The Kemba dillema (Hayward all over again?)

[radiohead]

When Hayward came back from his major injury, there were rumblings that the team’s chemistry took a hit when Brad started “force feeding” Hayward minutes in order to get him back to speed. In the process, the team lost some games and frustrations started to show. Clearly Hayward wasn’t himself then and it showed in his play. There were unsubstantiated claims that players were upset.

Now, it seems that Brad is trying to do the same thing with Kemba. It wasn’t too long ago that the Celtics were playing beautiful basketball, to the point that some people were already suggesting several “trade Kemba” scenarios.

The Celtics are arguably at their lowest point right now and it’s pretty obvious that there’s something wrong with the team’s chemistry - JT’s lackluster play last game, JB trying to do things by himself, etc. It’s still early and certainly there’s a lot of time to right the ship, but the circumstances look very similar to what happened before. Let’s hope the Cs find their way soon, because this team has the talent to compete as shown in the first few games of the season. JT/JB/Kemba is a formidable trio on paper. Brad just needs to find a way to make them mesh. 

[Vermont Green]

Jayson Tatum didn't play between Jan 8 and Jan 25.  This is a total of 8 games, 3 postponed and 5 just missed.  He has not looked like his normal self since returning.

As to Kemba, I am OK with them forcing him some minutes if that is what you want to call it and I suspect the entire team understands this as well.  The team is a lot better if you have Kemba playing well.  I don't see this as an issue or something that is going to divide the locker room or anything like that.  I suspect they are all rooting for Kemba.

So the result of this is a team where 2 of the top 3 players are on the court trying to find their game.  Tatum will likely find his game and then some soon enough.  Kemba may not.  There is plenty to be concerned about with Kemba.

The biggest thing I saw with Gordon Hayward was that he was not able to string games together as before the injury.  He would have some good games where he would flash his full arsenal but then revert back for a game or two.  I am seeing that with Kemba now.  Hayward never did really play out of that, let's see if Kemba can.

[Goldstar88]

Jayson Tatum didn't play between Jan 8 and Jan 25.  This is a total of 8 games, 3 postponed and 5 just missed.  He has not looked like his normal self since returning.

As to Kemba, I am OK with them forcing him some minutes if that is what you want to call it and I suspect the entire team understands this as well.  The team is a lot better if you have Kemba playing well.  I don't see this as an issue or something that is going to divide the locker room or anything like that.  I suspect they are all rooting for Kemba.

So the result of this is a team where 2 of the top 3 players are on the court trying to find their game.  Tatum will likely find his game and then some soon enough.  Kemba may not.  There is plenty to be concerned about with Kemba.

The biggest thing I saw with Gordon Hayward was that he was not able to string games together as before the injury.  He would have some good games where he would flash his full arsenal but then revert back for a game or two.  I am seeing that with Kemba now.  Hayward never did really play out of that, let's see if Kemba can.

Agreed. Only difference is when Gordon was having a poor shooting night, he could still contribute with his passing, rebounding and reasonable defense. Kemba doesn’t do any of those things. If he’s not shooting well, the team is more than likely going to lose the game.

[td450]

The team is a lot better if you have Kemba playing well.

You are basing that judgement on a team that no longer exists from last year. That team had four guys who could create their own offense and could supply 80% of the teams points when they all played. Kemba got to do the one thing he is elite at, which is to operate as a scorer. No point guard required.

This team has two guys who can create their own offense, with Kemba attempting to provide a 3rd and struggling. The remainder of the team must make up for points missed, and the strategy of picking up the crumbs won't cover the increased load, especially since the two most productive offensive role players, Wanamaker and Kanter, are gone.

Anything that worked before is interesting, but mostly irrelevant. The team is different, and Kemba is different. We need ball movement and a passer/creator.

A real point guard, if you will.

The only other alternative is to reconstruct last year's dynamic and find a highly complimentary 4th scorer, someone who adds without subtracting, like Hayward did. Even then, we will never know if peak Kemba would have been able to contribute effectively to a team with him as a 3rd or 4th option instead of him operating as sharing the 1st option.

I doubt he will ever fit the new version of this team, although I hope I'm wrong

[Smartacus]

I am standing on the deck of the SS Kemba in proud defiance of the detractors with belief he will return to form and once again become a dynamic player for this team. We're taking on water now but the ship has not sunk.

