Let Me Tell You A Story

[PhoSita]

Tough loss tonight. The ECF isn't looking good right now.  The Celtics look tired or overmatched or not quite ready for the moment or some combination.

Story time.  Take your mind off things.

2011 Western Conference Finals.

Young, up and coming team led by two highly routed, highly drafted young stars. Expected by many to be dominating the league, in due time.

The playoffs were a little odd that year, due to an unusually short season. The window seemed open for an unexpected outcome.


The opponent: another unexpected team. A deep squad of veterans and a really great coach. A superstar who had been winning a ton of games in the league for years but who had yet to win a title.  A somewhat underappreciated scoring focused guard with no fear of, well, anyone, or any moment.  An imposing defensive anchor.  A team that knocked off one of the presumed favorites fairly convincingly in Round 2.


Thunder vs Mavericks.


Do you remember who that Thunder team had, other than Durant, Westbrook, Ibaka, and Harden?

They had post-injury Kendrick Perkins starting at center for 27-28 minutes.

Their sixth man was Nick Collison, scoring 8.6 points per game for the series.

Their main wing reserve was Thabo Sefolosha.  They had Eric Maynor and Daequan Cook filling out the 9 man rotation playing about 10 minutes a night.

It's the sort of depth we're all pretty familiar with right now.


The Thunder were ahead of schedule, many felt. They played like it. They lost in 5 games. The Mavericks went on to win the title.


Of course, the next season, the Thunder made the Finals.  They didn't even do that much to improve their bench, they just added Derek Fisher and their young stars got another year older.  Beyond that, they drafted Steven Adams in 2013, Reggie Jackson came into his own, and by 2016 they were freaking amazing, even if they weren't enough to defeat the Warriors.



This is what I'm thinking about tonight, with the Celts down 0-2 to Jimmy B, Bam, and the Miami White Boys.  The Celts are ahead of schedule. No matter what happens in the next couple of games, I believe in Tatum, Brown, and Smart.  I believe that Ainge will find ways to improve the firepower coming off the bench and give the Celts more of a paint presence.  I believe that Brad will gather lots of valuable information (noting the ways Spo is out-coaching him), and use it to win future playoff series.

Hope you enjoyed this invitation to story time. Sports are all about narratives. The Celts narrative is headed in exciting directions that don't end with this season.  Like the 2011 Mavs, this Heat team might be a quirky flash in the pan.

I think the Jay&Jay Celts are gonna be giving the league something to worry about for a long while.



Oh, and by the way - I don't know if you noticed, but Jaylen Brown seems to be really good friends with Donovan Mitchell. Get the sense he might be sick of Utah in a year or two. Bet he'd be a good replacement for Kemba. Just sayin'.

[Rondo9]

Tatum is just garbage in this series, he's no Durant.

[SparzWizard]

Let me tell you a story.

Brad Stevens sucks. Being down 0-2 sucks. Blowing 17-point lead sucks. Holding the ball with final possession in regulation just to brick a terrible 27-foot 3-pointer sucks. Paying your starting point-guard $141M max money to put up cold hard numbers in the playoffs sucks. Paying your other starting wing $128M max money just to sit out each year and esp during significant events sucks. Lack of an average-level bench sucks. The Lakers rolling their way to the Finals sucks.

The End.

Horrible.

[gouki88]

Tatum is just garbage in this series, he's no Durant.

So far this series he's averaging 26/10/5 with 4 turnovers on 44/29/88 shooting. Turnovers and missed 3s aside he's been a pretty awesome player this series for a 22 year-old. JT has also upped his FTAs to 9 a game against the Heat, which is what I've always thought has been the main difference between he and the truly elite scorers in the game.

Kevin Durant in the 2011 series against Dallas: 28/9/4 with 4 turnovers on 43/23/88 shooting.

The parallels are quite clearly there. He's a better passer than Durant was at the same age, but Durant was more physically imposing (3 inch height difference plus his 7'4 wingspan).

[Stig]

The end of the story is they didn’t win a champion, they didn’t even make the finals again, Durant and Harden left the team and the Thunder stopped being relevant.

[PhoSita]

The end of the story is they didn’t win a champion, they didn’t even make the finals again, Durant and Harden left the team and the Thunder stopped being relevant.

Will the story be different this time?

Only way to find out is to stay tuned.

[Somebody]

A couple of things.

Durant in 2011 was a considerably superior prospect compared to Tatum: he was an all time great scorer at that point in his career with averages of 27.6 points per 75 on +4.8% rTS (and those RS numbers were unusually low for him, he averaged 29.5 points per 75 on +6.4% rTS the previous year and leapt past that level from 2012 onwards). His passing was fairly weak like Tatum's right now, but he also wasn't given the on-ball responsibilities that Tatum is enjoying right now until the next couple of seasons when he exploded as a playmaker in response to that increased responsibility.

