Poll

Do you believe the Celtics can still come back from down 3-1?

Yes
14 (41.2%)
No
20 (58.8%)

Total Members Voted: 34

Author Topic: [Down 2-0, Do You Believe?] Updated: Down 3-1...How 'bout now?  (Read 7912 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Re: Down 2-0, Do You Believe?
« Reply #105 on: September 21, 2020, 11:50:43 AM »

Offline Somebody

  • Rajon Rondo
  • *****
  • Posts: 5842
  • Tommy Points: 393
  • KANSEI DORIFUTO
Kemba is a major disappointment come playoff time.
Disagree with this. He's been exactly what he was in the regular season, except his 3 point shot has disappeared.

Against Philly he averaged 24/4/4 on 49/30/92 shooting splits.

Against Toronto he averaged 17/6/4 on 42/28/84 shooting splits. Without his two shockers in G6 and G7 his averages are a quite rosy 20/6.5/3.5 on 49/32/89 shooting splits.

Against Miami he is averaging 21/5/5 on 40/25/78 shooting splits.

I get that his efficiency has been down, but that happens to most small guards come playoff time. He has been one of our best in some games (G4 against Philly, G1 against Toronto, G3 against Toronto, G2 against Miami). He has had bad games, and I've been as mad as anyone. But I would really love to know your expectations if he's been a 'major disappointment'

I wouldn't say it's been a "major" disappointment, but I have been hoping for more from him. The dip in 3-pt percentage is a problem for the Cs, and he hasn't made up for it in other areas. I don't see better game management or ball distribution. He's contributed to stagnant ball movement, and especially against Toronto, failed iso-ball.

Size can be a problem for in the playoffs, but I don't think that's all there is to it. Kyle Lowry and Fred Van Vleet are both listed at 6'0". It's true that Toronto's out of the playoffs, but Pascal Siakam had a lot more to do with that. Lowry was probably the second best player in that series (to Tatum) and I'm sure some people would say he was the best.

Wanamaker seems to have raised his game as well.
I feel like FVV is a more apt comparison than Lowry, because Lowry is built similarly to Marcus Smart.

FVV however is a skill-based small guard, and he majorly struggled these playoffs. Against us he shot 35% from the field and 30% from 3. Now, weíre an elite defence, but even against BKN he struggled. Most players take some efficiency hits during the playoffs, itís just been my experience that small finessing guards can be hit more by it. Even the most unstoppable of them (Curry and Lillard) experience this, and theyíre bigger than Kemba
Besides games when he was playing through injuries, Curry actually hasn't really experienced a notable dip (in the sense that his dip isn't larger than that of what the average superstar experiences) come playoff time. Shame that he hurt himself in his historic 2016 run, it eroded quite a bit of his value that season.

Re: Down 2-0, Do You Believe?
« Reply #106 on: September 21, 2020, 02:12:32 PM »

Offline footey

  • Ed Macauley
  • ***********
  • Posts: 11615
  • Tommy Points: 1450
I still think we get this series 4:2.

Miami already used their lucky punches.
Hay is back, we are a better team overall.
Need to be ready for Spoelstra's adjustments in Game 4
That will be the real acid test
I expect Heat to come out all guns blazing at the start of G4 and attempt to build a big lead. They seemed mad that they had always given up big leads early in games1thru3 
I expect them to address this issue after studying film
Celtics have to be ready for Heat getting Bam and Dragic more involved in an attacking sense right from the tip off
Maybe I'm mistaking but I feel like the reason why Heat trailed big in every game is that they are simply an inferior team.

Don't want Celtics to be complacent that's why the big leads disappeared
Hence be ready for Spoelstra's expected adjustments
Would also like to see the athleticism of Timelord used to defend Bam when Theis gets into early foul trouble
It remains to be seen. I do wonder if he has the room for adjustments within his personnel.

Regarding RW, I don't think this is a series for him.
The game demands many quick reads and Rob isn't the one who can make them correctly.
That is the main reason why he hasn't played much in the 1st place.

Disagree. The few minutes he matched up vs Bam, he played well.  He matches up vs Bam better than any of our centers, it is not even close. And I continue to harp on this because Bam is the guy who leads the guy who kills us the most.   Plus Bam is not a pick and pop center, which is where Rob struggles.

Yes, but the Celtics switch everything and Robert Williams cannot cover the perimeter.  Neither can Kanter, but Kanter puts pressure on the Heat to secure rebounds and he is a threat to score inside.  It seemed to me that Grant Williams was effective as was the small ball lineup, because it can draw Adebayo out of the middle and gives the Celtics a chance to drive.  I like the idea of attacking Duncan Robinson and getting him into foul trouble to disrupt his rhythm.  I am hoping they can be effective doing that with Dragic or Herro as well, but they seem more savvy at the defensive end.

