A Good Look At The Celtics Cap Situation

[Roy H.]

https://www.masslive.com/celtics/2020/09/boston-celtics-roster-reset-all-the-contracts-exceptions-options-for-adding-players-next-season.html

Presumed Salary Cap/Tax (the cap has not been set, but it is widely speculated that the league will try to keep the 2020-21 cap number level to the 2019-20 numbers and work out a formula to smooth out the losses over the upcoming seasons): $109,140,000/$132,627,000

2020-21 Guaranteed contracts: 9

Kemba Walker: $34,379,100
Marcus Smart: $13,446,428
Jayson Tatum: $9,897,120
Jaylen Brown: $23,883,929
Romeo Langford: $3,631,200
Vincent Poirier: $2,619,207
Grant Williams: $2,498,760
Robert Williams: $2,029,920
Carsen Edwards: $1,517,981
Guaranteed contract total: $95,035,582

Player Options: 2

Gordon Hayward: $34,187,085
Enes Kanter: $5,005,350
Team Options: 1


Semi Ojeleye: $1,752,950
Non-Guaranteed contracts: 2

Daniel Theis: $5,000,000
Javonte Green: $1,517,981
Restricted free agents: 1

Brad Wanamaker: $1,820,564 (Qualifying offer)
Deadlines:

October 15: Gordon Hayward player option decision

October 17: Enes Kanter player option decision, Semi Ojeleye team option decision

October 17: Qualifying offer deadline for Brad Wanamaker (if Boston doesn’t make this offer, he becomes an unrestricted free agent. If they do, Wanamaker becomes a restricted free agent, which means Boston has the right to match any contract offer he receives from another team).

October 21: Daniel Theis contract fully guaranteed

Summary: The Celtics have nine guaranteed contracts for next season. Three of those, Langford, Grant Williams, and Robert Williams, are rookie deals which carry team options for the 2021-22 season. Walker has one more guaranteed year before a player option in 2022-23. Smart has one more guaranteed year left on his deal. Brown is beginning the first year of a four-year extension.

Jayson Tatum is entering the final year of his rookie deal, and is extension eligible until the first day of the regular season. He and the Celtics can negotiate a deal that can go as long as five years, and because he made an All-NBA team, he is eligible for a salary up to 30% of the salary cap. This does not replace the final year of his rookie contract.


So what does this all mean? The Celtics will almost certainly guarantee Theis' deal. Add more than $6 million in cap holds (temporary place holders for assumed salaries) for three draft picks Boston owns, and the Celtics are right on the edge of the cap. Add the remaining players necessary to fill out this roster and Boston will be over the cap for this upcoming year (and probably for many years to come). If Gordon Hayward opts in, the Celtics will become a taxpaying team.

How much money does Boston have to spend on a free agent? It depends. The Celtics will most likely operate safely and go with the taxpayer mid-level exception. It will be somewhere around $5.7 million, but that depends on the final cap number. However, if they can do some maneuvering with Hayward’s contract, they could get the non-taxpayer mid-level exception, giving them about $9.3 million. They will not have cap space. They may also be able to get a bi-annual exception in this scenario, which would be an additional $3.6 million. Don’t count on that. It’s unlikely.

About Gordon Hayward’s contract: If he opts in, it will add almost $34.2 million to the payroll, taking Boston over the tax line. It could, depending on the timing, cut into how much exception money Boston has to spend.

Hayward could opt out and re-sign long term. By completing this season, his third in Boston, the Celtics now have full Bird Rights, which is an exception that allows them to exceed the salary cap to sign him. Here’s where the negotiation starts.


Boston can sign him for a contract up to five years long, which would take him out to his 35th/36th birthday (depending on how future NBA schedules play out). That is very likely the end, or near the end, of his career. A five-year, $100 million contract would pay him a starting salary of about $17.2 million. An increase in total value obviously increases the initial salary, and a decrease in the total value of the contract decreases the initial salary.

We’ll dive into the merits of this in another piece. Right now, you know the options.