Obviously Tatum has a significant defensive edge, but he doesn't move the needle on that end like a titanic big man: an All-Defensive wing doesn't create the separation from an average to slightly above average one to make up for the difference between an All-Star offensive weapon compared to a strong All-NBA attacker.

This isn't to say that Tatum is a poor player, but comparing him to an All-Time great like Durant is pretty disingenuous imo. Also that Thunder team was bursting with talent and potential: Durant's supporting cast had an All-Star calibre sidekick in Russell Westbrook at 22 years of age (as much as I love Brown, 2011 Westbrook is the superior prospect/player), an emerging block machine in Serge Ibaka and former 3rd pick James Harden who was doing a decent job as their sixth man. The Celtics simply don't have that collection of young talent and really can't compare to that Thunder team in terms of potential: our best bet to win a title in the foreseeable future is probably now with how "weak" our CF opponent is (yes the Heat might be a superior team compared to us without Hayward, but they're still one of the weaker conference finalists in NBA history even with the resurgence of Goran Dragic). Our "narrative" isn't going to end after this season, but we're not going to become title-winning favourites with normal organic growth.

The Brown/Mitchell relationship is interesting though, adding him to the duo of Brown and Tatum would make us a really strong team assuming he continues growing as a player.

[rocknrollforyoursoul]

This is what I'm thinking about tonight, with the Celts down 0-2 to Jimmy B, Bam, and the Miami White Boys.  The Celts are ahead of schedule. No matter what happens in the next couple of games, I believe in Tatum, Brown, and Smart.  I believe that Ainge will find ways to improve the firepower coming off the bench and give the Celts more of a paint presence.  I believe that Brad will gather lots of valuable information (noting the ways Spo is out-coaching him), and use it to win future playoff series.

This is where you lost me, Pho. When was the last time Ainge acquired some real firepower for the bench? House and Posey a decade ago? And when was the last time he got the team a real paint presence? Kanter (whom I like) is a great offensive presence in the paint, but weak defensively. Rob Williams has some potential but is a bit of a project (and Brad doesn't even always play him). Theis gets owned by real bigs.

Danny mainly likes small "bigs," and combo guards who can't shoot. So we have a great wing rotation, and a point guard who's solid (until about a week ago, that is), but little firepower in the middle or off the bench. And I don't see Danny changing his ways in those regards anytime soon.

Let me tell you a story.

Brad Stevens sucks. Being down 0-2 sucks. Blowing 17-point lead sucks. Holding the ball with final possession in regulation just to brick a terrible 27-foot 3-pointer sucks. Paying your starting point-guard $141M max money to put up cold hard numbers in the playoffs sucks. Paying your other starting wing $128M max money just to sit out each year and esp during significant events sucks. Lack of an average-level bench sucks. The Lakers rolling their way to the Finals sucks.

The End.

Horrible.

LOL, this is awesome. TP for the laugh and the pithy summation of this team's reality.

[gouki88]

A couple of things.

Durant in 2011 was a considerably superior prospect compared to Tatum: he was an all time great scorer at that point in his career with averages of 27.6 points per 75 on +4.8% rTS (and those RS numbers were unusually low for him, he averaged 29.5 points per 75 on +6.4% rTS the previous year and leapt past that level from 2012 onwards). His passing was fairly weak like Tatum's right now, but he also wasn't given the on-ball responsibilities that Tatum is enjoying right now until the next couple of seasons when he exploded as a playmaker in response to that increased responsibility.

Obviously Tatum has a significant defensive edge, but he doesn't move the needle on that end like a titanic big man: an All-Defensive wing doesn't create the separation from an average to slightly above average one to make up for the difference between an All-Star offensive weapon compared to a strong All-NBA attacker.

This isn't to say that Tatum is a poor player, but comparing him to an All-Time great like Durant is pretty disingenuous imo. Also that Thunder team was bursting with talent and potential: Durant's supporting cast had an All-Star calibre sidekick in Russell Westbrook at 22 years of age (as much as I love Brown, 2011 Westbrook is the superior prospect/player), an emerging block machine in Serge Ibaka and former 3rd pick James Harden who was doing a decent job as their sixth man. The Celtics simply don't have that collection of young talent and really can't compare to that Thunder team in terms of potential: our best bet to win a title in the foreseeable future is probably now with how "weak" our CF opponent is (yes the Heat might be a superior team compared to us without Hayward, but they're still one of the weaker conference finalists in NBA history even with the resurgence of Goran Dragic). Our "narrative" isn't going to end after this season, but we're not going to become title-winning favourites with normal organic growth.

The Brown/Mitchell relationship is interesting though, adding him to the duo of Brown and Tatum would make us a really strong team assuming he continues growing as a player.

