Author Topic: What's Your Track Record With Celtics Draft Picks?  (Read 1218 times)

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What's Your Track Record With Celtics Draft Picks?
« on: October 07, 2020, 04:30:14 PM »

Offline Roy H.

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There are four categories:

Hated the pick, and I was right

Hated the pick, and I was wrong

Loved the pick, and I was right

Loved the pick, and I was wrong.

For me, I'm really lousy at drafting.  It's something that I've come to accept over the years.  I rely too much upon mock drafts, and in the cases where I've watched enough of a player to form a really solid opinion, I'm wrong at least as much as I'm right.

So, my really poor resume:

Hated the pick, and I was right


There are fewer of these than I'd like to admit. 

I hated the J.R. Giddens pick and I feel pretty confident that I was right there. 

I hated the Fab Melo pick. 

I really disagreed with both Kedrick Brown and Joe Forte. 

I never cared for Marcus Banks and thought that Danny reached. 

I wanted Gary Harris over that stiff we took from Kentucky (screw you, James Young, and screw Bill Simmons too).

I was all-in on Giannis, and was sure that we were taking him when we moved up.  But even here, there's a caveat:  I drafted Giannis in a dynasty simulation league, and promptly traded him for DeMarcus Cousins.  I had absolutely no inclination that he'd be as good as he became.


Hated the pick, and I was wrong


I hated Terry Rozier.  He outperformed my expectations. 

I really didn't want to take Chauncey Billups. 

I thought that Big Baby Davis had no place in the league.

 I thought Delonte West was going to be an afterthought in the pros, and I didn't like Tony Allen.

 I was pretty skeptical of the Tatum trade, as I didn't think we got enough in return for a guy (Fultz) that I thought would be a superstar. 

 Probably my worst analysis was Rondo.  I thought that Marcus Williams was going to be a much better player, haha.


Loved the pick, and I was right


I really liked the Jaylen pick, and wasn't somebody who was fixated on Dunn. 

I was a Marcus Smart fan, although I thought he'd be a better scorer. 

I was 100% on board with Antoine (and we killed it with that trade), and Paul Pierce was my favorite draft day moment of all-time. 

Ryan Gomes was an instant favorite, as was Leon Powe. 

Perkules was super-easy to root for, when I got excited for just about any guy who put up giant high school numbers.



Loved the pick, and I was wrong


I think that there were exactly three times in Celtics draft history where I was absolutely thrilled by a "steal" we got:  Paul Pierce, Gerald Green and Acie Earl.  Yeah.  One out of three ain't bad. 

Ron Mercer was a binkie.  I thought Bill Walker was going to be a stud.

I thought Eric Montross was going to be a legit starting center.

I thought that a safe projection for Jared Sullinger was Carlos Boozer.  Oops.



Lol.  I think this thread was a better idea in my head than this OP is.  Still, I'm curious how everybody else -- including our resident experts -- have done?



Once a CrotoNat, always a CrotoNat. CelticsBlog Draft Champions, 2009 & 2012.

Re: What's Your Track Record With Celtics Draft Picks?
« Reply #1 on: October 07, 2020, 04:40:33 PM »

Offline RPGenerate

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I was pretty high on our future all-star tandem of RJ Hunter and Jordan Mickey. The two biggest steals in the draft  ;D

I am proud of being 100% right on Jaylen Brown tho. It was crazy the amount of people I tried to convince that Brown was better than Dunn and Murray.
« Last Edit: October 07, 2020, 04:45:37 PM by RPGenerate »
2020 Celticsstrong All-2000s Draft: Denver Nuggets:
PG: Gary Payton / Steve Francis
SG: Kyrie Irving / Raja Bell / Danny Green
SF: Rip Hamiltion / Glenn Robinson / Robert Covington
PF: Carmelo Anthony / Draymond Green / Anthony Mason
C: Tim Duncan / DeMarcus Cousins / Zydrunas Ilgauskas

Re: What's Your Track Record With Celtics Draft Picks?
« Reply #2 on: October 07, 2020, 04:51:41 PM »

Offline Vermont Green

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I tend not to get terribly high or low on draft picks as I simply realize that it is all a crap shoot.  Ron Mercer was one guy that I thought was going to be great based on watching him play in college but he never got there.

I tend to be better at assessing young players when I see them play in the NBA.  For example, I thought Chauncy Billups would be good but thought they needed to let him play off of point.  Rick Pitino forced him to play the point, then gave up on him.

