The Hayward S&T: Missed Opportunity? (Merged)

[footey]

Against the Philadelphia 76ers:

Myles Turner (1/6 FGA) 9pts/5reb in 29 minutes and fouled out........only it wasn't against Joel Embiid (injury/illness), but it was Dwight Howard who dominated 11pts/15reb (12 free throws) in 23 minutes.

Doug McDermott (4/6 FGA) 8pts/5reb in 21 minutes and also fouled out.

Not a great night for Turner, but he has thoroughly outplayed every one of our big men this year.  And for whatever it’s worth, D12 made one FG and had four points when guarded by Turner.

And is there anyone who wouldn’t take McDermott’s eight points in five rebounds on a below average night?  His quiet night is more than any of our bench players average.

Man you love keeping this thread of yours going. Myles Turner has an awful night, time to re-post how much better the Celtics would be with Myles Turner right now, over their other centers.  Too much snow your way??

I responded to a comment from earlier today.  I’m not sure that your contribution added a lot?

Fair enough. 

What do the ## show when you compare Turner this season to either Theis or Rob Williams on a 36 min basis? I bet Turner is not as dominant as you imagine.  I have no idea, just my gut here.

For example, Rob's PER this season is 25.6.  Turner's is 18.3.  Thoroughly outplayed?

Just checked Per 36:

15.7 ppg Turner, 14.4 ppg Rob W
4.3 blocks Turner, 3.6 blocks Rob W
7.5 rebounds Turner, 8.6 rebounds Rob W
FG% 503 Turner, .750 Rob Williams

Besides 3 point shooting (which we already get from Theis, and isn't that great from Turner, low 30's), how exactly is Turner thoroughly outplaying Rob Williams this season?

[Moranis]

Against the Philadelphia 76ers:

Myles Turner (1/6 FGA) 9pts/5reb in 29 minutes and fouled out........only it wasn't against Joel Embiid (injury/illness), but it was Dwight Howard who dominated 11pts/15reb (12 free throws) in 23 minutes.

Doug McDermott (4/6 FGA) 8pts/5reb in 21 minutes and also fouled out.

Not a great night for Turner, but he has thoroughly outplayed every one of our big men this year.  And for whatever it’s worth, D12 made one FG and had four points when guarded by Turner.

And is there anyone who wouldn’t take McDermott’s eight points in five rebounds on a below average night?  His quiet night is more than any of our bench players average.

Man you love keeping this thread of yours going. Myles Turner has an awful night, time to re-post how much better the Celtics would be with Myles Turner right now, over their other centers.  Too much snow your way??

I responded to a comment from earlier today.  I’m not sure that your contribution added a lot?

Fair enough. 

What do the ## show when you compare Turner this season to either Theis or Rob Williams on a 36 min basis? I bet Turner is not as dominant as you imagine.  I have no idea, just my gut here.

For example, Rob's PER this season is 25.6.  Turner's is 18.3.  Thoroughly outplayed?

Just checked Per 36:

15.7 ppg Turner, 14.4 ppg Rob W
4.3 blocks Turner, 3.6 blocks Rob W
7.5 rebounds Turner, 8.6 rebounds Rob W
FG% 503 Turner, .750 Rob Williams

Besides 3 point shooting (which we already get from Theis, and isn't that great from Turner, low 30's), how exactly is Turner thoroughly outplaying Rob Williams this season?

Turner is playing more than double the minutes as a starter. You can't reasonably use per minute numbers when the players are playing vastly different minutes and roles.  It just doesn't work.  And if Williams could actually produce those numbers playing as a starter and starter level minutes, then he would actually be doing it. 

[NKY fan]

Against the Philadelphia 76ers:

Myles Turner (1/6 FGA) 9pts/5reb in 29 minutes and fouled out........only it wasn't against Joel Embiid (injury/illness), but it was Dwight Howard who dominated 11pts/15reb (12 free throws) in 23 minutes.

Doug McDermott (4/6 FGA) 8pts/5reb in 21 minutes and also fouled out.

Not a great night for Turner, but he has thoroughly outplayed every one of our big men this year.  And for whatever it’s worth, D12 made one FG and had four points when guarded by Turner.

