What's the smallest contract offer that would get Hayward to opt out?

[fairweatherfan]

Thinking about this in another thread - first off let's stipulate that tampering's going to happen and teams will tell Hayward's agent what they're willing to pay for his services before he decides on his player option. So he'll know what kind of contracts would be waiting for him in free agency.

Gordon's player option is about $34.2 million.  He's finishing his 10th season this year so he'd be eligible for a max that's 35% of the cap. Cap's projected at $116 million, which by my napkin math would mean a non-Celtics max for Gordon would start at $40.6 million and be about $183 million over 4 years.

The cap could be lower than that but obviously the max would still be more than enough $ for him to opt out, in the unlikely event anyone offers it. My question is, what's the smallest offer under that that would still get him to opt out and pass on the $34 million?

[nickagneta]

Could a 4 year $110 million contract do it? It's basically a 3 year $75 million extension for a guy that would be 30-33 years old in that time. Seems reasonable given his last three years.

[Surferdad]

I think there's only one person who can answer this question:  Gordon Hayward.  Even at that, I bet Gordon doesn't know yet either.

The issue is: Why is he opting out and taking less money?

[keevsnick]

Could a 4 year $110 million contract do it? It's basically a 3 year $75 million extension for a guy that would be 30-33 years old in that time. Seems reasonable given his last three years.

Thats basically Jaylens contract which  isnt bad given where each guy is now. That said giving Hayward that contract for the backside of his prime is a much bigger risk with a lot less upside than Jaylens contract for his pre/start of his prime.

It honestly might depends on how he plays the rest of the year, how he fits when we're healthy, how the team looks in the playoffs and whether he stays healthy.

[fairweatherfan]

I think there's only one person who can answer this question:  Gordon Hayward.  Even at that, I bet Gordon doesn't know yet either.

The issue is: Why is he opting out and taking less money?

He's not - he'd be (probably) taking less $ next year to lock in a bunch of money for the subsequent few years. It's basically like deferring next year's salary to get more of it long-term, but with a certain gamble built into it of what you'd get if you just played out the option.

Could a 4 year $110 million contract do it? It's basically a 3 year $75 million extension for a guy that would be 30-33 years old in that time. Seems reasonable given his last three years.

Thats basically Jaylens contract which  isnt bad given where each guy is now. That said giving Hayward that contract for the backside of his prime is a much bigger risk with a lot less upside than Jaylens contract for his pre/start of his prime.

Jaylen's contract is about what I thought of when I made the thread. Hard to turn locking another 9 figure deal down to play out one year and hope for better at age 30, even if the one year is at a higher salary.

I think in general we're underestimating the likelihood that he opts out. There will be few players of even his current ability in free agency this summer.

[mmmmm]

I think there's only one person who can answer this question:  Gordon Hayward.  Even at that, I bet Gordon doesn't know yet either.

The issue is: Why is he opting out and taking less money?

Speaking purely from a financial viewpoint:  He would opt out in order to take a contract that pays him more over the duration of the contract than he might expect to earn if he opted-in for next year and _then_ got a new contract.

So, lets assume he opted-in ($34M) and then became an FA in 2021.  He would be 31 years old and in the midst of a boom of competing free agents.  The 2021 summer is expected to have a lot of big name free agents.   Depending on how the rest of this an next years seasons go, it's hard to say how he will rank in that market and whether or not he could still command a 'max' contract.   There will be more teams with money, but a lot of it will go away fast to a lot of the big names expected to be available.   

His agent's job is to try to anticipate what his most likely as well as most pessimistic and optimistic scenarios would be.   But let's toss out a totally arbitrary number of say, ~$25M per over 3 years at that point as what he expects to be able to sign for.    That would mean that his expected 4-year earnings starting next year would be ~$109M.

So, to get him to opt-out, you would need to offer him more than that over that period.  For example, you could offer him a deal starting at $28M, with raises that drops his number for next year and gets him a total over that value total by the end of the 4 years.   There are other possible pay schedules.

