Predictions: Celtics vs. Heat

[apc]

 Poor Kanter, I don’t see him getting any meaningful minutes in this series.

[SHAQATTACK]

Poor Kanter, I don’t see him getting any meaningful minutes in this series.

Watching him.  he loves his team and is great cheerleader from the sidelines. He is valuable in that respect 

[td450]

For me, what really makes the Heat scary is their defensive versatility. They match up fairly well with us across the board. Unless Tatum has a cape or we luck into an OG 3-pointer, we’re likely looking at another game 7.

For the C’s to win, they need to contain the 3 pointers. We can weather the Butler show. It’s the 3’s that will push Miami to victory

I agree with this 100%

I don't see that. I really like our matchups with Kemba, Jayson and Jaylen. The way they play, we will always have someone for Kemba to hide on, and their defense is weakest there. We can force Butler to work flat out on both ends, and no way Crowder or Iggy can stay with Jaylen or Jayson. We can maintain lockdown defenders on Butler and Dragic.

This will be easier than Toronto. We win this in 5 or 6.

[keevsnick]

The dfeenisve matchups are ging to be fascinating just looking at the starters I'd say you go

Thies vs Bam
Brown vs Butler
Tatum vs Dragic
Kemba vs Crowder
Smart vs Robinson

Why? Well The big man matchup is obvious, I guess you could put Brown on Bam some but then you have Theis guarding perimeter players which takes him out of position to protect the paint. Smart could take Butler but big wings are typically the only player type smart doesn't do great against, Jaylen has the strength and length to compete with Butler. The last three are hard, you could probably g an number of ways. You coudl try Smart on Dragic if Tatum ends up not being able to handle him (like we did with Lowry second half of the series), but to start Smart is probably your bets at getting threw screens which makes him useful on the shooter Robinson and Hero. Then "hide" kemba on their least talented offensive player Crowder.

I wouldn't put Tatum on Dragic unless we want Dragic to pour in 30 point bombs throughout the series - Tatum is a traffic cone against speedy guards with skill.

Yeah, Smart has to get Dragic. His craftiness and all his unorthodox left-handed finishes are hard to defend against. Dragic also doesn't draw too many fouls so Smart should be able to play aggressively in that. Hopefully Butler doesn't get Brown in foul trouble

Ya like i said they started with Tatum on Lowry last series, which lead me to believe Tatum vs Dragic may be the matchup but like I said by the end of the series they'd moved Tatum off Lowry because he couldn't stay in front of him so maybe they do just start Smart on Dragic, put Tatum on Crowder and live with Kemba tracking Hero and Robinson around screens.

Butler putting Brown in foul trouble is a concern,  the bigger concern might be him fouling theis out in  minutes when Theis comes to help on drives.

[JBcat]

The dfeenisve matchups are ging to be fascinating just looking at the starters I'd say you go

Thies vs Bam
Brown vs Butler
Tatum vs Dragic
Kemba vs Crowder
Smart vs Robinson

Why? Well The big man matchup is obvious, I guess you could put Brown on Bam some but then you have Theis guarding perimeter players which takes him out of position to protect the paint. Smart could take Butler but big wings are typically the only player type smart doesn't do great against, Jaylen has the strength and length to compete with Butler. The last three are hard, you could probably g an number of ways. You coudl try Smart on Dragic if Tatum ends up not being able to handle him (like we did with Lowry second half of the series), but to start Smart is probably your bets at getting threw screens which makes him useful on the shooter Robinson and Hero. Then "hide" kemba on their least talented offensive player Crowder.

I wouldn't put Tatum on Dragic unless we want Dragic to pour in 30 point bombs throughout the series - Tatum is a traffic cone against speedy guards with skill.

Yeah, Smart has to get Dragic. His craftiness and all his unorthodox left-handed finishes are hard to defend against. Dragic also doesn't draw too many fouls so Smart should be able to play aggressively in that. Hopefully Butler doesn't get Brown in foul trouble

Ya like i said they started with Tatum on Lowry last series, which lead me to believe Tatum vs Dragic may be the matchup but like I said by the end of the series they'd moved Tatum off Lowry because he couldn't stay in front of him so maybe they do just start Smart on Dragic, put Tatum on Crowder and live with Kemba tracking Hero and Robinson around screens.

Butler putting Brown in foul trouble is a concern,  the bigger concern might be him fouling theis out in  minutes when Theis comes to help on drives.

I’d put Tatum on Crowder, Smart on Dragic, and Walker on Robinson.  Crowder has been shooting the 3’s extremely well so putting Tatum on him will help.  I’m not too concerned with Brown getting in foul trouble.  You can switch off and put Tatum on Butler for stretches, and we have hopefully Hayward, and even Semi if needed for stretches. 

[hpantazo]

I have to think that the NBA would much prefer a Celtics-Lakers or Celtics-Clippers Finals than the Heat up against either of those 2 teams. That has to work in our favor at least a little.

[RockinRyA]

Poor Kanter, I don’t see him getting any meaningful minutes in this series.

Watching him.  he loves his team and is great cheerleader from the sidelines. He is valuable in that respect 

Yeah saw Kanter after the buzzer and he has this huge legitimate smile on his face. He loves this team.

[gouki88]

I have to think that the NBA would much prefer a Celtics-Lakers or Celtics-Clippers Finals than the Heat up against either of those 2 teams. That has to work in our favor at least a little.