Let's not let our guard down in game 4.  The Heat are ready to pounce on mistakes and although we have looked like the better team talent wise, we have not looked as locked in as the Heat for the majority of the series, IMO.  Even in the last game, we almost blew a big lead again.  The flagrant foul on Jaylen Brown, some missed passes, etc.  These mistakes have been extremely costly in this series and focus and attention to detail are so important, along with staying ultra aggressive in getting to the hoop.

In 9 minutes game 3 Grant Williams was a minus -11, so I don't get your love for him in this moment. 

Theis can't cover perimeter any better than Rob Williams. go back and look at the Raptors' series, most of Ibaka's open 3 pointers were with Theis defending, not Williams. How many times have we seen the ball just bounce beyond the reach of Theis that Rob would have grabbed to start the next fast break?  Plenty.  In game 1, only 11 minutes Rob has played, he grabbed 4 rebounds, blocked a shot and scored a bucket (1 for 1 of course).  In every game in which we have dominated while in the ore-playoff bubble, Rob has been a major factor. 

Re: Down 2-0, Do You Believe?
« Reply #107 on: September 21, 2020, 03:15:44 PM »

Offline Surferdad

  • Ed Macauley
  • ***********
  • Posts: 11465
  • Tommy Points: 783
  • "He fiddles...and diddles..."
I think these are two very evenly matched teams, up and down.  I don't buy the conclusion that the Heat are clearly inferior.  Or if they are, they are not by all that much.  At least not so long as Herro and Robinson continue to play the way they have.

I think that historically, as the playoffs/series get deeper and the pressure ramps up, younger guys tend to feel it more than veterans.  Now Duncan Robinson (born York, ME, attended Williams College) is 26.  He is actually older than Brown and Tatum and the same age as Smart.  This is his second year and I think his first playoff experience but being 26 is a lot different than being 20 like Herro.  I will be curious how these two guys hold up as things progress in the series.

Our key young guys, primarily Tatum and Brown are young but they have an unusual amount of playoff experience, and experience being a key player, for such young players.  With the ability to lean on Walker and now Hayward as veterans, I hope these guys to hold up and continue to play well.  To me, that is a key part of the equation with Hayward, he is a solid veteran and helps us to equalize the experience advantage that the Heat have on us.

My prediction now is that Herro and Robinson will falter some, Dragic, Crowder, and Butler will continue to play well as veterans, but now with Hayward back and the novelty of the zone starting to wear off, advantage Celtics.  Slight advantage though, this could still easily go either way based on a couple of lucky shots or a call or two by the refs.  I see things as that close.
Wow didnt know Duncan is 26. Our young studs have a crazy amount of playoff experience, maybe someone can pull out some stats, but having players that young with dozens of playoffs wins as key contributors must be historically good. Regarding the lucky shots you mentioned in the end of your post - like Androslav said, they already used up their lucky punches, one would think you only get a limited amount of those. Let's see!!

Rather than focus on lucky Heat 3s I prefer to see an attitude that is more committed to Stop the 3s. 3s are a big part of Heat Offense and also of the Raptors Offense in the previous series. When 3s are an important focus of such opponents scoring then it's more than luck that makes them fall. I did see Robinson practicing his 3s in the pre-game warm up and he didn't seem to miss. If Celtics can lock down Heat 3s in the same way they shut down Raptors in Game 5 of the previous series this immediately removes Heats ability to over turn Celtics leads.
I agree with everything said, but in the buble atmosphere I don't think age and experience will have that greater impact, especially when we are talking about these series "experience range", we have some but, not a lot, neither the heat..
Yeah, don't I think I agree with that.  I feel like experience, especially playoff experience is a big factor.  In that respect, getting Gordy back is huge, IMO.  Now I know he doesn't have much conference finals experience but he is just such a versatile player who handles the ball well and rarely makes big mistakes.

Re: Down 2-0, Do You Believe?
« Reply #108 on: September 21, 2020, 03:29:26 PM »

Offline nyceltsfan

  • Daniel Theis
  • Posts: 232
  • Tommy Points: 22
I still think we get this series 4:2.

Miami already used their lucky punches.
Hay is back, we are a better team overall.
Need to be ready for Spoelstra's adjustments in Game 4
That will be the real acid test
I expect Heat to come out all guns blazing at the start of G4 and attempt to build a big lead. They seemed mad that they had always given up big leads early in games1thru3 
I expect them to address this issue after studying film
Celtics have to be ready for Heat getting Bam and Dragic more involved in an attacking sense right from the tip off
Maybe I'm mistaking but I feel like the reason why Heat trailed big in every game is that they are simply an inferior team.

