Woj: Giannis’ Decision Based On Chance To Win, Not Market Size

[jambr380]

Its tough for him because there are 4 clear cut options that have a greater path to a championship than Milwaukee.

Dallas
Miami
Toronto
Golden State

All of those except for maybe Toronto are better roster fits than Milwaukee and even Toronto has the Euro city feel to it and a top 3-5 President of Basketball Operations.

Dallas has the best running mate in Luka and a big in KP that can go to war with him in the post and stretch defenders from behind the arc.

Miami has Bam and Jimmy Butler(I've heard they'd have to lose Hero to acquire Giannis). Proven championship level toughness with decent skill position players like Dragic.

Finally GS. You just look at what they were when they had Durant. If they can soft reset this year and Klay can ever find his way back its hard not to view them as a greater option than Milwaukee.

I think he finds his way to Dallas or Toronto when all is said and done.

If he truly wants to win, its pretty complicated. Dallas is the only situation that really works, because Luka is on a rookie contract, and you could have just those two, give up anything else you have to and then they can rebuild around them easily. Everyone else will have to do some things to get him there that will hurt. Miami doesn't fit well. GS doesn't fit well. Toronto hasn't got a better situation than Milwaukee.

I suppose we might have an outside shot, but Dallas seems to have the best situation.

If he wants a dynasty he just waits and goes to Dallas.

GSW is the only team that would have to give anything up to get him.

Toronto, Miami, and Dallas could all sign him with cap space (Dallas would have to move Maxi or Powell I think).

Miami and Toronto would lose some cap holds but to sign Giannis you do it.

Miami would have Butler, Bam, Herro under contract  and add Giannis.

Toronto would have Van Vleet, Pascal, and possibly Powell. Lowry they’d need to resign after renouncing.

Dallas would have Luka, Zinger, Richardson (after opting in).

I think any of the above give him a chance to win a title. Dallas, Miami, Toronto in that order. Still think he stays with the Bucks though.

Yes but the cap holds that Miami and Toronto are actually good players.  Obviously Giannis is better and they'd do it without question, but they aren't just adding Giannis to the teams that were in the playoffs last year.  Toronto in particular would have to give up Lowry and I don't actually think a Siakam/VanVleet duo is better than what Giannis has in Milwaukee.  Bam and Butler make 65 million or so next year, Herro is another 4 alone.  That really starts eating up cap space and the useful roster.

Miami could offer Giannis around 28-29M next year assuming they keep Butler, Herro, Bam, Robinson and Nunn .. the latter two only have a $2m cap hold so it’s worth keeping them especially Robinson ... Dallas can easily clear space to sign Giannis and keep their core ... both states offer no income tax so they do sound like the best option for him....
another theoretical (and realistic unlike the Knicks and such ) landing spot is the Thunder.
What they can do is : trade for a star not on a max deal ( like Beal ) for 3-4 draft picks... then sign Giannis to the max and then trade Horford , SGA and 4/5 or more draft picks for a third star on a max contract - like harden or someone else that Giannis want ... kinda like Kawhi and the clippers last year.. the only difference is that the thunder have the draft assets to afford those moves ... if someone can pull this off Presti should be up to the task.

TP for the Thunder mention. Honestly, they should one of the top potential landing spots for Giannis. They can already outright sign him next season with cap space. They have so many picks and so much flexibility, along with a young 'star' in Shai, and they could overpay for anybody they wanted in a trade. The Kawhi example is a good one, because overpaying for George got the Clips Kawhi, so that was totally worth it in the end (regardless of results).

I do hope he sticks it out in MIL, though. It provides better balance and it is always nice to see a superstar remain loyal to their original team (when that team tries to build around him).

[DefenseWinsChamps]

The Celtics will give Giannis as good a chance to win it all as any team that can viably get him right now.

Great coach. Creative front office. Multiple other stars.

A three-way deal that sent Walker to the Bulls for Lavine and Young, and then flipped Lavine to the Bucks with several young prospects, future firsts, and pick swaps, would possibly interest all teams. I also wonder if the Bucks might want to immediately flip Holiday back to another team and recuperate some draft assets.

The Bulls wanted Walker for his culture-changing work ethic and personality.

The Bucks need a young fringe all-star with prospects and picks.

The Celtics move ahead with a core of Smart-Brown-Tatum-Giannis. They'd have the best core of any team in the NBA. And they'd have four guys that project to be loyal and want to stay in Boston a long time.

[moiso]

My money is on Dallas.

Bam and Giannis an awkward fit in Miami.

Dallas and Miami would both be fun but both have potential issues.  I'm not sure if how much Giannis is ready to sacrifice in terms of scoring.  I'm sure Doncic isn't ready to take a step back yet so I could see this team having issues with who the alpha is and who is controlling the ball and taking the shots.  Giannis is great at so many things other than shooting, I think this combination would work best if Giannis would be happy scoring in the low-mid 20's rather than trying to score 30 every night. 