And is there anyone who wouldn’t take McDermott’s eight points in five rebounds on a below average night?  His quiet night is more than any of our bench players average.

Man you love keeping this thread of yours going. Myles Turner has an awful night, time to re-post how much better the Celtics would be with Myles Turner right now, over their other centers.  Too much snow your way??

I responded to a comment from earlier today.  I’m not sure that your contribution added a lot?

Fair enough. 

What do the ## show when you compare Turner this season to either Theis or Rob Williams on a 36 min basis? I bet Turner is not as dominant as you imagine.  I have no idea, just my gut here.

For example, Rob's PER this season is 25.6.  Turner's is 18.3.  Thoroughly outplayed?

Just checked Per 36:

15.7 ppg Turner, 14.4 ppg Rob W
4.3 blocks Turner, 3.6 blocks Rob W
7.5 rebounds Turner, 8.6 rebounds Rob W
FG% 503 Turner, .750 Rob Williams

Besides 3 point shooting (which we already get from Theis, and isn't that great from Turner, low 30's), how exactly is Turner thoroughly outplaying Rob Williams this season?

We’ll minutes per game are a big indicator of someone’s performance. Also Turner plays along a very dominant all star center and has to cover for his defensive shortcomings.
Timelord is being played in short minutes here and there to keep his efficiency up. Play him too much and he starts scoring own baskets and assists to opposing team under our rim. Theis has been better lately but he also scored own basket lol.
Anyway if you can play Timelord for 30 mpg and he doesn’t commit those mistakes plus rotates properly there is a legit argument that Turner is not outplaying Timelord but so far this season it’s ridiculous to argue who’s been the better player.

[Roy H.]

Against the Philadelphia 76ers:

Myles Turner (1/6 FGA) 9pts/5reb in 29 minutes and fouled out........only it wasn't against Joel Embiid (injury/illness), but it was Dwight Howard who dominated 11pts/15reb (12 free throws) in 23 minutes.

Doug McDermott (4/6 FGA) 8pts/5reb in 21 minutes and also fouled out.

Not a great night for Turner, but he has thoroughly outplayed every one of our big men this year.  And for whatever it’s worth, D12 made one FG and had four points when guarded by Turner.

And is there anyone who wouldn’t take McDermott’s eight points in five rebounds on a below average night?  His quiet night is more than any of our bench players average.

Man you love keeping this thread of yours going. Myles Turner has an awful night, time to re-post how much better the Celtics would be with Myles Turner right now, over their other centers.  Too much snow your way??

I responded to a comment from earlier today.  I’m not sure that your contribution added a lot?

Fair enough. 

What do the ## show when you compare Turner this season to either Theis or Rob Williams on a 36 min basis? I bet Turner is not as dominant as you imagine.  I have no idea, just my gut here.

For example, Rob's PER this season is 25.6.  Turner's is 18.3.  Thoroughly outplayed?

Just checked Per 36:

15.7 ppg Turner, 14.4 ppg Rob W
4.3 blocks Turner, 3.6 blocks Rob W
7.5 rebounds Turner, 8.6 rebounds Rob W
FG% 503 Turner, .750 Rob Williams

Besides 3 point shooting (which we already get from Theis, and isn't that great from Turner, low 30's), how exactly is Turner thoroughly outplaying Rob Williams this season?

Turner is doing it in starter’s minutes.  Williams is playing 15 mpg off the bench.

Rate stats are tricky.  Mo Bamba has scored more points per possession this year than Luka, Curry and Tatum.

[footey]

Against the Philadelphia 76ers:

Myles Turner (1/6 FGA) 9pts/5reb in 29 minutes and fouled out........only it wasn't against Joel Embiid (injury/illness), but it was Dwight Howard who dominated 11pts/15reb (12 free throws) in 23 minutes.

Doug McDermott (4/6 FGA) 8pts/5reb in 21 minutes and also fouled out.

Not a great night for Turner, but he has thoroughly outplayed every one of our big men this year.  And for whatever it’s worth, D12 made one FG and had four points when guarded by Turner.

And is there anyone who wouldn’t take McDermott’s eight points in five rebounds on a below average night?  His quiet night is more than any of our bench players average.