The trick is trying to anticipate what his earning power might be as a FA in the summer of 2021 versus what he might get as a FA now, in the summer of 2020.   This coming summer is going to have almost no big name free agents.  Fewer teams with max cap room, but enough where someone likely would want him at a max, assuming he continues to play well.

I personally think that some team will offer Gordon a max offer this summer and that he will opt-out and sign a new multi-year.    I just don't know if that will be the Celtics.   I think the Cs can afford to do that and imho probably should do that.  I just don't know for certain that they will.

Also, while I believe his preference will be to stay, I don't think he should 'take a home-team discount'.  No player should be doing that (unless maybe if also given a no-trade clause).

[Birdman]

Doubt if Hayward will get a max contract anywhere..he has not been the same player after that injury plus he will be older of course

[tonydelk]

I don't see Gordon opting out.  He's just re-establishing his game and showing teams he's back.  If he opted out he'd most likely get 25-30 per year.  If he comes back and stays healthy he should get a chance at 30-35 per year for 4 years.  Last big contract he will sign.  His injuries this year have hurt because he's had 2 wasted years in Boston with this year being up and down due to injuries.

[fairweatherfan]

I don't see Gordon opting out.  He's just re-establishing his game and showing teams he's back.  If he opted out he'd most likely get 25-30 per year.  If he comes back and stays healthy he should get a chance at 30-35 per year for 4 years. Last big contract he will sign.  His injuries this year have hurt because he's had 2 wasted years in Boston with this year being up and down due to injuries.

This is the big calculation he and his people need to make. Problem is if he opted in and sustained another big injury (knock on wood) or just appeared worn down and less effective, his contracts in the next offseason in a much more competitive FA marker get a lot smaller and he loses tens of millions, or in a milder case, gets similar $ offers but only from crappy organizations (hello Knicks!).

Historically players tend to take the sure money over the gamble, though this is complicated a bit by the sure money for next year very likely being higher if he opts in. Remains to be seen which way he goes but it's a decision to watch.

[keevsnick]

I think there's only one person who can answer this question:  Gordon Hayward.  Even at that, I bet Gordon doesn't know yet either.

The issue is: Why is he opting out and taking less money?

Speaking purely from a financial viewpoint:  He would opt out in order to take a contract that pays him more over the duration of the contract than he might expect to earn if he opted-in for next year and _then_ got a new contract.

So, lets assume he opted-in ($34M) and then became an FA in 2021.  He would be 31 years old and in the midst of a boom of competing free agents.  The 2021 summer is expected to have a lot of big name free agents.   Depending on how the rest of this an next years seasons go, it's hard to say how he will rank in that market and whether or not he could still command a 'max' contract.   There will be more teams with money, but a lot of it will go away fast to a lot of the big names expected to be available.   

His agent's job is to try to anticipate what his most likely as well as most pessimistic and optimistic scenarios would be.   But let's toss out a totally arbitrary number of say, ~$25M per over 3 years at that point as what he expects to be able to sign for.    That would mean that his expected 4-year earnings starting next year would be ~$109M.

So, to get him to opt-out, you would need to offer him more than that over that period.  For example, you could offer him a deal starting at $28M, with raises that drops his number for next year and gets him a total over that value total by the end of the 4 years.   There are other possible pay schedules.

The trick is trying to anticipate what his earning power might be as a FA in the summer of 2021 versus what he might get as a FA now, in the summer of 2020.   This coming summer is going to have almost no big name free agents.  Fewer teams with max cap room, but enough where someone likely would want him at a max, assuming he continues to play well.

I personally think that some team will offer Gordon a max offer this summer and that he will opt-out and sign a new multi-year.    I just don't know if that will be the Celtics.   I think the Cs can afford to do that and imho probably should do that.  I just don't know for certain that they will.

Also, while I believe his preference will be to stay, I don't think he should 'take a home-team discount'.  No player should be doing that (unless maybe if also given a no-trade clause).