Avery Bradley was another one.  I could see the talent his rookie season but could also see he was not emotionally ready for the NBA.

And Fab Melo, I could see after 5 minutes that he would never play in the NBA.  I am not sure I ever saw him play in college but at the time of the draft, I thought, sure, take a chance on an athletic big.  I am stunned that the Celtics' scouting couldn't see how bad he was.

Re: What's Your Track Record With Celtics Draft Picks?
« Reply #3 on: October 07, 2020, 04:59:29 PM »

Offline liam

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I was pretty high on our future all-star tandem of RJ Hunter and Jordan Mickey. The two biggest steals in the draft  ;D

I am proud of being 100% right on Jaylen Brown tho. It was crazy the amount of people I tried to convince that Brown was better than Dunn and Murray.

I wanted Danny to draft either Brown or Bender so I'm glad Danny did the drafting.

Re: What's Your Track Record With Celtics Draft Picks?
« Reply #4 on: October 07, 2020, 05:27:58 PM »

Offline gouki88

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Very very hit or miss.

It might be going a bit early, but I was calling for Grant pre-draft and he's looked like a 10 year vet from day one. Happy with that one.

Loved RJ Hunter, hated James Young and Rozier. Oops on all 3 there.

Loved E'Twaun Moore, and while he wasn't a success at all for Boston (we gave up on him way too early IMO) he's gone on to carve a legit place in the NBA. Hated JaJuan Johnson though, lol.

Absolutely loved Sully and hated the Fab Melo pick, but I was calling for Wroten or Perry Jones III with that Fab Melo pick so it's not like we missed out on much.

Disliked the whole Noguiera / Olynyk pick. Not that I wanted Giannis... I actually was in favour of Tim Hardaway Jr.

Loved Smart, but was mad that Exum was taken just before us, eek!

Was quite unsure about AB, and he proved me very very wrong. I was also praying for Sonny Weems or Pekovic instead of JR Giddens...

Re: What's Your Track Record With Celtics Draft Picks?
« Reply #5 on: October 07, 2020, 08:55:18 PM »

Offline Redz

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I was pretty high on our future all-star tandem of RJ Hunter and Jordan Mickey. The two biggest steals in the draft  ;D

I am proud of being 100% right on Jaylen Brown tho. It was crazy the amount of people I tried to convince that Brown was better than Dunn and Murray.

I wanted Danny to draft either Brown or Bender so I'm glad Danny did the drafting.

The last time I got legit excited that the Celtics took "my guy" it was Acie Earl.   I have since disqualified myself from judgment (except for Tatum and Brown who were such high picks you had to be excited by them).
Yup

Re: What's Your Track Record With Celtics Draft Picks?
« Reply #6 on: October 07, 2020, 09:14:00 PM »

Offline Roy H.

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I was pretty high on our future all-star tandem of RJ Hunter and Jordan Mickey. The two biggest steals in the draft  ;D

I am proud of being 100% right on Jaylen Brown tho. It was crazy the amount of people I tried to convince that Brown was better than Dunn and Murray.

I wanted Danny to draft either Brown or Bender so I'm glad Danny did the drafting.

The last time I got legit excited that the Celtics took "my guy" it was Acie Earl.   I have since disqualified myself from judgment (except for Tatum and Brown who were such high picks you had to be excited by them).

Acie was the man.
Once a CrotoNat, always a CrotoNat. CelticsBlog Draft Champions, 2009 & 2012.

Re: What's Your Track Record With Celtics Draft Picks?
« Reply #7 on: October 07, 2020, 09:50:13 PM »

Offline Csfan1984

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I've drunk the kool-aid on a few picks that the C's made. But for the most part my pre and post draft analysis has been good. I'm probably about 60-70% right which I feel is better than the average GM. I still feel that a lot of how players turn out isn't about talent but effort so it's impossible to be 100% right.

Re: What's Your Track Record With Celtics Draft Picks?
« Reply #8 on: October 07, 2020, 11:04:26 PM »

Offline Smartacus

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Hated the pick and I was right.
Was not too keen on RJ Hunter but thought you was good value where we got him. Was not surprised to see him flame out.

Yabuselle seemed like a waste.

Hated the pick, and I was wrong
I wanted Jamal Murray over Jaylen. Happy we took Jaylen now although Murray is clearly a stud.

