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Re: Jaylen and Jayson lack of assists
« Reply #45 on: February 25, 2020, 12:02:28 PM »

Offline Evantime34

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They might not be great passers now, but they are better passers this year than they were the year before. it's pretty reasonable to expect this improvement to continue.

In general I would bet on Jaylen and Jayson improving as their career goes along since they have already shown improvements throughout their careers.
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Re: Jaylen and Jayson lack of assists
« Reply #46 on: February 25, 2020, 02:21:06 PM »

Offline tstorey_97

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This might be on here already, but, take a look:

Brown assist totals
2017 - 64
2018 - 114
2019 - 100
2020 - 155 (projected)

Tatum assist totals
2018 - 128
2019 - 168
2020 - 230 (projected)

For contrast, how about Marcus? He''s a guard, thus, will have lots of assists and? His game is wildly variable thus, so are his assist totals:
2016 - 185
2017 - 364
2018 - 259
2019 - 321
2020 - 350 (projected)

Tatum is going to get challenged by opposing defenses which will do a couple of things.

1) Continue his trend of passing to an open shooter more often.
2) Probably help his team win some more games and discourage more traps by opponents.

Brown's trend is improving also and will help his game by forcing opposing defenses to "pick their poison."

Kemba's assist total will be off about 20% this year because he plays on one of the most balanced offensive teams in the NBA.

Daniel Theis, an offensive force over the last 20 games:
2018 - 56 (935 minutes)
2019 - 68 (907 minutes)
2020 - 112 (1600 minutes/projected)

Theis has been gobbling up Kemba's missing point contribution.

Theis', last 4 games - 28 for 46 from the field and the refs are actually sending him to the line once in awhile:

In his last 5 starts he's had 20 free throw attempts.

Evidently, the Daniel Theis era has dawned in Boston...and not a moment too soon!

Now for the "bad" news.

Hayward assist totals
Utah - 296 (19.7 ppg) FTA - 477
Utah - 252 (21.9 ppg) FTA - 429
2019 - 244 (11.9 ppg) FTA - 187
2020 - 382 (17.4 ppg) FTA - 168

Hayward in Boston is about 47% from the field and 82% from the line. He needs to shoot the ball more....a lot more. He is as good a scorer as anyone in Green and the other guys are really good.

Conclusion:

Brown and Tatum could pass to open shooters more often and the trend might indicate that they are.

Hayward needs to stop passing to other shooters and score more often...he is a statistically better scorer than the guy's he is deferring to. In Utah he was averaging close to 400 free throw attempts a season.






Re: Jaylen and Jayson lack of assists
« Reply #47 on: February 25, 2020, 02:30:57 PM »

Offline LilRip

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Playmaking isnít their role right now. They need to score for us to win games. Iím glad theyíre both taking a bunch of shots, instead of deferring to guys like Rozier/Morris.
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Re: Jaylen and Jayson lack of assists
« Reply #48 on: February 25, 2020, 05:26:30 PM »

Offline mmmmm

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Now for the "bad" news.

Hayward assist totals
Utah - 296 (19.7 ppg) FTA - 477
Utah - 252 (21.9 ppg) FTA - 429
2019 - 244 (11.9 ppg) FTA - 187
2020 - 382 (17.4 ppg) FTA - 168

Hayward in Boston is about 47% from the field and 82% from the line. He needs to shoot the ball more....a lot more. He is as good a scorer as anyone in Green and the other guys are really good.

Conclusion:

Brown and Tatum could pass to open shooters more often and the trend might indicate that they are.

Hayward needs to stop passing to other shooters and score more often...he is a statistically better scorer than the guy's he is deferring to. In Utah he was averaging close to 400 free throw attempts a season.

On Hayward:  It ultimately comes down to point creation.  He's actually creating points (through either direct scoring or assists) at a very high rate, about 28.1 points per game (33.4 mpg).  In his All-Star season in Utah he created about 30.9 points per game (34.5 mpg).