Man you love keeping this thread of yours going. Myles Turner has an awful night, time to re-post how much better the Celtics would be with Myles Turner right now, over their other centers.  Too much snow your way??

I responded to a comment from earlier today.  I’m not sure that your contribution added a lot?

Fair enough. 

What do the ## show when you compare Turner this season to either Theis or Rob Williams on a 36 min basis? I bet Turner is not as dominant as you imagine.  I have no idea, just my gut here.

For example, Rob's PER this season is 25.6.  Turner's is 18.3.  Thoroughly outplayed?

Just checked Per 36:

15.7 ppg Turner, 14.4 ppg Rob W
4.3 blocks Turner, 3.6 blocks Rob W
7.5 rebounds Turner, 8.6 rebounds Rob W
FG% 503 Turner, .750 Rob Williams

Besides 3 point shooting (which we already get from Theis, and isn't that great from Turner, low 30's), how exactly is Turner thoroughly outplaying Rob Williams this season?

Turner is playing more than double the minutes as a starter. You can't reasonably use per minute numbers when the players are playing vastly different minutes and roles.  It just doesn't work.  And if Williams could actually produce those numbers playing as a starter and starter level minutes, then he would actually be doing it.

Says who?  You need to model to account for their respective minutes.   Comparing stats without accounting for minutes is pretty silly.

Williams is starting to get more minutes because he is playing better.  He is essentially a 2nd year player due to freak injuries first two seasons.  Put another way, it is far more likely that Williams will be getting a lot better the next several seasons than Myles Turner. 

[Wretch]

Against the Philadelphia 76ers:

Myles Turner (1/6 FGA) 9pts/5reb in 29 minutes and fouled out........only it wasn't against Joel Embiid (injury/illness), but it was Dwight Howard who dominated 11pts/15reb (12 free throws) in 23 minutes.

Doug McDermott (4/6 FGA) 8pts/5reb in 21 minutes and also fouled out.

Not a great night for Turner, but he has thoroughly outplayed every one of our big men this year.  And for whatever it’s worth, D12 made one FG and had four points when guarded by Turner.

And is there anyone who wouldn’t take McDermott’s eight points in five rebounds on a below average night?  His quiet night is more than any of our bench players average.

Man you love keeping this thread of yours going. Myles Turner has an awful night, time to re-post how much better the Celtics would be with Myles Turner right now, over their other centers.  Too much snow your way??

I responded to a comment from earlier today.  I’m not sure that your contribution added a lot?

Fair enough. 

What do the ## show when you compare Turner this season to either Theis or Rob Williams on a 36 min basis? I bet Turner is not as dominant as you imagine.  I have no idea, just my gut here.

For example, Rob's PER this season is 25.6.  Turner's is 18.3.  Thoroughly outplayed?

Just checked Per 36:

15.7 ppg Turner, 14.4 ppg Rob W
4.3 blocks Turner, 3.6 blocks Rob W
7.5 rebounds Turner, 8.6 rebounds Rob W
FG% 503 Turner, .750 Rob Williams

Besides 3 point shooting (which we already get from Theis, and isn't that great from Turner, low 30's), how exactly is Turner thoroughly outplaying Rob Williams this season?

Turner is doing it in starter’s minutes.  Williams is playing 15 mpg off the bench.

Rate stats are tricky.  Mo Bamba has scored more points per possession this year than Luka, Curry and Tatum.

Using PER as a the data point for simplicity:
RW3: 25.6 in 17.4 MP/g, $2m
Theis: 17.1 in 23.2 MP/g, $5m
TT: 11.4 in 22.2 MP/g, $9.2m

Turner: 18.3 in 32.4 MP/g, $18m

Similar production from the position for less money both short and long term.  Looks like good roster construction to me.

Miles Turner is a good NBA player but his production on the court isn't worth $18m on the Cs.  DA has invested in the wings and PG and because of that they look at the big positions as places to save resources through value contracts for role players. 

Despite the recency bias Kemba is still a good player.

[footey]

Against the Philadelphia 76ers:

Myles Turner (1/6 FGA) 9pts/5reb in 29 minutes and fouled out........only it wasn't against Joel Embiid (injury/illness), but it was Dwight Howard who dominated 11pts/15reb (12 free throws) in 23 minutes.

