Amazing how these are seemingly the most common assertions on this forum:
1) "No matter how good your team is, you can't win the championship without a top-5 player!"
2) "We need to trade our first round picks to fortify our bench if we want any hope to win a championship!"
It's very difficult to win a title without a top-5 player. It's been done only a handful of times in the last 20 seasons:
• 2011 Mavs (Dirk, Terry, Marion)
• 2008 Celtics (Pierce, KG, Ray)
• 2007 Spurs (Duncan, Parker, Ginobili)
• 2005 Spurs (Duncan, Parker, Ginobili)
• 2004 Pistons (Billups, Wallace boys)
• 1999 Spurs (Robinson, Duncan)
And some people might argue that Duncan was a top-5 player some of those seasons, which would make this list even smaller. It can be done, but it's really tough.
So over the last 20 years, 30% of titles were won without a top 5 guy on the roster. That is actually a significant statistical number. You kinda proved the point you are arguing against.
Although they’re wrong. TD and KG were top 5 guys, and there’s definitely an argument for Dirk. Playoff Dirk that year was a top 5 guy
Dirk finished 6th in MVP voting that year and there are strong arguments he was better than both Kobe and Rose (who actually won it). I don't think anyone behind him in voting was better, so if he wasn't top 5 he was close enough to count for this discussion.
In that case, there's only one champion in the last 20 years that didn't have a top-5 (or top-5
ish) player: the 2004 Pistons.
Amazing how these are seemingly the most common assertions on this forum:
1) "No matter how good your team is, you can't win the championship without a top-5 player!"
2) "We need to trade our first round picks to fortify our bench if we want any hope to win a championship!"
It's very difficult to win a title without a top-5 player. It's been done only a handful of times in the last 20 seasons:
• 2011 Mavs (Dirk, Terry, Marion)
• 2008 Celtics (Pierce, KG, Ray)
• 2007 Spurs (Duncan, Parker, Ginobili)
• 2005 Spurs (Duncan, Parker, Ginobili)
• 2004 Pistons (Billups, Wallace boys)
• 1999 Spurs (Robinson, Duncan)
And some people might argue that Duncan was a top-5 player some of those seasons, which would make this list even smaller. It can be done, but it's really tough.
So over the last 20 years, 30% of titles were won without a top 5 guy on the roster. That is actually a significant statistical number. You kinda proved the point you are arguing against.
Well some people disagreed with my classification of Duncan and KG as not top-5 guys, and I actually was unsure about them—I put my list together pretty quickly and didn't bother to think too much about who was top 5 those years. So if you remove those from my list, that leaves only two instances of the champ having no top-5 player, which would be only 10%. And the '90s were no different—from '90 through '98 (9 seasons), there was Jordan 6 times and Olajuwon twice.
But even if we say, for the sake of argument, it were closer to a 30% chance, those still aren't great odds. Any way you slice it, it's much easier to win a title if you have a top-5 player.
As always, which comes first? Does the title make the top 5 player or does the top 5 player make the title?
If Tatum went for 25-8-3-1-1 in the playoffs and the Cs won the title, would he be in the conversation?
I'm not saying he will do that. I just want to point out that the narrative normally shifts, but the narrative has very little to do with actually on court effectiveness.
That's a fair question. I think it's possible for a player to become a top-5 player during the season he wins his first title. For example, Kawhi was not a top-5 player during the 2013-14 regular season, but he was Finals MVP that year, so maybe that was the beginning of his run as a top-5 player? And maybe Tatum could do something similar this season.
In general, though, I think the player is already top-5 before leading a team to a title.