Poll: How confident are you the Dems will win the popular vote again?

[coco]

Since 1992 the Dems have won the popular vote in every election but one (Busch 2nd term).

I think it’s likely to happen again.

What say you?

[Donoghus]

Popular vote.  Absolutely.

Electoral College.  Pretty good odds.

[ozgod]

Since 1992 the Dems have won the popular vote in every election but one (Busch 2nd term).

I think it’s likely to happen again.

What say you?

Pretty confident. All those people living in cities add up. They're just not as proportionally represented in the electoral college.

[jambr380]

538 has Biden with something like a 96% chance of winning the popular vote. There is a good chance he wins the election, too, but the latter is something that shouldn't matter at all. One person, one vote. Not 3.5 votes in Wyoming to Californians 1 vote.

[coco]

538 has Biden with something like a 96% chance of winning the popular vote. There is a good chance he wins the election, too, but the latter is something that shouldn't matter at all. One person, one vote. Not 3.5 votes in Wyoming to Californians 1 vote.

True.
I wonder if the forefathers envisioned a situation where minority rules.  I’ll go out on a limb and say no...

[KGs Knee]

I mean, if you can win 30 or more states you should win.  That's more important than total raw votes when you consider this is a republic.

If you don't want this to be a republic anymore and want to eliminate the states get enough support to change the constitution.  Or stop congregating in the same places and spread out.  Crying endlessly about it does you no good.

[Roy H.]

538 has Biden with something like a 96% chance of winning the popular vote. There is a good chance he wins the election, too, but the latter is something that shouldn't matter at all. One person, one vote. Not 3.5 votes in Wyoming to Californians 1 vote.

True.
I wonder if the forefathers envisioned a situation where minority rules.  I’ll go out on a limb and say no...

Of course they envisioned it.  They debated it, and decided on a balance of population versus states’ rights.  They didn’t want Virginia making decisions for the entire country.

If they wanted straight majority rule, that’s what the Constitution would say.  I mean, in the very first election where popular vote was recorded (1824), the “winner” of the popular vote lost the election.  And nobody cared, because it was irrelevant.  There was no majority in the Electoral College, so the vote went to the House, where John Quincy Adams was elected despite losing the popular vote by 10+ percentage points.

[tstorey_97]

In the United States the political center elects the president.

Democrats and Republicans have less input in a presidential election than any other type of campaign.

About 30% of the people who vote are considered the center, they are either independents ir they are registered dems or reps they just "switch" to the other party's candidate for their own reasons.

These are the people who "elect" the US president. Don't believe me, look at the two party's tactics during the process. Your democratic candidate will play to the left and extreme left as that is how you win primaries with hard core party delegates.
The Republican will kiss rightist and fundamentalist religious butt for the primaries and then?

Both presidential candidates will run "to the center" like their lives depended on it....because they do.

Biden: "Do I look like a communist?"

The center elected Trump as Clinton was the wrong choice by the party...she appealed to "party" democrats, but the center disliked her so much Trump won. Whose fault was that? They let a TV star with mental problems win the office? Then you blame your problems on him? You put him there. Clinton couldn't even beat Sanders she was such a weak candidate.

A viable democratic candidate must appeal to the center because that's who picks the winner.

Will Trump beat Biden? I simply can't see how. If you study the electorate's perception of each man it isn't that hard to figure out.

Trump is imbalanced and unpredictable.

Biden is "old Joe" our long term VP who has a smile for everyone.

Cheez, even the oil people and the market traders are ok with Biden.

You follow pro sports and you don't follow the US presidential race odds in London?

At Betfair yesterday a guy walked in and put $500,000 on Biden. (largest bet on a president at Betfair ever)

The payout? - $775,000 (I don't know where the euro key is)

It may not be the Chiefs giving the Jets 19 1/2 in the NFL, but, 1.5 is a significant favorite.

[chicagoceltic]

I mean, if you can win 30 or more states you should win.  That's more important than total raw votes when you consider this is a republic.

If you don't want this to be a republic anymore and want to eliminate the states get enough support to change the constitution.  Or stop congregating in the same places and spread out.  Crying endlessly about it does you no good.

I would love to ditch the electoral college and go one person, one vote but it simply will not happen because states whose votes count more will never vote to give up that advantage. We are stuck with this system.

[SparzWizard]

Electoral college vote is stupid. If I live in a blue-heavy state and I wanna vote blue, my vote won't even matter. No point in voting lol. Your vote is only important if you live in swing states.