I've seen a lot about the Brown/Mitchell friendship. That would be a serious addition. I quite seriously have no idea how we'd get him while he's on his rookie deal, but that would be a legit nightmare big 3. Could be dominating the league for years.

I think we're pretty close to a title though, if we address some key areas. Adding some dynamism off the bench through the draft (guys like Kira Lewis) or trading for a guy like DRose or Clarkson would help offset our weaknesses quite a lot in my opinion, as well as a defensive minded bruising big - Baynes please come home!.

This is all predicated on us being healthy, which seems like a fantasy, lol, but I do think we could win it with 1 x All-NBA talent, 3 x All-Star talents and 1 x borderline All-Star talent and some holes in our bench shored up.

Maybe Hayward's return sparks something

[LilRip]

Disagreed

Tatum and Brown have been here before. Smart’s been here before. Butler has never. Dragic has never. Bam Adebayo, Herro and Duncan Robinson have all never been here before.

If anything, we’re the team on schedule. We’ve taken our playoff losses and lost to LeBron and Giannis and the other superstars. Just because Fire and Ice are young doesn’t mean they’re inexperienced.

[mef730]

In the spirit of the OP's subject line, I have written a little ditty. True Bostonians won't have to ask what tune to sing it to.

Mike

Well let me tell you the story of a man named Stevens
On a tragic and fateful day
Bought a ticket to the bubble, kissed his wife and family
Went to coach in the N-B-A

Well will he ever return, yes he will return
And the title will be earned...
Brad may coach forever on the streets of Causeway
He's the man, who will always return

The Celtics took on the Sixers on Orlando's court
And faced off against Joel Embiid
When the good guys got there it was no big challenge
Time to bring on Fred Van Vleet

Well will he ever return, yes he will return
And the title will be earned...
Brad may coach forever on the streets of Causeway
He's the man, who will always return

Now all day long Celtics fans worry and fret
Because Miami is up by two
But fear not soon we've got Gordon Hayward to lead the team
And the Cs will go rumblin' through

Well will he ever return, yes he will return
And the title will be earned...
Brad may coach forever on the streets of Causeway
He's the man, who will always return

Now you citizens of Boston like to worry way too much
'Bout our boys out there in green
Beat the Heat and then bring on the Lakers
Soon we'll be hanging banner 18

Well will he ever return, yes he will return
And the title will be earned...
Brad may coach forever on the streets of Causeway
He's the man, who will always return

Mike

[celts55]

Let me tell you a story.

Brad Stevens sucks. Being down 0-2 sucks. Blowing 17-point lead sucks. Holding the ball with final possession in regulation just to brick a terrible 27-foot 3-pointer sucks. Paying your starting point-guard $141M max money to put up cold hard numbers in the playoffs sucks. Paying your other starting wing $128M max money just to sit out each year and esp during significant events sucks. Lack of an average-level bench sucks. The Lakers rolling their way to the Finals sucks.

The End.

Horrible.

Think that sums it up

[CelticsBR]

This is what I'm thinking about tonight, with the Celts down 0-2 to Jimmy B, Bam, and the Miami White Boys.  The Celts are ahead of schedule. No matter what happens in the next couple of games, I believe in Tatum, Brown, and Smart.  I believe that Ainge will find ways to improve the firepower coming off the bench and give the Celts more of a paint presence.  I believe that Brad will gather lots of valuable information (noting the ways Spo is out-coaching him), and use it to win future playoff series.

This is where you lost me, Pho. When was the last time Ainge acquired some real firepower for the bench? House and Posey a decade ago? And when was the last time he got the team a real paint presence? Kanter (whom I like) is a great offensive presence in the paint, but weak defensively. Rob Williams has some potential but is a bit of a project (and Brad doesn't even always play him). Theis gets owned by real bigs.

The Celtics had a super deep bench last season. Ainge did acquire some real firepower for the bench 2 years ago.

In a similar note, Baynes was a real paint presence. He is a legit starting 5 in the NBA.

[Ogaju]

The end of the story is they didn’t win a champion, they didn’t even make the finals again, Durant and Harden left the team and the Thunder stopped being relevant.

This!!! I also do not think they had a perennial MVP in Milwaukee or a sleeping giant in Philly, or a budding Dallas Mavericks team ...the league is not going to stand still for the Cs to get their act together.

[jbpats]

Another difference being is that Miami isn't a team of veterans. They have players, just as young and more inexperienced than the Celtics torching us.
Tyler Herro is just 20 years old
Duncan Robinson has only been in the league for a few years.
Bam is young as well

This is an inexperienced, hungry Heat team going against a young (but experienced) Celtics team. This is their 3rd ECF in 4 years. We should be the Mavericks in this scenario shouldn't we?