4th Quarter Execution vs MIA

[PhoSita]

The Celts being down 3-1 is due to a number of factors.  The Bam block.  The Herro game. Cold shooting at bad times.

Biggest thing that stands out to me, though, is fourth quarter execution.  The Heat just seem to have the Celts' number in every fourth quarter.


Game 4:

Miami won the final quarter 35-33.  The Celts had 7 turnovers, which is huge.  The Celts shot 10-19 from the field but the Heat had 25 FGA to go with 8 FTA in the quarter.

That comes down to a basic numbers game.  Your opponent gets more chances to turn possessions into points than you, you're likely going to lose.


Game 3:

Miami won the fourth 32-28.  Celts were 8-16 from the floor with 9 FTA, but they again had 6 TOs, which led to the Heat attempting 26 FGA and 11 FTA.


Game 2:

The Celts actually won this quarter 24-22.  7-17 FGA and 8 FTA.  The Celts had "only" 5 turnovers in this frame.


Game 1:

Miami dominated the fourth, 35-23.  This was the major blown lead that in retrospect foretold the pain that was to come in this series.  Miami won OT 11-8.  The Celts had 9-20 FGA in the 4th quarter, with only 3 FTA.  Miami only had 14 FGA but they made 10 of them, which is insane.  On top of that they had 12 FTA.  Just a plain old drubbing.



The weird thing is that these fourth quarter woes contrast with the Toronto series.  In that series, the Celts routinely won the fourth quarter, but they got shellacked in the 3rd.  The Celtics never won the 3rd quarter against Toronto.

Most notably, Toronto destroyed the Celts in the 3rd quarter of Game 2 (30-20), Game 4 (32-24), and Game 6 (33-25).


So my question is -- what is it with this team and consistently getting beaten up in specific parts of the game?

I guess you'd rather have a tough 3rd quarter and then make up for it with late game execution.  If you are consistently beaten in the 4th quarter, that's a recipe for losing a series.  No surprise then that the Celts look to be headed home sometime this weekend.


I don't exactly have an answer here, this is more of a question.  What gives?  Is this a matter of Tatum and Brown being young?  Kemba and Hayward, who could potentially take charge of crunch time playmaking, not being at 100%?  Or is the team as a whole just prone to turnovers and overall bad decision-making? 

I know we've all put our heads in our hands at times watching the team slow it down and go into iso ball while trying to protect a small lead, and wondered aloud why the heck they won't drive into the paint against the Miami zone.



Obviously, even good teams have flaws.  It's not reasonable to expect them to be perfect.  The next Celtic team to make a Finals and win a title won't be perfect.  That said, I feel like teams that have a serious chance at winning the title are going to typically be able to respond to and correct trends like this over the course of a tough series.  If you face an opponent that has your number in a particular area and you can't adapt, that's often going to be the reason you go home.

The Heat, to me, are winning this series because their execution at the end of these games is simply better.  More crisp, more confident, more consistent.  The Celts could beat a Heat team that got these bonkers shooting games from guys like Herro and Robinson, if the Heat were a bit sloppier or weren't able to come up with crucial plays from guys like Dragic, Butler, and Iguodala in high leverage situations. 

The solace I take is that the three guys I just mentioned have way more experience and a lot less left in the tank than guys on the Celtics.  This may not be our year, but I hope the Celts will learn from this run and come back in the future looking more like this Heat team in late game situations.

[GreenCoffeeBean]

This is why Miami is the better team and deserves to advance. Games are won and lost in the 4th quarter and Miami recognizes this and we don’t.

[Green-18]

The Celts being down 3-1 is due to a number of factors.  The Bam block.  The Herro game. Cold shooting at bad times.

Biggest thing that stands out to me, though, is fourth quarter execution.  The Heat just seem to have the Celts' number in every fourth quarter.


Game 4:

Miami won the final quarter 35-33.  The Celts had 7 turnovers, which is huge.  The Celts shot 10-19 from the field but the Heat had 25 FGA to go with 8 FTA in the quarter.

That comes down to a basic numbers game.  Your opponent gets more chances to turn possessions into points than you, you're likely going to lose.


Game 3:

Miami won the fourth 32-28.  Celts were 8-16 from the floor with 9 FTA, but they again had 6 TOs, which led to the Heat attempting 26 FGA and 11 FTA.


Game 2:

The Celts actually won this quarter 24-22.  7-17 FGA and 8 FTA.  The Celts had "only" 5 turnovers in this frame.


Game 1:

Miami dominated the fourth, 35-23.  This was the major blown lead that in retrospect foretold the pain that was to come in this series.  Miami won OT 11-8.  The Celts had 9-20 FGA in the 4th quarter, with only 3 FTA.  Miami only had 14 FGA but they made 10 of them, which is insane.  On top of that they had 12 FTA.  Just a plain old drubbing.