In Miami, there would be spacing issues with Adebayo but I think everything else would fall into place better.  Butler has been fine sacrificing and Bam has a game that is great without really needing the ball.  The defensive potential of this team would be off the charts.

[Ogaju]

So...Lakers, Nets, Clippers basically.

But...can we get Giannis without losing Tatum and Brown? I'll be happy to gut anyone else from the team though.

you  really do not have much else!

[RJ87]

The Celtics will give Giannis as good a chance to win it all as any team that can viably get him right now.

Great coach. Creative front office. Multiple other stars.

A three-way deal that sent Walker to the Bulls for Lavine and Young, and then flipped Lavine to the Bucks with several young prospects, future firsts, and pick swaps, would possibly interest all teams. I also wonder if the Bucks might want to immediately flip Holiday back to another team and recuperate some draft assets.

The Bulls wanted Walker for his culture-changing work ethic and personality.

The Bucks need a young fringe all-star with prospects and picks.

The Celtics move ahead with a core of Smart-Brown-Tatum-Giannis. They'd have the best core of any team in the NBA. And they'd have four guys that project to be loyal and want to stay in Boston a long time.

We're not getting a 26 year old MVP and all we're giving up is an injured point guard. That's a bad trade for everyone but the Celtics.

If you want a guy like Giannis, you have to give up actual value. The trade would likely cost us at least Jaylen (I'd have no problem with that at all) and maybe Smart plus picks.

[DefenseWinsChamps]

The Celtics will give Giannis as good a chance to win it all as any team that can viably get him right now.

Great coach. Creative front office. Multiple other stars.

A three-way deal that sent Walker to the Bulls for Lavine and Young, and then flipped Lavine to the Bucks with several young prospects, future firsts, and pick swaps, would possibly interest all teams. I also wonder if the Bucks might want to immediately flip Holiday back to another team and recuperate some draft assets.

The Bulls wanted Walker for his culture-changing work ethic and personality.

The Bucks need a young fringe all-star with prospects and picks.

The Celtics move ahead with a core of Smart-Brown-Tatum-Giannis. They'd have the best core of any team in the NBA. And they'd have four guys that project to be loyal and want to stay in Boston a long time.

We're not getting a 26 year old MVP and all we're giving up is an injured point guard. That's a bad trade for everyone but the Celtics.

If you want a guy like Giannis, you have to give up actual value. The trade would likely cost us at least Jaylen (I'd have no problem with that at all) and maybe Smart plus picks.

Couple things about that. Walker is a starting all-star point guard, not just an injured point guard. He projects to be back to normal early this season. He would have been back at the beginning of the season if the NBA didn't move up the start of the season. All the injury talk right now by Celtic fans is a bit overblown.

Also, why isn't anyone talking about Giannis' knees the same way they are talking about Walker's? He had some under-the-radar problems last year with his quickness and he couldn't even finish the playoffs. Giannis may be younger, but he is also much taller which puts additional stress on his legs. He also relies as much as anyone on his athleticism.

Also, the Bulls were rumored to be interested in Walker this off-season, and the price appeared to be Lavine OR a high-level prospect (WCJ or Markennan) with salary for Walker. Ainge walked away. The Bulls would probably do that trade.

Also, we are not only giving up an all-star point guard. We are also giving up multiple firsts and prospects to refill their draft cupboard.

I'm of the opinion that franchises normally have particular tastes when trading for a superstar, and sometimes those tastes are very unlike what the fans think. The Bucks would want an all-star or fringe all-star with tons of prospects and draft capital. Lavine does fit that mold and would probably keep attendance at the same level as a player like Brown might.

When you throw in a player like Rob Williams who would keep fan interest with his dunks and blocks, along with Nesmith or Langford and whatever future firsts they want, that's a pretty strong package for small-market franchise.

[NKY fan]

So...Lakers, Nets, Clippers basically.

But...can we get Giannis without losing Tatum and Brown? I'll be happy to gut anyone else from the team though.

you  really do not have much else!

Well Danny can trade Kemba for expirings at the deadline if he thinks he has a shot at Giannis.
Tristan may decide to go for a bigger deal elsewhere if he plays well and we reach EC SF or further ...
If 2 of Grant , Timelord, Romeo , Pritchard and Nesmith show us they are worth keeping ( my money is on Grant and Pritchard)....
Then we can enter the offseason with:
Tatum, Smart, Brown and two players on rookie deals. That will give us $33-34 of space. I might be off by a million so we may need to keep just one of the young players but it’s worth the sacrifice.

Depending on the moves Danny makes, after the 2021 draft we may own all of our future picks and have one or two additional picks from other teams. This way we can improve by trading for veteran help in the future ...
This could be enough to entice Giannis ... especially if our young stars improve this season.

[jambr380]

The Celtics will give Giannis as good a chance to win it all as any team that can viably get him right now.

