Author Topic: Transition of Power - All Things Presidential Thread  (Read 72363 times)

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Re: Election Day Thread
« Reply #45 on: November 02, 2020, 09:52:15 PM »

Offline Roy H.

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It’s scary, but this is a plausible outcome.  If Trump wins PA but loses Arizona and traditionally blue states, the second district in Maine could earn him a tie (if Nebraska’s Omaha District stays red).
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Re: Election Day Thread
« Reply #46 on: November 02, 2020, 10:01:02 PM »

Offline Roy H.

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Looking at that map, I think Trump is going to win this.  I think he’ll pull it out in PA, and will hold Arizona.

My vote will be going to Jorgensen.  Mission accomplished with the USSC appointments, now I can vote my conscience.
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Re: Election Day Thread
« Reply #47 on: November 02, 2020, 10:07:30 PM »

Offline KGs Knee

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So I'm just over here begging for a tie between 'Senile' Joe and 'Racist' Don.  Then when that tie can't be resolved they'll just agree to give it to 'The Good' Jo and we can have our first female President.  We can all rejoice with lower taxes and welcoming home our soldiers.

Re: Election Day Thread
« Reply #48 on: November 02, 2020, 10:18:15 PM »

Offline action781

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Looking at that map, I think Trump is going to win this.  I think he’ll pull it out in PA, and will hold Arizona.

My vote will be going to Jorgensen.  Mission accomplished with the USSC appointments, now I can vote my conscience.

You live in Maine, right Roy?  So you get to rank your choices?  So you can vote Jorgensen first and then if no candidate has a majority, she'll likely get eliminated and your vote won't be wasted and can still count for Trump.  I look forward to the day I get to share the luxury of living in an RCV state.

I'm a big Jorgensen fan myself and plan to vote for her as well.
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Re: Election Day Thread
« Reply #49 on: November 02, 2020, 10:27:00 PM »

Offline Ogaju

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I'm one of those people who always believed that Biden was the Democrats best chance of beating Trump.  Sanders might have been able to do it in 2016, but probable not in 2020.  IMO Harris, Warren, and everyone else didn't stand a legitimate chance - none of them could win back the important Midwest states and rebuild the "blue wall".  I voted for Biden in the primary out in here in California based on this hypothesis and I'm anxious to see if I was right.

So what are the odds that the election is actually called on Tuesday night? 50%? 30%?

Close to zero if Trump is ahead.  If Biden has a lead in Michigan and Pennsylvania tonight, though, I expect that things will be called.

I expect Trump to have the early lead in Pennsylvania.  My understanding is that in some counties the in-person votes will be counted first and then mail-in ballots thereafter.  If the ballots aren't counted timely enough then Trump will declare an early victory there while the mail ballots are still being counted.

I'm keeping my eyes on North Carolina which will likely have its results on election night.  I doubt Biden will win NC, but if he does then it very likely marks the beginning of the end for Trump.

that is his problem isnt it? There are just so many cannot lose for him - AZ, GA, NC, FL, PA, where he is behind in the polls. He has put up a legendary fight, but time will tell what the overall strategy of the blitz is.

Re: Election Day Thread
« Reply #50 on: November 02, 2020, 10:30:04 PM »

Offline hpantazo

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It’s scary, but this is a plausible outcome.  If Trump wins PA but loses Arizona and traditionally blue states, the second district in Maine could earn him a tie (if Nebraska’s Omaha District stays red).


Why don't more states divide electoral votes by districts like Maine does?

Re: Election Day Thread
« Reply #51 on: November 02, 2020, 10:30:44 PM »

Offline SparzWizard

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I'm one of those people who always believed that Biden was the Democrats best chance of beating Trump.  Sanders might have been able to do it in 2016, but probable not in 2020.  IMO Harris, Warren, and everyone else didn't stand a legitimate chance - none of them could win back the important Midwest states and rebuild the "blue wall".  I voted for Biden in the primary out in here in California based on this hypothesis and I'm anxious to see if I was right.

So what are the odds that the election is actually called on Tuesday night? 50%? 30%?

Close to zero if Trump is ahead.  If Biden has a lead in Michigan and Pennsylvania tonight, though, I expect that things will be called.

I expect Trump to have the early lead in Pennsylvania.  My understanding is that in some counties the in-person votes will be counted first and then mail-in ballots thereafter.  If the ballots aren't counted timely enough then Trump will declare an early victory there while the mail ballots are still being counted.

I'm keeping my eyes on North Carolina which will likely have its results on election night.  I doubt Biden will win NC, but if he does then it very likely marks the beginning of the end for Trump.

that is his problem isnt it? There are just so many cannot lose for him - AZ, GA, NC, FL, PA, where he is behind in the polls. He has put up a legendary fight, but time will tell what the overall strategy of the blitz is.

Biden wins Florida and/or NC and the election game will be over, hopefully.

Re: Election Day Thread
« Reply #52 on: November 02, 2020, 10:36:29 PM »

Offline Roy H.

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It’s scary, but this is a plausible outcome.  If Trump wins PA but loses Arizona and traditionally blue states, the second district in Maine could earn him a tie (if Nebraska’s Omaha District stays red).


Why don't more states divide electoral votes by districts like Maine does?

I’m not sure.  PA considered it a few years back, when they had a GOP legislature but seemed like a safe blue Presidential state.  They ultimately decided against it.

My guess is that states like California and Texas have no desire to change, because it would only give electoral votes to the “other side”.  Purple states perhaps feel like they’d get less attention if candidates felt like they could ignore them because they’d be worth less.

