Predictions: Celtics vs. Heat

[SparzWizard]

Celtics in 6.

No Hayward early will play a role. I expect a blowout game and stepping down to their competition game.

your sig is relevant here

Boston/Miami playoff game very personal- never forget what they did to the C's in 2012. Plus, that PP34 shot over LBJ in Game 5 at Miami was one for the ages.

[SparzWizard]

What do you guys think of our old friend Crowder going up against Tatum and Brown? I think those two guys are salivating at their chance of going at him.

Rob Williams, Grant Williams, and Kanter vs Olynyk should be good too.

I just hope that thug Crowder don't take out Tatum/Brown like he did to Hayward in 2017 opening night against the Cavs. Another thing to hype up the revenge plot 

[DefenseWinsChamps]

What do you guys think of our old friend Crowder going up against Tatum and Brown? I think those two guys are salivating at their chance of going at him.

Rob Williams, Grant Williams, and Kanter vs Olynyk should be good too.

Crowder can keep up with Wes Matthews and Kris Middleton on defense, but I think he will struggle against Boston's quickness.

[DefenseWinsChamps]

I think Iggy is one of the biggest question marks. If he is still able to give lock-down minutes against Tatum, that could hurt Boston's offense a lot. He's basically a non-factor on offense though, which gives our scorers a place to hide so they can focus on offense.

[coco]

Crowder has been “on fire” from 3pt range this playoff run.
I am talking Steph Curry hot!

Stopping him, Herro and Robinson is the key.  Even more so than stopping Jimmy Buttler or Adebayo.  Seriously.  As weird as it sounds, that’s the key.

[slamtheking]

C's in 6.  I don't foresee any blowouts by the C's but I do think Kemba provides a better, more-consistent presence on offense this series.

[CelticsPoetry]

What do you guys think of our old friend Crowder going up against Tatum and Brown? I think those two guys are salivating at their chance of going at him.

Rob Williams, Grant Williams, and Kanter vs Olynyk should be good too.

Crowder can keep up with Wes Matthews and Kris Middleton on defense, but I think he will struggle against Boston's quickness.

My thoughts exactly. I seem to remember him not being able to keep up with faster, more athletic players.

[hpantazo]

The Heat have an interesting mix of players.

Four excellent defenders who can guard multiple positions in Adebayo, Iggy, Crowder and Butler.

Three guys who can kill you from the perimeter in Dragic, Herro and Robinson, and several others who can also hit from deep in Crowder Nunn and Olynyk.

Two guys who can beat you inside in Adebayo and Olynyk.

They also have two guys who can function as a closer in Butler and Dragic.


They are very versatile on both ends of the floor, it's going to be a good test for Stevens.

[Who]

Crowder has been “on fire” from 3pt range this playoff run.
I am talking Steph Curry hot!

Stopping him, Herro and Robinson is the key.  Even more so than stopping Jimmy Buttler or Adebayo.  Seriously.  As weird as it sounds, that’s the key.

Agreed -- like the Spurs when they played Steve Nash's Phoenix Suns teams - you gotta stay at home on shooters and allow Nash/Amare score. Stop the three point shot, beat the Suns.

Same model for Miami. Stop their shooters. Let Jimmy Butler play one-on-one and make him beat you. Make someone step up and be a 2nd and 3rd scorer playing one-on-one basketball -- they won't, they can't, Miami do not have players who can do that.

Stay at home on the shooters and make Jimmy Butler score. Let him get 30+pts every night. They'll lose.

Miami can't score enough if you take away their spot up three point shooters.

[Hoopvortex]

Prediction: Enes Kanter will play about as much as he did against Toronto.

Well that’s interesting.

I suspect you’re probably wrong, here’s why: Miami plays a slow tempo. Toronto plays pretty quick but in particular their offense is most effective when the floor is scrambled earlier in the clock. Kanter is least capable guarding on the run.

Having said that, Rob Williams gave the Celtics good minutes in the second round, including guarding out to the arc - and in the fourth quarter.

[DefenseWinsChamps]

Prediction: Enes Kanter will play about as much as he did against Toronto.

