a stingy one?

This is one of the reasons I believe teams will trade with the Celtics, and that TPE could get used at the deadline, and the outgoing assets the Celtics send out may not be as significant as we tend to believe. Essentially this a way for a team owner to take back a little less in a trade while saving a few million dollars in a lost season.

This is a great point.  Unfortunately the hard cap, as I understand, will require us to send back salary if the traded player's salary is above a certain amount ($16mm?? I forget how much).  So we can basically accommodate salary dumping up to that point, but not to the full $28.5 mm, unless we are able to involve a third team (e.g., trade Tristan Thompson for a protected first, or two seconds, and move those picks, along with our own first, to the Kings for Harrison Barnes).

[pearljammer10]

We can absorb right around 21.5.

Sending a player like Edwards out to a team would put us in the right range to absorb Barnes.

Sac would open up about 24 million in cap space next year by making such a deal (plus would also have Cory Joseph’s 12.6 mil contract which is only 2.4 guaranteed). That could give them a max slot to sign a max FA if they waived him next year. Not sure would would sign with the Kings for a max but that’s a lot of money.

Other plus to trying to make a move for Barnes is that his salary is declining.

[jambr380]

This is a good point, but as footey and pj mentioned, we will need to send out some salary to stay below the hard cap if we are using most of the TPE. And I am 99.9% sure we are not going to go into the tax this season, so add a few million more to that outgoing salary. This is still extremely beneficial to another team - probably more so than ever before (and it would be REALLY beneficial if we were able to help a team get below the tax). It'll be interesting to see if anything comes of it this season.

[Csfan1984]

Wouldn't say it's forgotten more like overlooked. A few mention rolling it. I have mentioned worse case scenario is you accept a salary dump and get a 1st for the TPE.

[hardlyyardley]

not bad....not Aaron Gordon or Myles Turner but a consolation

[hardlyyardley]

Does the team on the other side now get our TPE?

[NKY fan]

while this is a god point and has always been a part of the TPEs value ... it is hard to find players and teams around the league that fit the combination of:
1) the Player is at least average
2) the Player is a tiny bit overpaid but not by too much - His salary is in the range: $15M-$28.5M
3) Player's contract fits the TPE and our cap restrictions
4) Player's team is looking to sacrifice some of the assets coming in exchange for less $$ coming in a trade

If you look around teams payrolls and try to find anything that fits the 4 bullet points you won't come up with many names - It is basically ORL (with 2-3 players that have been discussed at length on this forum) and maybe a couple other teams/players.

Maybe you can find a few players that make in the $8M-$12M range but matching those contracts is much easier because of the 175%+$100K rule and a few teams decent size TPEs too.

[nickagneta]

I believe the Celtics might be able to grab a first rounder from the Warriors by taking on Kelly Oubre this year to reduce their luxury tax bill by $68 million. Oubre is an expiring that you most likely don't bring back, but he might also be exactly what Romeo might turn into and so maybe, and that's a gigantic maybe, you do re-sign him and move Romeo for something better.

[Roy H.]

We can absorb right around 21.5.

We can, but we won’t.  That puts us above the luxury tax.  The Celts are unlikely to pay that unless a true star is coming back.  Resetting the repeater tax so that we can spend more freely going forward is important.

Net salary we can realistically take in is right around $15 million, I think.

[NKY fan]

I believe the Celtics might be able to grab a first rounder from the Warriors by taking on Kelly Oubre this year to reduce their luxury tax bill by $68 million. Oubre is an expiring that you most likely don't bring back, but he might also be exactly what Romeo might turn into and so maybe, and that's a gigantic maybe, you do re-sign him and move Romeo for something better.

I cant see GSW giving up a future 1st rd pick (since they can't trade their 2021 FRP) that easy... but something like this may work for all involved:

Celtics in:
Oubre + Chriss (dead salary) + GSW 2022 FRP unprotected

GSW in:
Semi + BOS 2021 FRP top 10 protected ...

I think doing this Danny will have 5 FRPs (or 6 FRPs if he manages to trade Theis for a later year pick for some team on the verge of contending ) next year to trade for a disgruntled star ...  why not both J. Grant and Vucevic 

[Roy H.]

I believe the Celtics might be able to grab a first rounder from the Warriors by taking on Kelly Oubre this year to reduce their luxury tax bill by $68 million. Oubre is an expiring that you most likely don't bring back, but he might also be exactly what Romeo might turn into and so maybe, and that's a gigantic maybe, you do re-sign him and move Romeo for something better.

I cant see GSW giving up a future 1st rd pick (since they can't trade their 2021 FRP) that easy... but something like this may work for all involved:

Celtics in:
Oubre + Chriss (dead salary) + GSW 2022 FRP unprotected

GSW in:
Semi + BOS 2021 FRP top 10 protected ...

