Celtics Playoff rotation

[CFAN38]

I posted this in the "This team needs shooting more than they need a center" thread but thought it was worth a separate discussion. 

Now that we are almost at the halfway point in the season and trade rumors are picking up I think its an appropriate time to start looking down the road to the playoffs. Coach Stevens has historically used a 8-9 man playoff rotation. With this team using the center by committee approach I suspect we will see a 9 man rotation. Looking at the current roster I am really high on the youth as long term contributors but question who is ready to contribute this year in the playoffs. 

I see this team as having 6 locks to play every playoff game (if healthy)

1 Kemba Walker
2 Jaylen Brown
3 Gordon Hayward
4 Jayson Tatum
5 Daniel Theis
6 Smart

After that..

Kanter,  would be a lock except he can be forced of the court based on match-ups
Wanamaker,  has been super solid but doesn't really move the needle (could be vital if any injuries to top 6 - theis)
G Williams, shoot will dictate playoff viability
Semi, gets minutes vs the Bucks
R Williams, wild card coming back healthy and producing could see him force his way in as the 7th guy


Looking at this roster with the playoffs in mind its clear how adding a player like Morris, Bertans, or Bjelica could be very important for a deep playoff run

[tstorey_97]

As of today you are right...

Kanter
Wanamaker
Semi

All veterans with playoff experience and no, they do not represent much in the way of offense.

Add a sprinkle of Grant and hopefully, Robert.

[PhoSita]

Kemba, Brown, Tatum, Hayward, Theis, Smart

These guys will get most of the minutes

Wanamaker, I expect will get regular time but not much.

Then pick among the following for spot minutes depending on matchups:

Semi, GRANT, Kanter, Timelord (if healthy)


Nobody else should see the floor unless it's a blowout.



In particular I would say that Kanter should probably not see the floor against a quality opponent unless it's the Sixers.  Anybody else will likely be able to pick and roll him right off the floor.



The ideal bench for this team would swap out Wanamaker, Semi, and Kanter for a VanVleet / Barea type guard, a PJ Tucker type wing, and a solid two-way big a la Amir Johnson circa 2015.

There's no realistic way for the Celts to revamp the bench like that, though.  Even so, I think they can go far in the playoffs, depending on matchups.

[Moranis]

I think Kanter is more of a lock to play in every game than Theis is.  Kanter is just a flat out better basketball player. 

[Jvalin]

If the playoffs started tomorrow:

PG: Kemba (32) - Smart (16)
SG: Brown (32) - Smart (16)
SF: Hayward (32) - Semi (14) - Brown (2)
PF: Tatum (34) - G. Williams (14)
C: Theis (28) - Kanter (20)

Tatum: 34 minutes
Brown: 34
Kemba: 32
Hayward: 32
Smart: 32
Theis: 28
Kanter: 20
G. Williams: 14
Semi: 14
SUM: 240 minutes

Having said that, I fully expect us to add at least one rotation player either via trade or via the buyout market.

[nickagneta]

I am willing to wait a while before making definitive decisions on a playoff roster. A lot of time still to figure out the final roster.

Grant Williams appears to have figured a bunch of things out and is playing great ball for a bench player. I think Kanter has also shown he is worthy of the 20 minutes a game he has been getting. Wanamaker had a bad December shooting the ball, which seems like an aberration given what he has done in a Celtic uniform up until December.

I think an upgrade without sacrificing the top 5 players is possible, though I am not sure how likely that will be other than whoever is available in the buyout market. But if it doesn't happen I am okay with a rotation for the playoffs of:

Kemba/Wanamaker
Brown/Smart
Hayward
Tatum/Grant
Theis/Kanter

Will it be enough? I hope so, but we will see.

[NKY fan]

I am willing to wait a while before making definitive decisions on a playoff roster. A lot of time still to figure out the final roster.

Grant Williams appears to have figured a bunch of things out and is playing great ball for a bench player. I think Kanter has also shown he is worthy of the 20 minutes a game he has been getting. Wanamaker had a bad December shooting the ball, which seems like an aberration given what he has done in a Celtic uniform up until December.

I think an upgrade without sacrificing the top 5 players is possible, though I am not sure how likely that will be other than whoever is available in the buyout market. But if it doesn't happen I am okay with a rotation for the playoffs of:

Kemba/Wanamaker
Brown/Smart
Hayward
Tatum/Grant
Theis/Kanter

Will it be enough? I hope so, but we will see.