Doug McDermott (4/6 FGA) 8pts/5reb in 21 minutes and also fouled out.

Not a great night for Turner, but he has thoroughly outplayed every one of our big men this year.  And for whatever it’s worth, D12 made one FG and had four points when guarded by Turner.

And is there anyone who wouldn’t take McDermott’s eight points in five rebounds on a below average night?  His quiet night is more than any of our bench players average.

Man you love keeping this thread of yours going. Myles Turner has an awful night, time to re-post how much better the Celtics would be with Myles Turner right now, over their other centers.  Too much snow your way??

I responded to a comment from earlier today.  I’m not sure that your contribution added a lot?

Fair enough. 

What do the ## show when you compare Turner this season to either Theis or Rob Williams on a 36 min basis? I bet Turner is not as dominant as you imagine.  I have no idea, just my gut here.

For example, Rob's PER this season is 25.6.  Turner's is 18.3.  Thoroughly outplayed?

Just checked Per 36:

15.7 ppg Turner, 14.4 ppg Rob W
4.3 blocks Turner, 3.6 blocks Rob W
7.5 rebounds Turner, 8.6 rebounds Rob W
FG% 503 Turner, .750 Rob Williams

Besides 3 point shooting (which we already get from Theis, and isn't that great from Turner, low 30's), how exactly is Turner thoroughly outplaying Rob Williams this season?

Turner is doing it in starter’s minutes.  Williams is playing 15 mpg off the bench.

Rate stats are tricky.  Mo Bamba has scored more points per possession this year than Luka, Curry and Tatum.

Using PER as a the data point for simplicity:
RW3: 25.6 in 17.4 MP/g, $2m
Theis: 17.1 in 23.2 MP/g, $5m
TT: 11.4 in 22.2 MP/g, $9.2m

Turner: 18.3 in 32.4 MP/g, $18m

Similar production from the position for less money both short and long term.  Looks like good roster construction to me.

Miles Turner is a good NBA player but his production on the court isn't worth $18m on the Cs.  DA has invested in the wings and PG and because of that they look at the big positions as places to save resources through value contracts for role players. 

Despite the recency bias Kemba is still a good player.

Thanks.

I think the mistake Celtics made was signing TT. I acknowledge that. That doesn't mean that, therefore, they should have signed Myles Turner. Based on PER and $$, having Theis and R Williams fill the center minutes is far wiser than bringing in Turner on his $20 mm contract.  Only to be LESS productive at the center position.

[keevsnick]

I think Turner has been clearly more valuable than what we have at center based mostly off his defense impact. Here's an article from a couple weeks ago discussing it:

https://www.thescore.com/nba/news/2087264

To summarize Turner contests in the restricted area than anybody, hold players to a ridiculous low shooting percentage in the paint, blocks more shots than anybody just about EVER, is a steal machine, has been amazing at containing guys in the pick and roll, forces teams to take more mid rangers and might be in poll position for DPOY thus far. The Pacers are a dramatically better defensive team with him on/off, with him on they have a 104.8 defensive rating which is the same as the #1 Defense Lakers. 

That compares to a 108.9 Celtics defensive rating as a whole. R Williams actually inst bad with a 105.6 rating but he plays almost exclusively against other bench units while Turner is a starter. Turner also pretty clearly has lesser defensive personnel around him. Brogdon is good but he may be the only above average defender on that roster. Yet his impact is still tremendous.

[NKY fan]

Against the Philadelphia 76ers:

Myles Turner (1/6 FGA) 9pts/5reb in 29 minutes and fouled out........only it wasn't against Joel Embiid (injury/illness), but it was Dwight Howard who dominated 11pts/15reb (12 free throws) in 23 minutes.

Doug McDermott (4/6 FGA) 8pts/5reb in 21 minutes and also fouled out.

Not a great night for Turner, but he has thoroughly outplayed every one of our big men this year.  And for whatever it’s worth, D12 made one FG and had four points when guarded by Turner.

And is there anyone who wouldn’t take McDermott’s eight points in five rebounds on a below average night?  His quiet night is more than any of our bench players average.