Problem is the teams with max space are all either bad/and or on a different timeline than Gordon. ATL, NYK, CLE, MEM, CHA are the expected max teams. Now maybe he would like to play with a 21 year old Trae Young  or a 20 year old Ja Morant, but are those teams tying up 35 million on a 30 year old with recent injury history? I dont know.

Also for those who talk about his max its worth noting he's a 10 year vet so his max starts at 35% of the salary cap, thats about 40 million his first year. He isnt getting that.

[mmmmm]

I think there's only one person who can answer this question:  Gordon Hayward.  Even at that, I bet Gordon doesn't know yet either.

The issue is: Why is he opting out and taking less money?

Speaking purely from a financial viewpoint:  He would opt out in order to take a contract that pays him more over the duration of the contract than he might expect to earn if he opted-in for next year and _then_ got a new contract.

So, lets assume he opted-in ($34M) and then became an FA in 2021.  He would be 31 years old and in the midst of a boom of competing free agents.  The 2021 summer is expected to have a lot of big name free agents.   Depending on how the rest of this an next years seasons go, it's hard to say how he will rank in that market and whether or not he could still command a 'max' contract.   There will be more teams with money, but a lot of it will go away fast to a lot of the big names expected to be available.   

His agent's job is to try to anticipate what his most likely as well as most pessimistic and optimistic scenarios would be.   But let's toss out a totally arbitrary number of say, ~$25M per over 3 years at that point as what he expects to be able to sign for.    That would mean that his expected 4-year earnings starting next year would be ~$109M.

So, to get him to opt-out, you would need to offer him more than that over that period.  For example, you could offer him a deal starting at $28M, with raises that drops his number for next year and gets him a total over that value total by the end of the 4 years.   There are other possible pay schedules.

The trick is trying to anticipate what his earning power might be as a FA in the summer of 2021 versus what he might get as a FA now, in the summer of 2020.   This coming summer is going to have almost no big name free agents.  Fewer teams with max cap room, but enough where someone likely would want him at a max, assuming he continues to play well.

I personally think that some team will offer Gordon a max offer this summer and that he will opt-out and sign a new multi-year.    I just don't know if that will be the Celtics.   I think the Cs can afford to do that and imho probably should do that.  I just don't know for certain that they will.

Also, while I believe his preference will be to stay, I don't think he should 'take a home-team discount'.  No player should be doing that (unless maybe if also given a no-trade clause).

Problem is the teams with max space are all either bad/and or on a different timeline than Gordon. ATL, NYK, CLE, MEM, CHA are the expected max teams. Now maybe he would like to play with a 21 year old Trae Young  or a 20 year old Ja Morant, but are those teams tying up 35 million on a 30 year old with recent injury history? I dont know.

Also for those who talk about his max its worth noting he's a 10 year vet so his max starts at 35% of the salary cap, thats about 40 million his first year. He isnt getting that.

Assuming he looks healthy when we reach this summer, I can definitely envision ATL, NYK or MEM being interested in signing Gordon.   ATL & MEM would do so because he is exactly the kind of veteran 'star' who would fit well with their young talent.  NYK would do it because they are fearless about through big money at any star they can, regardless of whether it makes sense.

Once you have more than one team in the bidding, that's all it takes to send the price up.

Every season, people end up shocked by how much money teams will throw at top free agents.   

Obviously all of the above is about the $$ and ignores intangible factors concerning what Gordon wants to do competitively or where he wants his family to live and so on.   I personally would love it if Gordon opted-out and took a nice long contract with Boston that started in the low-20s that gave him long-term security and kept him in green to his retirement.   I just am not holding my breath waiting and hoping for that to happen and am trying to be realistic about the $$ that might get thrown at him in such a FA-starved market.

[LilRip]

I don’t think he’s getting max $40m. But 30m? It’s not out of the realm of possibility. GH has been playing well and he’s definitely still got stuff in the tank. His game isn’t as explosive anymore but he seems like a guy who can be effective given his versatile skill set.