I think doing this Danny will have 5 FRPs (or 6 FRPs if he manages to trade Theis for a later year pick for some team on the verge of contending ) next year to trade for a disgruntled star ...  why not both J. Grant and Vucevic 

Why would we do that? It’s likely that we end up giving the best pick in the deal and using a bulk of our TPE to take on a guy we don’t want.

[NKY fan]

I believe the Celtics might be able to grab a first rounder from the Warriors by taking on Kelly Oubre this year to reduce their luxury tax bill by $68 million. Oubre is an expiring that you most likely don't bring back, but he might also be exactly what Romeo might turn into and so maybe, and that's a gigantic maybe, you do re-sign him and move Romeo for something better.

I cant see GSW giving up a future 1st rd pick (since they can't trade their 2021 FRP) that easy... but something like this may work for all involved:

Celtics in:
Oubre + Chriss (dead salary) + GSW 2022 FRP unprotected

GSW in:
Semi + BOS 2021 FRP top 10 protected ...

I think doing this Danny will have 5 FRPs (or 6 FRPs if he manages to trade Theis for a later year pick for some team on the verge of contending ) next year to trade for a disgruntled star ...  why not both J. Grant and Vucevic 

Why would we do that? It’s likely that we end up giving the best pick in the deal and using a bulk of our TPE to take on a guy we don’t want.

To outbid a team that has less than 5 unprotested pics if a star is available

[nickagneta]

I believe the Celtics might be able to grab a first rounder from the Warriors by taking on Kelly Oubre this year to reduce their luxury tax bill by $68 million. Oubre is an expiring that you most likely don't bring back, but he might also be exactly what Romeo might turn into and so maybe, and that's a gigantic maybe, you do re-sign him and move Romeo for something better.

I cant see GSW giving up a future 1st rd pick (since they can't trade their 2021 FRP) that easy... but something like this may work for all involved:

Celtics in:
Oubre + Chriss (dead salary) + GSW 2022 FRP unprotected

GSW in:
Semi + BOS 2021 FRP top 10 protected ...

I think doing this Danny will have 5 FRPs (or 6 FRPs if he manages to trade Theis for a later year pick for some team on the verge of contending ) next year to trade for a disgruntled star ...  why not both J. Grant and Vucevic 

Why would we do that? It’s likely that we end up giving the best pick in the deal and using a bulk of our TPE to take on a guy we don’t want.

I don't get it either. Oubre is most likely a rental. The Celtics are doing the Warriors a major favor by taking on Oubre's contract and saving themselves $68 million. The trade could be as simple as Oubre and a GSW first(year doesn't matter) for a top 55 protected 2nd round pick. There is simply no reason to make the trade any different than that.

[NKY fan]

I believe the Celtics might be able to grab a first rounder from the Warriors by taking on Kelly Oubre this year to reduce their luxury tax bill by $68 million. Oubre is an expiring that you most likely don't bring back, but he might also be exactly what Romeo might turn into and so maybe, and that's a gigantic maybe, you do re-sign him and move Romeo for something better.

I cant see GSW giving up a future 1st rd pick (since they can't trade their 2021 FRP) that easy... but something like this may work for all involved:

Celtics in:
Oubre + Chriss (dead salary) + GSW 2022 FRP unprotected

GSW in:
Semi + BOS 2021 FRP top 10 protected ...

I think doing this Danny will have 5 FRPs (or 6 FRPs if he manages to trade Theis for a later year pick for some team on the verge of contending ) next year to trade for a disgruntled star ...  why not both J. Grant and Vucevic 

Why would we do that? It’s likely that we end up giving the best pick in the deal and using a bulk of our TPE to take on a guy we don’t want.

I don't get it either. Oubre is most likely a rental. The Celtics are doing the Warriors a major favor by taking on Oubre's contract and saving themselves $68 million. The trade could be as simple as Oubre and a GSW first(year doesn't matter) for a top 55 protected 2nd round pick. There is simply no reason to make the trade any different than that.

2022 is the only available to be traded and that is given we send them an unprotected pick .. because they will not have guaranteed FRP in 2021 and 2022 - two consecutive years.
They also owe a FRP to Memphis starting in 2024.

Unless they unprotect their 2021 pick to OKC and send us the Minnesota second rounder in 2021 (#31)... so it’s not as easy as just getting a FRP from warriors.

Also by now I think most of us agree that we don’t need more rookies coming in next year.

Edit:
MIN FRP becomes unprotected in 2022 so they are guaranteed a pick in either 21 or 22...