I respect anyone who differs from this opinion but I have not strayed. Sometimes it takes time for players to regain their form after serious injuries and Kemba has never had to deal with that in his career. He needs in-game reps to regain his touch and feel for the game. It is a slow and arduous process that take patience but I believe that he will get there.

This team need's Smart back. Maybe we have something with Romeo Langford(I believe we do). Let's hope DA can find a player with the TPE. When Kemba, Brown, and Tatum are once again surrounded by talent the rhythm will return and the shots will fall.

One thing I do not think this team needs is a panic trade when Kemba's value has never been lower for someone like a Lonzo Ball. Stay the course. The tides will turn.

[celticbos]

Kemba has always been a volume shooter, move him to 6th man and let him be that, it will benefit the offense and him better. Use Theis as a PF in big lineup and either Semi or G Williams as small ball PF. If this doesn't work, then we need to find the answer to the frontcourt.

[wdleehi]

Other difference:  Besides Hayward the following players deserved minutes that year: Tatum, Brown, Smart, Morris, Rozier. 

Besides Kemba, who deserves minutes?  Pritchard (of course), Teague (no), Waters (no)

[Vermont Green]

The team is a lot better if you have Kemba playing well.

You are basing that judgement on a team that no longer exists from last year. That team had four guys who could create their own offense and could supply 80% of the teams points when they all played. Kemba got to do the one thing he is elite at, which is to operate as a scorer. No point guard required.

This team has two guys who can create their own offense, with Kemba attempting to provide a 3rd and struggling. The remainder of the team must make up for points missed, and the strategy of picking up the crumbs won't cover the increased load, especially since the two most productive offensive role players, Wanamaker and Kanter, are gone.

Anything that worked before is interesting, but mostly irrelevant. The team is different, and Kemba is different. We need ball movement and a passer/creator.

A real point guard, if you will.

The only other alternative is to reconstruct last year's dynamic and find a highly complimentary 4th scorer, someone who adds without subtracting, like Hayward did. Even then, we will never know if peak Kemba would have been able to contribute effectively to a team with him as a 3rd or 4th option instead of him operating as sharing the 1st option.

I doubt he will ever fit the new version of this team, although I hope I'm wrong

Not sure I follow the point.  If anything, not having Hayward here amplifies the impact of Kemba not playing well.  If Hayward had a bad night, you had Kemba, Brown, or Tatum to pick up the slack, and to some extent Smart.  Now this season, if Kemba has a bad night, it is all on Brown and Tatum.  And since Tatum has come back from COVID, it is really all on Brown.  Even having Smart would help spread the load or provide more diversity.

So I guess my point is if Kemba continues at this level, Tatum doesn't fully recover from Covid, and Smart is injured the rest of the year, then yes, the Celtics are in trouble.  But if Tatum comes back, along with Smart, we can overcome some level of ups and downs with Kemba.  The more ups with Kemba, the better we will be though.  That seems pretty obvious.

[nickagneta]

Kemba has been excellent in 3 of the last 5 games, including the last 2. He doesn't appear to be physically hampered in any way from his knee arthritis. He is stopping, cutting, and bursting forward, as well as he ever has.

He sucked for the first 7 games but that was his training camp and preseason equivalent. I fully expect him to look more like the Kemba of the last two games than what he showed his first 5-7 games of the season.

[Goldstar88]

Kemba has been excellent in 3 of the last 5 games, including the last 2. He doesn't appear to be physically hampered in any way from his knee arthritis. He is stopping, cutting, and bursting forward, as well as he ever has.

He sucked for the first 7 games but that was his training camp and preseason equivalent. I fully expect him to look more like the Kemba of the last two games than what he showed his first 5-7 games of the season.

Last game he did shoot the ball better, but he was still bad defensively, had 2 assist to 5 turnovers and was a -19.

The game that he played in before that was probably his best game. Problem is, he has 1 good game and then 3 bad ones.

[GreenEnvy]

Who is he shafting to “force feeding” Kemba minutes? Teague? Edwards? Pritchard is still getting his minutes. So was Smart before his injury.

The difference with Hayward was the likes of Brown, Morris, and Rozier were all seemingly making noise. Those were “proven” guys and/or vets looking to get paid.

The Hayward thing was unfortunate. It was a poor example of leadership and an extremely poor collection of personalities put into a locker room trying to compete for a championship. Had Hayward not gotten injured, the 2018 playoffs go differently (maybe same end result, but still different) and then the 2018-19 season isn’t a complete circus.