Man you love keeping this thread of yours going. Myles Turner has an awful night, time to re-post how much better the Celtics would be with Myles Turner right now, over their other centers.  Too much snow your way??

I responded to a comment from earlier today.  I’m not sure that your contribution added a lot?

Fair enough. 

What do the ## show when you compare Turner this season to either Theis or Rob Williams on a 36 min basis? I bet Turner is not as dominant as you imagine.  I have no idea, just my gut here.

For example, Rob's PER this season is 25.6.  Turner's is 18.3.  Thoroughly outplayed?

Just checked Per 36:

15.7 ppg Turner, 14.4 ppg Rob W
4.3 blocks Turner, 3.6 blocks Rob W
7.5 rebounds Turner, 8.6 rebounds Rob W
FG% 503 Turner, .750 Rob Williams

Besides 3 point shooting (which we already get from Theis, and isn't that great from Turner, low 30's), how exactly is Turner thoroughly outplaying Rob Williams this season?

Turner is doing it in starter’s minutes.  Williams is playing 15 mpg off the bench.

Rate stats are tricky.  Mo Bamba has scored more points per possession this year than Luka, Curry and Tatum.

Using PER as a the data point for simplicity:
RW3: 25.6 in 17.4 MP/g, $2m
Theis: 17.1 in 23.2 MP/g, $5m
TT: 11.4 in 22.2 MP/g, $9.2m

Turner: 18.3 in 32.4 MP/g, $18m

Similar production from the position for less money both short and long term.  Looks like good roster construction to me.

Miles Turner is a good NBA player but his production on the court isn't worth $18m on the Cs.  DA has invested in the wings and PG and because of that they look at the big positions as places to save resources through value contracts for role players. 

Despite the recency bias Kemba is still a good player.

Thanks.

I think the mistake Celtics made was signing TT. I acknowledge that. That doesn't mean that, therefore, they should have signed Myles Turner. Based on PER and $$, having Theis and R Williams fill the center minutes is far wiser than bringing in Turner on his $20 mm contract.  Only to be LESS productive at the center position.

I’m not sure why you get into the pitfall of price per production. Given our current salary structures we can’t compete for the title without goign deep into luxury tax. Let’s not worry who makes what $$ or otherwise we will never win a title or even get to the nba finals. Worrying about overpaying made Danny let great to decent players go and over pay average to horrible players which is the much worse outcome.

[Vermont Green]

I think Turner has been clearly more valuable than what we have at center based mostly off his defense impact. Here's an article from a couple weeks ago discussing it:

https://www.thescore.com/nba/news/2087264

To summarize Turner contests in the restricted area than anybody, hold players to a riduclosuylyu low shooting percentage in the paint, blocks more shots than anybody just about EVER, is a steal machine, has been amazing at containing guys in the pick and roll, forces teams to take more mid rangers and might be in poll position for DPOY thus far. The Pacers are a dramatically better defensive team with him on/off.

Meanwhile putting aside Theis/R Williams blocks per game the C's interior defense just hasn't been able to slow anybody down. Even if you believe the raw production for the C's centers vs Turner is similar the impact on the defensive side of the ball is pretty clearly in Turner's favor. The Celtics as a WHOLE have a 108.9 defensive rating. Myles Turner has a 104.8 Defensive rating. So when he's on the floor the PACERS are basically the best defense in the league (same rating as #1 Lakers) largely because of him.

I have not studied the numbers but I think it is silly to try and argue that Robert Williams is better than or even as good as Miles Turner.  Turner is better than any of our bigs.  I think he gets paid more than all our bigs combined too.  But that doesn't mean that we missed out on the trade.  Turner is playing better than ever.  Thompson is coming off an injury and Teague has been inconsistent.  Plus we have to see what is done with the TPE.  If we don't get anything with the TPE, then it will be fair to say that not using the TPE is a missed opportunity.

To be honest, when the Indy deal fell through, I was disappointed.  I would have been fine if we ended up with Turner.  When we signed Thompson and Teague, I got over the disappointment quickly.  I am not that worried about any of this.

[gouki88]

Gotta love this thread. Myles Turner is rebounding at a career-low rate, scoring at the second worst rate of his career (behind last year), fouling at the second highest rate in his career (behind his rookie year), shooting the 3 at his second lowest % ever (behind his rookie year) on his most attempts ever, and is getting assists at his second worst rate ever (behind, once more, only his rookie year).

