Just to be clear, I like Toppin a lot, but this idea that GSW would take Toppin hands down is wrong to me not because I don't like him as a prospect, but because of the state of the NBA right now.
Spending a top lottery pick on a big who will not be dominate is just bad use of resources. You can easily get bigs to fill that role (at 80%) for minimum contracts or the MLE.
If Toppin could be as good as Embiid, then maybe, but he projects as another John Collins. He's a good NBA player, but can John Collins be part of a championship team?
Just from a sheer value perspective, it would be better for GSW to pick the wing with the highest upside who can also fit on their team.
For example, if Toppin became a 20-9-3 type player with average defense (that is hoping for a lot), and Okoro (who I don't like as much as some) becomes a 14-5-3 type player with good defense, Okoro will have more value around the NBA than Toppin.
Again, I like Toppin and think he will be a good NBA player, but the league values wings most right now. If you want to get value in the draft and there are no clear cut front-runners, its better to go with a wing.
GSW is deep on the backend
And since there is no "elite" talent from one of the backend position in this years draft, you pick based on needs
You can't have a lineup of Green, Wiggins, Thompson, Okoro, Curry.... that is miniature ball. Rockets are the only insane team to try to implement this and most experts agree it is doomed to fail.
If Okoro comes off the bench, than this is a waste (top 5 pick)
GSW lost a lot of size in Durant, Bogut, Mcgee etc
I rather have a John Collins (like you stated). And yes John Collins could be a starter on a championship team. Since they have a guy like Draymond Green "glueing" it together
I understand what you mean, but I do disagree with you. Rumors were that the Hawks were shopping Collins at the deadline. If a player like him were all that were necessary, wouldn't the Warriors trade their first for him?
Swing/Big scorers that are not elite, but can get 15-20 points a game with questionable defense are some of the lowest value players in the NBA. Collins, Randle, Kuzma, Barnes, and Chriss are all examples of this. If that piece was really all they needed, wouldn't they trade their first for Randle? Kuzma? Collins?
(Edit: I think the reason for this is that these players have extremely inflated numbers because of the modern NBA. What they do isn't hard, and most can easily be replaced with cheaper contracts. Typically, their job is to catch the ball on the pick-and-roll when the defense is already compromised and figure out how to score. That sounds important, and to a certain extent it is, but the deadliest pick-and-rolls in the modern NBA are either dominate (James-Davis) or are about that player making the right reads. Most NBA defenses would rather that guy try to score against helpside defense than make the pass to the corner three.
Another problem with these players is that they are too small to play at center, and typically they are unable to anchor a good defense even if they were good enough. That means you have to play a center next to them. If the center can't reliably stretch the defense, then that player can't score at as high of a level, and therefore his over impact on the game is mitigated. That's why, I think, the Hawks were willing to move on from Collins when they got Dedmon and Capella. If Collins could play defense, they wouldn't need either.)
That's besides the point. If the Warriors did draft a wing, it wouldn't be because they planned on playing all the small guys like the Rockets. You can almost never have to many quality wings in the modern NBA. Besides, I don't think that Wiggins' name in the starting lineup is exactly graven in stone. They need a defender. Wiggins is not that.
I think it's far more likely that they draft a wing who can contribute defensively right away, be a low usage player, and slowly develop into a solid offensive threat. Then, I think it's likely they try to trade Wiggins for a big. Wiggins is basically the new Monte Ellis, whom they traded for Bogut to start their ascent all those years ago.