Are there any restrictions on trades? First, let me make this as simple as possible. Teams have to match salaries in trades. There is a wide measure of “matching” that allows the salaries to be within a certain range of each other, but teams do have to consider matching salaries. If you want the full, technical mumbo jumbo, you can head over to Larry Coon’s indispensable Salary Cap FAQ resource.

So the answer is, yes, depending on the trade. If, for some reason, the Celtics do a sign-and-trade with someone eligible for that (Hayward, Kanter, Theis, for example) they’d end up hard-capped at just about $139 million. They could not spend more than that, no matter what. The Celtics were hard capped this year by virtue of the Kemba Walker sign-and-trade, and it didn’t matter.


If the Celtics were to include Tatum in a trade (would they? Probably not, but let’s pretend some of you are entertaining a Tatum-for-Giannis Antetokounmpo dream), there are two scenarios. They can trade him without signing him to an extension, in which case his salary would simple be viewed as his salary. If the Celtics extend him and then trade him, then his salary becomes a “poison pill." The receiving team counts his salary as the average of all remaining years on his deal, while Boston counts him as his actual salary. Don’t worry if you’re confused. It’s a nightmare. It doesn’t happen often, generally because teams don’t extend these rookies because they want them gone.

Gordon Hayward and Kemba Walker each have 15% trade kickers, which means if either is traded, their salary increases by 15% and that’s the number used in the matching equation. Those players could waive that if they so chose.

Brad Wanamaker can’t be traded as he is potentially a free agent.

Cuts: If Boston cuts a player with a guaranteed contract, that money still stays on the books. Teams are allowed 15 guaranteed roster spots and two two-way players. Two-way players have no impact on the salary cap.

The full salary of any player cut remains on the books for however long that player is under contract. For example, if Boston cuts Carsen Edwards, they would have $1,517,981 of cap space occupied this year and $1,782,621 next year.


Unless...

They can use the waive-and-stretch provision, which spreads the cap hit over twice the remaining years, plus one additional year. So using that provision to waive Edwards would spread the total hit evenly over five years (twice the two remaining years, plus another year) at $660,120.4 per year. The advantage is that the dead money on the cap is lower but the disadvantage is that it lasts five years instead of two.

Keep this in mind if you ever say “just cut (insert player name here)."

2020 draft picks: 14, 26, 30

Even though Boston has cap holds on their books for presumed salaries of those picks, they are not worth any monetary value for salary matching purposes. So, if Boston needs to add $6 million in salary to a deal, they can’t add these three picks to do so. They are worth $0 as far as salary matching is concerned. They are simply sweeteners in deals.

In Conclusion: The Celtics don’t have many options for adding players. They likely won’t have much money to spend, even if they come to an agreement with Hayward on a new deal. That could open up a few more million to spend on a potentially useful bench player, but that’s about it. They could make a trade, but there aren’t many options for that either outside of a blockbuster involving their top-end talent.

[Phantom255x]

I like Kanter and his attitude, but if the guy is virtually unplayable against a lot of these playoff teams in the East (ex. Toronto, Miami), then I'm not against moving on. I expect him to opt-out and unless he's willing to return for cheap, he'll be gone.

I'm not against a Baynes reunion for the MLE. He's the kind of guy we're missing. Someone who can actually play against almost all these bigs and give us good effort on both ends. Theis and Kanter have obvious flaws against certain bigs and it gets exposed. Kanter barely even played the last few series as a result. And while I love Theis, he can't be the starting center on this team if we're truly thinking Finals.

Think of Baynes in some of our recent playoff runs. Not to say Bam would be contained entirely, but I imagine Baynes would have done a better job on him than Theis, especially on the defensive end.

Oh, and cutting Ojeyele is a must. Should have happened the first minute after we were eliminated.

[PhoSita]

Would be nice if the Celts could make a deal around the time of the draft using Kanter's contract and one or more of their later 1st round picks.  Might be able to get a decent role player making ~$5-6 million that way.


I expect that Wanamaker and Semi will be gone.