But because he's block hunting in a way that would make Hassan Whiteside proud, we've suddenly missed out on the second coming of Dikembe? Not so sure about that.
In fact, this season from Turner is very very reminiscent of that season from Whiteside for my mind. Elite defensive stats (Whiteside was literally double the rebounder Turner is though), and not much offence.

[RodyTur10]

Gotta love this thread. Myles Turner is rebounding at a career-low rate, scoring at the second worst rate of his career (behind last year), fouling at the second highest rate in his career (behind his rookie year), shooting the 3 at his second lowest % ever (behind his rookie year) on his most attempts ever, and is getting assists at his second worst rate ever (behind, once more, only his rookie year).

But because he's block hunting in a way that would make Hassan Whiteside proud, we've suddenly missed out on the second coming of Dikembe? Not so sure about that.
In fact, this season from Turner is very very reminiscent of that season from Whiteside for my mind. Elite defensive stats (Whiteside was literally double the rebounder Turner is though), and not much offence.

Turner is a DPOY candidate. That's something Whiteside never was.
His impact on the defensive end for the Pacers is Gobertesque.

I agree that Turner is limited as an offensive player, but he does shoot threes and a big that can stretch the floor is a high commodity.

[NKY fan]

Gotta love this thread. Myles Turner is rebounding at a career-low rate, scoring at the second worst rate of his career (behind last year), fouling at the second highest rate in his career (behind his rookie year), shooting the 3 at his second lowest % ever (behind his rookie year) on his most attempts ever, and is getting assists at his second worst rate ever (behind, once more, only his rookie year).

But because he's block hunting in a way that would make Hassan Whiteside proud, we've suddenly missed out on the second coming of Dikembe? Not so sure about that.
In fact, this season from Turner is very very reminiscent of that season from Whiteside for my mind. Elite defensive stats (Whiteside was literally double the rebounder Turner is though), and not much offence.

So you’re saying that Ainge passing on Turner , McDermott and protected pick so he can sign Teague and Tristan was the right decision? That’s the impression I got lol

[gouki88]

Gotta love this thread. Myles Turner is rebounding at a career-low rate, scoring at the second worst rate of his career (behind last year), fouling at the second highest rate in his career (behind his rookie year), shooting the 3 at his second lowest % ever (behind his rookie year) on his most attempts ever, and is getting assists at his second worst rate ever (behind, once more, only his rookie year).

But because he's block hunting in a way that would make Hassan Whiteside proud, we've suddenly missed out on the second coming of Dikembe? Not so sure about that.
In fact, this season from Turner is very very reminiscent of that season from Whiteside for my mind. Elite defensive stats (Whiteside was literally double the rebounder Turner is though), and not much offence.

Turner is a DPOY candidate. That's something Whiteside never was.
His impact on the defensive end for the Pacers is Gobertesque.

I agree that Turner is limited as an offensive player, but he does shoot threes and a big that can stretch the floor is a high commodity.

Is that why Whiteside was on the All-Defensive team in 2015-16? Which is probably what Turner will be too, given how quickly Turner's defence is cooling off already since his two inactive games.

Gotta love this thread. Myles Turner is rebounding at a career-low rate, scoring at the second worst rate of his career (behind last year), fouling at the second highest rate in his career (behind his rookie year), shooting the 3 at his second lowest % ever (behind his rookie year) on his most attempts ever, and is getting assists at his second worst rate ever (behind, once more, only his rookie year).

But because he's block hunting in a way that would make Hassan Whiteside proud, we've suddenly missed out on the second coming of Dikembe? Not so sure about that.
In fact, this season from Turner is very very reminiscent of that season from Whiteside for my mind. Elite defensive stats (Whiteside was literally double the rebounder Turner is though), and not much offence.

So you’re saying that Ainge passing on Turner , McDermott and protected pick so he can sign Teague and Tristan was the right decision? That’s the impression I got lol

No, I'm not. I'm saying Turner isn't the second coming of Christ

[Roy H.]

I'm saying Turner isn't the second coming of Christ

Sounds like a strawman.