So the difference is basically just under one made 3PT shot.  Or maybe 3 FTA that weren't drawn.

It's also notable that the percentage of his shots that are 'at the rim' is almost identical now to what it was then (about 23%) so his aggressiveness is good (And he's _finishing_ 'at rim' shots at the highest efficiency of his career -- over 75%!).  He doesn't seem to be getting to the line as much though.   That may be a case of just not getting the calls or it could be a case of more wide open lanes due to the space created within this offense.  Can't draw contact when there isn't a defender.

Given that he's finishing those 'at rim' shots at such a high percentage, I think it's very possible that the latter is a real factor.

Overall, considering he's doing that in slightly less minutes while turning the ball over less and grabbing a lot more rebounds -- and he's more efficient on the shots he is taking -- I'm personally extremely pleased with how Hayward is playing.

He's taking on more play-making / passing responsibility because given the scoring weapons around him, that's what this team needs.
« Last Edit: February 25, 2020, 05:31:50 PM by mmmmm »
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Re: Jaylen and Jayson lack of assists
« Reply #49 on: February 25, 2020, 06:32:48 PM »

Offline Rosco917

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I'm not sure the lack of passing is on Stevens, I think it's more of a maturity thing. 

I've heard it said on this very site that, "assists are over-rated?" :angel:

Yeah, like I said, IMO its a maturity thing.

Tatum is like a kid with the keys to a new car, its like he now belongs to the cool kids club, he's an all-star.

What will he end up is the question, a James Harden type? Or a Kevin Garnet type? Somewhere along the line hopefully he'll figure out that the way you win a ring is by getting the entire team involved. 

That's called Celtic basketball. Right now, yeah he needs to look the floor over before he makes up his mind to go one on one.
Yes, assists are overrated. Not all assists are created equally and great passes might not result in assists.

Nick Van Exel is a good example. A ballhog with good assist numbers.



Yeah, let's just turn the Celtics into the Harlem Globetrotters. Let's embrace who can dunk the best and one on one highlights.
Larry Bird, LeBron James and Magic Johnson were "ball hogs with good assist numbers."

Re: Jaylen and Jayson lack of assists
« Reply #50 on: February 25, 2020, 07:25:58 PM »

Offline gouki88

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I'm not sure the lack of passing is on Stevens, I think it's more of a maturity thing. 

I've heard it said on this very site that, "assists are over-rated?" :angel:

Yeah, like I said, IMO its a maturity thing.

Tatum is like a kid with the keys to a new car, its like he now belongs to the cool kids club, he's an all-star.

What will he end up is the question, a James Harden type? Or a Kevin Garnet type? Somewhere along the line hopefully he'll figure out that the way you win a ring is by getting the entire team involved. 

That's called Celtic basketball. Right now, yeah he needs to look the floor over before he makes up his mind to go one on one.
Yes, assists are overrated. Not all assists are created equally and great passes might not result in assists.

Nick Van Exel is a good example. A ballhog with good assist numbers.



Yeah, let's just turn the Celtics into the Harlem Globetrotters. Let's embrace who can dunk the best and one on one highlights.
Larry Bird, LeBron James and Magic Johnson were "ball hogs with good assist numbers."
That clearly wasnít the point at all. Bird is a funny one to bring up because his assist numbers (in my opinion) donít reflect his true passing ability
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Re: Jaylen and Jayson lack of assists
« Reply #51 on: February 25, 2020, 08:16:32 PM »

Offline moiso

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I'm not sure the lack of passing is on Stevens, I think it's more of a maturity thing. 

I've heard it said on this very site that, "assists are over-rated?" :angel:

Yeah, like I said, IMO its a maturity thing.

Tatum is like a kid with the keys to a new car, its like he now belongs to the cool kids club, he's an all-star.

What will he end up is the question, a James Harden type? Or a Kevin Garnet type? Somewhere along the line hopefully he'll figure out that the way you win a ring is by getting the entire team involved. 