The weird thing is that these fourth quarter woes contrast with the Toronto series.  In that series, the Celts routinely won the fourth quarter, but they got shellacked in the 3rd.  The Celtics never won the 3rd quarter against Toronto.

Most notably, Toronto destroyed the Celts in the 3rd quarter of Game 2 (30-20), Game 4 (32-24), and Game 6 (33-25).


So my question is -- what is it with this team and consistently getting beaten up in specific parts of the game?

I guess you'd rather have a tough 3rd quarter and then make up for it with late game execution.  If you are consistently beaten in the 4th quarter, that's a recipe for losing a series.  No surprise then that the Celts look to be headed home sometime this weekend.


I don't exactly have an answer here, this is more of a question.  What gives?  Is this a matter of Tatum and Brown being young?  Kemba and Hayward, who could potentially take charge of crunch time playmaking, not being at 100%?  Or is the team as a whole just prone to turnovers and overall bad decision-making? 

I know we've all put our heads in our hands at times watching the team slow it down and go into iso ball while trying to protect a small lead, and wondered aloud why the heck they won't drive into the paint against the Miami zone.

The youth of Tatum and Brown plays a huge factor, although I lean towards Kemba not delivering at the level we expected.  I'm not trying to single Kemba out, but I envisioned seeing him come up with clutch buckets far more often than he has.  Is it the knee? Is he too much of a high volume rhythm shooter?  I really don't know the answer.  I expected Tatum and Brown to be our best two way players, while Kemba's late game scoring would carry us home.  His inability to get good looks has decreased our margin for error in tight games.  It really allows defenses to key in on Tatum.

[PhoSita]

One thing I want to add is that I think late game execution is where the Celts really miss Al Horford.  Obviously not the version of Horford we saw this year.

But when I think about how this team came a few minutes away from a Finals trip in 2018 compared to how they're faring in the ECF this season, Horford is the guy that comes to mind first.  Horford was cash money at the end of games.  I always believed in him making big plays, taking pick and pop threes when the Celts needed it most.  Maybe that's selective memory.

Imagine this Celts team with that version of Horford at center, though.  That team would be my pick to win the title.

[Donoghus]

That 2-3 minute stretch in the middle of the 4th quarter last night is what cost them the game. Like 8 minutes to go to 5 minutes or so to go.

Killed them.

[PhoSita]

I'm not trying to single Kemba out, but I envisioned seeing him come up with clutch buckets far more often than he has.  Is it the knee? Is he too much of a high volume rhythm shooter?  I really don't know the answer.

I suspect that part of it is going against a team that plays a couple of relatively big guys in the backcourt (Dragic and Butler), combined with a defensive anchor who is quick enough to keep up.

Compare that to Toronto playing VanVleet and Lowry together and then putting relatively slow-footed Marc Gasol or Ibaka out there.  Kemba could get past Toronto's guards, and if he got matched up on Toronto's bigs he could get a step-back midranger.

I feel like Kemba has a much tougher time creating space in this series.

[Green-18]

One thing I want to add is that I think late game execution is where the Celts really miss Al Horford.  Obviously not the version of Horford we saw this year.

But when I think about how this team came a few minutes away from a Finals trip in 2018 compared to how they're faring in the ECF this season, Horford is the guy that comes to mind first.  Horford was cash money at the end of games.  I always believed in him making big plays, taking pick and pop threes when the Celts needed it most.  Maybe that's selective memory.

Imagine this Celts team with that version of Horford at center, though.  That team would be my pick to win the title.

You are absolutely right about this.  Teams really needed to respect Horford's perimeter shooting and passing.  Kemba would have benefited from his presence.  It also means that our best offensive lineup wouldn't be completely undersized.

[PhoSita]

That 2-3 minute stretch in the middle of the 4th quarter last night is what cost them the game. Like 8 minutes to go to 5 minutes or so to go.

Killed them.

8:51 Theis makes a dunk off a Brown assist to go up 85-84.

This feels like a chance to build momentum.  I remember thinking -- ok, they've worked their way back.  They look like they're ready to take over.  Can they put it away now?

The Heat took a timeout, Butler missed a three, but Bam grabbed the board and put the Heat back up 86-85.

Then Theis lost the ball to Butler, and on the ensuing possession Smart blocked Jimmy B's layup, but the Heat got the ball.  Then Herro hit a three.  89-85.


From 8:09 to 6:49 the score remained at 89-85.  The Celts missed a three and turned the ball over.  Then at 6:49 Herro made a layup (I think this was one where he Euro-stepped past Kemba) to put the Heat up 91-85.


That does feel like a decisive stretch.


The other time it was close after that was at 3:17 when Smart hit a layup to put the team within 3, 95-98.

After that Dragic hit a close shot, Tatum turned it over, and Butler hit a 10-footer.  Heat up 102-95 with 2:05 left.