I think they would be pretty mad if it was a Nuggets-Heat Finals, lol

[SHAQATTACK]

How about Celtics in 4 . 

[bopna]

Crowder has been “on fire” from 3pt range this playoff run.
I am talking Steph Curry hot!

Stopping him, Herro and Robinson is the key.  Even more so than stopping Jimmy Buttler or Adebayo.  Seriously.  As weird as it sounds, that’s the key.

Agreed -- like the Spurs when they played Steve Nash's Phoenix Suns teams - you gotta stay at home on shooters and allow Nash/Amare score. Stop the three point shot, beat the Suns.

Same model for Miami. Stop their shooters. Let Jimmy Butler play one-on-one and make him beat you. Make someone step up and be a 2nd and 3rd scorer playing one-on-one basketball -- they won't, they can't, Miami do not have players who can do that.

Stay at home on the shooters and make Jimmy Butler score. Let him get 30+pts every night. They'll lose.

Miami can't score enough if you take away their spot up three point shooters.

Agree....this is the best way to beat Miami.

Butler will not even score 30 or more in all of the games but maybe a game or two because of the defense he will face...but if you let Duncan Robinson and tyler hero loose, we are screwed.

[footey]

FYI, majority (11 to 10) of ESPN experts (LOL) pick Heat over Celtics.

Basically a toss up.

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/29878951/nba-playoffs-2020-experts-picks-celtics-heat-eastern-conference-finals

[wdleehi]

Celtics in 6.


Celtics defend the three point line where the Buck don't

[Tr1boy]

Heat fans are extremely cocky right now

Basically that Celts will have no answer for Bam... like he is the 2nd coming of..

He is good. Very good. But I will like to see what Timelord can do against him 

Heat also love to run around like headless chickens vs Celtics.  Especially passing to KO or Bam at the FT line (after switching them with smaller players)

Brad will need to figure this out.  Maybe don't chase and play a zone type D instead. Let KO beat you with the 3.  But prevent the inside outside game, wearing down the D

I have a good feeling of Brown able to neutralize Butler, Smart neutralize Dragic or Hero,  Tatum abuse Duncan Robinson.  But once the switching and mismatches happen, thats when problems can arise

   

[DefenseWinsChamps]

Heat fans are extremely cocky right now

Basically that Celts will have no answer for Bam... like he is the 2nd coming of..

He is good. Very good. But I will like to see what Timelord can do against him 

Heat also love to run around like headless chickens vs Celtics.  Especially passing to KO or Bam at the FT line (after switching them with smaller players)

Brad will need to figure this out.  Maybe don't chase and play a zone type D instead. Let KO beat you with the 3.  But prevent the inside outside game, wearing down the D

I have a good feeling of Brown able to neutralize Butler, Smart neutralize Dragic or Hero,  Tatum abuse Duncan Robinson.  But once the switching and mismatches happen, thats when problems can arise

 

People act like Bam is a 30ppg scorer. We need an answer for a 15ppg guy?

The truth is that we will probably make Bam have to score to win this series. If his numbers are more like 15 ppg with 5 apg, the Heat offense will be much better than if Bam is more like 21ppg and 2apg. We want him to have to create in order to score inside. If your offensive plan leans on the scoring effectiveness of a 15ppg guy, it's flimsy.

We need to help Theis, Grant, Rob, and even some Kanter in order to contain, but we can't compromise the defense and leave shooters in order to help. I also think the Cs will use Jaylen Brown at times on Bam. He was so good against Siakim but Bam has about 30 more pounds of muscle.

[Tr1boy]

Heat fans are extremely cocky right now

Basically that Celts will have no answer for Bam... like he is the 2nd coming of..

He is good. Very good. But I will like to see what Timelord can do against him 

Heat also love to run around like headless chickens vs Celtics.  Especially passing to KO or Bam at the FT line (after switching them with smaller players)

Brad will need to figure this out.  Maybe don't chase and play a zone type D instead. Let KO beat you with the 3.  But prevent the inside outside game, wearing down the D

I have a good feeling of Brown able to neutralize Butler, Smart neutralize Dragic or Hero,  Tatum abuse Duncan Robinson.  But once the switching and mismatches happen, thats when problems can arise

 

People act like Bam is a 30ppg scorer. We need an answer for a 15ppg guy?

The truth is that we will probably make Bam have to score to win this series. If his numbers are more like 15 ppg with 5 apg, the Heat offense will be much better than if Bam is more like 21ppg and 2apg. We want him to have to create in order to score inside. If your offensive plan leans on the scoring effectiveness of a 15ppg guy, it's flimsy.

We need to help Theis, Grant, Rob, and even some Kanter in order to contain, but we can't compromise the defense and leave shooters in order to help. I also think the Cs will use Jaylen Brown at times on Bam. He was so good against Siakim but Bam has about 30 more pounds of muscle.

It won't be that easy to pair Brown onto Bam

If you remember last game, there was a rotation between Theis, Tatum, Brown, Smart.... and Bam just got whistle calls after whistle calls and several and ones

On top of this, worry about 7ft and much more mobile KO.   

We will need Timelord to come up big again.   I'm afraid to play Kanter. But maybe in spurts can help rack up fouls on BAM and KO

The Celts did a great job against Raptors length trio of Ibaka, Anunoby and Siakam.   But Bam and KO are much better passers, + BAM ability to finish around the rim and KO ability to make the 3.   It will be a more difficult challenge