[keevsnick]

538 has Biden with something like a 96% chance of winning the popular vote. There is a good chance he wins the election, too, but the latter is something that shouldn't matter at all. One person, one vote. Not 3.5 votes in Wyoming to Californians 1 vote.

True.
I wonder if the forefathers envisioned a situation where minority rules.  I’ll go out on a limb and say no...

Of course they envisioned it.  They debated it, and decided on a balance of population versus states’ rights.  They didn’t want Virginia making decisions for the entire country.

If they wanted straight majority rule, that’s what the Constitution would say.  I mean, in the very first election where popular vote was recorded (1824), the “winner” of the popular vote lost the election.  And nobody cared, because it was irrelevant.  There was no majority in the Electoral College, so the vote went to the House, where John Quincy Adams was elected despite losing the popular vote by 10+ percentage points.

The bigger question is this: Why should we care what they thought? They also thought women should be subservient  and African Americans literally were property. They had a lot of good ideas about freedom an democracy, but it may be time to update out thinking.

Its not 1776, the electoral college needs to go.

[Sophomore]

I mean, if you can win 30 or more states you should win.  That's more important than total raw votes when you consider this is a republic.

If you don't want this to be a republic anymore and want to eliminate the states get enough support to change the constitution.  Or stop congregating in the same places and spread out.  Crying endlessly about it does you no good.

You realize that North and South Dakota were added as separate states, rather than 1 for the purpose of enhancing Republican power in the senate? Being a “republic” had nothing to do with it. It was raw power politics. Politicians like to choose their voters when they can, instead of the other way round.

I get that it’s all fun and games when it helps your side. But don’t pretend that there’s some principle at stake.

[Roy H.]

Electoral college vote is stupid. If I live in a blue-heavy state and I wanna vote blue, my vote won't even matter. No point in voting lol. Your vote is only important if you live in swing states.

I’m enjoying my Second District Maine vote.  We’ve had two visits by Trump, one by Pence, one by Jill Biden (today) and another by Harris’ husband.  My kids have seen Air Force One, Marine One, presidential motorcades, members of the Secret Service, and the probable future First Lady, and my son got to see the president in person this weekend.  They’ve met Susan Collins, Janet Mills, and our AG.

People in large population centers aren’t the only ones who count.  I think the Electoral College makes sense, although I’d prefer that all states adopt the Maine / Nebraska model of allocating electoral votes.

[Sophomore]

538 has Biden with something like a 96% chance of winning the popular vote. There is a good chance he wins the election, too, but the latter is something that shouldn't matter at all. One person, one vote. Not 3.5 votes in Wyoming to Californians 1 vote.

True.
I wonder if the forefathers envisioned a situation where minority rules.  I’ll go out on a limb and say no...

Of course they envisioned it.  They debated it, and decided on a balance of population versus states’ rights.  They didn’t want Virginia making decisions for the entire country.

If they wanted straight majority rule, that’s what the Constitution would say.  I mean, in the very first election where popular vote was recorded (1824), the “winner” of the popular vote lost the election.  And nobody cared, because it was irrelevant.  There was no majority in the Electoral College, so the vote went to the House, where John Quincy Adams was elected despite losing the popular vote by 10+ percentage points.

Nobody believes in the EC anymore - which is why states bind their electors to cast a ballot for the winner of the popular vote in their state. If the electors ever overthrew the popular vote there would be a political crisis of the highest order.

For historical reasons, and quirks of demographics, older white populations that live in rural states are wildly over represented in the senate and somewhat over represented in the EC. I’m sure you will strive to rationalize this result as good and fair if you benefit from it. For me, the simpler principle of one person one vote seems infinitely fairer.

[Roy H.]

I mean, if you can win 30 or more states you should win.  That's more important than total raw votes when you consider this is a republic.

If you don't want this to be a republic anymore and want to eliminate the states get enough support to change the constitution.  Or stop congregating in the same places and spread out.  Crying endlessly about it does you no good.

You realize that North and South Dakota were added as separate states, rather than 1 for the purpose of enhancing Republican power in the senate? Being a “republic” had nothing to do with it. It was raw power politics. Politicians like to choose their voters when they can, instead of the other way round.

I get that it’s all fun and games when it helps your side. But don’t pretend that there’s some principle at stake.

There is principle, though.  It’s found in the Constitutional system itself, not in the actions of individual politicians.  There’s a recognition that regional differences are real, as true today as 200 years ago.