Hypothetical: Would You Trade Jaylen Brown for the 2021 1st Overall Pick?

[LilRip]

I’d consider reading Brown in the right package for an established star, not some 19 year old kid.

This.

Yeah, this is sort of where I fall too. We'd be trading Brown for a gamble, where the pick most likely will never be as good as Brown.

Also, the whole "Brown has peaked" thing is absolutely crazy to me. We're talking about a wing who has made almost unforeseen progress with his ball-handling, shooting and playmaking in general, and he's peaked because he has tendonitis?? You can't be serious, tendonitis is not some nail in the coffin

While I generally agree with the rest of your post, you’ve gotta be exaggerating right? Jaylen is a deserving allstar but he’s not some scrub who came out of nowhere and is now an allstar this year. He had a chance (albeit a small one) at becoming one last year. It took him 5 years of solid progress to get where he’s at.

JB is good but let’s pump the brakes a bit on this hype train. His progress isn’t “unforeseen” and it’s not like he’s one of the few #3 picks to play at an allstar level.

When you consider where he was 5 years ago(he was a wing with no handle, no shot and poor decision making/awareness) I do think that his improvement is up there among unlikely leaps for a 19-20 year old prospect in 4-5 years.

I don’t know. I mean, in his draft class alone, you have guys like Murray and Ingram (younger than him), Sabonis (same age) and Siakam (older) who have all turned out well after 5 years of being in the league. And that’s just his draft class alone

I’m not knocking JB’s progress but to call his rise to stardom as “almost unforeseen” is Celtic fan hyperbole.

You know what’s almost unforeseen? IT4, standing 5’9” and drafted 60th, becoming a franchise player and putting up historic numbers during his time with us.

I mean with the exception of Siakam, none of those players were as raw as Brown in their respective skillsets. If Brown's improvement is close to what you'd see of a 'rags to riches' story from raw forwards picked in the late first round then that's really not something that most people can foresee.

Lol now you’re just grasping at straws.
1) the original poster has already said that he phrased it badly
2) if the expectation was that our #3 pick would be performing at par typical to a late first rounder, then either DA is purposefully trying to sabotage this franchise or you’re trying to make something out of nothing

I get that Brown performing at an allstar level was never guaranteed. It’s hard to be an allstar given that they only pick top 20-30 and there are a lot of really good players in the league. But even among the current crop of all stars? He’s not even the “least likely” to be there

I’d say the most surprising one would be Nikola Jokic who was picked in the 2nd round. That’s the outlier more than anything. I mean, not every allstar is a top 10 pick, but as it happens, a bunch of them are. This year alone, the non-top 10 people are Giannis, Kawhi, Joker, Gobert, Donovan Mitchell, Lavine, Vooch, Booker, and Sabonis. That’s 9 out of 27 players selected to the team (replacements included) who weren’t top 10 picks. That number shrinks even more once we expand it to non-lottery, and it shrinks down to 1 player once we expand it to non-1st round.

Brown has shown great improvement but a top 10 pick with elite athleticism and tireless work ethic becoming a productive player and eventually becoming an allstar isnt some mind blowing narrative that we’ve almost never seen before.

[W8ting2McHale]

You know what’s almost unforeseen? IT4, standing 5’9” and drafted 60th, becoming a franchise player and putting up historic numbers during his time with us.

Not to belabor a point, but there was a time when IT was seen as a possible generational talent. I live in Seattle and the talk on IT started early. His name was well known in the city by the time he was 13. Local NBA players and coaches were showing up at his games in Junior High School and saying he was special.

His only fault was that he topped out at 5’9”.

That tempered the expectations but the talent was still there. Look what he managed to do despite being 5’9”. Imagine IT at 6’3” instead. He’s an Iverson or Beal as a floor in all likelihood.

[LilRip]

You know what’s almost unforeseen? IT4, standing 5’9” and drafted 60th, becoming a franchise player and putting up historic numbers during his time with us.

Not to belabor a point, but there was a time when IT was seen as a possible generational talent. I live in Seattle and the talk on IT started early. His name was well known in the city by the time he was 13. Local NBA players and coaches were showing up at his games in Junior High School and saying he was special.

His only fault was that he topped out at 5’9”.

That tempered the expectations but the talent was still there. Look what he managed to do despite being 5’9”. Imagine IT at 6’3” instead. He’s an Iverson or Beal as a floor in all likelihood.

Agreed, if IT was 6’3”, he’d be a monster. He’d be like... James Harden maybe? Perennial MVP candidate, unstoppable on offense, gets to the line a LOT! No way would he be picked 60th

Since were playing the height game, man if Marcus Smart was 6’8”, he’d be an absolute monster too. He’s already a 1st teamer on D but if he was 6’8”, he’d be one of the consistent faves to win DPOY right?