But, it’s just a better system.  I live in a swing district in a blue state, and feel like my vote “counts”.
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Re: Election Day Thread
« Reply #53 on: November 02, 2020, 10:51:19 PM »

Offline Roy H.

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Looking at that map, I think Trump is going to win this.  I think he’ll pull it out in PA, and will hold Arizona.

My vote will be going to Jorgensen.  Mission accomplished with the USSC appointments, now I can vote my conscience.

You live in Maine, right Roy?  So you get to rank your choices?  So you can vote Jorgensen first and then if no candidate has a majority, she'll likely get eliminated and your vote won't be wasted and can still count for Trump.  I look forward to the day I get to share the luxury of living in an RCV state.

I'm a big Jorgensen fan myself and plan to vote for her as well.

I’m not a fan of ranked choice, actually.  This year, I won’t be ranking choices.  I just can’t have my vote go to either major party candidate. 
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Re: Election Day Thread
« Reply #54 on: November 02, 2020, 11:38:11 PM »

Offline tarheelsxxiii

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What are your thoughts about the tweet posted today by Josh Shapiro, the AG of Pennsylvania?

"If all the votes are added up in PA, Trump is going to lose. That's why he's working overtime to subtract as many votes as possible from this process.

For the record, he's 0-6 against us in court. We've protected voting rights. Now, ignore the noise - vote!"


Oof. Just noticed that I can't post images as in the past - has something changed?

Re: Election Day Thread
« Reply #55 on: November 03, 2020, 01:53:21 AM »

Offline ozgod

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What are your thoughts about the tweet posted today by Josh Shapiro, the AG of Pennsylvania?

"If all the votes are added up in PA, Trump is going to lose. That's why he's working overtime to subtract as many votes as possible from this process.

For the record, he's 0-6 against us in court. We've protected voting rights. Now, ignore the noise - vote!"


Oof. Just noticed that I can't post images as in the past - has something changed?

Images or tweets? Like this?



If you quote my post you will see how I linked to the tweet.
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Re: Election Day Thread
« Reply #56 on: November 03, 2020, 07:13:00 AM »

Offline JohnBoy65

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It’s scary, but this is a plausible outcome.  If Trump wins PA but loses Arizona and traditionally blue states, the second district in Maine could earn him a tie (if Nebraska’s Omaha District stays red).

I don't know Roy. Right now the 'coinflip' states are: Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, North Carolina, Arizona, Georgia, and Texas. I just don't think Trump can flip a coin 7 times and get heads all 7 times. People forget one of the reason's Hillary lost was because of Michigan and Wisconsin. Joe has those locked up just about. I can't imagine Joe Biden, a more popular candidate than Hillary, losing all of those swing states.

Re: Election Day Thread
« Reply #57 on: November 03, 2020, 07:31:58 AM »

Offline BitterJim

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It’s scary, but this is a plausible outcome.  If Trump wins PA but loses Arizona and traditionally blue states, the second district in Maine could earn him a tie (if Nebraska’s Omaha District stays red).

I don't know Roy. Right now the 'coinflip' states are: Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, North Carolina, Arizona, Georgia, and Texas. I just don't think Trump can flip a coin 7 times and get heads all 7 times. People forget one of the reason's Hillary lost was because of Michigan and Wisconsin. Joe has those locked up just about. I can't imagine Joe Biden, a more popular candidate than Hillary, losing all of those swing states.

The thing is, winning one "coin flip" would mean that it's more likely he wins the others, since it would mean that polls underrated his support again. I don't think it's likely, but it's certainly more likely than 1 in 128 (which is still worryingly high)
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Re: Election Day Thread
« Reply #58 on: November 03, 2020, 07:38:22 AM »

Offline chicagoceltic

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It’s scary, but this is a plausible outcome.  If Trump wins PA but loses Arizona and traditionally blue states, the second district in Maine could earn him a tie (if Nebraska’s Omaha District stays red).

I don't know Roy. Right now the 'coinflip' states are: Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, North Carolina, Arizona, Georgia, and Texas. I just don't think Trump can flip a coin 7 times and get heads all 7 times. People forget one of the reason's Hillary lost was because of Michigan and Wisconsin. Joe has those locked up just about. I can't imagine Joe Biden, a more popular candidate than Hillary, losing all of those swing states.

The thing is, winning one "coin flip" would mean that it's more likely he wins the others, since it would mean that polls underrated his support again. I don't think it's likely, but it's certainly more likely than 1 in 128 (which is still worryingly high)
I very well may be wrong but I have more faith in the polls this year because I do not believe there are nearly as many shy Trump voters as there were in 2016. For as much as his followers like to talk about being the "silent majority" they are not so silent. His win has embolden his supporters so I expect the polls are more accurate this time around. For the sake of our country I hope I am right.
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Re: Election Day Thread
« Reply #59 on: November 03, 2020, 07:46:17 AM »

Offline BitterJim

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It’s scary, but this is a plausible outcome.  If Trump wins PA but loses Arizona and traditionally blue states, the second district in Maine could earn him a tie (if Nebraska’s Omaha District stays red).


Why don't more states divide electoral votes by districts like Maine does?

Because deciding to do so instantly reduces your state's impact on the election. Even though people as a whole would be better represented if every state voted by district, all it would take is one state choosing to lump all of their votes together to give them a huge political advantage. So unless you can get every state to agree to do that, you'll have a hard time getting any states to do it (especially big states)
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