Can we please stop with the idea that Tatum likely will get a max deal?

[ozgod]

Qualifiers make sense.  Nothing is ever guaranteed until it’s a done deal.  “Tatum will get a max contract unless...”  If you could think of any possible way to finish that sentence, then the max contract is likely but not guaranteed.

I honestly don't think there is an unless.  Even a major injury I don't think stops him from getting a max.  It would have to be basically a career ender and I just don't think that is worth a qualifier.

I think a ruptures Achilles, ACL or MCL that causes hi to miss most or all of  next season would probably be enough that he doesn't get a max deal. Keep in mind the cap will now likely be falling (or at least stalled) due to no fans in the arena which will mean that few teams will have the money to make him a max offer. Combined with the uncertainty of an injury and I think he'd have to take a "prove it" deal. But of course injury aside ya, he'll get the max.

Kevin Durant says 'hi'.

Tatum is not on Durant's level lol.

He also is 22 unlike Durant who is on the wrong side of 30.

And he hasn't shown the potential to be an MVP level player like Durant at 21/22. Obviously maxes aren't restricted to MVP level players, but an All-Starry wing getting a serious injury would dampen his value quite a lot even if he's young.

I don't know, obviously numbers aren't everything but his Year 3 numbers aren't that far off, other than the scoring...his rebounding, assists, eFG, are all in the ballpark. I added Melo in for giggles.



Also keep in mind that KD was basically The Guy in OKC his 3rd year, the only other players who averaged double figures were Jeff Green and Westbrook who both averaged 15ppg. KD had to carry them for the most part and he had a higher usage % than JT did:



Compare this with Tatum who has had to share the billing with Kemba, JT, Gordon and even Smart:



Obviously he's got a way to go to develop the consistency that KD displayed his first 3 years in the league and he's nowhere near the MVP conversation but he looked to have had his breakout in Feb until the pandemic curtailed things. Put it this way if he ends up getting to Durant's level in the next couple of years I wouldn't be surprised. But yeah if he gets a serious injury it could significantly affect his earning capacity.

[Somebody]

I don't know, obviously numbers aren't everything but his Year 3 numbers aren't that far off, other than the scoring...his rebounding, assists, eFG, are all in the ballpark. I added Melo in for giggles.



Also keep in mind that KD was basically The Guy in OKC his 3rd year, the only other players who averaged double figures were Jeff Green and Westbrook who both averaged 15ppg. KD had to carry them for the most part and he had a higher usage % than JT did:



Compare this with Tatum who has had to share the billing with Kemba, JT, Gordon and even Smart:



Obviously he's got a way to go to develop the consistency that KD displayed his first 3 years in the league and he's nowhere near the MVP conversation but he looked to have had his breakout in Feb until the pandemic curtailed things. Put it this way if he ends up getting to Durant's level in the next couple of years I wouldn't be surprised. But yeah if he gets a serious injury it could significantly affect his earning capacity.

To be fair the numbers paint a pretty good picture of what's going on - only when used with context. I actually think that Tatum is better than Durant at pretty much everything except for offence, but the gap between them offensively is huge! Durant's scoring is just on another level - his edge in efficiency and volume is actually larger than it looks in the per game raw slash line when you adjust for pace and league strength/quality (the league in 2010 was less efficient than what we have in 2020, so a 60% TS scorer back then is more impressive than one right now). I also think the fact that Durant carried such a heavy offensive load and lifted a less than impressive supporting cast to relevancy as an offensive vortex (the Thunder finished 12th in ORTG) strengthens the argument that his offence is on a different plane to Tatum's - I don't see Tatum leading an above average offence as the lone offensive star on the squad. Obviously we then get into the #1/#2/#3 argument, but Durant isn't any worse than Tatum as a complementary offensive star - they're both comparable shooters (Tatum's 3p% looks better in your picture, but Durant had to create more of his shots in 2010) and Durant is a better off-ball player than Tatum with a good chunk of his offence coming from him running around screens to initiate his attacks without getting into the more granular aspects (eg. gravity, offensive rebounding, etc). Tatum has a sizable edge on defence but it's hardly enough to close the gap between them on offence imo, I don't think he's close to being one of the best defensive forwards in league history this season.

But I think we agree on most things: Tatum isn't on young KD's level yet and will likely earn less if he suffers a serious injury.