That's called Celtic basketball. Right now, yeah he needs to look the floor over before he makes up his mind to go one on one.
Yes, assists are overrated. Not all assists are created equally and great passes might not result in assists.

Nick Van Exel is a good example. A ballhog with good assist numbers.
Another excellent example is John Stockton. His inability to pressure defences with his scoring as well as his conservative passing in general (he's more Rondo than say Nash or Magic in this regard) makes his assist numbers look significantly better than his actual passing prowess.
So you are saying fancy passers are better?  You must love Smart this year.
I dislike "fancy" passers who don't move the needle like Pete Maravich, so no. And what's wrong with Smart's passing? He's become a really good passer this year (obviously not Stockton level, but he throws a lot of high leverage passes for his role as a low usage combo guard).
Nothing wrong with Smart's passing but he has become a lot more flamboyant with his passes this year.  Sometimes choosing the difficult highlight pass over the simple one.  What's wrong with Stockton's passing?  I used to be in awe of it.  He made difficult passes look easy.  To me that is a good thing.

Re: Jaylen and Jayson lack of assists
« Reply #52 on: February 25, 2020, 10:11:16 PM »

Offline Somebody

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I'm not sure the lack of passing is on Stevens, I think it's more of a maturity thing. 

I've heard it said on this very site that, "assists are over-rated?" :angel:

Yeah, like I said, IMO its a maturity thing.

Tatum is like a kid with the keys to a new car, its like he now belongs to the cool kids club, he's an all-star.

What will he end up is the question, a James Harden type? Or a Kevin Garnet type? Somewhere along the line hopefully he'll figure out that the way you win a ring is by getting the entire team involved. 

That's called Celtic basketball. Right now, yeah he needs to look the floor over before he makes up his mind to go one on one.
Yes, assists are overrated. Not all assists are created equally and great passes might not result in assists.

Nick Van Exel is a good example. A ballhog with good assist numbers.
Another excellent example is John Stockton. His inability to pressure defences with his scoring as well as his conservative passing in general (he's more Rondo than say Nash or Magic in this regard) makes his assist numbers look significantly better than his actual passing prowess.
So you are saying fancy passers are better?  You must love Smart this year.
I dislike "fancy" passers who don't move the needle like Pete Maravich, so no. And what's wrong with Smart's passing? He's become a really good passer this year (obviously not Stockton level, but he throws a lot of high leverage passes for his role as a low usage combo guard).
Nothing wrong with Smart's passing but he has become a lot more flamboyant with his passes this year.  Sometimes choosing the difficult highlight pass over the simple one.  What's wrong with Stockton's passing?  I used to be in awe of it.  He made difficult passes look easy.  To me that is a good thing.
The main thing I like about Smart's passing this year isn't his flamboyance, but how aggressive he is in looking for high value passes. He's often trying to complete advanced passes that result in strong power plays or open layups, which is generally the most efficient shot in basketball. His flamboyance is a double edged sword - it allows him to manipulate defences to some degree, but it also results in some dumb TOs at times (it's still worth it at the end of the day though, throwing those high value passes far outweigh the occasional TO). He chooses the difficult pass because they're high value and move the needle on offence, not because he wants to show off. He's obviously not as good as Stockton, but this extra component to his passing probably makes him one of the best passers among low usage guards.

As for Stockton's passing, he was simply too conservative in his approach. I love fundamentally sound passing (Bird's passing is one of my favourites), but Stockton missed too many elite passes in favour of the more conservative, low to moderate value pass that doesn't result in easy, high value looks for his teammates. Obviously it wasn't like he couldn't hit the high value pass, but his rates pale in comparison to the finest passers of all time despite his GOAT level assist averages/totals. I certainly think he's overrated by his raw assist numbers even though he was a fine passer and an excellent third/fourth option.

« Last Edit: February 25, 2020, 10:16:17 PM by Somebody »
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Re: Jaylen and Jayson lack of assists
« Reply #53 on: February 26, 2020, 06:37:14 AM »

Offline moiso

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I'm not sure the lack of passing is on Stevens, I think it's more of a maturity thing. 