Worth noting I also wanted Randle over Smart

Loved the pick, and I was right
I felt really good about Grant Wiliams.

I liked Terry Rozier though I thought we took him too early.

Really liked Romeo Langford (we'll see but I consider this year a success)

Loved the pick, and I was wrong.
Was fist bumping right along with Bill Simmons to the James Young pick.

Thought Fab Melo was great value
« Last Edit: October 09, 2020, 06:46:32 AM by Smartacus »

Re: What's Your Track Record With Celtics Draft Picks?
« Reply #9 on: October 07, 2020, 11:15:47 PM »

Offline GreenEnvy

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I still can’t articulate how or why I thought Orien Greene was going to be a player in this league, but I did after we drafted him.
I AM A CELTIC

Re: What's Your Track Record With Celtics Draft Picks?
« Reply #10 on: October 08, 2020, 06:56:06 AM »

Offline RodyTur10

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Small history here for me. I've become fan of the Celtics in I believe november 2014.
And the first time I looked into college prospects for the draft was in 2016.
I'm not going to adress the very late first rounders, because mostly it's indifferent.


Hated the pick, and I was right


2016(16) Guerschon Yabusele

Honestly, I had no idea who this guy was when we drafted him. Seemed like a big reach, where a draft-and-stash-strategy was prioritized over taking BPA. Yabusele was a wasted pick and with his dead salary he's still hurting us a bit.

2016(45) Demetrius Jackson

When I saw Jackson play in summer league I thought he had a future with the Celtics. However this pick is kind of important, because based on my mock draft we'd have picked Fred VanVleet here instead.

2019(14) Romeo Langford

This is a pick I hated last year. In fact I disliked what we did in that draft all together. I have to admit that the players I wanted at the respective spots (Nassir Little, Dylan Windler, Bruno Fernando) haven't panned out either. While concerns about his shooting are very real I do have some faith in him now. However in a re-draft he'd go lower than 14 and not that NBA2K-ratings are without debate, but there noone of our draftees from the 2019 draft class make it into the first round.


Hated the pick, and I was wrong


2016(3) Jaylen Brown

Had no experience in looking into college prospects, therefore I mainly relied on statistics and Brown wasn't near a lottery pick based on that, so I really didn't understand this pick. Boy was I wrong. I fell for the Dragan Bender hype. Unfortunately Bender was a total bust. They might have removed me from that executive position immediately  ;D.

2017(3) Jayson Tatum

Well hate is a big word here. I was baffled that we traded the nr 1 pick for nr 3, because I believed Markelle Fultz was deservedly seen as the best talent available. In hindsight it was a great pick, but the trade itself only delivered 2019(14)=Langford, so ultimately it wasn't a big heist. For that 3rd pick I had Jonathan Isaac just ahead of D'Aaron Fox.

2019(22) Grant Williams

Not really sure in which category to put Grant Williams. I had Grant at 23 on my board so I didn't think it was a bad pick, nonetheless I had other guys (Little, Windler, Fernando, Bazley and Gafford) ahead of him who where still available. Also I think Celtics fans are much higher on Grant than other NBA fans. Jury is still out on Grant Williams.


Loved the pick, and I was right


2017(37) Semi Ojeleye

I liked Semi Ojeyele and considering that there wasn't much talent available at that point I think it was still a good pick. We have to move on from Ojeleye, but you can't expect much from a second round pick anyway.

2018(27) Robert Williams

This draft was a dream scenario. The Celtics needed a center and all the teams kept on drafting guards and wings, while two lottery talent bigs were left on the board. I preferred Mitchell Robinson, but I was happy with Robert Williams as well. I'm still convinced that Williams should be developed into our future starting center.


Loved the pick, and I was wrong


2016(23) Ante Zizic

Again, this was the first time I made a mock draft for myself. I had Zizic as 4th on my board, so based on that we would have drafted him with the 16th pick in that draft. Anyway, though he's still in the league there were some good players drafted just after him (27 Siakam, 29 Dejounte Murray, 32 Zubac - who was also high on my board), so it was a bad pick in the end.

2019(34) Carsen Edwards

As I said previously I didn't like our draft last summer, but I was hopeful that Edwards could be the exception to that.
After an impressive campaign in the summer league and pre-season he has played awful and unfortunately I don't see a future for him in the NBA.

Comparison overall

To make a comparison between whom have been drafted and what I would have done I assume we'd made the same trades as happened in reality (like Zizic to Cavs, 2016 - 31 and 35 for future pick, 2017 - Philly trade, 2019 - draft trades).