[colincb]

I’d consider reading Brown in the right package for an established star, not some 19 year old kid.

Second this.

[Moranis]

I’m not averse to trading Jaylen Brown. I think he’s closer to Westbrook-impact (great individual player, but won’t lift teams) but he’s such a hot commodity now that we can sell-high on him. That said, I’m not convinced this is the right package. Granted, I don’t know much about Cunningham so take my opinion with a grain of salt. Trading a proven all-star for a rookie sounds like you’re going backwards/rebuilding than moving forward.

Jaylen's way of impacting the game is nothing like Westbrook's?

One of them is a great floor raiser with almost zero ability to raise the ceiling of good teams while the other is a decent floor raiser who's built to raise the ceiling of quality squads looking to get to the next level.

I guess what I meant was: he’s going to be an allstar but he can’t be your best player. Whether his team wins or not, I think he’s got the ability to consistently make a strong case for an allstar bid and get his numbers.

Does that contribute to winning? Sometimes
Does that contribute to losing? I don’t necessarily think so either

He’s in that tier of stars you don’t build around. But he’s still a star. I mean, if he wasn’t, then there’s no chance we could even hypothetically get the #1 pick for him.

Tatum can't be your best player when you're looking for a player to build around by your logic then

Lol sure if that’s your assessment of him. But imo, Tatum is absolutely someone you build around. He already makes guys better by being on the floor, and he’s getting better at it as the season goes on.

I think you can absolutely build around Tatum - your team will just be a second round exit every year unless he has incredible help

FWIW I think of Brown the same way, the only difference is that he's a much better #2, #3 or even #4 (if your team is 2017 GSW level) on high level teams.

Jayson Tatum has 2 ECF appearances in 3 seasons and in those 2 ECF appearances he has been the only Celtic to make an All NBA Team.
 The one year he had a teammate make an All NBA Team, the team lost in the 2nd round.  And Tatum was clearly the best player on last years ECF team.  I really don't understand why you don't like Tatum.  He has very strong advanced metrics and it is clear the team is just so much better with him on the floor then when he is off it (even if he isn't playing well).  He is 22 in his 4th year.  The sky is the limit with Tatum. 

[Somebody]

I’m not averse to trading Jaylen Brown. I think he’s closer to Westbrook-impact (great individual player, but won’t lift teams) but he’s such a hot commodity now that we can sell-high on him. That said, I’m not convinced this is the right package. Granted, I don’t know much about Cunningham so take my opinion with a grain of salt. Trading a proven all-star for a rookie sounds like you’re going backwards/rebuilding than moving forward.

Jaylen's way of impacting the game is nothing like Westbrook's?

One of them is a great floor raiser with almost zero ability to raise the ceiling of good teams while the other is a decent floor raiser who's built to raise the ceiling of quality squads looking to get to the next level.

I guess what I meant was: he’s going to be an allstar but he can’t be your best player. Whether his team wins or not, I think he’s got the ability to consistently make a strong case for an allstar bid and get his numbers.

Does that contribute to winning? Sometimes
Does that contribute to losing? I don’t necessarily think so either

He’s in that tier of stars you don’t build around. But he’s still a star. I mean, if he wasn’t, then there’s no chance we could even hypothetically get the #1 pick for him.

Tatum can't be your best player when you're looking for a player to build around by your logic then

Lol sure if that’s your assessment of him. But imo, Tatum is absolutely someone you build around. He already makes guys better by being on the floor, and he’s getting better at it as the season goes on.

I think you can absolutely build around Tatum - your team will just be a second round exit every year unless he has incredible help

FWIW I think of Brown the same way, the only difference is that he's a much better #2, #3 or even #4 (if your team is 2017 GSW level) on high level teams.

Jayson Tatum has 2 ECF appearances in 3 seasons and in those 2 ECF appearances he has been the only Celtic to make an All NBA Team.
 The one year he had a teammate make an All NBA Team, the team lost in the 2nd round.  And Tatum was clearly the best player on last years ECF team.  I really don't understand why you don't like Tatum.  He has very strong advanced metrics and it is clear the team is just so much better with him on the floor then when he is off it (even if he isn't playing well).  He is 22 in his 4th year.  The sky is the limit with Tatum.

He clearly wasn't even close to being the best player on his first ECF team (Horford was) and Tatum had the incredible help (relative to opponent strength that year) I mentioned in my earlier post in the 2021 postseason: he had two teammates in Brown and Kemba who were playing near an All-Star level, a top 40-50 player in Smart and a very good starting calibre centre in Theis.