Don't want Celtics to be complacent that's why the big leads disappeared
Hence be ready for Spoelstra's expected adjustments
Would also like to see the athleticism of Timelord used to defend Bam when Theis gets into early foul trouble
It remains to be seen. I do wonder if he has the room for adjustments within his personnel.

Regarding RW, I don't think this is a series for him.
The game demands many quick reads and Rob isn't the one who can make them correctly.
That is the main reason why he hasn't played much in the 1st place.

Disagree. The few minutes he matched up vs Bam, he played well.  He matches up vs Bam better than any of our centers, it is not even close. And I continue to harp on this because Bam is the guy who leads the guy who kills us the most.   Plus Bam is not a pick and pop center, which is where Rob struggles.

Yes, but the Celtics switch everything and Robert Williams cannot cover the perimeter.  Neither can Kanter, but Kanter puts pressure on the Heat to secure rebounds and he is a threat to score inside.  It seemed to me that Grant Williams was effective as was the small ball lineup, because it can draw Adebayo out of the middle and gives the Celtics a chance to drive.  I like the idea of attacking Duncan Robinson and getting him into foul trouble to disrupt his rhythm.  I am hoping they can be effective doing that with Dragic or Herro as well, but they seem more savvy at the defensive end.

Let's not let our guard down in game 4.  The Heat are ready to pounce on mistakes and although we have looked like the better team talent wise, we have not looked as locked in as the Heat for the majority of the series, IMO.  Even in the last game, we almost blew a big lead again.  The flagrant foul on Jaylen Brown, some missed passes, etc.  These mistakes have been extremely costly in this series and focus and attention to detail are so important, along with staying ultra aggressive in getting to the hoop.

In 9 minutes game 3 Grant Williams was a minus -11, so I don't get your love for him in this moment. 

Theis can't cover perimeter any better than Rob Williams. go back and look at the Raptors' series, most of Ibaka's open 3 pointers were with Theis defending, not Williams. How many times have we seen the ball just bounce beyond the reach of Theis that Rob would have grabbed to start the next fast break?  Plenty.  In game 1, only 11 minutes Rob has played, he grabbed 4 rebounds, blocked a shot and scored a bucket (1 for 1 of course).  In every game in which we have dominated while in the ore-playoff bubble, Rob has been a major factor.

I was not aware that Grant Williams was a negative last game.  Thank you for pointing it out.  My main point was that I think playing our style and going small, regardless of the Miami lineup, seems to yield decent results, particularly with Hayward back.  If we play our 5 best players together to end the game, the biggest problem we have is rebounding, but Tatum and Hayward will have to play slightly above their size to make it happen.

If we can build a reasonable lead again in Game 4, I trust the small lineup to close out the game because I think we can take the 3 point shot away best with this lineup.  If Bam is the only threat inside, we can live with that as long as we don't foul.  I trust our squad to play evenly with the Heat at that point in time.

My point about Grant Williams was just from the eye test.  He seemed comfortable out there and looked like he could play in this particular matchup, but if you are telling me the numbers say otherwise, I will go back and re-evaluate.

Re: Down 2-0, Do You Believe?
« Reply #109 on: September 23, 2020, 11:11:06 PM »

Offline Phantom255x

  • Reggie Lewis
  • ***************
  • Posts: 15697
  • Tommy Points: 1455
  • On To Banner 18!
I no longer believe  :(

They could win Game 5 but Miami should have this series in the bag. 
"Tough times never last, but tough people do." - Robert H. Schuller

Re: Down 2-0, Do You Believe?
« Reply #110 on: September 23, 2020, 11:15:52 PM »

Offline CelticSooner

  • Danny Ainge
  • **********
  • Posts: 10102
  • Tommy Points: 700
  • GOT IT!!!
I no longer believe  :(

They could win Game 5 but Miami should have this series in the bag.

It's really hard to come back from 3-1. No shame in that. This C's team helps out the opponent too much to think they'll all of sudden stop doing so.

Re: Down 2-0, Do You Believe?
« Reply #111 on: September 23, 2020, 11:22:01 PM »

Online Roy H.

  • Forums Manager
  • James Naismith
  • *********************************
  • Posts: 42665
  • Tommy Points: -27082
  • 33,333 posts and counting . . .
I think weíre better, so Iíll believe in each individual game.
Once a CrotoNat, always a CrotoNat. CelticsBlog Draft Champions, 2009 & 2012.

Re: Down 2-0, Do You Believe?
« Reply #112 on: September 23, 2020, 11:23:46 PM »

Offline PhoSita

  • NCE
  • Johnny Most
  • ********************
  • Posts: 20170
  • Tommy Points: 1961
The Heat are just on a different level in terms of focus and execution.

The Celtics need a couple more veteran guys. Guys who have been there before. Celts are a year or two too young and a couple guys short.