I like Wanamaker just fine as a third string guard who occasionally steps up as the primary backup.  Problem is that he's probably shown enough to merit a regular rotation role for some team, or perhaps making a couple million a year overseas.  He's just not good enough to be part of the top 8-9 on a contender.


I think Ainge should be prepared to trade any of Langford, Rob, Grant, and Edwards in order to upgrade the bench.  With the exception of Edwards I think all of those guys have potential as future rotation pieces.  The problem is that the team needs guys who can be a reliable part of a playoff rotation now, not several years from now.

[rocknrollforyoursoul]

In other words, the bench is likely to once again be filled mostly with first- and second-year players who aren't particularly good. And the team will likely still be weak at center, unless Rob Williams takes a huge leap forward.

[PhoSita]

Here's an idea I like:

Kanter + 1st for Richaun Holmes


Not sure how interested the Kings would be but I think that'd be an upgrade.

[BASS_THUMPER]

cost alot for a little

[RPGenerate]

Here's an idea I like:

Kanter + 1st for Richaun Holmes


Not sure how interested the Kings would be but I think that'd be an upgrade.

As long as that first isn't 14th, I'd be cool with that trade.

[PhoSita]

In other words, the bench is likely to once again be filled mostly with first- and second-year players who aren't particularly good. And the team will likely still be weak at center, unless Rob Williams takes a huge leap forward.

I think it's reasonable to hope that Ainge can find some modest upgrades to Wanamaker / Semi / Kanter via trade or free agency.

It's clear now that the team should be looking to maximize their title chances every single season.  We've exited "building for a few years from now" mode.  We're also well removed from "piling up assets for a megastar trade" mode.

Now it's all about putting the best team around Tatum and Brown that we can while those guys are still healthy, under contract, and happy to play together under Brad Stevens.  We don't really know how many years that will be.


I trust that Ainge recognizes that and can see clearly from this latest playoff defeat that a team can't really make a Finals run relying on unproven players / rookies to support the starters.

[PhoSita]

Here's an idea I like:

Kanter + 1st for Richaun Holmes


Not sure how interested the Kings would be but I think that'd be an upgrade.

As long as that first isn't 14th, I'd be cool with that trade.

Yeah I'm thinking one of the later picks.  We don't really have room on the roster for more late 1st rounders anyway.

[RJ87]

This is why I think there'll be more onus on the team trying to get Gordon to opt out and resign at a lower figure. It at least gets beneath the tax comfortably.

[NKY fan]

In other words, the bench is likely to once again be filled mostly with first- and second-year players who aren't particularly good. And the team will likely still be weak at center, unless Rob Williams takes a huge leap forward.

I think it's reasonable to hope that Ainge can find some modest upgrades to Wanamaker / Semi / Kanter via trade or free agency.

It's clear now that the team should be looking to maximize their title chances every single season.  We've exited "building for a few years from now" mode.  We're also well removed from "piling up assets for a megastar trade" mode.

Now it's all about putting the best team around Tatum and Brown that we can while those guys are still healthy, under contract, and happy to play together under Brad Stevens.  We don't really know how many years that will be.


I trust that Ainge recognizes that and can see clearly from this latest playoff defeat that a team can't really make a Finals run relying on unproven players / rookies to support the starters.

What do you mean? Miami just proved it lol 😂

[PhoSita]

In other words, the bench is likely to once again be filled mostly with first- and second-year players who aren't particularly good. And the team will likely still be weak at center, unless Rob Williams takes a huge leap forward.

I think it's reasonable to hope that Ainge can find some modest upgrades to Wanamaker / Semi / Kanter via trade or free agency.

It's clear now that the team should be looking to maximize their title chances every single season.  We've exited "building for a few years from now" mode.  We're also well removed from "piling up assets for a megastar trade" mode.

Now it's all about putting the best team around Tatum and Brown that we can while those guys are still healthy, under contract, and happy to play together under Brad Stevens.  We don't really know how many years that will be.


I trust that Ainge recognizes that and can see clearly from this latest playoff defeat that a team can't really make a Finals run relying on unproven players / rookies to support the starters.