Well that’s interesting.

I suspect you’re probably wrong, here’s why: Miami plays a slow tempo. Toronto plays pretty quick but in particular their offense is most effective when the floor is scrambled earlier in the clock. Kanter is least capable guarding on the run.

Having said that, Rob Williams gave the Celtics good minutes in the second round, including guarding out to the arc - and in the fourth quarter.

When Dragic are/or Butler are the primary ball-handlers, I agree. I think he could see some minutes though.

[keevsnick]

Prediction: Enes Kanter will play about as much as he did against Toronto.

Well that’s interesting.

I suspect you’re probably wrong, here’s why: Miami plays a slow tempo. Toronto plays pretty quick but in particular their offense is most effective when the floor is scrambled earlier in the clock. Kanter is least capable guarding on the run.

Having said that, Rob Williams gave the Celtics good minutes in the second round, including guarding out to the arc - and in the fourth quarter.

I dont think the tempo matters when talking about Kanter. The question is does the opposing team have pick and roll guards who can and will attack him? MIA does, with Dragic and Butler. And on top of that they have a stretch big in Olynyk coming of the bench so its really hard to see how Kanter plays in this series.

[keevsnick]

Yeah, Celtics in 6. Though we matched up pretty well against Toronto due to our star power, they are a much, much better defensive (especially perimeter defense) team than Miami, and they had the tools to make it difficult for our perimeter guys, especially Kemba.

Miami really has NOTHING to throw at Kemba to contain him from getting in the lane this series, which will be a huge factor for us offensively. Our perimeter guys should have an easier time this series getting their shots, especially Kemba.

Offensively, Miami is just a little better version of Toronto offensively with their perimeter oriented offense, which plays right into our defensive scheme with our long and quick perimeter defenders. They do have the advantage of a closer in Jimmy, but we literally have half a dozen options to throw at him to make things difficult, so we should be able to contain him.

And I’m not sure why everyone is so worried about Bam. He’s good and will likely get his, but he’s not someone that will beat us himself or someone that will get others involved to beat us. I think Theis abd Timelord (hopefully more of the latter) will do just fine with him.

Ya I think this really comes down to kemba. MIA has 1 really great wing defender in Butler who probably matches up with Tatum, and two others in Jae and Iggy who can give him a breather and/or do a credible job on Brown/Hayward (when/if he returns).  What they dont have is any real guy to put on Kemba. They also dont have as much length inside, Bam is great but his main weapon is more versatility then straight up rim protection. I think if we can get their lesser defenders like Robinson, Hero, Dragic switched onto out larger wings we can generate good offense that way.

I do think you underestimate the difference between MIA and TOR offenses MIA at the very least has an alpha level finisher in Butler. But their weakness is that many of the best offensive options arent also great defensively, and vice versa. The have three guys playing above average on both sides right now, thats Butler, Bam and Jae (because of hot shooting). But the offensive players they do have can create and flat out shoot at a level toronto's can't.

I think assuming hayward plays not earlier than game 4 (which would be 5 weeks since injury) I'd have Celtics in 6.

[td450]

The Heat have an interesting mix of players.

Four excellent defenders who can guard multiple positions in Adebayo, Iggy, Crowder and Butler.

Three guys who can kill you from the perimeter in Dragic, Herro and Robinson, and several others who can also hit from deep in Crowder Nunn and Olynyk.

Two guys who can beat you inside in Adebayo and Olynyk.

They also have two guys who can function as a closer in Butler and Dragic.


They are very versatile on both ends of the floor, it's going to be a good test for Stevens.

To me, it boils down to Crowder and Iggy having to cover Tatum or Brown. I think they are both hard working wings who pay tough, but with Iggy at 36, they are giving up too much at this point athletically. We need to destroy them there, and play off that.

The other thing to consider is that Tatum/Brown/Smart are piling up the tough playoff games. For guys this young, they are accumulating a ton of playoff experience. It will matter

[DefenseWinsChamps]

Dragic is at 21ppg in the playoffs. That's a big reason for their success. Need to slow him down and keep him out of the lane and off his left hand.