I've heard it said on this very site that, "assists are over-rated?" :angel:

Yeah, like I said, IMO its a maturity thing.

Tatum is like a kid with the keys to a new car, its like he now belongs to the cool kids club, he's an all-star.

What will he end up is the question, a James Harden type? Or a Kevin Garnet type? Somewhere along the line hopefully he'll figure out that the way you win a ring is by getting the entire team involved. 

That's called Celtic basketball. Right now, yeah he needs to look the floor over before he makes up his mind to go one on one.
Yes, assists are overrated. Not all assists are created equally and great passes might not result in assists.

Nick Van Exel is a good example. A ballhog with good assist numbers.
Another excellent example is John Stockton. His inability to pressure defences with his scoring as well as his conservative passing in general (he's more Rondo than say Nash or Magic in this regard) makes his assist numbers look significantly better than his actual passing prowess.
So you are saying fancy passers are better?  You must love Smart this year.
I dislike "fancy" passers who don't move the needle like Pete Maravich, so no. And what's wrong with Smart's passing? He's become a really good passer this year (obviously not Stockton level, but he throws a lot of high leverage passes for his role as a low usage combo guard).
Nothing wrong with Smart's passing but he has become a lot more flamboyant with his passes this year.  Sometimes choosing the difficult highlight pass over the simple one.  What's wrong with Stockton's passing?  I used to be in awe of it.  He made difficult passes look easy.  To me that is a good thing.
The main thing I like about Smart's passing this year isn't his flamboyance, but how aggressive he is in looking for high value passes. He's often trying to complete advanced passes that result in strong power plays or open layups, which is generally the most efficient shot in basketball. His flamboyance is a double edged sword - it allows him to manipulate defences to some degree, but it also results in some dumb TOs at times (it's still worth it at the end of the day though, throwing those high value passes far outweigh the occasional TO). He chooses the difficult pass because they're high value and move the needle on offence, not because he wants to show off. He's obviously not as good as Stockton, but this extra component to his passing probably makes him one of the best passers among low usage guards.

As for Stockton's passing, he was simply too conservative in his approach. I love fundamentally sound passing (Bird's passing is one of my favourites), but Stockton missed too many elite passes in favour of the more conservative, low to moderate value pass that doesn't result in easy, high value looks for his teammates. Obviously it wasn't like he couldn't hit the high value pass, but his rates pale in comparison to the finest passers of all time despite his GOAT level assist averages/totals. I certainly think he's overrated by his raw assist numbers even though he was a fine passer and an excellent third/fourth option.
I'm really not following you on Stockton.   I think you are underrating how difficult many of his passes really were.  The guy did not generally put the ball in his two hands to pass the ball like just about every NBA player has to do.  His hands were so big that he made most of his passes mid dribble with one hand which is neither fundamental nor conservative.  It kept him a step ahead of the defense and made it very difficult for the defense to react in a timely manner to his passes.  Stockton may have made passing look easy to you, but he completed tons of passes that no other player would even attempt. 

Also, I don't see Bird's passing as purely fundamentally solid.  He was one of the top passing magicians in NBA history.

Re: Jaylen and Jayson lack of assists
« Reply #54 on: February 26, 2020, 07:33:33 AM »

Offline Somebody

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I'm not sure the lack of passing is on Stevens, I think it's more of a maturity thing. 

I've heard it said on this very site that, "assists are over-rated?" :angel:

Yeah, like I said, IMO its a maturity thing.

Tatum is like a kid with the keys to a new car, its like he now belongs to the cool kids club, he's an all-star.

What will he end up is the question, a James Harden type? Or a Kevin Garnet type? Somewhere along the line hopefully he'll figure out that the way you win a ring is by getting the entire team involved. 

That's called Celtic basketball. Right now, yeah he needs to look the floor over before he makes up his mind to go one on one.
Yes, assists are overrated. Not all assists are created equally and great passes might not result in assists.