[nickagneta]

Kemba has been excellent in 3 of the last 5 games, including the last 2. He doesn't appear to be physically hampered in any way from his knee arthritis. He is stopping, cutting, and bursting forward, as well as he ever has.

He sucked for the first 7 games but that was his training camp and preseason equivalent. I fully expect him to look more like the Kemba of the last two games than what he showed his first 5-7 games of the season.

Last game he did shoot the ball better, but he was still bad defensively, had 2 assist to 5 turnovers and was a -19.

The game that he played in before that was probably his best game. Problem is, he has 1 good game and then 3 bad ones.

Really am not seeing the bad defense that some claim Kemba has been having over the last couple weeks. I wonder if it's just the old stand by "he's little and so must be bad on defense" stance some have.

Against PGs, his defense is good. Nothing spectacular, but he makes most PGs work hard. Yes, when he gets switched onto bigger players, it's a bad matchup, but that's true of half to three quarters of the PGs in the league.

And, Kemba draws a bunch of charges, gets a bunch of deflections and steals. IMO, Kemba's defense is fine in the regular season. It's in the playoffs where he is targeted exclusively in the half court, that his limitations are most seen. But if Kemba is his usual self on offense, he is still a net positive player.

[td450]

The team is a lot better if you have Kemba playing well.

You are basing that judgement on a team that no longer exists from last year. That team had four guys who could create their own offense and could supply 80% of the teams points when they all played. Kemba got to do the one thing he is elite at, which is to operate as a scorer. No point guard required.

This team has two guys who can create their own offense, with Kemba attempting to provide a 3rd and struggling. The remainder of the team must make up for points missed, and the strategy of picking up the crumbs won't cover the increased load, especially since the two most productive offensive role players, Wanamaker and Kanter, are gone.

Anything that worked before is interesting, but mostly irrelevant. The team is different, and Kemba is different. We need ball movement and a passer/creator.

A real point guard, if you will.

The only other alternative is to reconstruct last year's dynamic and find a highly complimentary 4th scorer, someone who adds without subtracting, like Hayward did. Even then, we will never know if peak Kemba would have been able to contribute effectively to a team with him as a 3rd or 4th option instead of him operating as sharing the 1st option.

I doubt he will ever fit the new version of this team, although I hope I'm wrong

Not sure I follow the point.  If anything, not having Hayward here amplifies the impact of Kemba not playing well.  If Hayward had a bad night, you had Kemba, Brown, or Tatum to pick up the slack, and to some extent Smart.  Now this season, if Kemba has a bad night, it is all on Brown and Tatum.  And since Tatum has come back from COVID, it is really all on Brown.  Even having Smart would help spread the load or provide more diversity.

So I guess my point is if Kemba continues at this level, Tatum doesn't fully recover from Covid, and Smart is injured the rest of the year, then yes, the Celtics are in trouble.  But if Tatum comes back, along with Smart, we can overcome some level of ups and downs with Kemba.  The more ups with Kemba, the better we will be though.  That seems pretty obvious.

My point is that this year we need more of a playmaker, someone who makes it easier for others to score.

He can be exactly like he was at his best, and of course that will help, but it won't change the fact that this year, the other rotation players will struggle without a playmaker. Last year was a unique team, but that's gone. Kemba will never be a quality playmaker. He's a scorer.

[Vermont Green]

The team is a lot better if you have Kemba playing well.

You are basing that judgement on a team that no longer exists from last year. That team had four guys who could create their own offense and could supply 80% of the teams points when they all played. Kemba got to do the one thing he is elite at, which is to operate as a scorer. No point guard required.

This team has two guys who can create their own offense, with Kemba attempting to provide a 3rd and struggling. The remainder of the team must make up for points missed, and the strategy of picking up the crumbs won't cover the increased load, especially since the two most productive offensive role players, Wanamaker and Kanter, are gone.

Anything that worked before is interesting, but mostly irrelevant. The team is different, and Kemba is different. We need ball movement and a passer/creator.

A real point guard, if you will.

The only other alternative is to reconstruct last year's dynamic and find a highly complimentary 4th scorer, someone who adds without subtracting, like Hayward did. Even then, we will never know if peak Kemba would have been able to contribute effectively to a team with him as a 3rd or 4th option instead of him operating as sharing the 1st option.