Plus this is likely his last big contract. I don’t know what’s going thru GH’s head but hey, Horford left last year and that was on no ones radar!

[LilRip]

I think there's only one person who can answer this question:  Gordon Hayward.  Even at that, I bet Gordon doesn't know yet either.

The issue is: Why is he opting out and taking less money?

Speaking purely from a financial viewpoint:  He would opt out in order to take a contract that pays him more over the duration of the contract than he might expect to earn if he opted-in for next year and _then_ got a new contract.

So, lets assume he opted-in ($34M) and then became an FA in 2021.  He would be 31 years old and in the midst of a boom of competing free agents.  The 2021 summer is expected to have a lot of big name free agents.   Depending on how the rest of this an next years seasons go, it's hard to say how he will rank in that market and whether or not he could still command a 'max' contract.   There will be more teams with money, but a lot of it will go away fast to a lot of the big names expected to be available.   

His agent's job is to try to anticipate what his most likely as well as most pessimistic and optimistic scenarios would be.   But let's toss out a totally arbitrary number of say, ~$25M per over 3 years at that point as what he expects to be able to sign for.    That would mean that his expected 4-year earnings starting next year would be ~$109M.

So, to get him to opt-out, you would need to offer him more than that over that period.  For example, you could offer him a deal starting at $28M, with raises that drops his number for next year and gets him a total over that value total by the end of the 4 years.   There are other possible pay schedules.

The trick is trying to anticipate what his earning power might be as a FA in the summer of 2021 versus what he might get as a FA now, in the summer of 2020.   This coming summer is going to have almost no big name free agents.  Fewer teams with max cap room, but enough where someone likely would want him at a max, assuming he continues to play well.

I personally think that some team will offer Gordon a max offer this summer and that he will opt-out and sign a new multi-year.    I just don't know if that will be the Celtics.   I think the Cs can afford to do that and imho probably should do that.  I just don't know for certain that they will.

Also, while I believe his preference will be to stay, I don't think he should 'take a home-team discount'.  No player should be doing that (unless maybe if also given a no-trade clause).

Problem is the teams with max space are all either bad/and or on a different timeline than Gordon. ATL, NYK, CLE, MEM, CHA are the expected max teams. Now maybe he would like to play with a 21 year old Trae Young  or a 20 year old Ja Morant, but are those teams tying up 35 million on a 30 year old with recent injury history? I dont know.

Also for those who talk about his max its worth noting he's a 10 year vet so his max starts at 35% of the salary cap, thats about 40 million his first year. He isnt getting that.

Assuming he looks healthy when we reach this summer, I can definitely envision ATL, NYK or MEM being interested in signing Gordon.   ATL & MEM would do so because he is exactly the kind of veteran 'star' who would fit well with their young talent.  NYK would do it because they are fearless about through big money at any star they can, regardless of whether it makes sense.

Once you have more than one team in the bidding, that's all it takes to send the price up.

Every season, people end up shocked by how much money teams will throw at top free agents.   

Obviously all of the above is about the $$ and ignores intangible factors concerning what Gordon wants to do competitively or where he wants his family to live and so on.   I personally would love it if Gordon opted-out and took a nice long contract with Boston that started in the low-20s that gave him long-term security and kept him in green to his retirement.   I just am not holding my breath waiting and hoping for that to happen and am trying to be realistic about the $$ that might get thrown at him in such a FA-starved market.

Agreed. I don’t buy too much into the whole “timeline” concept. For example, if we’re really building around Tatum and Brown, why sign Kemba? Or why was Philly even interested in old man Horford?

[keevsnick]

I think there's only one person who can answer this question:  Gordon Hayward.  Even at that, I bet Gordon doesn't know yet either.

The issue is: Why is he opting out and taking less money?

Speaking purely from a financial viewpoint:  He would opt out in order to take a contract that pays him more over the duration of the contract than he might expect to earn if he opted-in for next year and _then_ got a new contract.