From there, Tatum hit a quick three to come within 4, 98-102.  But then Dragic hit a three to put it back to 7, 1:36 remaining.


At that point, the game is about to slip away.  Got to make a play to give the team a chance.  Smart threw a bad pass, Bam stole it, and Herro got a layup.  107-98 with under a minute remaining.  Game all but over.





Really it comes down to turnovers and stops.  The Heat forced turnovers (and the Celts made some bad errors) while not making comparable bad mistakes themselves.  Anytime the Celts got close, they failed to capitalize, while the Heat hit timely shots.

[jambr380]

When I read the thread title, I pictured something more like this. Hint: The Cs are not the guys with the axes:

[PhoSita]

When I read the thread title, I pictured something more like this. Hint: The Cs are not the guys with the axes:

Yeah it does kinda feel like that.


This Heat team in the fourth quarter reminds me at times of the early 2010s Spurs teams.  Even when the Celts play really good defense for a full 24 seconds the Heat move the ball around and find the holes in the Celts' defense.  It's really impressive, even though it's very dispiriting to be on the wrong end of it.

[wiley]

The C's need to understand that "taking care of the ball" is not a cliche.  Like, it's a real thing and not doing it has devastating consequences.

Each player needs to come up with one concrete step they are going to take to not turn the ball over,
whether that step relates to not over dribbling, being too fancy, not forcing impossible passes, etc.

but really it's on each individual player to limit, and ideally erase, his turnovers.

How many possessions yesterday where no shot was taken?

[CelticsBR]

I feel Horford would really be a difference-maker in this series.

Part of the reason of the 4th qrt struggles seem to be how hard it has been for the Cs to make the pass to the player at the ft line to break the zone defense. The entry-pass is well-covered by Iguodala and Butler (and Dragic, eventually) and when it is successful, our players are looking for the kick-out before threatening to score on their own. Our lack of bigs in this position and the quality of Bam justify that.

Neither Tatum or Brown are the passers to do it. Tatum has been great at passing for the series, but that is not how he is scoring right now.

Smart tries it and he is good at cutting. But he had a poor game last night.

I expected Hayward to be THAT guy and I was wondering if Kanter couldn't do it for a while. Are we that much worse on defense AGAINST THE HEAT when he is in?

[CelticsBR]

When I read the thread title, I pictured something more like this. Hint: The Cs are not the guys with the axes:

Yeah it does kinda feel like that.


This Heat team in the fourth quarter reminds me at times of the early 2010s Spurs teams.  Even when the Celts play really good defense for a full 24 seconds the Heat move the ball around and find the holes in the Celts' defense.  It's really impressive, even though it's very dispiriting to be on the wrong end of it.

Yeah, that's how I feel too.

[rocknrollforyoursoul]

Yes, the Cs were executed in the fourth quarter last night.

[td450]

That 2-3 minute stretch in the middle of the 4th quarter last night is what cost them the game. Like 8 minutes to go to 5 minutes or so to go.

Killed them.

8:51 Theis makes a dunk off a Brown assist to go up 85-84.

This feels like a chance to build momentum.  I remember thinking -- ok, they've worked their way back.  They look like they're ready to take over.  Can they put it away now?

The Heat took a timeout, Butler missed a three, but Bam grabbed the board and put the Heat back up 86-85.

Then Theis lost the ball to Butler, and on the ensuing possession Smart blocked Jimmy B's layup, but the Heat got the ball.  Then Herro hit a three.  89-85.


From 8:09 to 6:49 the score remained at 89-85.  The Celts missed a three and turned the ball over.  Then at 6:49 Herro made a layup (I think this was one where he Euro-stepped past Kemba) to put the Heat up 91-85.


That does feel like a decisive stretch.


The other time it was close after that was at 3:17 when Smart hit a layup to put the team within 3, 95-98.

After that Dragic hit a close shot, Tatum turned it over, and Butler hit a 10-footer.  Heat up 102-95 with 2:05 left.

From there, Tatum hit a quick three to come within 4, 98-102.  But then Dragic hit a three to put it back to 7, 1:36 remaining.


At that point, the game is about to slip away.  Got to make a play to give the team a chance.  Smart threw a bad pass, Bam stole it, and Herro got a layup.  107-98 with under a minute remaining.  Game all but over.





Really it comes down to turnovers and stops.  The Heat forced turnovers (and the Celts made some bad errors) while not making comparable bad mistakes themselves.  Anytime the Celts got close, they failed to capitalize, while the Heat hit timely shots.

I rewatched the last three minutes, and the Dragic three at 1:36 was particularly bad. Huge unforced error by Gordon Hayward wandering out of position led to a wide open shot from the corner.

Its particularly upsetting because it was a simple pick and roll action that was so obvious that the announcers called out the setup in advance.

 It had to be something the team had practiced against, but it was a mess.