Agree with your list but to me:
Add in Semi plus a buyout center ... remove wannamker and grant
The 8th and 9th player in the rotation should get 8-10 min max

[nickagneta]

I am willing to wait a while before making definitive decisions on a playoff roster. A lot of time still to figure out the final roster.

Grant Williams appears to have figured a bunch of things out and is playing great ball for a bench player. I think Kanter has also shown he is worthy of the 20 minutes a game he has been getting. Wanamaker had a bad December shooting the ball, which seems like an aberration given what he has done in a Celtic uniform up until December.

I think an upgrade without sacrificing the top 5 players is possible, though I am not sure how likely that will be other than whoever is available in the buyout market. But if it doesn't happen I am okay with a rotation for the playoffs of:

Kemba/Wanamaker
Brown/Smart
Hayward
Tatum/Grant
Theis/Kanter

Will it be enough? I hope so, but we will see.

Agree with your list but to me:
Add in Semi plus a buyout center ... remove wannamker and grant
The 8th and 9th player in the rotation should get 8-10 min max

I can understand possibly subbing in a buyout player for Wanamaker, unless that buyout player is exclusively a center. But, to this point, especially given the way Grant has been playing the last month or so, I prefer GWilliams over Semi. He is just a much better all around smarter and skilled player, IMHO. Maybe Semi gets some time against Giannis, but other than that, I would prefer Grant Williams over Ojeleye

[gouki88]

If the playoffs started tomorrow:

PG: Kemba (32) - Smart (16)
SG: Brown (32) - Smart (16)
SF: Hayward (32) - Semi (14) - Brown (2)
PF: Tatum (34) - G. Williams (14)
C: Theis (28) - Kanter (20)

Tatum: 34 minutes
Brown: 34
Kemba: 32
Hayward: 32
Smart: 32
Theis: 28
Kanter: 20
G. Williams: 14
Semi: 14
SUM: 240 minutes

Having said that, I fully expect us to add at least one rotation player either via trade or via the buyout market.

I agree with this rotation, but I hope Smart gets closer to 26 or so minutes, with Hayward and Kemba (alongside Brown and Tatum) all around the 35 minute mark.

[slamtheking]

I figure you can pretty much write the top 9 in ink for the playoffs (barring injury).
Starting 5, Smart, Kanter, GWill and Wanamaker.

after that, it'll be situational with Semi.

[PhoSita]

I think Kanter is more of a lock to play in every game than Theis is.  Kanter is just a flat out better basketball player.

Welp all I can really say is that if you think this it makes me wonder at your criteria for assessing what makes someone a "better basketball player."


Kanter is more productive in a raw sense, sure.  I'd much rather have Theis on the floor if I'm trying to win a close game.



Simply put, Kanter can't see the floor against any opposing lineup that can run an effective pick and roll.  The Celts are going to get killed in those minutes.  You can't allow that in a playoff series against a decent opponent.

[gouki88]

I think Kanter is more of a lock to play in every game than Theis is.  Kanter is just a flat out better basketball player.

Welp all I can really say is that if you think this it makes me wonder at your criteria for assessing what makes someone a "better basketball player."


Kanter is more productive in a raw sense, sure.  I'd much rather have Theis on the floor if I'm trying to win a close game.

I think that’s a bit of a harsh assessment of Kanter. He’s miles better as a rebounder (one of the best of the last decade) and he’s a better inside scorer. There are definitely lineups where Kanter offers more than Theis.

[Fierce1]

Playoff rotation won't be set until we know what happens at the trade deadline.

[PhoSita]

There are definitely lineups where Kanter offers more than Theis.

That may be the case if the opponent isn't equipped to run Kanter off the floor.

I think Philly may be one such matchup.

Against Miami, Milwaukee, Indiana, or Toronto, though?  I don't think the Celts are likely to be able to get away with playing Kanter very much.

[Fierce1]

There are definitely lineups where Kanter offers more than Theis.

That may be the case if the opponent isn't equipped to run Kanter off the floor.

I think Philly may be one such matchup.

Against Miami, Milwaukee, Indiana, or Toronto, though?  I don't think the Celts are likely to be able to get away with playing Kanter very much.

I agree.

You are spot on.

Every time the opposing team has lots of outside shooting, Kanter will be a liability as Kanter doesn't want to play defense on the perimeter.

Kanter can play defense inside the paint, it's outside the paint that Kanter's defense gets exposed.