Great coach. Creative front office. Multiple other stars.

A three-way deal that sent Walker to the Bulls for Lavine and Young, and then flipped Lavine to the Bucks with several young prospects, future firsts, and pick swaps, would possibly interest all teams. I also wonder if the Bucks might want to immediately flip Holiday back to another team and recuperate some draft assets.

The Bulls wanted Walker for his culture-changing work ethic and personality.

The Bucks need a young fringe all-star with prospects and picks.

The Celtics move ahead with a core of Smart-Brown-Tatum-Giannis. They'd have the best core of any team in the NBA. And they'd have four guys that project to be loyal and want to stay in Boston a long time.

We're not getting a 26 year old MVP and all we're giving up is an injured point guard. That's a bad trade for everyone but the Celtics.

If you want a guy like Giannis, you have to give up actual value. The trade would likely cost us at least Jaylen (I'd have no problem with that at all) and maybe Smart plus picks.

Couple things about that. Walker is a starting all-star point guard, not just an injured point guard. He projects to be back to normal early this season. He would have been back at the beginning of the season if the NBA didn't move up the start of the season. All the injury talk right now by Celtic fans is a bit overblown.

Also, why isn't anyone talking about Giannis' knees the same way they are talking about Walker's? He had some under-the-radar problems last year with his quickness and he couldn't even finish the playoffs. Giannis may be younger, but he is also much taller which puts additional stress on his legs. He also relies as much as anyone on his athleticism.

Also, the Bulls were rumored to be interested in Walker this off-season, and the price appeared to be Lavine OR a high-level prospect (WCJ or Markennan) with salary for Walker. Ainge walked away. The Bulls would probably do that trade.

Also, we are not only giving up an all-star point guard. We are also giving up multiple firsts and prospects to refill their draft cupboard.

I'm of the opinion that franchises normally have particular tastes when trading for a superstar, and sometimes those tastes are very unlike what the fans think. The Bucks would want an all-star or fringe all-star with tons of prospects and draft capital. Lavine does fit that mold and would probably keep attendance at the same level as a player like Brown might.

When you throw in a player like Rob Williams who would keep fan interest with his dunks and blocks, along with Nesmith or Langford and whatever future firsts they want, that's a pretty strong package for small-market franchise.

It's possible, but unlikely. The Bucks would have to be really high on Lavine and I'm just not sure that's the case. If you're a Cs fan, you should be more than happy to give up Brown/Smart/picks for Giannis, but only if agrees to sign an extension. Giannis, Tatum, and Kemba would be an absolutely devastating trio. Fwiw, I believe that Kemba still has star power and that he will prove that, but his value couldn't be any lower than it is right now.

If the deal is Brown/Smart/picks or no deal at all because nobody has real interest in Kemba, you do the deal and figure out the rest later. Also, this is coming from somebody whose favorite player on the team is Jaylen Brown. I mentioned earlier that I wouldn't include him in a deal for Harden, but for Giannis you have to do it.

[RJ87]

The Celtics will give Giannis as good a chance to win it all as any team that can viably get him right now.

Great coach. Creative front office. Multiple other stars.

A three-way deal that sent Walker to the Bulls for Lavine and Young, and then flipped Lavine to the Bucks with several young prospects, future firsts, and pick swaps, would possibly interest all teams. I also wonder if the Bucks might want to immediately flip Holiday back to another team and recuperate some draft assets.

The Bulls wanted Walker for his culture-changing work ethic and personality.

The Bucks need a young fringe all-star with prospects and picks.

The Celtics move ahead with a core of Smart-Brown-Tatum-Giannis. They'd have the best core of any team in the NBA. And they'd have four guys that project to be loyal and want to stay in Boston a long time.

We're not getting a 26 year old MVP and all we're giving up is an injured point guard. That's a bad trade for everyone but the Celtics.

If you want a guy like Giannis, you have to give up actual value. The trade would likely cost us at least Jaylen (I'd have no problem with that at all) and maybe Smart plus picks.

Couple things about that. Walker is a starting all-star point guard, not just an injured point guard. He projects to be back to normal early this season. He would have been back at the beginning of the season if the NBA didn't move up the start of the season. All the injury talk right now by Celtic fans is a bit overblown.

It's really not overblown at all though. The stem cell injection may not even work. We hope it does, but its not a sure thing. And even if it does, its a stopgap. There's no definitive treatment for degenerative knee arthritis.

I've worked in sports medicine/physical therapy for years - behind the scenes but I get to pick physical therapists' minds all the time. Its concerning that he had all that down time during the shutdown and rest and conservative treatment didn't work. He has a history of meniscus tears and repairs and we don't know how much cartilage is left in that knee. Its more likely that this is going to be an issue that he has to manage for the rest of his career than it is that he's magically cured.

[Birdman]

No player has stayed in Milwaukee..he is a goner