I don't dislike Tatum, I think he'll be a very valuable asset to the franchise for the years to come. But he's closer to the likes of Pierce than he is to guys like LeBron/Durant/Kawhi/etc, and to make teambuilding plans around the incredibly slight possibility that he might get closer to the level of the latter group is asinine.

[Moranis]

I’m not averse to trading Jaylen Brown. I think he’s closer to Westbrook-impact (great individual player, but won’t lift teams) but he’s such a hot commodity now that we can sell-high on him. That said, I’m not convinced this is the right package. Granted, I don’t know much about Cunningham so take my opinion with a grain of salt. Trading a proven all-star for a rookie sounds like you’re going backwards/rebuilding than moving forward.

Jaylen's way of impacting the game is nothing like Westbrook's?

One of them is a great floor raiser with almost zero ability to raise the ceiling of good teams while the other is a decent floor raiser who's built to raise the ceiling of quality squads looking to get to the next level.

I guess what I meant was: he’s going to be an allstar but he can’t be your best player. Whether his team wins or not, I think he’s got the ability to consistently make a strong case for an allstar bid and get his numbers.

Does that contribute to winning? Sometimes
Does that contribute to losing? I don’t necessarily think so either

He’s in that tier of stars you don’t build around. But he’s still a star. I mean, if he wasn’t, then there’s no chance we could even hypothetically get the #1 pick for him.

Tatum can't be your best player when you're looking for a player to build around by your logic then

Lol sure if that’s your assessment of him. But imo, Tatum is absolutely someone you build around. He already makes guys better by being on the floor, and he’s getting better at it as the season goes on.

I think you can absolutely build around Tatum - your team will just be a second round exit every year unless he has incredible help

FWIW I think of Brown the same way, the only difference is that he's a much better #2, #3 or even #4 (if your team is 2017 GSW level) on high level teams.

Jayson Tatum has 2 ECF appearances in 3 seasons and in those 2 ECF appearances he has been the only Celtic to make an All NBA Team.
 The one year he had a teammate make an All NBA Team, the team lost in the 2nd round.  And Tatum was clearly the best player on last years ECF team.  I really don't understand why you don't like Tatum.  He has very strong advanced metrics and it is clear the team is just so much better with him on the floor then when he is off it (even if he isn't playing well).  He is 22 in his 4th year.  The sky is the limit with Tatum.

He clearly wasn't even close to being the best player on his first ECF team (Horford was) and Tatum had the incredible help (relative to opponent strength that year) I mentioned in my earlier post in the 2021 postseason: he had two teammates in Brown and Kemba who were playing near an All-Star level, a top 40-50 player in Smart and a very good starting calibre centre in Theis.

I don't dislike Tatum, I think he'll be a very valuable asset to the franchise for the years to come. But he's closer to the likes of Pierce than he is to guys like LeBron/Durant/Kawhi/etc, and to make teambuilding plans around the incredibly slight possibility that he might get closer to the level of the latter group is asinine.

That isn't incredible help.  Lots of teams have far greater help than that and don't do as well.   The Bucks and Sixers for example, have a better player at the top (Giannis and Embiid are clearly better than Tatum), better help (Middleton/Bledsoe/Lopez, etc. and Simmons/Harris/Richardson, etc.), and haven't had the success Boston has had with Tatum.  If Tatum is what you say he is, there is no way the Celtics make the ECF last year and may not even get out of the 1st round. 

Tatum has a much higher arc than Pierce as he is a better player in year 4 than Pierce was in year 4. More balanced offensively and a better defender (Pierce got better defensively as he aged, but was mostly a steal vulture early on).  I'd take Tatum over Pierce 100 times out of a 100 times.  Wouldn't give it a second thought and that is with knowing how Pierce turned out and Tatum being an unknown.  Tatum has consistent MVP potential, Pierce was never that sort of player. 

[boscel33]

I'm a huge JB fan and have been since he was at Cal.  I was one of the few calling for the C's to draft him at 3.  I don't think I trade him for the #1 overall.  We're too far down this path to start over.  He and JT are about a year apart in age and contracts are similar.  They should be growing together and waiting for the third piece, where ever that may come from.  Me, I think it's coming from Beal in a year give or take as after next year, he has a player option and like Hayward, Washington might do well to do a S&T.  Imagine a BB at 2, JB at 3, JT at 4.  Sweet!

[wdleehi]

So if the Celtics trade Brown for a draft pick the follow-up questions is who do you trade Tatum for?


If the Celtics trade away Brown, then they are rebuilding.   If they are rebuilding, stars entering their prime will want out.