Nick Van Exel is a good example. A ballhog with good assist numbers.
Another excellent example is John Stockton. His inability to pressure defences with his scoring as well as his conservative passing in general (he's more Rondo than say Nash or Magic in this regard) makes his assist numbers look significantly better than his actual passing prowess.
So you are saying fancy passers are better?  You must love Smart this year.
I dislike "fancy" passers who don't move the needle like Pete Maravich, so no. And what's wrong with Smart's passing? He's become a really good passer this year (obviously not Stockton level, but he throws a lot of high leverage passes for his role as a low usage combo guard).
Nothing wrong with Smart's passing but he has become a lot more flamboyant with his passes this year.  Sometimes choosing the difficult highlight pass over the simple one.  What's wrong with Stockton's passing?  I used to be in awe of it.  He made difficult passes look easy.  To me that is a good thing.
The main thing I like about Smart's passing this year isn't his flamboyance, but how aggressive he is in looking for high value passes. He's often trying to complete advanced passes that result in strong power plays or open layups, which is generally the most efficient shot in basketball. His flamboyance is a double edged sword - it allows him to manipulate defences to some degree, but it also results in some dumb TOs at times (it's still worth it at the end of the day though, throwing those high value passes far outweigh the occasional TO). He chooses the difficult pass because they're high value and move the needle on offence, not because he wants to show off. He's obviously not as good as Stockton, but this extra component to his passing probably makes him one of the best passers among low usage guards.

As for Stockton's passing, he was simply too conservative in his approach. I love fundamentally sound passing (Bird's passing is one of my favourites), but Stockton missed too many elite passes in favour of the more conservative, low to moderate value pass that doesn't result in easy, high value looks for his teammates. Obviously it wasn't like he couldn't hit the high value pass, but his rates pale in comparison to the finest passers of all time despite his GOAT level assist averages/totals. I certainly think he's overrated by his raw assist numbers even though he was a fine passer and an excellent third/fourth option.
I'm really not following you on Stockton.   I think you are underrating how difficult many of his passes really were.  The guy did not generally put the ball in his two hands to pass the ball like just about every NBA player has to do.  His hands were so big that he made most of his passes mid dribble with one hand which is neither fundamental nor conservative.  It kept him a step ahead of the defense and made it very difficult for the defense to react in a timely manner to his passes.  Stockton may have made passing look easy to you, but he completed tons of passes that no other player would even attempt. 

Also, I don't see Bird's passing as purely fundamentally solid.  He was one of the top passing magicians in NBA history.
I'm not really following you either to be honest. My main criticism of Stockton's passing was that he missed too many high leverage passes (eg. passes to an open teammate for an easy layup) compared to other passing greats due to his conservative passing approach, not because his skills were conservative (even though I disagree with you calling his passing not being fundamentally sound, not every pass has to be with two hands or stationary to be called fundamental, and they certainly don't have to look or be easy). He was a very good passer who had incredible longevity, but his assist numbers would say that he was a GOAT level passer, which overrates how good he was.

Bird's passing wasn't fundamentally solid? Then whose passing was? Being one of the top passing magicians in NBA history doesn't mean that your passing is not fundamentally sound, you're acting like the term is an insult lol.
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Re: Jaylen and Jayson lack of assists
« Reply #55 on: February 26, 2020, 08:11:21 AM »

Offline Fafnir

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The Jazz had one of the very best offenses in the NBA for essentially Stockton's entire prime. You might not have liked the Jazz's offense fundamental conservatism, but knowing Jerry Sloan I'm sure he would have benched Stockton had he gotten too aggressive. The offense worked, and it worked very well for well over 10 years.

Re: Jaylen and Jayson lack of assists
« Reply #56 on: February 26, 2020, 09:28:34 AM »

Offline moiso

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I'm not sure the lack of passing is on Stevens, I think it's more of a maturity thing. 

I've heard it said on this very site that, "assists are over-rated?" :angel:

Yeah, like I said, IMO its a maturity thing.