So, lets assume he opted-in ($34M) and then became an FA in 2021.  He would be 31 years old and in the midst of a boom of competing free agents.  The 2021 summer is expected to have a lot of big name free agents.   Depending on how the rest of this an next years seasons go, it's hard to say how he will rank in that market and whether or not he could still command a 'max' contract.   There will be more teams with money, but a lot of it will go away fast to a lot of the big names expected to be available.   

His agent's job is to try to anticipate what his most likely as well as most pessimistic and optimistic scenarios would be.   But let's toss out a totally arbitrary number of say, ~$25M per over 3 years at that point as what he expects to be able to sign for.    That would mean that his expected 4-year earnings starting next year would be ~$109M.

So, to get him to opt-out, you would need to offer him more than that over that period.  For example, you could offer him a deal starting at $28M, with raises that drops his number for next year and gets him a total over that value total by the end of the 4 years.   There are other possible pay schedules.

The trick is trying to anticipate what his earning power might be as a FA in the summer of 2021 versus what he might get as a FA now, in the summer of 2020.   This coming summer is going to have almost no big name free agents.  Fewer teams with max cap room, but enough where someone likely would want him at a max, assuming he continues to play well.

I personally think that some team will offer Gordon a max offer this summer and that he will opt-out and sign a new multi-year.    I just don't know if that will be the Celtics.   I think the Cs can afford to do that and imho probably should do that.  I just don't know for certain that they will.

Also, while I believe his preference will be to stay, I don't think he should 'take a home-team discount'.  No player should be doing that (unless maybe if also given a no-trade clause).

Problem is the teams with max space are all either bad/and or on a different timeline than Gordon. ATL, NYK, CLE, MEM, CHA are the expected max teams. Now maybe he would like to play with a 21 year old Trae Young  or a 20 year old Ja Morant, but are those teams tying up 35 million on a 30 year old with recent injury history? I dont know.

Also for those who talk about his max its worth noting he's a 10 year vet so his max starts at 35% of the salary cap, thats about 40 million his first year. He isnt getting that.

Assuming he looks healthy when we reach this summer, I can definitely envision ATL, NYK or MEM being interested in signing Gordon.   ATL & MEM would do so because he is exactly the kind of veteran 'star' who would fit well with their young talent.  NYK would do it because they are fearless about through big money at any star they can, regardless of whether it makes sense.

Once you have more than one team in the bidding, that's all it takes to send the price up.

Every season, people end up shocked by how much money teams will throw at top free agents.   

Obviously all of the above is about the $$ and ignores intangible factors concerning what Gordon wants to do competitively or where he wants his family to live and so on.   I personally would love it if Gordon opted-out and took a nice long contract with Boston that started in the low-20s that gave him long-term security and kept him in green to his retirement.   I just am not holding my breath waiting and hoping for that to happen and am trying to be realistic about the $$ that might get thrown at him in such a FA-starved market.

Ehh maybe. I'm less convinced. Timelines matter, we've seen that with the Celtics. If you're paying a guy for his post prime 30-34 years but your best player will be 21-25 (pre prime) then you maybe very well be good during that period, but you run the risk that you have a 35 million a year player who isnt worth that contract tying up your books right as you young star is really emerging. Having Hayward is nice, but he probably makes you good enough as a young team that you arent getting premium draft picks anymore, and he makes it harder to bad salary in exchange for assets. He also has injury risk. There are certainly downsides.

That said someone like MEM probably does it just because they have SO MUCH cap space that they have to spend on something.

I guess where i'm at is this, for Jaylen money I'd resign him. For more than that I'd look to trade him now. And its entirely possible that Ainge may not know.

[NKY fan]

I kinda hope that if he opts out Memphis offers him the max and he goes there.
-He will make his $$
-Less expectations plus he gets to teach their young guys
-And we don’t have to overpay him and focus on building around the Js