From all the drafted players since 2016: Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Semi Ojeleye, Robert Williams, Romeo Langford, Grant Williams, Carsen Edwards and Tremont Waters are still on the roster/under control by the Celtics.

Danny Ainge made some genius trades, which I wouldn't have made, but just based on the same made draft picks I would have assembled a very different roster anyway. Assuming the same developments as in real life the following group would be under contract: Fred VanVleet, Jonathan Isaac, Mitchell Robinson, Nassir Little, Dylan Windler, Bruno Fernando (and Tremont Waters?).

I doubt anybody would switch Tatum + Brown + R.Williams + G.Williams + Langford + Edwards => Isaac + VanVleet + Robinson + Little + Fernando + Windler   :-[

Rationalism over beliefs

Re: What's Your Track Record With Celtics Draft Picks?
« Reply #11 on: October 08, 2020, 08:09:32 AM »

Offline Vermont Green

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This thread shows that regular fans have about the same track record on draft picks as the pros.  Some hits, plenty of misses.  I think this just proves that there is an element of chance in drafting, especially these days when the players are often 19 years old.

Even total blue chip players turn out bad, regularly.  And there are always surprises in the later rounds.  That happens every draft.  Take for example our upcoming 14fth pick.  My theory is that you could take your top 5 or so of the expected players available and who would be realistically considered for that draft spot, put their names in a hat and pick one.  The result would not be any better or worse than picking based on analysis.

I guess Felger and Mazz prove this with their throw markers at the wall game they do each year.

Re: What's Your Track Record With Celtics Draft Picks?
« Reply #12 on: October 08, 2020, 09:15:02 AM »

Offline slamtheking

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admittedly I don't follow the college game very much except for the local teams (PC/URI) so I go off of draft report analysis.  of the players picked I only really knew Fab Melo enough to know I absolutely hated that pick and that when Danny selected Jaylen Brown instead of Kris Dunn I was very pleased, not because I knew a lot about Jaylen but that I couldn't see why Dunn was so highly rated.   All the rest of the picks I bought into hoping that Danny and crew did their best due diligence.  Relying on the same thing especially this year with an abbreviated season, no tournament and no combines.

Re: What's Your Track Record With Celtics Draft Picks?
« Reply #13 on: October 08, 2020, 10:41:52 AM »

Offline trickybilly

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I hated KO. Was kinda right.

LOVED timelord was kinda right.

Hated G Will. Was super wrong.
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Re: What's Your Track Record With Celtics Draft Picks?
« Reply #14 on: October 08, 2020, 11:59:08 AM »

Offline footey

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2019:

Langford:   Would have preferred Doumboya, but was fine otherwise.
G Williams: Loved pick, seems to have panned out.
C Edwards: Loved pick, too soon to judge.
Waters: No opinion when made, now like.

2018:

R Williams: Loved pick, still love it, more than our coach apparently.

2017:

Tatum: I was infatuated with Josh Jackson, so I forfeit my right to discuss this one!!
Semi: Liked this given where in draft. Think it was good value pick, still.

2016:

Jaylen Brown: Loved this pick, although also liked Bender.  Whew!
Yabu: Was okay with draft and stash, looked like gold in summer league, I think his difficulty with weight sunk his chances to pan out.
Zizic: Thought good pick until I saw him in summer league, and was very concerned with heavy feet. 
Nader: No opinion, actually was a very good value pick in retrospect, guy is on an NBA roster.

2015:

Rozier: Thought Ainge blew it (another guard???!!!) but turned out to be a very good value pick.
Hunter: Liked this, bought into the March Madness hype story, kid had beautiful stroke, thought he'd latch onto a team like Dallas, but no go.

2014:

Smart:  Was hoping we would have gotten better pick, was really keen on Gordon and Exum (LOL), and had hope that Embiid would somehow slide. Smart turned out a lot better than I thought.  Love him now of course.
Young: I wanted Gary Harris a lot, but at the time didn't hate Young due to his measurements, youth and projectable upside.  Kid just didn't have the fire. (Case for why drafting is so hard!!)

2013:

Hated the trade up for Olynyk, but honestly don't recall having any opinion on Greek Freak.  Thought Kelly was too slow in college to amount to anything. He has probably performed in line with the position he was taken in the draft, right?  So wasn't a terrible pick by Ainge really.