It's tough to watch but also feels like they're losing to a team the deserves to beat them.


I don't exactly understand why the Celts are so bad at executing in the fourth quarter or why the Heat are so much better, but I don't feel like a team that I trust so little in the fourth quarter deserves to make the finals.
Youíll have to excuse my lengthinessóthe reason I dread writing letters is because I am so apt to get to slinging wisdom & forget to let up. Thus much precious time is lost.
- Mark Twain

Re: Down 2-0, Do You Believe?
« Reply #113 on: September 23, 2020, 11:26:29 PM »

Offline CelticsElite

  • NCE
  • Danny Ainge
  • **********
  • Posts: 10382
  • Tommy Points: 772
I no longer believe  :(

They could win Game 5 but Miami should have this series in the bag.

It's really hard to come back from 3-1. No shame in that. This C's team helps out the opponent too much to think they'll all of sudden stop doing so.
of course itís hard to come back from 3-1...  But if there was a team with the sufficient enough talent to pull it off, itís this one. They just need to flip the switch already and bring it for 4 quarters a game

Re: Down 2-0, Do You Believe?
« Reply #114 on: September 23, 2020, 11:28:20 PM »

Offline Somebody

  • Rajon Rondo
  • *****
  • Posts: 5842
  • Tommy Points: 393
  • KANSEI DORIFUTO
I no longer believe  :(

They could win Game 5 but Miami should have this series in the bag.

It's really hard to come back from 3-1. No shame in that. This C's team helps out the opponent too much to think they'll all of sudden stop doing so.
of course itís hard to come back from 3-1...  But if there was a team with the sufficient enough talent to pull it off, itís this one. They just need to flip the switch already and bring it for 4 quarters a game
^this. We could also use some Murray/Herro bubble magic for one of our guys :laugh:

Re: Down 2-0, Do You Believe?
« Reply #115 on: September 23, 2020, 11:28:23 PM »

Online SparzWizard

  • Satch Sanders
  • *********
  • Posts: 9451
  • Tommy Points: 557
This team is not going to change and not going to adjust. They're going to keep continuing to make dumb passes that result in turnovers and take ridiculous 3's pretending they're Curry and end up clanking. Repeating the same mistakes over and over and over. Brad is gonna continue to have his hands in his pocket walking up and down that sideline until they're down 9 points with less than a minute to go in the 4th to start getting serious but it will already be too late

And I don't see the Denver Nuggets in these Celtics lol. Not against the resilient Miami Heat.

Re: Down 2-0, Do You Believe?
« Reply #116 on: September 23, 2020, 11:29:58 PM »

Offline BringToughnessBack

  • Rajon Rondo
  • *****
  • Posts: 5846
  • Tommy Points: 648
Limit turnovers and we win 3 in a row...one task

Re: Down 2-0, Do You Believe?
« Reply #117 on: September 23, 2020, 11:31:17 PM »

Offline CelticsElite

  • NCE
  • Danny Ainge
  • **********
  • Posts: 10382
  • Tommy Points: 772
1 game at a time.. like pierce use to say

Re: Down 2-0, Do You Believe?
« Reply #118 on: September 23, 2020, 11:33:46 PM »

Online ozgod

  • Don Nelson
  • ********
  • Posts: 8262
  • Tommy Points: 530
I no longer believe  :(

They could win Game 5 but Miami should have this series in the bag.

It's really hard to come back from 3-1. No shame in that. This C's team helps out the opponent too much to think they'll all of sudden stop doing so.
of course itís hard to come back from 3-1...  But if there was a team with the sufficient enough talent to pull it off, itís this one. They just need to flip the switch already and bring it for 4 quarters a game

Denver did it twice. But yes we need to bring the force for 48 mins. Cut down the turnovers and adapt to Spoelstra's adjustments better. 19 turnovers to 8 we won't win if we don't take care of the ball. And Spoelstra was determined that we weren't going to score 60 points in the point tonight so he packed the paint with his zone and dared us to drive and kick and beat us from the perimeter. In response we committed turnovers trying to drive against the zone and shot 35% from 3, which was only because Tatum got into his groove in the 2nd half.

Herro had a career game too, 37 points you have to take your hat off to the kid. He shot 14-21 or 66% overall and 5-10 or 50% from 3, in comparison the rest  of the Heat shot 25-70 or 35% overall and 5-27 or 18%.  The Celtics actually shot better than the Heat, we were 47% overall and 35% from 3.

Turnovers and Herro killed us.
Any odd typos are because I suck at typing on an iPhone :D

Re: Down 2-0, Do You Believe?
« Reply #119 on: September 24, 2020, 04:31:40 AM »

Offline Scottiej23

  • Jaylen Brown
  • Posts: 593
  • Tommy Points: 120
What about if Brad yells and screams more, but we still lose?