I doubt he will ever fit the new version of this team, although I hope I'm wrong

Not sure I follow the point.  If anything, not having Hayward here amplifies the impact of Kemba not playing well.  If Hayward had a bad night, you had Kemba, Brown, or Tatum to pick up the slack, and to some extent Smart.  Now this season, if Kemba has a bad night, it is all on Brown and Tatum.  And since Tatum has come back from COVID, it is really all on Brown.  Even having Smart would help spread the load or provide more diversity.

So I guess my point is if Kemba continues at this level, Tatum doesn't fully recover from Covid, and Smart is injured the rest of the year, then yes, the Celtics are in trouble.  But if Tatum comes back, along with Smart, we can overcome some level of ups and downs with Kemba.  The more ups with Kemba, the better we will be though.  That seems pretty obvious.

My point is that this year we need more of a playmaker, someone who makes it easier for others to score.

He can be exactly like he was at his best, and of course that will help, but it won't change the fact that this year, the other rotation players will struggle without a playmaker. Last year was a unique team, but that's gone. Kemba will never be a quality playmaker. He's a scorer.

So I guess your point is that Kemba needs to make up for the "playmaking"  that we lost with Hayward.  And by "playmaking" you mean specifically the type of playmaking where a traditional PG sets up others.  I can see that to a point but playmaking is also creating for yourself and we lost some of that with Hayward too.

My counter to that is that the type of "creating" that Kemba does when he is on this game results in both.  He is more of a shoot first PG but that still creates things for others, forces doubles, creates switches.  I am fine with Kemba just being Kemba, that will create or playmake plenty.  And the better he does it, the better the team.

If he wants to adjust his game and try to pass more and shoot less (or shoot more efficiently) that is even better.  But I don't think Tatum and Brown are necessarily going to struggle if he doesn't.  We were 8-3 and cruising at the start of the season without Kemba doing any playmaking at all (he didn't play) and the rest of the team didn't struggle.

Kemba came right out and said that he doesn't want Tatum and Brown to adjust their game to play with him, he will adjust his game to play with them.  These 3 are all good players.  If we have them all healthy and playing well, I am not the least bit worried about who has to adjust.  I just first want to see them all playing at their best and that has not happened.  The best we had were Brown and Tatum at their best and with that we went 8-3.

[Goldstar88]

Kemba has been excellent in 3 of the last 5 games, including the last 2. He doesn't appear to be physically hampered in any way from his knee arthritis. He is stopping, cutting, and bursting forward, as well as he ever has.

He sucked for the first 7 games but that was his training camp and preseason equivalent. I fully expect him to look more like the Kemba of the last two games than what he showed his first 5-7 games of the season.

Last game he did shoot the ball better, but he was still bad defensively, had 2 assist to 5 turnovers and was a -19.

The game that he played in before that was probably his best game. Problem is, he has 1 good game and then 3 bad ones.

Really am not seeing the bad defense that some claim Kemba has been having over the last couple weeks. I wonder if it's just the old stand by "he's little and so must be bad on defense" stance some have.

Against PGs, his defense is good. Nothing spectacular, but he makes most PGs work hard. Yes, when he gets switched onto bigger players, it's a bad matchup, but that's true of half to three quarters of the PGs in the league.

And, Kemba draws a bunch of charges, gets a bunch of deflections and steals. IMO, Kemba's defense is fine in the regular season. It's in the playoffs where he is targeted exclusively in the half court, that his limitations are most seen. But if Kemba is his usual self on offense, he is still a net positive player.

Least he beat out Waters. 81 out of 84 Point Guards for worst defensive rating.

2020-21 Real Plus-Minus - Point Guards

RK   NAME   TEAM   GP   MPG    ORPM   DRPM   RPM   WINS
81   Kemba Walker   BOS   12   27.8    1.66           -2.34   -0.68

82   Tremont Waters   BOS    9   10.0    -1.80   -2.35   -4.16   

83   Ja Morant          MEM 14   29.9     3.03   -2.46   0.57   

84   Trae Young   ATL   25   34.6     4.58   -2.70   1.88

84 Results3 of 3
Glossary

DRPM: Player's estimated on-court impact on team defensive performance, measured in points allowed per 100 defensive possessions


http://www.espn.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/page/3/sort/DRPM/position/1