Tatum is like a kid with the keys to a new car, its like he now belongs to the cool kids club, he's an all-star.

What will he end up is the question, a James Harden type? Or a Kevin Garnet type? Somewhere along the line hopefully he'll figure out that the way you win a ring is by getting the entire team involved. 

That's called Celtic basketball. Right now, yeah he needs to look the floor over before he makes up his mind to go one on one.
Yes, assists are overrated. Not all assists are created equally and great passes might not result in assists.

Nick Van Exel is a good example. A ballhog with good assist numbers.
Another excellent example is John Stockton. His inability to pressure defences with his scoring as well as his conservative passing in general (he's more Rondo than say Nash or Magic in this regard) makes his assist numbers look significantly better than his actual passing prowess.
So you are saying fancy passers are better?  You must love Smart this year.
I dislike "fancy" passers who don't move the needle like Pete Maravich, so no. And what's wrong with Smart's passing? He's become a really good passer this year (obviously not Stockton level, but he throws a lot of high leverage passes for his role as a low usage combo guard).
Nothing wrong with Smart's passing but he has become a lot more flamboyant with his passes this year.  Sometimes choosing the difficult highlight pass over the simple one.  What's wrong with Stockton's passing?  I used to be in awe of it.  He made difficult passes look easy.  To me that is a good thing.
The main thing I like about Smart's passing this year isn't his flamboyance, but how aggressive he is in looking for high value passes. He's often trying to complete advanced passes that result in strong power plays or open layups, which is generally the most efficient shot in basketball. His flamboyance is a double edged sword - it allows him to manipulate defences to some degree, but it also results in some dumb TOs at times (it's still worth it at the end of the day though, throwing those high value passes far outweigh the occasional TO). He chooses the difficult pass because they're high value and move the needle on offence, not because he wants to show off. He's obviously not as good as Stockton, but this extra component to his passing probably makes him one of the best passers among low usage guards.

As for Stockton's passing, he was simply too conservative in his approach. I love fundamentally sound passing (Bird's passing is one of my favourites), but Stockton missed too many elite passes in favour of the more conservative, low to moderate value pass that doesn't result in easy, high value looks for his teammates. Obviously it wasn't like he couldn't hit the high value pass, but his rates pale in comparison to the finest passers of all time despite his GOAT level assist averages/totals. I certainly think he's overrated by his raw assist numbers even though he was a fine passer and an excellent third/fourth option.
I'm really not following you on Stockton.   I think you are underrating how difficult many of his passes really were.  The guy did not generally put the ball in his two hands to pass the ball like just about every NBA player has to do.  His hands were so big that he made most of his passes mid dribble with one hand which is neither fundamental nor conservative.  It kept him a step ahead of the defense and made it very difficult for the defense to react in a timely manner to his passes.  Stockton may have made passing look easy to you, but he completed tons of passes that no other player would even attempt. 

Also, I don't see Bird's passing as purely fundamentally solid.  He was one of the top passing magicians in NBA history.
I'm not really following you either to be honest. My main criticism of Stockton's passing was that he missed too many high leverage passes (eg. passes to an open teammate for an easy layup) compared to other passing greats due to his conservative passing approach, not because his skills were conservative (even though I disagree with you calling his passing not being fundamentally sound, not every pass has to be with two hands or stationary to be called fundamental, and they certainly don't have to look or be easy). He was a very good passer who had incredible longevity, but his assist numbers would say that he was a GOAT level passer, which overrates how good he was.

Bird's passing wasn't fundamentally solid? Then whose passing was? Being one of the top passing magicians in NBA history doesn't mean that your passing is not fundamentally sound, you're acting like the term is an insult lol.
You act like you don't know what fundamental means- a central or primary rule on which something is based.  By definition, magician passes are not fundamental passes.  No coach teaches magician passes.

Also where do you think all of Stockton's assists came from?  He completed more difficult bounce passes off the dribble and through traffic for easy layups than any player in NBA history.  I guess you think he should have done better ::)