What do you mean? Miami just proved it lol 😂

Dragic, Butler, Crowder, Iguodala -- more than half the Heat rotation is comprised of guys with a ton of experience including going deep in the playoffs. 

They had a former Finals MVP coming off the bench. 


You can have guys like Herro and Robinson playing significant roles on your team.  You just can't have a supporting cast made up entirely of those guys. 

[footey]

In other words, the bench is likely to once again be filled mostly with first- and second-year players who aren't particularly good. And the team will likely still be weak at center, unless Rob Williams takes a huge leap forward.

I think it's reasonable to hope that Ainge can find some modest upgrades to Wanamaker / Semi / Kanter via trade or free agency.

It's clear now that the team should be looking to maximize their title chances every single season.  We've exited "building for a few years from now" mode.  We're also well removed from "piling up assets for a megastar trade" mode.

Now it's all about putting the best team around Tatum and Brown that we can while those guys are still healthy, under contract, and happy to play together under Brad Stevens.  We don't really know how many years that will be.


I trust that Ainge recognizes that and can see clearly from this latest playoff defeat that a team can't really make a Finals run relying on unproven players / rookies to support the starters.

What do you mean? Miami just proved it lol 😂

Dragic, Butler, Crowder, Iguodala -- more than half the Heat rotation is comprised of guys with a ton of experience including going deep in the playoffs. 

They had a former Finals MVP coming off the bench. 


You can have guys like Herro and Robinson playing significant roles on your team.  You just can't have a supporting cast made up entirely of those guys.

You are exaggerating here, Pho.  The only guy who had the edge in playoff experience was Iggy.  Butler, Crowder and Dragic were no more experienced in the playoffs than Tatum, and Brown (actually less experience), and no more experienced as NBA players as Kemba. 

The MVPs of the Heat vs Celtics were Bam and Herro, one dude a 3rd year player with hardly any playoff experience, the other a rook.

[tazzmaniac]

I like Kanter and his attitude, but if the guy is virtually unplayable against a lot of these playoff teams in the East (ex. Toronto, Miami), then I'm not against moving on. I expect him to opt-out and unless he's willing to return for cheap, he'll be gone.

I'm not against a Baynes reunion for the MLE. He's the kind of guy we're missing. Someone who can actually play against almost all these bigs and give us good effort on both ends. Theis and Kanter have obvious flaws against certain bigs and it gets exposed. Kanter barely even played the last few series as a result. And while I love Theis, he can't be the starting center on this team if we're truly thinking Finals.

Think of Baynes in some of our recent playoff runs. Not to say Bam would be contained entirely, but I imagine Baynes would have done a better job on him than Theis, especially on the defensive end.

Oh, and cutting Ojeyele is a must. Should have happened the first minute after we were eliminated.

Why would Kanter opt out?  No one is going to offer him more money in free agency and he could get less.  I don't see anyone giving him a multi-year deal other than a team option for the 2nd year. 

[Roy H.]

I like Kanter and his attitude, but if the guy is virtually unplayable against a lot of these playoff teams in the East (ex. Toronto, Miami), then I'm not against moving on. I expect him to opt-out and unless he's willing to return for cheap, he'll be gone.

I'm not against a Baynes reunion for the MLE. He's the kind of guy we're missing. Someone who can actually play against almost all these bigs and give us good effort on both ends. Theis and Kanter have obvious flaws against certain bigs and it gets exposed. Kanter barely even played the last few series as a result. And while I love Theis, he can't be the starting center on this team if we're truly thinking Finals.

Think of Baynes in some of our recent playoff runs. Not to say Bam would be contained entirely, but I imagine Baynes would have done a better job on him than Theis, especially on the defensive end.

Oh, and cutting Ojeyele is a must. Should have happened the first minute after we were eliminated.

Why would Kanter opt out?  No one is going to offer him more money in free agency and he could get less.  I don't see anyone giving him a multi-year deal other than a team option for the 2nd year.

I agree, and if he doesn’t, that’s great for us.  We simply don’t have many “chunk” contracts to trade.